Thursday Data Festival!!! Which we will jump into in a moment (there’s a lot of data today).
First, we want to arrange the data plate that may leave you grabbing at the breakfast table. To hold on for a “white knuckle experience.” Deep breath, first… [aauuummmm manu padme auumm] (This is the Texas spelling…)
Irwin Allen Economics
Got the Dramamine down?
- We are not the only ones to pick up on the chance that this is 1929 being replayed. See, for example, Annie Lowrey’s piece in The Atlantic: “The Second Great Depression — At least four major factors are terrifying economists and weighing on the recovery.“
- Second point is “The Virus” where it’s a given that the globe will sail through 10-million cases before the weekend is out. And half a million dead will have been stacked-up worldwide. While it’s possible that some U.S. deaths were over-zealously labeled CV-19 (financial incentives to healthcare providers work wonders) it’s also a given that China outright lied about their death counts in Wuhan based on videos leaked showing alleged mobile crematoriums.
- Third is the shocking admission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that they are dramatically lowering their look-ahead guidance. Worse, in a “No shit, Sherlock” moment they start sounding like our recent comments on point: “The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.”
But, whether or not the market is running a giant “con” based on the Fed’s hopefully momentary use of Marxist economics (Making Up Money, peddled as “Modern Economic Theory” of the sort that kept Robert Mugabe in power in Zimbabwe to the empty-headed “social media swilling dunces” in America, remains to be seen.
Charting the Crack-Up Rhyme
What is pretty clear in our work is that we have a stock market that is facing moral hazard at every turn, now. Especially when overlaid atop the 1929 experience:
Pay special attention to the horizontal black arrows and the horizontal red bars.
The two green areas (left circle, right oval) show where we compare modern times with old.
The short black arrow (top) is the length of time ( t ) from the initial decline bottom in 1929 to tyhe Wave II peak before descending into 10-years of financail hell.
The longer black arrow (bottom) is the obviously extended time ( t ) which the Fed can buy via massive infusions of made-up-money plus directly buying bonds and bond ETF’s – exchange traded funds.
The top red bar is the peak both markets reached. For the Modern Bulls to claim we’re off and running toward new all-time highs – the market needs to progress above the upper red bar.
Conversely, for Bears to “win the pennant” we need to sink convincingly under the red bar. For now, we’re stuck in the middle a no man’s land. (Oops! A “no persons land!” Jesus, PCB (political correctness bullshit) demands writing focus on sexual minutia over the more important big ideas, doesn’t it? Its all designed to change our writing styles to post-Cultural Revolution-like self-censorship, but that’s just an aside…)
The Data Festival
OMG…more data than Clinton had excuses…Let’s start with Durable Goods
International Trade, Wholesale, Retail Inventories
With inventories down, expect there to be a bigger trade deficit to come and sell-though continues to outstrip imports.
Weekly Jobless Claims
What could possibly top this morning other than the ongoing fairytale about personal income and savings rates tomorrow?
Meanwhile, Dow futures down about 250 on data driven deep disappointment (DDDD).
In Your Shorts
If being a hard-nosed neoclassicist on economics isn’t enough of a curse, there’s also the gallows humor that has tainted my lifetime. No that gallows humor is bad, per set. It’s better than drinking to deaden the news reporters revulsion for how sick large portions of life remain. It’s also marginally better than going off a half-cocked liberalista propagandist, too. Though this is way more popular nowadays…
Buffer state politics: Belarus President Accuses Russia, Poland of Election Interference. Hey! Let’s lend them the Eastern District of NY so they can white-wash it, huh? How about a two-fer – We’ll throw in Lisa, Peter, and Robert Mueller…what do you say?
Into the Liberal Blender! In case you’re not following: Coronavirus morphed from a medical and military issue into a political issue. Then a racial issue (more on that in a sec.) And now? Why, it’s becoming a sexual issue! COVID-surviving MD denied chance to donate plasma because he’s gay.
And it’s a mathematical issue: perhaps holding new meaning to the BSOD as The world’s fastest supercomputer is hunting for coronavirus cures. (I’ve washed my hands of this story for the umpteenth time.. at 30 seconds per scrub.)
Real Equality? But Not for All…
Notice who blocked the first police improvement bill in the Senate? Yep – democrats. They are glory-grabbling grandstanders looking to promote bankrupt Marxist doctrine. Don’t get your hopes up when you read House to vote on police reform bill named in honor of George Floyd. Dem’s will likely load it up with enough special carve-out crap inside a common trick) to make it unsignable. When it gets vetoed (*because of the garbage and pet giveaways of the lefty’s) they can call it racism. See how this works?
Government-sponsored racism in Oregon has been called-out we see. And read how CNN positions it – laughable lefty’s in action! “People of color won’t be required to wear masks in an Oregon county.” Seems to us like the (white-shamed) Lincoln County Oregon political class can’t differentiate between EQUALITY (equal protection and duties for ALL) under the Law and RACISM regardless of their justifications. Useful to remember: Liberals can justify anything. And OU can’t question ’em or you’re a (fill in the blank).
Read this absurdity as the county ponders a roll-back its end-run around Equal Protection statues:
“We are shocked and appalled at the volume of horrifically racist commentary we have received regarding this policy exception. The vitriol that county leadership, staff, and community partners, have been subjected to is unprecedented. All this only a month after George Floyd’s death.
The expressions of racism regarding the exception has created a ripple of fear throughout our communities of color. The very policy meant to protect them, is now making them a target for further discrimination and harassment.”
So whites don’t matter? WTF people? Equal means WHAT????
The term Libtards are pressing Reverse Racism. Treating face-covering differently by skin color – IS government sponsored racism “on its face.” Were you stupid enough to think laws based on color shouldn’t exist? OMG has you missed your shaming sessions?
We’re saddened that these Oregoons made a medical issue into racial one in the first place. But then Mush-headed liberalism is nothing new to Oregon, is it? Which reminds me…
Marxism’s Murdered Millions
How many people did old Joe Stalin put to death in the Soviet gun-point collectivization drive ahead of WW II? Most historians figure Stalin killed more than Hitler. By a LOT. So we found it interesting that Russian Communist Unveils Stalin Statue on WWII Anniversary. Stalin killed somewhere between 8 and 61 million people ( a big spread in the data). Hitler finished second at 6-million. Winners write history, though, not losers. Stalin should have swung.
Dictators like Stalin can never be trusted and if we don’t GTFU, that’s where America goes under Digital Mob Rule and Social Sedition.
While we staunchly oppose the barricaders in America, how about funding Antifa opening a Russian division and see how it works out? Here’s the perfect statue to begin toppling… Bet they have some in Cuba and Zimbabwe that could come down, too. Inconvenient, there is it?
LOST CAUSES: They’re STILL selling climate change: What is the UV Index and why could it break UK records? Moreover, who cares? If we can’t get along, climate will be the least of our worries.
Off to ride’em lawnmower…. Oh, and my High Photon Diet has me down 10-pounds now…has it eaten my brain? I feel like a husky-varmint on the orange rider…
Write when you get rich,