Markets: Short Week, Contraindications

Might as well buy a Lotto ticket, if you think you can make a quick buck in this pig of a market.  The reasons are obvious, yet hidden from the public.

The Lying Fed?

It has been painfully obvious for years that most of the so-called economic gains in America were the effects of pernicious money-printing by the Federal Reserve. However, until a month ago, it was still possible for the small-time investors (like us) to look at Money Supply figures and ballpark how much of the “numerical gain” in markets were actual goods and services increasing, versus effects of Made-Up money.

The Federal Reserve has been systematically killing transparency since Alan Greenspan axed reporting of the broadest measure of money (M3) years ago.  Now, even the narrower measures (M2 and M1) have been hidden.  The Fed doesn’t want to panic (otherwise) rational investors by telling them money supplies are up (M2) 26%  (and M1 almost double) in the past year because that would reveal a terrible Truth:  The gains of today are illusory and deliberately misleading.

For the legal department of the Fed (and the razor-wire hiding coup Fools on the Hill). it’s all necessary to keep a Global Depression (long overdue) from taking hold.  The answer has been?

The Pseudo Lie

There are two kinds of lies in the world:  Overt and Omission.

The Fed has been careful to avoid Overt Lies.  They simply decree (sorry investors!) that they will no longer tell you how much money is being made-up.  As a result,  inflation, GDP, and all other dollarized economic measures can be whatever political considerations dictate.

In fact, if hauled before Congress (if we had a legit one, not sold-into-financial bondage through contributions as the charade of checkbook democracy, they’d be able to Honestly say “We are carrying out our Mission (dual mandate) as directed by Congress.”

The dual mandate from congress was about prices and employment.  Which runs contrary to the notion in my book The 100-year Toaster that the entire world has been torched by the terrible pandemic of Debt.  Which, unlike Covid, no one is working to cure because everyone’s making bank on the disease running wild.

Of course, this means that unit volumes (consumption) can’t be allowed to drop (too much, anyway) and thus if prices don’t pop out of the chimney and homeless are still just under the overpasses, then the joke of a “healthy Economy” can be sold on Controlled News Networks.

Thing in law is that Overt Lies are punishable.  Omission Lies?  Much harder.  How do you prove someone didn’t “just forget” to mention something?

M3, Aggregate Index, and Time to Crisis

There is really something useful in long wave economics to be seen here:  When the Fed Hides the Economic Data, the Crisis is already clear.  It can’t be discussed honestly, however.  Let’s look back:

St. Greenspan (who we reckon to be the patron Saint of crooked elites) stopped reports the M3 (wide financial base) on March 23, 2006.

Which  once again leads us to our use of the Aggregate Index (*reported twice weekly on the Peoplenomics side) as a real “truth Detector” because it really works, though often with too much lead time.

Let’s make up a simple table:

  • March 23, 2006:  Greenspan axes M3 which was raising red flags about real estate going into Bubble Mode.
  • Week ending May 5, 2006, our Aggregate Index closes at 9463.45.
  • From here, a Secondary High 9121.29 occurred on August 26, 2007.
  • That’s when the Fed (unhindered by nuisance reporting of M3) really poured the coal onto the real estate fires.  By October of 2007, our Aggregate Index had run up to 11359.27.
  • Week ending March 8, 2008, though, the force-fed “expansion” was getting long in the tooth.  Confidence waned, dropping the Aggregate to 9337.54.
  • As the U.S. economic system teetered on the Brink, a decision was made to run markets up more in hopes of postponing the inevitable. May 16, 2008, the pumping and official ignoring of NODOC madness bubble our Aggregate up to 10367.46.  Whee!
  • Then the bottom began to fall out.
  • From the week of September 19, 2008 (Aggregate 10367.46) the market fell for three painful weeks to October 10’s Aggregate 6696.69.
  • The Collapse of the Housing Bubble wasn’t to be denied.
  • March 6 of 2009, our Aggregate bottomed the same week as the Dow.  The Aggregate closed at 5209.51 after being lower, intraweek.

Aggregate Pointing to a Crash Ahead?

We have no way of knowing (in advance) when the PowersThatBe will pull the plug on prosperity again.  Just remember three things:

First:  This is NOT prosperity.  The government is papering-over a likely global pandemic economic collapse by sending out Made-Up money.  The more you spend, the longer the Musical Chairs plays on.

Second: Our Fiat Money is 97% Debt.  Compared with the purchasing power of the Dollar prior to the Fed-jacking of Banking, we have just over 3% of purchasing power remaining.  Many top liberal economists (such as Stephanie Kelton) have argued that since the economy is working on 3% money, no reason the money supply couldn’t be blown up to three times (or more) and run on 1 percent real purchasing power.

Economists argue that “Inflation” acts as a kind of “social conveyor belt” and that people who are smart-enough to buy on margin (e.g. by taking out a bank loan against a guaranteed title to their property) will win over time.  They will indeed be paying back the debt with “cheaper dollars.”

Third:  Periodic Economic Disruptions Conspire to Return Capitol.  When a big problem – like the Housing Bubble and Collapse – comes along, the Ownership Class seizes on the crisis to make piles of money.  Titles to property come home to the rich.

Conspiracy-minded people look at the massive influx at the southern border and wonder “Is a devastating new Covid wave (or something else) going to kill off a huge portion of gringos such that replacements need to be at the ready?  Is THIS what’s driving border insanity?

Sadly, we will never know.

What we can do is look at how we’re replaying events of 1929 and see that we MAY be in a similar long-term cyclical top.  That the Disappearance of M1 and M2 data – possibly analogous to the peak of 2006 – isn’t happening again.

It also has an eerie echo of 1929 to it:

The Week Ahead

Except for a Dallas Fed number this morning, decent day to go back to bed.  Tomorrow we will have our two-part edition (with the second part coming around 8:15 AM Central) for the Case-Shiller Housing numbers.

Wednesday’s main event could be the ADP jobs preview.  Thursday the new unemployment filings and the Challenger Job Cuts report.

Although markets are closed on Good Friday, the government will be open so the Employment situation will be along plus early Auto sales figures.  We’ll be up, sure.

The only other “exciting event” will be the lawn’s first seasonal mowing here…

What Passes for “News”

In the mainstream, here’s the daily sheep feed:

New York is turning into a poster for bad government:Cuomo admin. kept COVID-19 tests from nursing homes as Dem’s relatives got them.”

Suez Sillies:  See if this makes sense: Megaship Blocking Suez Canal “80% Partially Refloated”  My only nautical experience is 11-years living on a sailboat, but I wonder if nautical designers are familiar with the calculations for “80% partially refloated”?

Wait!  You mean it’s a cash-cow for Trump-deprived Mainstream media to lay Ultra-Hype on the Suez?  “Why The Internet Loves the Suez Canal Stuck Ship Saga.”

Jargonism in sports:  Odd quote here… “‘I’ve grown as a human being’ – Smith would return to Australia captaincy if selectors wanted.”  Get back to us when he’s grown as a carrot or something.

And Universe is Winking, Perhaps?

Assuming you know the U.S. is pouring arms into Ukraine.  And assuming you know Russia has moved troops up along the Ukraine border.  Further assuming you know four soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine this weekend by mortars and that the smell of war is in the air as Russia eyes Odessa which would close Ukraine’s only port.  I mean…skip all this.

Just read how a Russian Cheese King says to Italy: Recognize Crimea to Export Parmesan Again.

Then ask yourself:  Did sanity beam down to the planet over the weekend, or are we all still crazy as ever?

You know where our bet is…sheesh.

Dow futures down 143 and S&P down 16 with an hour to the open.

Write when you get rich,

29 thoughts on “Markets: Short Week, Contraindications”

  1. Delays, delays, and moar delays, gotta take that shit around Cape Good Hope – cmon man- thats funny..goodhope.

    Yep – HOPE has alwayz been a good strategy, jus ask antichristobumma how it worked for his evil designs on USA, not so good for we the sheeples.
    Never ever in a million years worked as viable business/sales strategy..”why is this company on your prospect list? they have not done business with us in 5 years”..”umm, Hope?

    Everything is going up,uP,UP! TP, Chips/Electronics, FOOD – oh my.

    US Senators/”kitchen slaves”, can not even take pictures of the Human Disapora disaster unfolding down the border.
    Those vids of illegals running thru fields, neighborhoods – pouring out the back of semi trailer somewhere in Texas ?

    G – that wasnt a flock of deer running thru Ure back nine last night – was wetbacks!

    “E, grab ole bessie, beaners are over running the place again.
    G – No worries US dollar, UST’s , markets, metals , crypto’s – never mind the noise home skillets – U gotz a human locust problem – in the old daze, we used to call that kinda thing a Plague.

  2. Antagonizing the Russians in their own back yard is up there in the top 3 stupid mistakes of the Biden Pretendency so far. We will see if cooler heads in the Pentagon will prevail, but it looks like America is following the ‘stupid British mistakes’ from the 1800’s with Afghanistan and now potentially the Crimea. Don’t look for a ‘charge of the light brigade’ this time. From my military training, I am well able to predict that Russia will not allow any significant force penetration in or around Crimea – and the current crop of officers have had the same basic tactical training I have had, so if they attempt something so fool hardy, it was not because they could have not have predicted the outcome. Let’s hope this is posturing – but in todays environment, sanity is not a good bet.

  3. I don’t know a lot about stuck ships. But my wife was not 80% pregnant four times, she was 100% pregnant. This ship is still 100% stuck and in trouble along with every other ship behind it. Where did they put all the mud rock and stuff they moved? In the cannel.
    I really never worked with CFD’s a blend of hide the ownership sausage from the SEC. The no money down thanks to the Prime Dealer banks & Wall Street Houses who will scrape interest, points and fees off the top to fund these positions. The scraping of huge profits to the Hedge Fund who are the assignee of the stock when they either close out the position or take over and cannibalize the underlying company. But the bitch is the derivatives that insure this whole thing just might be the trigger that pulls down the European Financial Markets on a system wide margin call.
    You talk about papering things over… Try this one on for size.

  4. News now out via CNBC is Big player had margin calls Friday leading to much of the volatility. Nomura and Credit Suisse admit to being in trouble, Wells Fargo and perhaps others said to be in the pipeline for damages. Hedge fun got away with borrowing heavily from all the big brokers — in the old days the bankers would share these secrets over golf in Connecticut, bot these days it’s all computers granting the loans, and compliance and the SEC are where?

    In the days of pit trading, they smelled someone in trouble on margin call and they stepped aside. Somebody tried to buy the futures in size Friday and the normal liquidity providers noticed. That spike was a short squeeze, but all the shorts may not be squoze yet, either, so who knows where we go from here? 2008 was not pretty unless you were short!

  5. the link to the “coldest air of the season” goes to a cbs news clip from 2015. Doing a search yields info from Feb 2021??? What am I missing?

  6. Ever Given is under way on her own power this morning. Although it will still take weeks to unwind the Suez traffic jam.

  7. Insanity abounds…meantime, my son wants me to move to Texas to be nearer his 2 & 4. I was in the San Antonio Symphony years ago, before I ended up in NYC for many years, and had a fun time in Texas. I drove all over in my Jag XK150 drophead coupe. Any suggestions as to where? Your woods look lovely. I’ve been reading and studying on my own how the money works..been reading your site for many years (very informative) plus others. As I learn a bit more, they take away things like M2. I’m guessing we are not supposed to understand.

  8. “Fourth Stimulus Check Gains Support in Congress…”

    Yes! While gold falls.

    Looks like the only folks sophisticated in silver were the sellers skinning the suckers.

  9. “the smell of war is in the air”

    Are they in a hurry or what….
    the Three month time limit isn’t up till the middle of May…
    Or are the puppeteers desperate since the previous president wasn’t willing to get us involved in more war only interested in getting us out of the endless war pattern and start negotiating and rebuilding rather than just taking…..
    and on another curious side thought would that be the perfect time for China to march in and take Taiwan hit us with a multi front … the old multi frontal attack .. double down..
    or lets go three ways or more…

    split the countries military especially when we are already spread pretty thin.. and how much more can the average wage earner pay for more bombs etc.. especially since the components aren’t made in the USA..
    they already own most of the countries big industries.. use the money we paid them for our debits.. to buy property brings to mind a book….

  10. Chip and plastic shortage causes auto makers to close.
    Refiners still closed for cold restart and shoulder season.
    2 week traffic jam @ Panama canal.
    Suez canal blocked for a week or more.
    Shipping container shortage.
    Did I miss something? These add up to producer deflation and consumers’ stimulus checks getting raided with inflation. Somebody’s trading department is probably going to clean up on this.
    Sovereign wealth funds are liquidating because of low oil prices last year and ongoing covid expenses while finance media are pointing their fingers at everything but that for market slack.

  11. This just out, no armageddon in April. Famous last words. Apophis will sail by at 20k miles above.

    What are the chances that objects orbiting Apophis will impact Earth? These things are little systems on their own, it’s not a boulder flying by. More like a pile of rubble.

    Oddly, the word Apophenia is real close to Apophis. Everyone suffers from this.

    Apophenia (/æpo??fi?ni?/) is the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things.

    Soo…”don’t mind the sonic booms and fireballs, they are completely unrelated to the asteroid flying by” seems calming. And it would be coming at the critical April date range we all dread each year, where, oddly, people tend to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated massacres and disasters….

    There are no movies this interesting.

    • Philistine, the Apophis Asteroid has I believed already passed us by in March 2021.
      Do you have information that it hung around. Is it doing loops out there in the solar system ??.
      Some astronomers believe the 2068 fly by might offer the opportunity for a collision.

    • Hmmm, I wonder what happens if we’re teetering on the brink of military insanity, and Apophis’ debris trail trips somebody’s “nuclear attack” EWS…?

  12. For many years, twenty at least, I have thought (known?) that the wheels could come off the world in about a week between the first tank moving out and global thermonuclear war.

    Little “offenses” demand “responses,” and the lizard chests puff out, and they growl menacingly. It escalates. Sometimes it takes months, but it could happen in only a few days with today’s Kable TeeVee to speed things along.

    No brakes on this goddam thing…. Like a Bugatti…

    (I always thought that it ought to be a law, with no exceptions, that ALL wars be REQUIRED to be officially declared by Congress, AND that ALL their sons and daughters would get drafted and trained and GO FIRST into the “Battlespace.” Lacking a son or daughter, the Congressbastards THEMSELVES should be required to GO FIRST and fight the dreaded enemy for America’s Great Glory! If it’s important enough for MY grandkids to go die for America, them THEIR kids should be willing and HONORED to go first.)

    Fat chance.

    • “Little “offenses” demand “responses,” and the lizard chests puff out, and they growl menacingly. It escalates.”


      I think that history will show since the dark ages when they were the first ones on the fields of battle that since then.. the Lizards hide away safe in their area’s from any drama.. they just love to stir up the rest to do the dirty work.. give me but don’t involve me or my family in the events that they create..

  13. This is the George I know!!! A complete wrap of the insanity the other guys call normal. The real George is back !!! Yaaayyyyy!

  14. and george . art prices have collapsed . i know . last night was a disaster for some rare art . truth is my forte . me and others were shocked . defation on a scale never ever witnessed . the only ones that win in this living hell is the folks that survive .

  15. The Fed’s behavior highlights what may have previously been said in these pages: it doesn’t matter who is in the White House.

  16. Roger Babson gained fame by being the only economist who called the coming of the 1929 crash.  The only book I got from my father’s office after he passed is “If  Inflation Comes” (what you can do about it) by Roger Babson.  1943 edition.  My father signed the book from his home, probably around that date.
    Babson gives the pretty much standard understanding of inflation for that time, and what an individual can do about it.  I read the book years ago.  What Babson never dreamed about is the magnitude of artificial ‘financial engineering’ that we have today, building an ever higher house of cards and debt.  It just wasn’t possible in his day.   So we are deep in uncharted territory.  When (not if) this collapses, the whole world will implode like has never been seen in history.

    Quoting Kunstler: “we’re going to shed the massive over-burden of financial game-playing that has pretended to represent our economy.”

    Quoting the Chinese: “May you live in interesting times”

  17. Cut & pasted from a *.PDF of the letter…


    March 26, 2021

    Dear Members of the Homeland Security Advisory Council: Secretmy U.S. Department of Homeland Security Washington, DC 20528 Homeland Security I am honored to address you as the new Secretary and to express my profound gratitude for your commitment to the Department of Homeland Security. You have demonstrated your commitment in different ways, including through your service as a Member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC). Many of you have served on the HSAC for years.

    I am considering how the HSAC can bring the greatest value to the Department and how the expertise, judgment, and counsel of its Members can be harnessed most effectively to advance the Department’s mission. I expect to work closely with the HSAC and to rely on its Members to help guide the Department through a period of change.

    In the service of an orderly transition to a new model for the HSAC, I have ended the term of current HSAC members effective March 26, 2021. I will reconstitute the HSAC in the next few weeks, once the new model has been developed. Chairman William Bratton and Vice Chair Karen Tandy will remain in their HSAC leadership positions. William Webster will remain the HSAC’s Chair Emeritus. I was privileged to work with Judge Webster throughout my prior service in the Department.

    I look forward to working with you in the future, whether as a member of a redesigned and reconstituted HSAC or in a different capacity, as we together seek to advance the Department’s noble mission.

    On behalf of the Department of Homeland Security, I thank you.


    Alejandro N. Mayorkas,


    The Biden administration has fired 32 members of the Homeland Security Advisory Council, according to this letter sent Friday by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who told members that he has ended the “terms of current HSAC members effective March 26, 2021.”

    The 32 members of the council who were removed on Friday were unpaid advisors, and were appointed by several former DHS secretaries, both Democratic and Republican. The list included former NSA director Keith Alexander, former acting DHS Secretary Ken Cuccinelli, former Immigration and Customs Enforcement acting director Tom Homan, former D.C. police chief Cathy Lanier, former star FBI agent Ali Soufan, Heritage Foundation foreign policy expert James Carafano, and former DHS official Stewart Baker.

    ‘Kinda reminds me of when Mr. Obama fired all those Generals…

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