The nice thing about intellectual honesty is that it’s OK to make mistakes. Especially when being suckered by history. As it turns out, what our Trading Model is forcing us into, in light of recent action, is a complete reassessment of where we are on the calendar in terms of economic replays of great/catastrophic historical events. But no, it doesn’t look like 2007-2008 was the all-time high as some readers have suggested.
Not that our postings on the replay of the Great Depression (since 1997) have been totally wrong: They have been useful thought tools and we’ve made a little money along the way.
Still, “as the wheel turns” we acquire new information, such that the future is becoming more clear before us every day.
So toward that end, to wrap up a fine year where the “model has been righter than the gut” we outline a new way of looking at the great rhyme of history. And as such, it offers an alternative that will be integrated into our outlooks going forward. And that outlook includes some genuinely outlandish possibilities.