The whole “investment world” is Mad as a Hatter. Worse.
I would have figured on a day when the price of Oil was up better than five percent, the Supreme Court leaking “secrets“, more money coming for war in Nukraine, not to mention Buyedem proposing the largest family-busting income tax hike since LBJ wending its way through Crooksville on the Potomac, that the market should have been on its ass.
Shows you what I know about market manipulations, doesn’t it? Keynes “Can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” quip from the last Depression still stings.
Data Day: Job Cuts – UI Filers
Challenger Job Cut Report is just out:
“U.S.-based employers announced 24,286 cuts in April, a 14% increase from the 21,387 announced in March and up 6% from the 22,913 cuts announced in April 2021. It is the first time this year job cuts were higher than the corresponding month a year earlier, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
And there’s weekly new unemployment filings:
Immediate comment on both numbers is simple: Everyone who wants to work probably already has a job. And they want to keep it. Everyone else is happy at the new “Dole Balance.”
Which is where people “take the dole” (letting us real taxpayers pay for their sloth) while keeping cash side-hustle money. Winkers and their crypto’s.
Brent Crude was running $111.79 while West Texas was around $109. Gold popped back up to $1,900 and change.
A dollar printed in 1913 is worth 3.65 CENTS of purchasing power today. Prices don’t go up. Your money is just watered down, Plebe! Chiselers learned long ago if done slowly enough, people won’t catch the con.
Vote ’em all out as soon as possible. Both parties.
How the “Real Economy” is Doing
From this week’s traffic report from the Association of American Railroads:
“U.S. rail traffic in April had something for everyone,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “Optimists can point to autos, chemicals, and scrap, all of which had solid gains. Pessimists can point to grain, intermodal, and petroleum products, which saw significant declines. In the middle are carloads of industrial products — an aggregation of seven key carload categories — which fell slightly in April, consistent with the most recent GDP numbers.”
Excluding coal, carloads were down 29,329 carloads, or 4.2 percent, in April 2022 from April 2021. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were down 13,512 carloads, or 2.3 percent.”
“Build Back When?” Joe? When “fake stimulus” begins with your Open Border “kill 42” con job? FMTT. More cops, more social workers, higher taxes – absent real, thoughtful lives, government fallback is same-old shit as always. Fake polarization, crisis, and threats,. How to con 7.8 billion inmate in a nuthouse.
Ure’s Discontinuity Watch
Game Setup: We’ve been watching inter-market arbitrage for several years now. Look at the “whole world” as one economic index. Then, take the US Aggregate Index as a second.
Lay it our in percentages and change over time.
What we see is how the US market oftentimes leads the rest of world (RoW) as the G20 uses its biggest stick to bash things toward a contrived outcome. Which gets to looking like this:
What we think of as an indicator of “discontinuity” happens when the Global Aggregate runs off without its counterpart – the U.S. Aggregate – closely in tow.
Right side of the chart, we see how the US has blown upward and is well above trendline of the Global Aggregate. Four days until the big calendar event from WW II where Russia beat the Nazis. Could something big, ugly, and mushroom shaped lurk ahead?
Market action (if you day or swing trade) has become very choppy. There are 120-point (and larger) swings in just seconds in the Dow down in the data at the 20-second level. Dow will be up 800 one refresh, then only up 650 on the next. Then you refresh again and now the Dow’s up 820…
My consigliere and I have been pondering this. He chalks it up to a lot of mid sized players being screwed by the outsized rate problem. Like when rate lock-ins are promised by big mortgage outfits. They were ready to hedge for a point and a half, maybe, but a 2 and a half point jump? Someone’s likely getting burned. Or, at least bent-over.
My (competing) theory is the Big Boyz are unloading at a furious rate from long positions. Drive the prices up and then sell big blocks off to lighten positions as risk really is (reading commodity charts and such) increasing at furious rates.
We won’t know any time soon; a lot of this parcels out in dribs and drabs over time. One thing that’s clear is it should be sooner than later:
In fact at click time, Dow futures were down 175 and Europe was broadly higher. Meet at the trend, friend? Think Arby’s. (arbitrage for newbies)
Kiss My Trend Line
Thanks to a rate increase Wednesday (and the wildly misconstrued “I won’t do bigger raises, we think, for now, asterisks…” of Chair Powell the market has blown to the top of our trend line:
Maybe another hundred higher (Dow component) and a tad higher in techs, but we are either there, or close enough to throw grenades at the Bulls from.
Laughably, this CNBC headline casts “the fix” as a “relief rally” (Stock futures fall after Fed induced relief rally) Except, unlike the S&M crowd, this is NOT the “It feels so good when you stop hurting me…” part. There are more increases coming. What you may be seeing is a rollover – from the Strong Hands to Weak. If you buy in at these levels, good luck.
The U.S. Merging with Mexico?
While the Drooler in Chief is spending your tax money on Nukraine arms and buying cell phones, housing, and free transport to cities all over America in the dead of night for illegal border-jumpers, while ignoring RealID requirements for them, it occurs to us that after 50+ years of Low Intensity Conflict with Mexico, the Idiot-in-Chief (and namd of sexually confused followers) may have a grand design in play: merging Mexico and the US.
The story on NPR hints to us this is the long-term plan. “The Story Behind Cinco de Mayo and Mexico’s Fight for Independence” begins with the false premise “Does history have a border?”
Anyone with even a pawn shop IQ would see the sham and propaganda bent here: HISTORY dimensions as a continuum, old to new, arrow of time, and all that. When liberal media begin to “mix units” pretending there might be borders on historical events, seems clear where the Subliminal Orwell’s are driving. “Oh, those poor lawbreakers…let’s let them all in…” Ukrainian refugees waiting at Mexico camp urge US to open doors | US-Mexico border.
And ignore stories like In Mexico, One Cartel Is Cleared, but Others Storm In – The New York Times (nytimes.com). Cancun, Chicago…what’s the difference, eh?
More than enough reason to pick up some frozen lemonade and a fifth of tequila on the way home tonight.
Drinko de Mayo.
And don’t mix the good stuff like Herradura Especial when a low-end white agauve will do just fine.
Fake, red-herring department ahead of ass-kicking losses this fall: Ure’s money is on a “deep Dem” operation behind the Supreme Court leak case. As Law enforcement prepares for potential post-Roe unrest. That’s spelled hypesteria.
Remember Monday could be Big: Victory Day (9 May) 1945 in Russia comes up to an anniversary Monday when reading stories like Putin practises NUCLEAR missile strikes and chemical attack in chilling war games on Nato border. Along with wondering Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why? Planning a PR coup perhaps?
While we are STILL WAITING for Starlink out here in the woods, speculation builds that Elon Musk is about to monetize opinions: Elon Musk could make some Twitter users pay ‘slight’ fee to tweet – will you be affected?
This is “rich” coming from a vaxxer and someone who spent time in Epstein’s orbit: Bill Gates: Elon Musk could make Twitter ‘worse’ on misinformation. We’re just trying to figure out how? I mean hold up all those Opinion Bots running on social for revenue?
Free Speech-Stealers Daily: Disinformation czar Nina Jankowicz: CRT anger being ‘weaponized. Lesson here? Using simple-minded communist agitprop technique the dems is making mockery of opposing the People’s Revolution, ain’t it? (“You must be a (checkboxes)
- White supremacist
- And (drum roll) A domestic terrorist!
You go, Hillary and Biden contributor girl!
We’re more interested in how the FBI and DHS are being retooled as the American FSB and KGB, sorry.
ATR: Poster: Danger of Growth
Lessons in Life – big important lessons – are all around us waiting to inform and teach. I got a HUGE lesson in the Garden Room Wednesday.
The set-up: I walked out the music studio to the office Wednesday morning, I noticed that one of my prize yellow squash plants – going gangbusters – had attempted veggiecide.
The plant had simply outgrown its ability to hold itself up. When one limb of the stalk got overpowered, it snapped falling to the flow.
It was a good lesson for this-here Urban Farmer, but not so great for the Urban Appetite curator.
I was so taken-aback by this, that I decided to memorialize this “teaching” in a poster suitable for color printing:
It’s a fair generalization – which is the basis of extensible thinking. There are other lessons that could be embedded in this one:
- Spoiled and Pampered things are Weak.
- Farming Fallout begins at home.
- Early to Spring, early to fall.
I thought you’d get a kick out of it, though.
Off to the cardiologist today. More on that little adventure tomorrow (we hope!).
Elaine asked me “Are you worried?”
“Hell no: Timex.”
Don’t tell her the punchline if she’s forgotten: “Takes a licking and keeps on ticking…”
Serious Research Note: BP before vit stack and CBD: 137/58 pulse 70. After the morning liposomal, vits, and CBD 117/60 pulse 56. You’re welcome to weigh in on what’s best. Dr. Input will be weighted more heavily. On recheck 120/60 pulse 60. Hmm…which do you body-manage to?
Write about your “vegetable experiences” or just when you get rich…
(Click Comments to toss in your own 2-cents on this)