Welcome to Happy-Talk Overshoot Territory! Maybe you didn’t notice over the past week, or two, but seems to us that when we look at one particular way to roll up a comparison of 1929 and present market conditions, there’s a whiff of “passing happy-talk peak.” Let me show you what I mean: See what’s missing??? … Read More
Since both of our reports next week will deal with charts only (holiday), I wanted to share some research that you’ll find very interesting. It’s all arisen out of my latest novel (about 50-pages into the writing part – but life intrudes – often!) “Ancient Children” is its title. The plot involves an exceptional aging … Read More
If you read the Monday column here, you should be impressed. When posted (ungodly early) I made a ridiculous forecast for the closing S&P Monday: “Although, if we could jump in a time machine and pop right to the close today, a 37-point decline in the S&P 500 would be a marvelous dart toss.” … Read More
Peering ahead at the day, we see that Gold is down about $16 bucks going into the U.S. open (no, not of golf!). This will place gold at $1,754.70 according to the Kitco charts. Let us do the math for you on how Ure’s Crazy Values Theory says things might work out today: The starting price … Read More
Some time back, I told you I was going on a buying binge for inexpensive Chinese “parking heaters.” These are similar to the Webasto and Espar units that have kept truckers warm for decades. Thing is, these are about 1/1oth the price. In fact, since my shop is part hardware store, off a compact enough shop to make … Read More
Can charts tell us what to expect this coming week? In several areas – cryptos, bonds, inflation, and war – we have concerns about what charts are telling us about the future. An odd mix of regression channels, understanding how to apply the logistic function and implications of Elliott wave developments matter now. This morning, … Read More
I lost money in a short position Thursday. My loss? $14. How disaster was avoided was the diligent use of stops. Usually of the “on quote” variety. The core idea being every trade starts off being about a 50-50 proposition. (See Burton Malkiel et. al A Random Walk Down Wall Street). Based on work by … Read More
I suppose we should begin this morning’s roll by unveiling the new Consumer Price report just out from Labor: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last … Read More
Election Day-After Limbo is a dandy time for this topic; voters have spoken and will change follow? (No) The general topic around here this week has been “How many people” are really needed in a company? There are several ways to approach the problem: Big picture, sampling of various companies by sector, and even building up … Read More
This being Election Day, we’re taking the unusual move of not talking about anything on the ballot – of is pretended to be so damn urgent that you have to vote for one clown, or another, who can’t change the Law of the Land single-handed, anyway. Have fun with that. We don’t know which one … Read More
There is a (sick) high art in Politics, American style. Non-Solution. Issues come up, are cast about as “major campaign issues” – planks in party platforms – and despite being there (in the case of abortion rights) for more than half a century, they just never seem to get solved. Mind you, I’m not the … Read More
A month or two back, Elaine mentioned that a couple of the stair treads on the short stairs (from the BBQ deck down to the shop walkway) were cracked and looking sketchy. This whole BBQ deck was a one-day build 10+ years ago. And those stairs were built with two risers, not three. So, maybe … Read More
When there is a “known” event of major magnitude on the way, markets often hint in advance what to expect. This is most often done with price changes. Markets running up ahead of an event are called “Buy the rumor” and the decline following is often labeled the “Sell the news” aspect. With (at best) … Read More