Durable Goods and a PMI report tomorrow? Spiced with the latest crypto religion revival talk? Like Hecklefish says, “Oh boy…”
Our consigliere was just south of Little Rock (*Arkysaw) leaving us just time to make the last-minute food and booze run. Turkey will be tomorrow night and prime rib Thursday. If you’re in the neighborhood…keep driving.
For today’s market outlook (I’ll spare you the math) there is still a case for a one-last rally before things collapse. Which may not arrive till early December, time being the hardest part of futuring.
From an Elliott wave standpoint, we look something like this:
As you should be able to figure, we count us as being in the new Big (yellow if it were shown) 3 Down. Of which, 3 (1) down is done and the market is quibbling over whether 3 (2) should end as an a-b-c – which is already “in the can” OR whether the past few days of decline is a “d” wave meaning there’s an “e” wave in the wings which will turn:
- 3 (2) into a five wave advance of a-b-c-d-e
- Which will (or COULD) go all the way up to the declining trend channel from the all-time highs which were set Nov, 8 of 2021.
- Crash then in December….
Which is also when Bitcoin hit it’s all time high.
Holiday cheer aside, I read a report the other day that 100 percent of people who invested in Bitcoin have lost money. This is true every time new post-high lower lows are carved out.
Over in the virtual wing of the financial asylum, the inmates are talking nonsense again: While not quite as lurid as their Hunter Biden (and Payday President) exposés, the NY Post lays out the sins of FTX in Polyamory & pills: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX party pad (nypost.com). While otherwise, Bankman-Fried’s FTX, parents bought Bahamas property worth $121 mln. Since there’s a sucker born every minute, why not?
This whole thing (a debacle to come) was a Ponzi Scheme from the get-go. We even went so far as to recommend you NOT get a digital wallet (this was before the self-perjury checkmark on the IRS 1040) has screwed nearly everyone it has touched, seems like: ‘I want my money back’: Emails from desperate Australian FTX customers detailed in court documents.
Two things surprise us great in this digital tulip wilt (predictable since Day ONen): First, BTC is still trading at $15,728. Elon Musk, we hope, won’t put on his King Canute hat and talk up this turd of a financial fantasy, anymore.
Still no one in jail, we know of. Bullshit protection of the rich and connected.
Second is this follow-on story (next!) has taken so long to appear: Another major cryptocurrency exchange could be poised to go bankrupt | TVP World. We would have expected a whole bevvy of digital dominoes to be falling by now. Jails getting overcrowded.
Yes, that’s right:Our BTC target is still zero in the long haul. With a pause around $7K to $10K on the way.
However, I give my fellow humans too much credit thinking them smarter than such numbers insist.
News Headline Disposerator
(With a word-play apology to In-Sink-Erator…)
Nuke plant shell hype continues. Assuming you know Russia controls the nuke plant in play and the odds of Russia shelling its own troops is about zero, you might want to take this report – ‘Close Call’ in Shelling Near Nuclear Reactor on Ukraine’s Frontline | NTD – with a grain of …no, make that a whole 50-pound salt lick.
Meanwhile (with Ukraine shelling) Russia calls on Ukraine to pull out heavy weapons from Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Crooked communist government wannabes all work the same. While speeding up the arms movements to UKR, what is the Wart Party doing back home? Joe Biden pushes gun control after Colorado Springs shooting – TheBlaze. OK for Ukrainians to be armed but not Americans? Ukrainians have a defensible border, too. Kinda unlike, oh, Texas…
Speaking of communist governments...Better late than never? Or is this strong arming some social support for the dumbs in 2024?
Side of frosted Lefties with that? Abbott declares fictional “invasion” as Trump heaps praise on border cruelty – Liberation News
The American War Party response? The US is accelerating its weapons acquisition process to replenish the stockpile.
Hungary for money? Friends? Low rad counts? EU member will defend nuclear cooperation with Russia, foreign minister tells RT.
Yes, it was a bioweapon, but why keep mandating? 22 states ask feds to repeal COVID vaccine mandate for health care workers | Fox News. the short answer is $. Lots and lots of $$$$$$$$ with no liability.
From Kamala’s lips: Kamala Harris says U.S. will defend Philippines in South China Sea (nbcnews.com). Translation: The U.S.A. is not a Manila folder… *(Sorry, the line was just sitting there, and something came over me!) We do continue to pray for Joe Biden’s health.
WGAS? (Who gives a shit?) Ivanka Trump Posts Egypt Photos After Withdrawing From Politics. Done with politics? Maybe. But, certainly not done with fame or money, huh?
Has someone been hitting the nitrous? NASA ‘giddy’ over amazing moon views from Artemis 1 Orion spacecraft | Space. Since there’s nothing there, WHO CARES? The commute time to the Moon sucks and the shipping rates are absurd. Will this become the next Ponzi? Moon landowners? Why not?
Around the Ranch: Holiday Fire Prevention
Over in the Comments section, reader Elanor made an insightful post:
“I live in a city. We have had an unusual amount of house fires and abandoned building fires in town, as well as grass fires on the outskirts of town. How do you prepare for fires surrounded by trees?”
Being of a “fire department family” the answer was long but useful:
“ON the prepping for fires…
Son G2 will be done with his current deployment to (insert name of ultra big computer company noted for its cpu OS) site around year end. Then comes a bucket truck rental and we will be trimming down the (huge) elm (or larch or whatevers) between the house and shop.
Main thing: No overhang of buildings.
Second, my consigliere and I will be “tagging” all the pines within 150 feet of the house this week. Because pine trees have so much pitch that they tend to “explode off” pieces of bark, trunks and branches in forest fire conditions.
You want to make sure that if ANY tree falls in a fire, there will still be a “lane” – 25+ feet all the way around your home. (Go ahead, make lots of firewood!). Now you’re down to exposure fires if you can keep the lane “wet lined.”
Now on the prevention side indoors: Find a local electrician or handyman to go through your entire home electrical system. When they do so, have them tighten EVERY electrical connection in the house. Don’t tackle this unless you are 100 percent certain how to do it and pull power completely ALWAYS.
What most people don’t understand is that copper is annealed. And this means that it continues to “flow” – like a supercooled solid.
What this results in over time, and I’ve seen it firsthand in radio gear and living aboard (and working on) marine electrics plus in our own home-remodels and expansions) is that after 10 to 20 years, or so, you can get an eighth or a quarter turn on almost every electrical connection in your home.
Now, imagine – just for instance – that people long ago actually did REAL home maintenance. This electrical maintenance ritual is something the “old timers” used to do instinctively.
Every 10-15 years – pull every outlet (POWER OFF!) and retighten and while you’re at it, confirm the polarity is right – and properly grounded!
A lot of people have overlooked these items because we don’t have a company around marketing that “simple but useful safety maintenance.” Have a business plan for something I call “HomeSafe.” Never going to be a company on the NYSE (but I have it as a long-term idea for G2 if he ever gets bored with emergency/industrial medicine (not likely).
This is well within the skills of many homeowners.
You NEVER want to see an electrical spark-sourced “wall fire” – which I experienced out here in the woods.
Killed power, knocked it down, but in the “what went wrong” research, I was putting a real 20-amp load (MIG welder) on a cheap (15 Amp) outlet – with predictable results. Genuine firefighting stress – peripheral vision darkening as the adrenaline hits roll through, and all that.
Only takes one or two of these events to see where the problems are.
Now toss in an imperfect connection and then add a dash of corrosion over the years…an increase in house fires over the holidays happens because? HEATERS come on this time of year and now you’re into overload country.
Write if you get the wishbone and prep for the gravy swim.