Normally, when you come to U.S. National Holidays, there is a modest upward bias to market action. Whether it’s from people anticipating good times (oh, and MAYBE a beer or six), or whether it’s just that pessimism fades in bright sunlight (from Vitamin D going up?), we don’t know.
The reason, suggests a 2017 paper by Michael F. Holick, may lie in the conversion of 7-dehydrocholesterol to Vitamin D. Which gets us only part-way to a speculative “conclusion.”
For the rest, the link between depression and Vitamin D, we would need to consume this study by Parker, Brotchie, and Graham (2017): “Vitamin D and Depression” also available on PubMed.gov.
Which might go some distance toward explaining the “good weather” market rallies. But, how do you explain the bad weather, and cold season rallies?
For that answer, we turned to a 2015 American Journal of Addiction where a dandy article on Compulsive Buying (CB) by Muller, Mitchell and de Zwann, offered some critical insight:
“The maladaptive spending behavior is associated with serious psychological, social, occupational, and financial problems. Treatment-seeking patients with CB suffer from substantial psychiatric comorbidity (eg, anxiety and depressive mood disorders, compulsive hoarding, binge eating disorder). Representative surveys revealed prevalence estimates of CB between 6% and 7% and indicate that younger people are more prone to develop CB. Moreover, European data suggest an increase of CB in the adult population over the last 20 years.“
Thus, we begin to see the winter holidays as a “stimulus cluster” spurred by “Holiday spending” that might account for pre-holiday market ebullience:
- Vitamin D levels are down, so…
- Shopping levels go up…resulting in all sorts of chemical changes. Self-medication with credit cards?
- Which in turn, likely modifies financial judgements. Co-morbidity: advertising consumption.
Unfortunately, there are times when “holiday rallies” fail. Such as the “Slaughter of the Elves” over the Christmas-New Year period 2018 into 2019.
That would be a topic of further research. Except it’s Friday and Summer and 7-days from Play. A long way of advising “Short columns ahead!” We like to play, too…
“Fresh Data! Getch’er Fresh Data Here!”
Bureau of Economic Analysis has just tossed out it’s “Personal Income and Expenditure” data.
Talk about a subject ripe with psychiatric study potential! Let’s start with a “reasonableness check.” See if any of this passes your “sniff test.”
- Personal income decreased $874.2 billion (4.2 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $911.1 billion (4.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $994.5 billion (8.2 percent).
- Real DPI decreased 5.0 percent in May and Real PCE increased 8.1 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.
Let’s see: Lockdowns dig in and income goes down. Rocket Surgery, fo sho. (No University of Pennsylvania b-school needed.)
After the data, Dow futures were
useless down 125-points. But with the Fed “buying itself” in bonds,, maybe useless was right…
(Wonder why I pen the word “useless” so much? Go read the ZeroHedge piece “Futures Jerk Around Inexplicably In “Abysmally” Illiquid Markets” and see if you can figure it out.)
No doubt, our Peoplenomics.com subscribers will appreciate this morning more than most, since we’ve been in serial-rant mode about Making-Up-Money (MMT, or Marxist Monetary Theory). The “lying pricks of finance” prescribe making up money, without delving into the “foreign goods purchasing ramifications.” Which are HUGE, by the way. That’s why anything made overseas will be going moonward faster than the Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos competitions, shortly.
As happens at this point in longwave economic cycles on a repeating basis: new monetizations to rope the public into come along with predictable regularity.
For example, although Sperry & Hutchinson began S&H Green Stamps in 1896, they didn’t really get rolling until the Great Depression. Alabama.com has a good retrospective over here. Our point is that “deal-seeking” becomes manic at economic bottoms.
The Cointelegraph does a good job of covering “Experts Debate Bitcoin Price Volatility as $675M in BTC Options Expire.” The International Business Times calls it $1-billion worth of options, but a lot depends on which currency you’re converting around.
Unlike Bitcoins, S&H Green Stamps had some actual value – and they didn’t require a global (energy-sucking/wasting) infrastructure to operate. A wet tongue with a taste for mucilage and a stamp book.
Today, there are essentially no barriers to “Making Up Money” (as in all the cryptocons) and no barriers to Customer Loyalty Programs, Cash-Backs, Awards, and whatever half a billion programmers can dream up to virtualize. Which gets us to the dangers of virtualizing, but some other morning. We need to press on…
If Trump did this, he’d be a Nazi. But, it’s not when Biden would use executive powers to make people wear masks in public. Oh, no. Pass the double-standard TDS’ers.
Say, you don’t suppose being a former communist helps fight CV-19 doe you? Russia reports lowest daily new cases since April… and with Marxist everything on the rise here, is politics a co-morbidity factor? (Someone has to ask this stuff, you know! Especially since Coronavirus: US hits record high in daily cases. An “ugly” I would remind naysayers who haven’t taken out cautions to heart. What ever happened to “first do no harm” on the GOP side? Trump may be a “builder” but he missed the medical axiom, entirely.)
Die Kurze Hose
(German: “The Shorts.”)
Here’s CNN whining about “A generation hit by three soul-crushing crises.” More Generation Resilient” crap. Like we old people didn’t have, oh, Korea, Cold War, Vietnam, Sand Box Wars, HIV/AIDs, soaring cancer rates, heart attacks out the wazoo…. Suck it up kiddies, life’s a bitch and then you die. (Then as a final Fox-Uniform, you work your ass-off for 60-years, save a couple of shekels and then get locked-in so you can’t go party on the way out. Top that shit. Who’s to say greedy heirs aren’t colluding, huh?) Trick is to “shoot a good movie of your life” and move on to the Next Set.
More whiners? You bet. How about those p o o r little banktarbs? “The Fed’s ‘Harsh’ Stress Tests Hit Bank Stocks.” You bet! Let’s send that mean old Fed to Bully School…. FMTT, stupid is sure going around, ain’t it? All spread by social media, if you ask me…
(Jesus!) Don’t tell Obama (the Coal-Killer) about this: “Investor Breathes New Life Into Major Arctic Coal Project.” Hey…maybe they could find a board position for Slow Joe’s kid. What do you think? Meantime, underscores Obama et al want to hold us accountable for Gore’s climate scam but not Russia or China. Don’t start me on that…
Not to worry, war will be along soon enough as Trump’s China hawks are taking wing.
Urban Holiday Planner
Yes, my retirement is planned. Chock full of plans…
- July 3: A mercifully short column. Or not.
- July 4: Peoplenomics with charts only
- July 5: We’ll see what the Inspiration Muse offers – maybe (OK, likely) on our recent “grounding/earthing” experiments to see if that really reduces inflammation.
- July 6: Why wouldn’t we get a “Relief Rally?” Inflation is coming! Print me a truck load of hunsky’s! Unless something really bad happens over the long weekend? (Thinking quakes, mainly, because of the second eclipse…)
This weekend, along with coming holiday, we will be safely ensconced out in here the woods.
Our major tasks planned over the 4th include calibrating 9 MM subsonic rounds for drop-at-range. Along with continuing to design the perfect OMWS (old man work shop). Speaking of…
Latest addition to the shop, is a used Craftsman 10-inch radial arm saw. Picked it up (a steal!) for $50-bucks.
As usual, a wonderful story to be told: Seems a fellow, about my age, and a very successful artist from here in East Texas, decided to build a shop out back of his place. Did a first-rate job: He’s got a good table saw, though, and didn’t see the need for the radial saw. So out it went – into the back of – and down the road – in Ure’s old pick ’em-up truck.
Ure – who despises shop-tool set-up time almost as much as deficit spending and crooked, debt-saturated, made up federal money scams – will have a dandy (second) dado-monster on which I can see the cut lines! (and fingers)
Here’s what’s interesting: Turns out the seller is also a writer (though he does amazing 3D art (and builds DDG (drop-dead gorgeous) clocks. Onto Ure’s (never-shrinking, always-expanding) agenda is reading his (A. Armstrong’s his name) “Ghosts of Delacroix House” which can be found here on Amazon.
Point? Um...if you read last Sunday’s piece (about how we’re all directors in our own Life’s Movie – here) it’s just marvelous to enjoy the people who Universe offers as “walk-on” performers in our lives. Dandy scene!
It also gave me a chance to articulate many thoughts about the ideal Renaissance Maker’s Shop. Which we’ll get into on Sunday in the “Maker’s Corner” discussion.
Which, usefully, will come just in time for you to run out to Home Despots or Lowdes before the three-day weekend and pick up more tools than you’ll ever be able to lie your way out of with the missus….
On that confessional, rain swirls overhead again, this morning. Before gravity fixes that, I need to “sow some wild oats” in a manner of speaking.
Well, Scotts grass seed. Onto what may be a playable 9-holes in 2021. I mean, that’s one way to structure a tree farm, right?
After that, a little screwing. IoW: finishing the assembly of the new “industrial” built-in shop vac… Which miraculously, Harbor Freight sent two of. Which, like a damn idiot, I called and told them to come get the free one since I hadn’t ordered or paid for #2…Still, gee, thanks for the gesture. ‘Mazingly, they also sent me 20-bucks worth of gift cards for my trouble and honesty. Crime pays better, but this is a start.
I took all of this as a “sign from The Big Studio/Chief Director” that something important will eventually come from the shop…which is why things have almost magically appeared for it. Like this saw deal… What that might be? Who the hell knows? Just Universe seems to be populating my life with enough tools to set up a mid-sized manufacturing company just steps away from all these servers. Being a tool-slut, I’m sitting back watching agawk…
For now, like they say, “No rest for the wicked.” A sign I must have been very, very wicked once-upon a time….
Write when you get rich,