There is a weak case, but a case nevertheless, to be made that woo-woo upticks may be associated with stock market directional changes.

Over the past two weeks, we have had a major uptick in both personal “woo-woo” along with reader-submitted reports.  These come as the market may have, in this period, flipped from a likely outcome of the “right side of the 1929 replay” to the “left shoulder case.”

(Continues below)

The way to read this chart is as follows:

Long wave economics suggests that the economy goes through “long waves” of interest rates. These may last the Kondratiev cycle (48-64 years) OR there may be a longer, currency-debasement cycle of 83-90 years (Ure,Mazurok 2001).

Because the present interest cycle peaked in 1980, we can estimate the half-cycle length as running from the mid 1930’s to 1980.  This implies that Kondratiev is not “stongly” in play. 

If it is not (although the interest rate “Peak War” (Vietnam) did happen on schedule”) we are still in “the approach” to the next Depression.

When we line up the market break of 1920-1921 with the 2009 Housing bubble collapse, a strong correlation is evident in the chart above.

Initially, we had been considering the “B” case to be a highly possible correlation.  However, with the “B” case in 1929, the event was much shorter lived.

For this reason, we now prefer the “A” case.  This means the markets should, as an aggregate, move much higher over the summer and a Dow in the area of 30,000 could be expected.

There is still SOME support for the “Crash and burn right now case” but that would only become a preferred outcome in the event of “left field events” of sufficient magnitude to dramatically change future expectations.

Possible events of sufficient size might include first-use of nukes in the Middle East by either side of Iran-Israel (with a not to the Biblical Damascus references) or an unexpected change of power in China, Russia, or the United States.

Absent a strong decline in the next three weeks, or so, Ure becomes wildly bullish…at least for a short time.

Two points to be remembered, though.  First is the correlation of woo-woo with a major market trend change as noted in our “Coping” article that follows.

Second, the world is edging very close to fulfilling the prophesy in Isiah 17, that reads in part:

The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.

2 The cities of Aroer are forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make them afraid.

3 The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the Lord of hosts.”

And this circles us back to one of the headlines from this morning: “Iran condemns wave of Israeli air strikes in Syria.”

We do seem to keep moving in the direction of prophesy fulfillment, whether you want to believe it, or not.

Fortunately, Vlad Putin may have read Isiah 17 at some point, too.  That would explain why “Russia, after Netanyahu visit, backs off Syria S-300 missile supplies.”

Occasionally, readers will ask whether Ure wants to see war in the Middle East.  Of course, not.  That said, however, please remember that our outlooks tend to be colored by a lot of history and a good understanding of how the prophesy process works.

And, we’re occasionally quite struck (if not gob-smacked) by how when history seems to be about to come “off the rails” as we have just had a “close encounter in finance,” lately, we do pay attention.

We now return you to the nutty world in progress.  Let’s visit the….

Gun Grabs Don’t Work Department

A liberal mantra for years has been how gun-free societies are safer.  Just earlier this year, Fortune was touting “How Australia All But Ended Gun Violence.

But here we are reading: “Seven Dead in What Could Be Australia’s Worst Mass Shooting in Decades.”

Lemme ask you, “What part of ‘Criminals and Crazies don’t give a shit about laws’ is it that you’re not clear on?”

A Fine Fake News Example

We used to joke back in the rock & roll news days of the 1970’s about how to make up the news.

The concept was simple:  Go to City Hall and make up a story.  Tell one city council member “Did you hear was so-and-so [another council member] was saying about you?” 

Then you trot down the hall to the other member, play them the tape of the first council member blasting them, and Presto!  They go ballistic and you’ve got what?  Hot story from city hall on an otherwise dismal news day.

Looking back, I was a mere 25-year old rnews director of a big rocker at the time and stopped doing it when the ethics of it became clear. It wasn’t. (Some reporters mature, as I discovered.)

But, I laugh when I read today’s desperate pseudo-journos trying to do the same thing.  It’s called (and correctly so!) Fake News.

Here’s a story that shows how the jounokids are working it for fun and ad dollars.

A few days back one of the sleazy media of today made up a story.  Went to the idea that Trump’s Homeland bossette had readied her resignation letter.

The made up, fake news was “confirmed by several sources” but somehow, we never got their names as they were never attached to the story.  It was a baiting and fishing run like our own gambits of the 70’s.  Perhaps it was a psy-op of the Obama Vichy Government…and fed to a sympathetic anti-Trump major New York media outfit already losing readership and ad dollars and thus desperately looking for a way to keep all the readers they can.

Naturally, we then hear the denials in “Homeland Security Department denies secretary Kirstjen Nielsen prepped a resignation letter over criticism from Trump.”

The lesson?  The democrats (and likely the Obama Shadow Government/Deep State) have been pulling every string they can to obstruct Trump and remake the world in their socialist-egalitarian model. Send in Kerry, peddle made-up dossiers…the whole McGillah.

Amazingly, it’s still working, too.

But not for all.  When you see stories that make original claims of this or that, the hand of the latter-day Vichy’s and deep state are often at work.  Media desperate for readers (and thus money) are easily co-opted, time after time.

Trump should put a FISA surveillance on Obama, such is the effort to “take down” America’s elected government.  But, of course, they wont.

It’s all the political version of “Here, want a piece of candy?” used by the stranger passing by attempting to lure a child into a car with ill-intent.

It’s just scaled.

Fresh example is this morning’s “sources” on a Trump staffer attempting a bad joke at John McCain’s expense.

And then we see the continued marketing of Hillary Clinton in a who-cares story about her wearing a scarf.

Hillary wearing a back brace is a non-story.  She’s a has-been* who is clinging to headline-making harder than a Kardashian. Deal with it.

{* has been putting up with Bill, has been SecState, has been a presidential wannabe, has been a senator, has been…well, you get the idea…{

Import-Export Prices

If you want to improve America’s balance sheet, look for imports to cost less and export prices to be going up.  See if you can divine what’s happening from this press release just out:

U.S. import prices increased 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent decline in March. Prices for fuel and nonfuel imports advanced in April. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent in April, after increasing 0.3 percent in March. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports more than offset declining agricultural export prices in April.

Imports

All Imports: Import prices advanced 0.3 percent in April resuming the recent upward trend after declining 0.2 percent the previous month. The March decrease was the first time the index recorded a drop since a 0.2-percent decline in July 2017. Prices for U.S. imports rose 3.3 percent between April 2017 and April 2018.
U.S. import prices have not recorded a 12-month decline since a 0.2-percent decrease for the year ended October 2016.

Exports

All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent in April and have not recorded a decline since June 2017. The monthly advance was driven by higher nonagricultural export prices which more than offset declining agricultural prices. The price index for U.S. exports increased 3.8 percent over the past year, the
largest 12-month increase since a 4.8-percent rise for the year ended November 2011. The index has not recorded a decrease on a 12-month basis since a 0.2-percent decline between November 2015 and November 2016.

Pretty good report.

Dow futures up 30 with 40-minutes to the open.

Political Mileage

Trump to sit down with major automakers on Friday on fuel rules.

Does Elon get to go to these things?  I mean if he wanted?

Philly Oops!

Jury awards $10M to Philadelphia man over wrongful arrest.”

Useful Notes

Jeep recalling 240,000 Liberty SUVs to fix defective suspension part.

Trump sculpture on Arctic glacier planned as climate-change protest.  Our Obama drawing in the Sahara won’t last that long.

Delaware becomes first state to fully ban child marriage… you mean it isn’t?

And China’s multi-story hog hotels elevate industrial farms to new levels. Except America got there first.  We have multistory geek hotels in all the Silicon Cities.

Moron Monday, Peoplenomics tomorrow.

Ideally, we’d like to pull back a bit today, late,  but for now, bullish is our outlook until late summer. Subject to change with events, of course.

The next world-ending crisis should begin to rumble into the headlines over the summer…

Markets, Magic, and Woo-Woo
Coping: Another "Reality Crack" Appears