Dueling Data Again
Making Sense out of this ‘flipped out’ world is our fascination around here. Because at every turn, there are red flags the Bull market ignores.
After new economic data, the Dow futures were down half a percent, but with online fever going around, NASDAQ futures were up 8-10ths of a percent.
The largest dueling data point (to us) is Joe Wannabe’s “the people don’t deserve to know” whetherr he will pack the Supreme Court with leftist judges when Amy Coney Barrett is (likely) confirmed. The specter of “Presidente Harris” leading America to becoming the next Venezuela makes me sick. AOC for VP? Worker’s Paradise, comrades!
Economic data and markey performance does seem to add up given what’s being hyped as a 91% chance we get a Biden Administration. Which will be immediately superceded by the Harris Administration. That’s probably the real reason why Nasty Nancy has been talking-up the 25th Amendment so much. The “Kam Slam” and “Joe Blow” are predictable in short order.
Still, Optimism Continues
Rather remarkably – given that the liberal branch of the Anti-Trump Coup will shortly go after America, the Golden Goose, with a hatchet. The Animal Farm isn’t paying attention. In fairness, maybe Biden’s right: Maybe America doesn’t deserve to know anything – as they’re too stupid to understand what the hatchet is for.
Notwithstanding, our first note is the NFIB Small Business survey just out:
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Oct. 13, 2020) – The NFIB Optimism Index rose 3.8 points to 104.0 in September, a historically high reading. Nine of the 10 Index components improved and one declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased 2 points to 92, up from 75 in April.
“As parts of the country continue to open, small businesses are seeing some improvements in foot traffic and sales,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, some small businesses are still struggling financially to operate at full capacity while navigating state and local regulations and are uncertain about what will happen in the future.”
Other key findings include:
- Earnings trends over the past 3 months improved 13 points to a net negative 12% reporting higher earnings.
- Owners expecting better business conditions over the next 6 months improved 8 points to a net 32%.
- Real sales expectations in the next 3 months increased 5 points to a net 8%.
- Inventory investment plans over the next 3 to 6 months increased by 5 points to a net 11%.
- The percent of owners thinking it’s a good time to expand increased 1 point to 13%.
Included in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a net 23% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan to create new jobs in the next 3 months, up 2 points from the August report and 22 points above April’s report. However, 36% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings that they could not fill in the current period.”
It’s getting too late in the game for the left to attempt a take-down of the market, which we’ll get to in a moment.
First, Though: Cost of Living Data
This is where the rubber meets the road:
See how cheap oil is keeping the cost of living artificially low? Only thing going down in new data out this morning is energy. Food? Up 3.9% – which is why grocery shopping sucks. So does being on Social Security when food goes up 4% while bennies might not hit 2%. Energy though is now going up too…energy year-on-year is misleading as hell. In hyperinflation, we need to use 90 day to 6-month data. Older is irrelevant.
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (Begins our second fairytale!) Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The food index was unchanged, with an increase in the food away from home index offsetting a decline in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.8 percent in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after larger increases in July and August. The index for used cars and trucks rose 6.7 percent in September, its largest monthly increase since February 1969. The indexes for shelter, new vehicles, and recreation also increased in September. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and apparel were among those to decline over the month. ”
One factor that will keep driving prices higher is the declining value of the American Dollar. Which means we will have to fork-over more of our “made up money” to get real – useful – goods out of Asia.
Straightening Out Len
Long time reader Len, down in Oddstralia, persists in his skepticism and chalks up much of the stock market’s Bullish Rush Higher to financial chicanery.
Not c hicanery so much as cheap printing ink, brother!
In an attempt to help him along, we’ve run out numbers this morning that reveal with utter clarity how this stock market rally could have (I know, pass the crack pipe, right?) even more upside to run.
You see, Len can’t believe people tolerate their money being debased at nearly Weimar rates. Yet…here’s how it happens:
The important questions in economics are never answered publicly. Because if they were, everyone would be “in on the game” and the One Percent would have to (in effect) share which they are disinclined to do.
Nevertheless, as we will see in the Peoplenomics charts tomorrow, if M1 Rules, then we could go a bit higher this week (Friday close) and then decline. Or, if M2 Rules, we could rally out past Uranus (ahem…).
I continue frustrated by the unanswered “Which lever is more effective to jam up stocks? M1 or M2?” Either it’s because I’m a dolt (hmm…there is that...) or because some really greedy pricks aren’t going to let on. so, we’ll have to sort it out of the wreckage when the whole shitteree implodes.
Historical level screwings take time, you see. And the divisiveness (racial, political, economic) and the CV-19 lockdown have all been masterfully played (like soft music during sex) as the global screwing of regular people is played like a violin. Folks like Kamala and AOC (and other media celebs) are just marionettes with strings running to foreign capitals and the odd Hungarian...Working the divide, while the One Percent plays through.
Trump’s gone, then Biden goes in the Kam Slam, and several more friendly comrades will mount the Court. Liz Warren? OMG…High Court or AG…jeez… See it, yet?
Digital Mob Rule ends badly. But, people either forget the Tower Babel, or are too stupid to see the analogy. Too late to matter, though. We’ll just skulk in the woods.
This and That’s
Ruling from the Bench example! As we watch the Amy Coney Barrett inquisition today, here’s another example of the 9th Circus – arguably the most liberal court in the West – ruling Washington from afar: Trump barred from moving $3.6 billion from military to fund border wall construction.
Hot times ahead out West: Critical wildfire danger in California, new fires in Colorado.
Wars to Come watch: Taiwan Rejects China Spy Claims As ‘Creating Terror’.
Or, for something a little different in warring, try on Azerbaijan: 9 dead, 34 injured in Armenian shelling.
Cough, Sputter & Choke Dept: Europe Tightens Curbs; J&J Pauses Vaccine Trial.
The term “conspicuous omissions” could be the ‘phrase that pays’ as people continue trying to unravel the Taylor case: Grand juror: Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron’s ‘statements and actions’ in Breonna Taylor case remain a ‘mystery’. The AG doesn’t want his conduct outed.
Bread and Circuses: Prime Day
Amazon Prime Days are today and tomorrow. Even Time magazine makes space for this primo retail event: It’s Amazon Prime Day. Read This Before You Shop.
One reason is a lot of online publications can make oodles with commission paid links to Amazon’s specific deals. Which may explain why you’ll see things like a CNET story like It’s Amazon Prime Day. Read This Before You Shop or a Digtal Trends story like Best Prime Day Amazon Device deals 2020: Latest discounts.
Bumbling Through Online
Our relationship with Amazon has been good, but we’re in a bumpy patch right now.
Last week I ordered a Creality 10 V2 printer. What showed up was an Ender 3 – much smaller build area. With that dropped off at UPS to return, looking for the correct unit became a blood pressure event when the “so sorry” note popped up:
Part of the problem may be what I call “circular shipping.” Here’s how it works, reading from bottom to top:
As I read it, the package was shipped last week, arriving at Katy Texas Sunday.
It sat there until the USPS picked it up at 4:23 AM today. OK, Columbus Day…no Postal trucks.
But there is where it gets fuzzy: How did it leave the Amazon facility an hour and a half later? Computers could be slow…or the package may be in some kind of alt. universe tracking loop. Or, maybe, the package was just joyriding with the Post Office?
The only redeeming parts of this whole adventure? Besides driving into town to send the wrong unit back that was shipped the first time – was? 1) the reassurance that the RIGHT unit would be sent THIS time. And, 2), that this printer did not go on sale for Prime Days.
Ure’s Advice for the Paranoid: When you drop off a return, get a receipt that you turned the item over to the carrier! They own the problems then, not you.
Off to stare at the mailbox again…
Write when you get “ Primed, “