Somewhere in the middle of the night (“It’s 2:13 AM” Alexa tells me) it occurred to me that Elaine and I haven’t taken a vacation this year.
Although we will have articles every day this week (two will be on the Peoplenomics.com side), brevity will make a rare appearance at some point.
Our consigliere will arrive mid-afternoon tomorrow. From then on, the focus this week is on entertaining. Lots of shop, and remodeling projects, plus field work is planned. Imagine running a “guest ranch” with no animals, but lots of diesel and gas-powered distractions. Since we’re all ham radio sorts, some of that can be expected, too.
We hope you have an equally delightful week mapped out, too.
So, Let’s Talk Gearing
Reader Len in Australia whined in a comment this morning about how the U.S. dollar was being run up, again. Best I can figure it, he’s no fan of the “strong Buck” because it drives down gold and silver prices.
But gearing (the Continental term [the gnomes of Zurich say “leverage”]) is really about cross-market arbitrage. It’s a good thing.
Take this morning. The gold price was down to $1,740 which was (-$11.10) on the Kitco charts. This means gold is telling us the market will go down. Because with Dollar purchasing power UP, everything ELSE will be CHEAPER.
Not a lot. But we can take the Friday close of the S&P 500, for example (3,965.64) and multiply it times the remaining gold price (expressed as a percent – this morning that’d be 0.9936611272914168 times. Which sets trading mindsets for an S&P of 3,940.5.
This informed us (earlier) that the market will “adjust its thinking” for a 25-1/2 point drop in the S&P-500.
So, sure as shootin’ we hit FinViz and see the S&P is pricing -22.75 on the downside.
The Cash Machine
If we need a little extra money, we simply wait until the market has been open for a while and watch the commercials run the prices (up or down) a good way from this “dart toss” and buy some highly leveraged investment vehicle (look up ETFs – exchange traded funds) and then wait to see if our technical trading toolkit blesses another day of reckless financial abandon.
If you get it wrong the trick is to dump the position when you’re down more than $50 bucks. And if you’re in the lettuce, let the winnings pile up until the trading indicators turn. At which point, be the first to sell at (or near) the top.
It ain’t that hard. It’s always harder, of course, to spot the “next Apple or Microsoft.” We hear about people who are “stock pickers” like this all the time, but damned if we like that kind of (casino term:) “action.”
I mean, can you IMAGINE walking into The MGM Grand in Las Vegas, putting a fraction of your life savings in a “machine” and leaving for a few weeks?
Day-trading craps is more our style, but to each their own.
About the only IPO I see on the horizon will be SpaceX when Elon needs some dough to power through the Twitter mess. (Cash is power, never forget.) SpaceX won’t likely be for the “little people” – instead look for the schmoozers and insiders to get the first bite of the next “apple” – it’s how Big People stay ahead of us common peeps.
Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator is just out. Adjust your take on the day according to this:
“he Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in October from +0.17 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in October, and three categories deteriorated from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.09 in October from +0.19 in September.”
Over the next few days, look for retail hype stories galore. But, as we explained on the subscriber side, the REALITY is that intermodal rail is falling fast and there’s a lack-of-overtime down on the docks of SoCal. The Recession will become evident very shortly.
Last week, Jeff Bezos was seeing it. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos: ‘Prepare for the Worst’ As US Recession Looms (businessinsider.com) crossed the wire seven days ago and the rewrites are still coming. Former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos Has This Advice for Getting Through a Recession.
Try to remember, though, to see your way through the “buy low, sell high” mantra drilled into every school kid by idiots in “education.” I’ve personally made as much “Buying HIGH and selling LOW.”
Fact is, “investing” has a lot more in common with betting the PASS – DON’T PASS line at the craps table than respekitical financializers would have you understand. Manage your winnings and losses, is the point.
And learn when money doesn’t matter. Our lifestyle is based on “Let’s eat at the buffet as long as we’re here” thinking. Good life, great buffet. And penny or nickel slots are fine. It’s all gambling and ego stocks with a huge dollop of luck.
(So much for brevity! But, one day, I tell you…)
The News Shredder
Where we “Plug in, turn on, and reconsider…”
Is this like a “democrat thing?” Because it rhymes with Fast and Furious in this old boy’s noggin” Arms sent to Ukraine could end up with ‘terrorists’.
Nuremburg II is coming for US-Gov. As walk-back of pandemic mismanagement gather’s steam: FDA Says Telling People Not to Take Ivermectin for COVID-19 Was Just a Recommendation. OH? Bullshit semanticists in high places, anyone?
And speaking of Semanticists: Expect fallout sooner than later now since Friday when a Judge rejects former White House press secretary Jen Psaki’s effort to quash subpoena. OF COURSE government and social(ist) media colluded. Think America’s too dumb to follow? Everyone knows conservative voices are targeted. Why do you think UrbanSurvival is not on FB, Twitter, or in other such digital barrios?
Questionable claims dept: Midterm elections have handed Joe Biden a divided Congress – history tells us that’s bad for good government. Mighty juicy clickbait but lacking intellectual substance. Since better government is LESS (not more), we think there’s a HUGE golden lining in terms of slowing the Marxist takeover playbook. Any media outlet saying otherwise must veer far left of center, as we figger. Oh, look! They do.
Save that Mouse! Disney Shocker! Bob Iger Back As CEO, Bob Chapek Out. Can Disney be saved from the radical woke? Lettuce prey? (sic)
Inspector Nuke-It: Can we put on the BS detector, please? Only needs to be turned up to 2 or so. Because while the Russians are blamed in stories like Ukraine nuclear power plant attacked by Russia, worker tells CBS News, as IAEA warns of “close call” remember Russians control the plant! So are they going to shell their own people? (No coaching – if you can’t smell the bullshit on your own, you need another website. This one’s too reality-based for you…). Stories citing “unnamed workers” (*or “sources”) are highly suspect.
Under $16,000 overnight. Yet stupid consumers keep buying digital tulips – making it almost hilarious. Especially when what’s next is obvious: BTC Bears Target Sub-$15,000 on Weekend Jump in FTX Contagion Risk.
Cyber hacking is going great guns: A Third of Global Organizations Were Breached Over Seven Times in the Past Year. And how much of your personal assets are off line which is about the only place they’re defensible?
Do you ever wonder? I mean when you read stories about our prospective future like this one? Baby Food and Infant Formula Market Size to Grow by USD 34378.13 million From 2022 to 2027, Assessment on Parent Market, Five Forces Analysis, Market Dynamics & Segmentation – Technavio.” I mean the question just lays there: How much of the growth is systemic currency debasement (e.g. inflation) and how much is due to more screaming me-me’s? Secondary question: Did anyone going into the now pending recession bother putting out a real bummer forecast in advance of events? Just wondering…
ATR: Our “Ultimate Christmas”
Two projects front and center this week. Both will be on ShopTalk Sunday this coming weekend.
But one is how to make a “Piece by piece Spa.” You can tell who’s gone extensible after trying out the new foot massager…
The second is I’ve been eyeing welding projects over at 42Fab.com. The one I’m looking at is the 10-sided Firepit Kit — 42Fab. But, for tuning up the welding operations I’ve got a bunch of “coupons” coming and I ordered a load of 42Fab’s CNC cutout scrap, too.
See, there are some hobby-machinist-making skills that are really rewarding and with our house guest this week, what’s more fun than being handed an acetylene rig (or a MIG or a TIG) and being told “Have fun!”
For later on this winter, a 35-inch weld-it-yourself fire pit looks like a hell of a lot of fun…
More on both as we meander into future ShopTalk Sunday editions.
Write when you get rich,