Optimism Good – CPI Not So Much

Dueling Data Again

Making Sense out of this ‘flipped out’ world is our fascination around here.  Because at every turn, there are red flags the Bull market ignores.

After new economic data, the Dow futures were down half a percent, but with online fever going around, NASDAQ futures were up 8-10ths of a percent.

The largest dueling data point (to us) is Joe Wannabe’s “the people don’t deserve to know” whetherr he will pack the Supreme Court with leftist judges when Amy Coney Barrett is (likely) confirmed.  The specter of “Presidente Harris” leading America to becoming the next Venezuela makes me sick.  AOC for VP?  Worker’s Paradise, comrades!

Economic data and markey performance does  seem to add up given what’s being hyped as a 91% chance we get a Biden Administration.   Which will be immediately superceded by the Harris Administration.  That’s probably the real reason why Nasty Nancy has been talking-up the 25th Amendment so much.  The “Kam Slam” and “Joe Blow” are predictable in short order.

Still, Optimism Continues

Rather remarkably – given that the liberal branch of the Anti-Trump Coup will shortly go after America, the Golden Goose, with a hatchet.  The  Animal Farm isn’t paying attention.  In fairness, maybe Biden’s right:  Maybe America doesn’t deserve to know anything – as they’re too stupid to understand what the hatchet is for.

Notwithstanding, our first note is the NFIB Small Business survey just out:

“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Oct. 13, 2020) – The NFIB Optimism Index rose 3.8 points to 104.0 in September, a historically high reading. Nine of the 10 Index components improved and one declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased 2 points to 92, up from 75 in April.

“As parts of the country continue to open, small businesses are seeing some improvements in foot traffic and sales,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, some small businesses are still struggling financially to operate at full capacity while navigating state and local regulations and are uncertain about what will happen in the future.”

Other key findings include:

    • Earnings trends over the past 3 months improved 13 points to a net negative 12% reporting higher earnings.
    • Owners expecting better business conditions over the next 6 months improved 8 points to a net 32%.
    • Real sales expectations in the next 3 months increased 5 points to a net 8%.
    • Inventory investment plans over the next 3 to 6 months increased by 5 points to a net 11%.
    • The percent of owners thinking it’s a good time to expand increased 1 point to 13%.

Included in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a net 23% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan to create new jobs in the next 3 months, up 2 points from the August report and 22 points above April’s report. However, 36% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings that they could not fill in the current period.”

It’s getting too late in the game for the left to attempt a take-down of the market, which we’ll get to in a moment.

First, Though:  Cost of Living Data

This is where the rubber meets the road: 

See how cheap oil is keeping the cost of living artificially low?  Only thing going down in new data out this morning is energy.  Food?  Up 3.9% – which is why grocery shopping sucks.  So does being on Social Security when food goes up 4% while bennies might not hit 2%.  Energy though is now going up too…energy year-on-year is misleading as hell.  In hyperinflation, we need to use 90 day to 6-month data.  Older is irrelevant.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  (Begins our second fairytale!)  Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The food index was unchanged, with an increase in the food away from home index offsetting a decline in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.8 percent in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2 percent. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September after larger increases in July and August. The index for used cars and trucks rose 6.7 percent in September, its largest monthly increase since February 1969. The indexes for shelter, new vehicles, and recreation also increased in September. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, and apparel were among those to decline over the month. ”

One factor that will keep driving prices higher is the declining value of the American Dollar.  Which means we will have to fork-over more of our “made up money” to get real – useful – goods out of Asia.

Straightening Out Len

Long time reader Len, down in Oddstralia, persists in his skepticism and chalks up much of the stock market’s Bullish Rush Higher to financial chicanery.  

Not c hicanery so much as cheap printing ink, brother!

In an attempt to help him along, we’ve run out numbers this morning that reveal with utter clarity how this stock market rally could have (I know, pass the crack pipe, right?) even more upside to run.

You see, Len can’t believe people tolerate their money being debased at nearly Weimar rates.  Yet…here’s how it happens:

The important questions in economics are never answered publicly Because if they were, everyone would be “in on the game” and the One Percent would have to (in effect) share which they are disinclined to do.

Nevertheless, as we will see in the Peoplenomics charts tomorrow, if M1 Rules, then we could go a bit higher this week (Friday close) and then decline.  Or, if M2 Rules, we could rally out past Uranus (ahem…).

I continue frustrated by the unanswered “Which lever is more effective to jam up stocks?  M1 or M2?”  Either it’s because I’m a dolt (hmm…there is that...)  or because some really greedy pricks aren’t going to let on.  so, we’ll have to sort it out of the wreckage when the whole shitteree implodes.

Historical level screwings take time, you see.  And the divisiveness (racial, political, economic) and the CV-19 lockdown have all been masterfully played (like soft music during sex) as the global screwing of regular people is played like a violin.  Folks like Kamala and AOC (and other media celebs) are just marionettes with strings running to foreign capitals and the odd Hungarian...Working the divide, while the One Percent plays through.

Trump’s gone, then Biden goes in the Kam Slam, and several more friendly comrades will mount the Court.  Liz Warren?  OMG…High Court or AG…jeez… See it, yet?

Digital Mob Rule ends badly.  But, people either forget the Tower Babel, or are too stupid to see the analogy.  Too late to matter, though.  We’ll just skulk in the woods.

This and That’s

Ruling from the Bench example!  As we watch the Amy Coney Barrett inquisition today, here’s another example of the 9th Circus – arguably the most liberal court in the West – ruling Washington from afar: Trump barred from moving $3.6 billion from military to fund border wall construction.

Hot times ahead out West: Critical wildfire danger in California, new fires in Colorado.

Wars to Come watch: Taiwan Rejects China Spy Claims As ‘Creating Terror’.

Or, for something a little different in warring, try on Azerbaijan: 9 dead, 34 injured in Armenian shelling.

Cough, Sputter & Choke Dept: Europe Tightens Curbs; J&J Pauses Vaccine Trial.

The term “conspicuous omissions” could be the ‘phrase that pays’ as people continue trying to unravel the Taylor case: Grand juror: Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron’s ‘statements and actions’ in Breonna Taylor case remain a ‘mystery’.  The AG doesn’t want his conduct outed.

Bread and Circuses: Prime Day

Amazon Prime Days are today and tomorrow.  Even Time magazine makes space for this primo retail event: It’s Amazon Prime Day. Read This Before You Shop.

One reason is a lot of online publications can make oodles with commission paid links to Amazon’s specific deals.  Which may explain why you’ll see things like a CNET story like It’s Amazon Prime Day. Read This Before You Shop or a Digtal Trends story like Best Prime Day Amazon Device deals 2020: Latest discounts.

Keep an eye on: E-commerce company Radial to hire 1,000 in South Jersey as Covid-19 pushes more holiday shopping online.

Bumbling Through Online

Our relationship with Amazon has been good, but we’re in a bumpy patch right now.

Last week I ordered a Creality 10 V2 printer.  What showed up was an Ender 3 – much smaller build area.  With that dropped off at UPS to return, looking for the correct unit became a blood pressure event when the “so sorry” note popped up:

Part of the problem may be what I call “circular shipping.”  Here’s how it works, reading from bottom to top:

As I read it, the package was shipped last week, arriving at Katy Texas Sunday.

It sat there until the USPS picked it up at 4:23 AM today.   OK, Columbus Day…no Postal trucks.

But there is where it gets fuzzy:  How did it leave the Amazon facility an hour and a half later?  Computers could be slow…or the package may be in some kind of alt. universe tracking loop.  Or, maybe, the package was just joyriding with the Post Office?

The only redeeming parts of this whole adventure?  Besides driving into town to send the wrong unit back that was shipped the first time – was? 1) the reassurance that the RIGHT unit would be sent THIS time.  And, 2), that this printer did not go on sale for Prime Days.

Ure’s Advice for the Paranoid:  When you drop off a return, get a receipt that you turned the item over to the carrier! They own the problems then, not you.

Off to stare at the mailbox again…

Write when you get “ Primed, “


38 thoughts on “Optimism Good – CPI Not So Much”

  1. give us a break George you and your permacow mates better think of better tales than that inflation lie .. money velocity collapsed as well .. so you have a good old pump and story session in the swamp .. plenty of covid yarns as well .. lift rates a 100 % that will lift prices . destroy everything but at least you will feel good

  2. thanks for the mention . one graph don’t make an economist .. and there are other economies apart from ussa like nobody shorts yen to buy stocks and gold . nite George

  3. I was looking for you to mention, George, something about the wave of insolvencies that is hitting now. I was wading through a first listen of Raoul Pal’s video last night and it was one of his main sources of concern going forward. Also, he’s had his position in BC for a while and is expecting it to be a big “winner”, much to my chagrin, as people will turn to it for no other reason than it’s the only game in town outside of precious metals. Talk about much ado about nothing which is what BC is, as you point out so often, but something being inflated with quickly depreciating dollars you probably won’t be able to get out of is a scenario befitting the upcoming Hallowe’en season.


  4. Best case, try to keep house and senate with split power. That way little will be done unless a matter of great urgency. Getting things done in Washington always means more money from me, more regulation, more debt for my children and generally more benefit to donors. One change I could get behind is to grab back power from the executive branch back to legislators no matter who is president. It is insane that role has absorbed so much power, that people actually fear the person becoming authoritarian. But chances are slim, as the house cannot even create and pass a yearly budget. Hopefully senate remains in republican control, as no matter how most are RINO, they might still have influence on the justices and try to ensure they have some understanding of our constitution.

  5. George, I thought a long long time about your tag line: “Write when you get rich.”

    So, I write the following:

    Today, 10/13/2020 7:09pm pst.


  6. I mean If nobody else is going to do it. I might as well. You have said that I believe, 2,020 times as of yesterday. It’s a mantra. That means it’s fueled with energy and waiting for deployment. I waited to see anyone else was going to take advantage of it for a long time. I was a gentleman and let everyone else see if they would grab the opportunity first.

    Nobody has.

    So, Today, October Thirteenth I’m the year of our Lord, two thousand and twenty at military time nineteen hundred and nine, I Andy get Rich.

    Thanks. I sure do appreciate the offer of generosity and kindness.


  7. Quick look surprised – precious metals PRICE is starting its “Monthly” 3rd Week of the Month – DECLINE.

    This is NOT Manipulation, per se, it is instead just “honest” PRICE action.

    The Price IS, no matta External events, Personal Emotions what ever – PRICE is alwayz Right and NEVER MANIPULATED.Hhahahahahahahaha

    – That would be ILLEAGAL and US Regulators (paid buy US taxpayer to Protect US taxpayers) would NEVER ALLOW such Blatant, Disgustingly Classless Behavior, nor would their Managers or Superiors.Hahahhahahahahah

    Hey Mr Narrator – why U not provide the WHOLE Saying, and just the first part ?? The whole saying goes ;

    Soros,obumma,clinton,church R;

    “Working the Divide
    Divide the Working”

    From the fogs of an ancient Battle..Nimrod the Rebellious – made a galactic router for connecting to Galactic Supra Netz.

    Someone did not “like” this Unauthorized Connection to the “GSN” – ” NO Galatic HyperSpace Internetz 4 U! was said to have been found Writ large in the Sands of Ancient Babylon.

    Kinda soundz like, whats that saying around here again ??? Oh Yeah !

    NO BTC 4 U! Knew it sounded familar….

    “Shes going DOWN Jefe, and theres nothing we can do to slow her down”


  8. For the WOO WOO Dept:If you divide 2020 by 666,you get 30330,Biden’s text number.

    The CPI also doesn’t take into effect negative product substitution.There’s some type of bottle and can shortage,leading stores to discontinue their own soda brands,carrying only the much more expensive national brands.Also,the problems at meat packing plants have discontinued bulk deals at discount stores,effectively raising the price of beef bologna from $3.50 per lb.to $5.40.

  9. George,
    -Perhaps an 8 – 10 hour wait in a voter line in the sun, overwhelmingly in D districts, is not considered voter suppression? On top of a 2 hour drive to drop off a ballot only in person?
    -And I see you’re complaining about deficit spending draining the value of the dollar again. Apparently it should be reserved only for good times when R’s are in exclusive control of the checkbook?
    -Could you Conservatives be any more creepy? Best, Mike.

    • 1) No – U Moron – it is not Suppression, it is called Logistics – here in the USA.

      2) Presactly – Conservative Republicans are the ONLY “RESPONSIBLE” people in the game.

      3) Yes – ohh definetely MOAR CREEPY – Take a look see at Pierre (muttromney) Defecto, and Paul(dumpsterpumper) Ryan -just for starters!

    • You will have to be a little more clear on who is responsible to that voting district. At least in Georgia each county has their own election commission and sets rules and process for how voting in those areas are set up and staffed, within the framework of State requirements. If those district are majority D, it is likely that election commission is also majority D.
      Here in Georgia the majority D districts always have complaints about how their voting progress. Just like most larger cities, anything the Ds run, is run into the ground and doesn’t meet their citizens needs. I think early voting runs from this week in many states up until the election, and it very limited in polling places. Seems like poor planning that people all attempt to vote the first two days, when they know the number of places are limited. Is this your first early voting rodeo?

      I complain about deficit spending all the time no matter the party that controls the house. I complain more when the house republicans do it, because they actually say they care (though take no actions to slow it). I expect democrats to spend lots, that is what they clearly say they will do. Also don’t forget all federal spending is initiated by the House. Keep that in mind when blaming the presidents for higher spending. The executive branch can only spend what is initiated by the house and approved by both house and senate and signed by the President.

      Best case is house and senate are held by different parties so they cannot agree on new spending priorities so there will be less of it. Like we have right now where Nancy wants 2.2T additional stimulus including 436Billion to poorly run states and cities, that will not prioritize their own spending. Senate has other priorities so nothing is done…GOOD.

    • I’ve stood in line for hours to vote on several occasions, including at early voting locations. It’s a small price to pay for living in a country where we can choose our own leaders. The sad thing is the total lack of lines at primary elections….I can usually walk right in and take care of business. Special interest groups always get their people in to vote in the primaries, and that’s why we end up with such creepy choices in the generals.

  10. The shipping issues are real. I can’t tell you how many times anything coming from the west coast of the US to S. Indiana gets in a time warp loop in Iowa that would make the Twilight Zone creators proud. I’ve had items get there, go to St Louis, and then back to Iowa again a couple more times, before heading to Cincinnati, and then finally getting to me. Weirdly entertaining to track my stuff and watch it go places I’ve never been. Unless I need it asap. Then it’s just frustrating enough to want to drive a to Des Moines to get my crap.

    • Twice in recent history I have had items from the east coast sent postal. They disappear from USPS tracking at the 3-day priority mail mark, only to surface a week later in Guam!. Whence they are dispatched back to the US west coast, and another seven days later are finally dispatched to here in Hawaii, where they arrive after another three days. I think the USPS is struggling with the cutback in airline flights for it’s postal shipping.

      • Sssshh!! Don’t let the R’s hear that or they will pick it up as a “reason” to bail out airlines – as soon as they do insider stock deals for all the folks on the hill…

      • Hank a few years ago a lady I know that worked as a stunt woman. She was anxious for some garden fresh food..
        I sent offa box with these delicious little watermelon and onions and tomatoes etc.. market perishable. Overnight shipping with ice and dry ice..
        It got there the next morning..she went together it..theycouldng find it..I called she went eight months went by.. then I get a call from the postmaster there.. what do you want us to do with this its stinking.. I said well it was perishable you should have given.it to her when she came in every day to get it..

    • You know what would be fun silvermitt… if someone could put a time lapse camera in a package just to get a glimpse of the journey its taken..

  11. A whunting we shall go – a whunting Wabbits we shall go..

    Does a Chickenbunny shit in the Woods ? Ya Think?

    Intelligence Corps Airplane goes down in Tennessee last week – Scalar Weapons in play?

    – U should see the “CRASH” site – No debris, no fire/scorch marks, No skid marks, prop driven airplane DROPS straight out of sky – STRAIGHT DOWN – and there were survivor (s). 18th Intelligence Corp = Space Force..hmmmm

    Our GREAT PRESIDENT – Donal John TRUMP Survived Another ASSASSINATION Attempt last week in CLEVELAND
    – That was the “nasty” most Virulent Strain of covert19 they have at the Ready, released thru Air System, 3 days after Debate attack, couple of Chi-Com “Floaters” pop up in San Diego?hmmmm

    New Old-Game – Need Help/Assistance with – Called NAME THAT DEMON.

    Not for the Faint of Heart – Who are the Evil Twins known to History as Baal & Moloch ?

    What are their real names ? Enki & Enil ? Not in Lesser Keys of Solomon – Anybody.

  12. “Economic data and markey performance does seem to add up given what’s being hyped as a 91% chance we get a Biden Administration. Which will be immediately superceded by the Harris Administration. ”

    Dam… I dont have the password saved for stews site on the phone for protected content. http://www.theageofdesilation.com
    There was a nostradamus prediction about an overthrown leader.. now you see everywhere where nasty wants the 25th.
    Instead of DJT… could the predictions be about ole sleepy..theres been enough talk about his mental capacity.. and why does nasty want to bring that up this close to an election. After spending billions trying to frame the president already.

  13. Comrades,

    Such shining optimism indeed as the NFIB earnings trend noted by Ure Sage above moved from a flat-lined -25% to -12%. One again may wish to go with two negatives equals a positive?

    Disaffected republicans and democrats alike will perhaps light a candle and celebrate today’s birthday of the Second Gentleman hopeful by marriage to would be VP Harris who selflessly placed his entertainment law career on hold to enter the electoral campaign fray already collaring one rally agitator who unmiked the candidate mid-drone. Can you imagine Dr. Jill jumping in the ring and taking down some bearded bumpkin stage interloper? Folks, if the main draw is a sleeper, the undercard is where it’s at. Steve Wilkos, are you listening?

  14. “Part of the problem may be what I call “circular shipping.” Here’s how it works, reading from bottom to top:
    As I read it, the package was shipped last week, arriving at Katy Texas Sunday.
    It sat there until the USPS picked it up at 4:23 AM today. OK, Columbus Day…no Postal trucks.
    But there is where it gets fuzzy: How did it leave the Amazon facility an hour and a half later? Computers could be slow…or the package may be in some kind of alt. universe tracking loop. ”

    OTFLMAO … Well at least I am not the only one frustraited by the USPS LOL….
    around here.. they had all the illegal refugees coming in.. and no body to hire them.. what I was told is that they were getting big pay jobs at the USPS so that they could be a benefit to society and have a job.. I wasn’t sure or believed that they would give jobs like that to people that couldn’t read our language or speak our language. especially since its almost impossible to get a job there is your a citizen of the USA.
    Then one day I had to make a trip in to the distribution center.. dam if I didn’t have trouble finding someone that spoke English and all the women had the scarves wrapped around their heads… LOL.. Now I am not saying that is what they did put illegal refugees in high paying huge benefit positions.. because I sure don’t know one way or another for sure.. but it sure looks fishy to me.. a family member sent off a letter to a relative twenty miles away.. it made it to japan and a few states.. before it came back..
    the thing I see is sure we have automatic sorters.. but the human development is to scoop it in the proper bags and put it in the proper spot on the conveyor to be put in the right trucks.. if you can’t read it spell it or no the difference between NYC and Texas.. well just makes sense its going to make several stops before it gets back to you..
    I watch the tracking numbers and see my mail go all over.. if you want it shipped to you.. go fed ex.. LOL LOL LOL

    • “How did it leave the Amazon facility an hour and a half later?”

      Onion Sets.. I had the exact same issue.. Amazon double shipped the order because the other one got lost.. just because I complained.. two months later the second order arrived..

  15. walks like a duck ,looks like a duck , quacks like a duck it is a duck .. its about the economy derrrr .. no jobs , no pay , truckloads of debt and ccccccccoooovvvvvvvidddddd .. the psyops was dumb .. nobody is buying it George .. here in oz .. heaps of groceries !!! prices reduced on everything ! inflation my butt , no sales gotta get em down to ship em out .. next story . forget currency or oil lies please

  16. and what about the big mac indicator George !!!! global! reliable .. love maccas and KFC . still get 9 pieces of KFC yum ! for 10.95 !!! only good American invention KFC !!

  17. I hope they don’t use isolation techniques on me here .. the boyz don’t like anyone telling the truth especially 25 year real old gold bulls not new gold cow sheep.. please George don’t be like the rest . I was trained for this .. so moriarty kern dagolio you can shove your isolation in your mouth .. the rear one .. plants

  18. of course optism is good .. living on handouts and broken businesses paying bonuses from the guv .. lift interest rates if they are so good . ccccccccccoooooooooooovvvvvvvvvviiiiiiiiiiiidddd .. ahhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaa

  19. “Our relationship with Amazon has been good, but we’re in a bumpy patch right now.” Schizophrenia rules supreme!! However, that’s an old man’s opinion ;-) because Amazon is a prime factor destroying society as we used to know it. But, to each their own — just cease complaining, please. ;-((

  20. I have avoided voting libertarian in recent years because the libertarians never win and when they do, they are so un-gang-like that they are hapless in the face of the ruthless partisan gang opposition. I am so angry at the bi-partisans, that I will be seriously considering libertarian candidates at the voting booth this season in selected races.

    For those of you in Texas rural areas who don’t want your property stolen for corporate brown shirt easements, you will want to consider voting for anyone rather than an R for the RR Commission.

    • “I have avoided voting libertarian in recent years because the libertarians never win and when they do, they are so un-gang-like that they are hapless in the face of the ruthless:”

      Unfortunately N… it DC doesn’t matter what party a politician belongs to . Theres enough in office and with fast money having an open season on newbies..
      It’s easy to buy their votes.. I will be totally up front I’d sell out at a fraction of the money they are giving the politicians in office..

  21. George, I’ve enjoyed for many years Ure publishing of the Aggregate index and the use of Elliott waves and chanels. You asked the question on M1/M2 money supply… “I continue frustrated by the unanswered “Which lever is more effective to jam up stocks? M1 or M2?”

    My thought is the money is mostly going to the high momentum tech stocks (like 5 of them), while the rest of the S&P stocks are flat or declining. So the whole market is judged by just these stocks, and the supposed wealth effect from those gains. Meantime Ure giving us a lovely picture from the Aggregate, and we all seem to agree the market is not sustainable… a big downturn should happen. I wouldn’t even know how to short, but my funds are in an IRA that doesn’t allow naked short buying. Won’t go there. But you have hinted at some loses in Bear bets when using the Aggregate.

    As long as we make believe using Wall Street Indexes (that are possibly rigged), then the big Lie continues and we all pretend we’re rich from stock gains. If that holds true through the election, then the president gets another term. But in the short time left, I don’t see the left tanking the big tech stocks… that probably happens after the election.

    So I believe the M1/M2 supply keeps the charade going for gains in the S&P which gives the illusion of prosperity long enough for probable re-election of the president. Then reality and the projections you’ve been expecting through the wonderfully drawn/explained Aggregate charts will bring the house of cards tumbling down.

    Would Ure charts show something like this as a possibility? Would love Ure thoughts on what I’m missing. Thanks for the effort you put in!

  22. Hey, folks, CV19 is a global scam. So is the stock market. So is just about everything we read and watch on MSM. Why do we keep playing as pawns in this scheme? Wait for it. Global depression, AI, G5, and the entire commodification of we humans in the giant stock market of human behavior trading, while inevitably, billions of us will die. Unless we stop playing this game, it’s over for most of us.

  23. Vroom vroom . While you were sleeping da faderland boyz are taking care of you day . Juiceing futures pumpin gold . Yeeba make you great forever. Da chosen race USSA

  24. interesting article that on zero hedge .. yep its just about top tier satanic now .. hard to trust anyone now if you aint a vege.. you and your money printing .. woopeee

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