Markets: Passing Phase of Self-Sabotage?

Got yet-another crackpot view of the market that has evolved since our discovery of the “Market Heartbeat” that was laid out for subscribers (Report 880B, “July 14, 2018:  Heartbeat of the Market found!  (Golem #1)“).

This new theory says the recent spike in selling could break and the markets could recover between now and early January.  Then we will head down again into mid-to-late January.

I call this new tool The Timing Box and we’ll lay out how to construct your own in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.  Key thing about this approach is that it is a hybrid of math and visuals.  In other words, the construction of Timing Boxes isn’t something (like Elliott waves) where you just look at graphical wave counts – admittedly a subjective approach since the “counts” in Elliott are in the “eyes of the beholder.”

Timing Boxes are different in that they offer definable beginnings and estimated ends.  One end is a buy zone and the other a sell zone.  At the moment, this crackpot theory says we’re in a reasonable buy zone as of the Monday close. But, what they don’t offer is any insight as to the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow. Unless, saying we’re in a buy mode now, they are telling us the Fed won’t raise…  We shall see…

What we think will happen will be something like a small rally today, perhaps fading late.  Then, nervous selling by the markets ahead of tomorrow’s rate announcement.

THEN, hint the Trading Boxes, we have either put in the low yesterday OR will tomorrow, but then we could rally for a couple of weeks.  It doesn’t eliminate judgement calls because either a) the Fed takes a pass tomorrow and we begin going up immediately of b) the Fed hikes and a wash-out low comes along Friday.  Whatever.

Somehow in all this is the suicidal calculus  of a government shutdown over the Border Wall.

Obviously, I’ll be watching the Fed closely. But, tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report should be of great interest to people who manage their own investments and carry the spreadsheet gene..

We’re at a point right now where it’s possible that the Markets have factored in about all the bad news than can be thought of.  Year-end tax-loss selling has probably come close to running its course.  The specter of a trade war is in limbo for another month, or two.  And, in that period, we expect the democrats will take over the House and instantly move forward with Articles of Impeachment.

That, in turn, will pressure the Trump administration on trade because he will need to “put points on the board.

Meanwhile, out in We The People Land, a lot of upper-middle and upper families will be discovering (to their horror) that yes, there really IS a cap on state, local tax deductibility of $10,000.  In other words, while property taxes used to be uncapped as a write-off, so many people have bought “lake houses and second homes” that it may come as a rude spring awakening that anything over $10,000 worth of state income tax, property, and sales tax, will NOT be allowed. Tough on snowbirds?

When we take a longer view of “growth industries” one of the biggies is government.  And since failure to “pay as you go” results in depreciated money and massive deficits, people ought to be solidly in the “pitchforks at the gate” mode in 2019, says our political consultant, Ben Dover.

The republicans will spew how it wasn’t their doing.  (It was) and the democrats will offer options that will lock-in their retake of the White House (ala FDR) once we have finished the Trump rhyme off Herbert Hoover.  Except, it is likely to have a “light Nixonian finish” to it.

In what we see as a 2019 where we scale-up a political clone of the present French tax microlution, the free lunch socialists will be making their moves in the US during 2019.  The lefties are resting up for it, too, as we found in “Ocasio-Cortez takes time off for ‘self-care,’ laments loss of yoga sessions due to politics.

So that, and this Only Chart That Matters…

Is how things kick off today.  A bounce at the open, but seriously?  We will refrain from going long, just yet.  With the Fed decision in 30-hours  a rally now could be buying the rumor before selling the news.  Which resonates with our native bearishness.

You know, there’s an old saying:  “No man’s home or property is secure when the state legislature’s in session.”  The recycled thought template to remember today is “No man’s investments are secure when there’s a Fed rate decision pending.”

Since we’re not rushin’  to play “Powell Roulette” we take solace in cash during uncertain times.  Not exciting as leverage day trading, but we can buy rum with it.  Especially when our Trading Boxes tell us a short relief rally should be along to wrap up 2018.  But, from which low?

Housing Starts

This is always a dandy because economists and sociologists don’t communicate very well.  Sociologists would argue that with a growing LBGTQ sector, we won’t need as many bedrooms since the birth rates will decline.  Besides, everyone is living somewhere already, right?

The details?

Building Permits  Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,328,000.  This is 5.0 percent (±1.6 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,265,000 and is 0.4 percent  (±1.7 percent)* above the November 2017 rate of 1,323,000.  Single?family authorizations in November were at a  rate of 848,000; this is 0.1 percent (±1.4 percent)* above the revised October figure of 847,000.  Authorizations of  units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 441,000 in November.

Housing Starts  Privately?owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000.  This is 3.2  percent (±9.8 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,217,000, but is 3.6 percent (±9.4 percent)* below  the November 2017 rate of 1,303,000.  Single?family housing starts in November were at a rate of 824,000; this is  4.6 percent (±8.4 percent)* below the revised October figure of 864,000. The November rate for units in buildings  with five units or more was 417,000.

Housing Completions  Privately?owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,099,000.  This is  0.4 percent (±8.7 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,095,000, but is 3.9 percent (±11.5 percent)*  below the November 2017 rate of 1,144,000.  Single?family housing completions in November were at a rate of  772,000; this is 5.4 percent (±7.6 percent)* below the revised October rate of 816,000. The November rate for units  in buildings with five units or more was 314,000.

The economists will wring hands and say trickle this and tax cut that.  But, in the end Reality appears in today’s Housing Start report from Census.

Life Boundaries

Weather begins to matter as up to 46-million may travel over the holidays: “Valley rain, mountain snow continue in Northwest; East Coast storm could bring travel delays.”

Stocking up on any government services provided may be a good idea because that has been Little Progress Made As Partial Government Shutdown Looms. The good news?  Social Security will not stop because both political parties know that would be political self-destruction.

Social media is still dangerous as always.  While Twitter tumbles on concerns about hacking activity, we see social media as eventually making it into the world of psychiatrists and social workers as Digital Diseases become apparent.

Madness on Bordering

The Media is still wrongly framing the Border.  Notice in the headline 3 illegal immigrants indicted for murder of American whistleblower: report the use of “immigrants”?  I would argue that unless they are papered in they are aliens.  And yes, the term appears in federal law which people just conveniently forget.

(See 8 U.S. Code § 1611 – Aliens who are not qualified aliens ineligible for Federal public benefits OR 8 U.S. Code § 1365 – Reimbursement of States for costs of incarcerating illegal aliens and certain Cuban nationals, if you doubt it.

Reason for mentioning this?  Apply your Labguage Filters carefully as you read “Asylum Seekers Stake Claims on a Patch of U.S. Soil at the Border With Mexico.”

As son George II quoted to me the other day:  “If you’re a conservative and want to piss-off a liberal, tell ’em the truth.  If you’re a liberal and want to piss-off a conservative, lie to ’em.”

And speaking of conservatives, did you see “‘Junk News’: Russia Report Done By Anti-Conservative Academics”? Everyone’s got an angle, huh?

Freedom of religion, meantime, is something we hold sacred (so to speak).  And we think the West will have its hands full totally trashing and demonizing Vlad Putin who is standing up for religion as much (or more) than Western courts have.  See Vladimir Putin Decries Prosecution of Jehovah’s Witnesses in Russia, if you’re not clear.

Had enough fun for now?  Me too!  Moron the ‘morrow!

20 thoughts on “Markets: Passing Phase of Self-Sabotage?”

  1. “Social security will not stop”..a little bird offered some insight regards “the reset” recently to me while out in the yard puttering around.
    Lil bird was talking about how citizens who have paid into SS system will have a “core” credit in new Gold backed currency. More you have paid into SS system – the larger the core credit will be, up to a limit.
    Lil bird said he got the seed for this new currency idea while perusing the Boston FED’s homepage. Something about RoadToRoota, Root A being an old compiler language term. Many hints can be found when looking into one Mr Alan Greenspan – father of the computerized trading programs, the father of market rigging hisself.

    Full disclosure – commenting as a retired Conservation Officer (6 yrs), and feral cat killer, I can tell you in no uncertain terms feral cats are considered INVASIVE SPECIES. In my home state, I got calls almost every month requesting “assistance” with feral cat problem. They destroy local bird populations, not to mention all the other creatures that hunt and feed on rodent/pests. So “good job” feral cat lovers…get a sense of personal power and the warm and fuzzies from destroying all that bird life, and destroying natural balance of your local habitat, sick bastards. Responsible feline owners put bells on their cats, and keep them outside. Irresponsible cat owners, at least in my neck of the woods, wonder everyday whatever happened to Scruffy..

    • I have a cat that is in and outdoors. I’ve bought him 5 collars, each different then before in an effort to find one he won’t be able to work off. I’ve spent a ton of money on these and those little metal tags that tell others he has a home. All gone. Where? No idea. If this damned cat disappears, it isn’t because I didn’t try to let people know he has a home. The cat just hates to wear collars. Please reconsider the concept of irresponsible cat owners.

    • Hear that!! A few years ago the boys were out coon hunting,dog barked tree and sure enough a pair of eyes popped up,one shot and down came the coon er cat and a couple of days later on the board at the store was a notice, has anyone seen Star,well we just didn’t have the heart to tell them that Star would’nt come home again nor come to think about it a few more that were out late at night.!!

    • The late Art Bell & I am sure George would disagree with you about feral cats. Art Bell rescued several & found them loveable & adorable although somewhat standoffish among people. Feral cats serve the public in keeping the rodent population under control. You must have been a Democrat Conservation Officer.

      • You should see the little cutie feral cat that adopted my husband. She has lime green eyes and is black and white. He is going to call her Tripper because she walks in front of him and almost trips him and a few times he’s dropped kicked her by mistake. When I first met her, and I saw her complete possession of him, I had to point my finger and let her know that I was sharing him with her, that she was not sharing him with me! She’s turned into the shop cat and gets fed twice a day. There must have been at least 7 of those feral cats in the area, but she’s the only one that had the courage to come forward. She is living the high life now, and my husband, a life-long dog person, has turned into a cat lovie.

  2. George, the ‘free lunch socialists’ indeed. Just more goofy, irresponsible name calling.
    D’s spend millions/billions on things like kid’s school lunches and grandma’s housing/healthcare while R’s loot trillions on things like stock buybacks.
    You need some proportionality. You barely said a peep while 10% was added to the national debt to fund a trillion dollars of corporate buybacks. And let’s not forget the $8 trillion the conservatives put on the national debt to break the Middle East — with Iran being the only winner.
    With such a track record of incompetence, no wonder conservatives resort to name calling. Best, Mike.

    • It is common for the unproductive to scoff at new ideas, such as being proposed by President Trump. Those who hate to be wrong or are afraid of losing their job or looking foolish always put down and trash the person instead of saying “HEY, THAT’S A GOOD IDEA”, let’s look at it and give it a chance.

      • I personally think the wall isn’t worth investing in. If the USA was smart they would go after those hiring illegal aliens…no one making a decent wage would go out on a limb if he faced loosing it all..
        Instead illegal aliens come and we pay for it..
        I wonder if there isn’t some stupid bet for a dollar..( similar to the movie trading places , where two wealthy old men bet a dollar that they can tear a wealthy person down and place a beggar in his place)

        Where they bet that they can just walk an army of illegals across the border with the blessings of the people

    • Hmm..interesting..the kids be responsible for mom and dads care…medical…medicine..
      how far would that go..quarter million per person per year care.. Then medicine some of them are thousands of dollars a month..I was just talking to one person that was thankful for her insurance through the military..her husbands one medicine is seventy grand a month.. If it wasn’t for the insurance they had thought about moving to another country because there pharmaceutical companies aren’t allowed to charge but a few thousand percent more for the medications.. Seems to me to do that the whole system would have to be regulated and controlled.
      Now go SS recipients if I would have had the options to invest what I paid in..not the company contributed amount..from. Work day one and the amount of compounding periods conservative figures would have an investment total between twenty five million to fifty million…
      The fact that congress has squandered the laboring forces SS contributions away on stupid wars and bankers among other things isn’t the fault of the people

  3. G,

    My post doesn’t really have much to do with your writings today. But I’d really like to draw your attention to a couple of things. And Warhammer, too. He might already know about this, and if so, would like his input to this, please?

    One is a video, a bit long at 25 minutes, but well worth the look if you’re looking for some interpretation input, and more questions. It’s by Ben Davidson and is about a book that the CIA classified before it could scare the masses back in the 60’s, apparently:

    The other is the pdf that the video is about. The book is called The Adam and Eve Story by a Chan Thomas. Strangely, the first 6 pages are from a magazine before it goes into the actual book. It had been redacted before going public this past June:

    I think you and your friend will find it a very interesting read. Thanks.

    • silver.. read the short book.. ( I don’t categorize that small of a read as a book.. ) I sure don’t know why in the world they classified that particular article… cataclysms of the earth covers it a lot better.. and brings up a whole lot of things most people don’t ever think of.. it was brought up as mandatory class course material and discussion afterwards.. there are literally hundreds and hundreds of studies on the exact same material.. this probably was classified the same way the photo I took of a rust spot on a dumpster was classified.. he classified it himself..
      there is definitely nothing new in this article. and as far as global climate change or a drastic global climate change.. well that is funny a vice president brought that up a few years ago.. even though it had been taught for decades.. LOL LOL LOL and unfortunately he coined it global warming.. you will hear argument after argument etc.. you either believe it or not for me I have my beliefs but that is mine.. it is a natural process and is going to happen no matter what I think that the sheer mass of people and the fact that mankind is kind of like a carpenter ant will have some impact but then the impact is going to happen anyway so why worry about it….
      The guys at NASA are the best and the library at the JPL has a boat load of material you can dive right into and a lot of that has a lot more information than this article.. I absolutely love that organization and have several friends that keep me entertained.. great great organization I am a big BIG fan of NASA.. and whats even better they are KID friendly which I totally adore..Go for it NASA teach the kids expand their minds..
      in the end I just wouldn’t be to worried about what is contained in the article..I would get the book cataclysms of the earth.. you can get it at archive.. but heck its such a good read I would just buy it.. if you want the fictional edition .. get the HAB theory.. great read fun book.. I have that one on the book stand to read for entertainment from time to time.. it does make one think.. but please don’t worry about it..even if it was to happen there isn’t anything anyone can do and you can’t hide from it either.. so go out have a cold drink with friends grill a burger or two and slip some onions and cheese..OOOPS thats the way I like mine.. sorry..

    • I saw this on Davidson’s site today and was fascinated by it. I wish there was an accompanying layer to the story out there, and there probably is with Edgar Cayce, et al, but throwing successive incarnations into the mix would be that much more fascinating. I don’t recall Cayce making reference to multiple cataclysms, though, but it’s been many years since I’ve read his books. Reincarnation is what pulls everything together for me. Not much makes sense without it.

      • Bill, the part that bugs me most, the part we can’t see due to redaction. They shouldn’t have done this. I’d really like to make up my own mind about it, without the CIA Nanny censorship. I think most people with half a brain would be able to read it without wigging out.

      • Bill you have to read the HAB theory.. it is a fictional book based on four different studies that was going on at the time.. the writer was amazing in how he formed it into a great science fiction book..
        Kind of like Doonsbury daily newspaper cartoon.. years ago you could read next weeks news in his cartoons today I use to get a huge thrill out of its coincidence..
        What terrifies me is what the puppeteers are up to.. they may think they are doing great good in their manipulations but the reality of the process of their power and greed is scary .. it should terrify the average millionaire of the top twenty nine percent.. unfortunately they aren’t ready to pull the head out and think about it long term..

        the price is right and fun to keep by the chair for a day when your bored and would like a good entertaining and deep thinking read..

      • Silver – in today’s world you’re probably right but back in the 60s things were very different. I remember my dad and uncle talking in hushed tones about the Birch Society like the room was bugged already. Turns out the “Birchers” were right about a whole lot of things we take as common knowledge now. Cardinal rule then – you did NOT think outside the box! Doing so must be my way of rebelling against the previous generation, LOL.

        Looking – thanks. I don’t read fiction that often but I may put it back for reading after TSHTF. The “One Second After” series is my first move into that territory in a long, long time and it’ll take me quite a while to get through the second and third book. I do miss Doonsbury, though, as you referenced. And Bloom County.

  4. Oil stocks are taking a beating & will create some good profits when the price of oil rebounds. One low price oil stock I like for trading, which use to be a mid price stock with a dividend, is Danbury Resourses DNR. It is currently at $1.86 coming off a high of $6.50 @ 10/9/18. I prefer this type of trading vs. a TQQQ 3X ETF because it takes 6 to 12 months to develop & I don’t have to be real diligent watching the market.

    This correction is creating a nice buying opportunity to selectively pick up some casualties at low prices.

    • ECS……Lately I have been changing my belief of the oil industry in a different direction…. my thoughts are that the oil industry is actually trying to help the President salvage part of our failing economy or at least give him enough of a reprieve to let it go till the next administration is in office. He sure can’t count on any help from congress…..
      The Cost per gallon dropped another nickle today.I personally think that.when the price per gallon gets closer to a buck and a half.. the prices on goods will start to reflect that huge change..Deflation of sorts..I truly don’t think people get just how important that is to the bottom feeders..if you save a hundred or more a month that will give you a hundred or more a month to spend on useless garbage. I will never forget one of my old bosses.. they wrote fictional books that was partially based on the adventures of his family during the depression ( of course the books just like the little house on the prairie books were not totally truthful but an embellishment of the struggles of a family during the depression.. they lived in an old boxcar on an abandoned rail line.. I think he either had twelve or thirteen siblings.anyway one of my coworkers was really in tough shape living in an old run down trailer house that had been abandoned..(I actually adopted his family for my xmas gift one year without him knowing it was me) and it was so bad huge holes in the walls no heat etc.. well I figured.. heck the boss can relate to this.. he lived it first hand..went and brought the guys living conditions to his attention.. the first thing he said.. well he just got paid.. couldn’t understand it.. didn’t have a clue.. real world and fantasy world were at that point in time beyond his grasp. that is what is wrong today.. most people can’t open the box and take a peek at the real world and understand what they are seeing.. their world is wrapped up like a nice neat package and the assumptions are that everyone has the nice neat package.. employers see the average wage..with I think the mental image that the cost of living is different for those that make less money…Never realizing that the cost of living is basically the same well in fact more for those at the bottom .. the figures are different.. but the costs are the same.. many people in higher positions pay way less.. like popcorn shipping peanuts more volume but less weight in comparison.. .
      It doesn’t take many with an iq of twenty and above to see just how much that will affect what is going on in the country at this point in time..
      the cost of a barrel of oil shoots back up.. well lets face it.. our country has had its head where the sun doesn’t shine for decades.. and maybe this is actually showing those that have been tearing it apart with greed.. that they are the ones that will eventually pay the ultimate price for their actions.

  5. Well my way of reading the charts tells me this down should stop for a few days at the s&p 500 between 2400 and 2450. Hard to tell for how long but then we should get ready for a good down. So far there isnt any way to figure weekly or monthlys. But hope everyone has their affairs in order. Just a wild guess but next fall or spring of 21 should have us bottom out for a few years. The timing is just a kinda guess.

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