Markets (and Woo-Woo) Point Higher

There is a weak case, but a case nevertheless, to be made that woo-woo upticks may be associated with stock market directional changes.

Over the past two weeks, we have had a major uptick in both personal “woo-woo” along with reader-submitted reports.  These come as the market may have, in this period, flipped from a likely outcome of the “right side of the 1929 replay” to the “left shoulder case.”

(Continues below)

The way to read this chart is as follows:

Long wave economics suggests that the economy goes through “long waves” of interest rates. These may last the Kondratiev cycle (48-64 years) OR there may be a longer, currency-debasement cycle of 83-90 years (Ure,Mazurok 2001).

Because the present interest cycle peaked in 1980, we can estimate the half-cycle length as running from the mid 1930’s to 1980.  This implies that Kondratiev is not “stongly” in play. 

If it is not (although the interest rate “Peak War” (Vietnam) did happen on schedule”) we are still in “the approach” to the next Depression.

When we line up the market break of 1920-1921 with the 2009 Housing bubble collapse, a strong correlation is evident in the chart above.

Initially, we had been considering the “B” case to be a highly possible correlation.  However, with the “B” case in 1929, the event was much shorter lived.

For this reason, we now prefer the “A” case.  This means the markets should, as an aggregate, move much higher over the summer and a Dow in the area of 30,000 could be expected.

There is still SOME support for the “Crash and burn right now case” but that would only become a preferred outcome in the event of “left field events” of sufficient magnitude to dramatically change future expectations.

Possible events of sufficient size might include first-use of nukes in the Middle East by either side of Iran-Israel (with a not to the Biblical Damascus references) or an unexpected change of power in China, Russia, or the United States.

Absent a strong decline in the next three weeks, or so, Ure becomes wildly bullish…at least for a short time.

Two points to be remembered, though.  First is the correlation of woo-woo with a major market trend change as noted in our “Coping” article that follows.

Second, the world is edging very close to fulfilling the prophesy in Isiah 17, that reads in part:

The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.

2 The cities of Aroer are forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make them afraid.

3 The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the Lord of hosts.”

And this circles us back to one of the headlines from this morning: “Iran condemns wave of Israeli air strikes in Syria.”

We do seem to keep moving in the direction of prophesy fulfillment, whether you want to believe it, or not.

Fortunately, Vlad Putin may have read Isiah 17 at some point, too.  That would explain why “Russia, after Netanyahu visit, backs off Syria S-300 missile supplies.”

Occasionally, readers will ask whether Ure wants to see war in the Middle East.  Of course, not.  That said, however, please remember that our outlooks tend to be colored by a lot of history and a good understanding of how the prophesy process works.

And, we’re occasionally quite struck (if not gob-smacked) by how when history seems to be about to come “off the rails” as we have just had a “close encounter in finance,” lately, we do pay attention.

We now return you to the nutty world in progress.  Let’s visit the….

Gun Grabs Don’t Work Department

A liberal mantra for years has been how gun-free societies are safer.  Just earlier this year, Fortune was touting “How Australia All But Ended Gun Violence.

But here we are reading: “Seven Dead in What Could Be Australia’s Worst Mass Shooting in Decades.”

Lemme ask you, “What part of ‘Criminals and Crazies don’t give a shit about laws’ is it that you’re not clear on?”

A Fine Fake News Example

We used to joke back in the rock & roll news days of the 1970’s about how to make up the news.

The concept was simple:  Go to City Hall and make up a story.  Tell one city council member “Did you hear was so-and-so [another council member] was saying about you?” 

Then you trot down the hall to the other member, play them the tape of the first council member blasting them, and Presto!  They go ballistic and you’ve got what?  Hot story from city hall on an otherwise dismal news day.

Looking back, I was a mere 25-year old rnews director of a big rocker at the time and stopped doing it when the ethics of it became clear. It wasn’t. (Some reporters mature, as I discovered.)

But, I laugh when I read today’s desperate pseudo-journos trying to do the same thing.  It’s called (and correctly so!) Fake News.

Here’s a story that shows how the jounokids are working it for fun and ad dollars.

A few days back one of the sleazy media of today made up a story.  Went to the idea that Trump’s Homeland bossette had readied her resignation letter.

The made up, fake news was “confirmed by several sources” but somehow, we never got their names as they were never attached to the story.  It was a baiting and fishing run like our own gambits of the 70’s.  Perhaps it was a psy-op of the Obama Vichy Government…and fed to a sympathetic anti-Trump major New York media outfit already losing readership and ad dollars and thus desperately looking for a way to keep all the readers they can.

Naturally, we then hear the denials in “Homeland Security Department denies secretary Kirstjen Nielsen prepped a resignation letter over criticism from Trump.”

The lesson?  The democrats (and likely the Obama Shadow Government/Deep State) have been pulling every string they can to obstruct Trump and remake the world in their socialist-egalitarian model. Send in Kerry, peddle made-up dossiers…the whole McGillah.

Amazingly, it’s still working, too.

But not for all.  When you see stories that make original claims of this or that, the hand of the latter-day Vichy’s and deep state are often at work.  Media desperate for readers (and thus money) are easily co-opted, time after time.

Trump should put a FISA surveillance on Obama, such is the effort to “take down” America’s elected government.  But, of course, they wont.

It’s all the political version of “Here, want a piece of candy?” used by the stranger passing by attempting to lure a child into a car with ill-intent.

It’s just scaled.

Fresh example is this morning’s “sources” on a Trump staffer attempting a bad joke at John McCain’s expense.

And then we see the continued marketing of Hillary Clinton in a who-cares story about her wearing a scarf.

Hillary wearing a back brace is a non-story.  She’s a has-been* who is clinging to headline-making harder than a Kardashian. Deal with it.

{* has been putting up with Bill, has been SecState, has been a presidential wannabe, has been a senator, has been…well, you get the idea…{

Import-Export Prices

If you want to improve America’s balance sheet, look for imports to cost less and export prices to be going up.  See if you can divine what’s happening from this press release just out:

U.S. import prices increased 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent decline in March. Prices for fuel and nonfuel imports advanced in April. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent in April, after increasing 0.3 percent in March. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports more than offset declining agricultural export prices in April.


All Imports: Import prices advanced 0.3 percent in April resuming the recent upward trend after declining 0.2 percent the previous month. The March decrease was the first time the index recorded a drop since a 0.2-percent decline in July 2017. Prices for U.S. imports rose 3.3 percent between April 2017 and April 2018.
U.S. import prices have not recorded a 12-month decline since a 0.2-percent decrease for the year ended October 2016.


All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent in April and have not recorded a decline since June 2017. The monthly advance was driven by higher nonagricultural export prices which more than offset declining agricultural prices. The price index for U.S. exports increased 3.8 percent over the past year, the
largest 12-month increase since a 4.8-percent rise for the year ended November 2011. The index has not recorded a decrease on a 12-month basis since a 0.2-percent decline between November 2015 and November 2016.

Pretty good report.

Dow futures up 30 with 40-minutes to the open.

Political Mileage

Trump to sit down with major automakers on Friday on fuel rules.

Does Elon get to go to these things?  I mean if he wanted?

Philly Oops!

Jury awards $10M to Philadelphia man over wrongful arrest.”

Useful Notes

Jeep recalling 240,000 Liberty SUVs to fix defective suspension part.

Trump sculpture on Arctic glacier planned as climate-change protest.  Our Obama drawing in the Sahara won’t last that long.

Delaware becomes first state to fully ban child marriage… you mean it isn’t?

And China’s multi-story hog hotels elevate industrial farms to new levels. Except America got there first.  We have multistory geek hotels in all the Silicon Cities.

Moron Monday, Peoplenomics tomorrow.

Ideally, we’d like to pull back a bit today, late,  but for now, bullish is our outlook until late summer. Subject to change with events, of course.

The next world-ending crisis should begin to rumble into the headlines over the summer…

39 thoughts on “Markets (and Woo-Woo) Point Higher”

    • Leo: Would it be possible to interpret this information in realtion to the stock market. Thank you.

    • Actually ‘big world events’ are likely because all three countries are being stressed by both internal and external forces – the usual restraining forces (namely the United States and Europe with the added involvement of Russia and China) are at ‘odds’. Some people have wished for this – the old wisdom of “being careful what you wish for” applies. You may get it ‘in spades’ (both cards and the tool).

  1. You say “The democrats (and likely the Obama Shadow Government/Deep State) have been pulling every string they can to obstruct Trump and remake the world in their socialist-egalitarian model.”
    And I wonder, when will they stop? We know they won’t. Leftist violence is trending up but hidden or justified by the biased media.
    I see fertile ground for growing those death-squads so prevalent in other failed/ing states. Plan accordingly.

    • Confabulation’ comes from the Latin fabula (‘story’) which can be either a historical account or a fairytale. When we confabulate, we tell a story that is fictional, while believing that it is a true story. As we are not aware that our story is fictional, this is very different from a lie: we have no intention to deceive. So in confabulation there is a mismatch between what we aim to do (tell a true story) and what we end up doing (tell a fictional story). We tend to confabulate when we are asked to explain our choices because we don’t always know the factors responsible for our choices. Yet, when asked why we made a choice, we offer an explanation. The explanation can sound plausible, but is not grounded in the relevant evidence because it doesn’t take into account some of the factors determining our choices.

  2. “We used to joke back in the rock & roll news days of the 1970’s about how to make up the news.”

    LOL LOL what I would do is stand on a downtown corner and look up.. eventually someone would come up and ask.. what are you looking at.. then you say.. I don’t know it was there a second ago.. kind of a silver thing in the sky.. before you know it there was a whole bunch standing there gauking into the sky talking about that silver thing in the sky.. LOL .. while I would go over and have a soda at the restaurant and watch the fun.. the other thing was the old guys would sit down and talk the weather over coffee.. so we went and in each of the guys rain-gauge we would dump some out drill holes in some and add water to some then go into the coffee house and listen to them argue over how much rain we got.. LOL
    the old smart azz in me back then during the dull boring summer time..

    • I worked on a dam construction crew out west when I was a teenager.. anyway a bunch of kids got bored and decided to be smart azzes.. so they got their dad’s equipment went and moved the one room school house two miles over then set the playground equipment and everything exactly how it was at the old spot and cleaned up the old area put fence up where the gate was it looked as if it had never been there..
      anyway.. LOL a year later I was reading fate magazine.. and here was this story of the schoolhouse that I knew was a joke that mysteriously vanished from its one location and was in another LOL LOL LOL

      • LOOTB

        I thought I was the only one that did these crazy things in my youth. I hung out with a couple of other guys that were also crazy (not sure if that is politically correct to say now).

        We would be together in a crowded bus or mall or whatever. Two of us would begin pointing at our third buddy and shouting “Hey isn’t that Ron Johnson (or any other name we picked that day)?” We would badger back and forth and finally deciding that it really was the music star we thought it was. We would run up to our friend with pen and paper and get his autograph and asked him if he would sing his hit song.

        Soon the crowd would gather and our friend would be handing out autographs for the next few minutes. We did rotate with each other but had a lot of fun watching the sheep and wondering how many of them went home with a treasured autograph of someone no one had ever heard of.

        The early days of fake news.

      • Reminds me of a time when I worked at Fairchild Stratos. One of our vendors parked his VW Bug in the alley between the two main bldgs. One of the guys took the big forklift and placed the VW on the flat tin roof over the shipping and receiving office. When the vendor came out to leave, he said where’s my car. We all just stood there and without moving our heads and just our eyes, we looked up at the roof.

        That corner on Sepulveda and Rosecranse is now a shopping center business park and I cant find much history on what happened to one of the best jobs and companies I ever worked for. Nice memories though. Seems we look back more than forward, the older we get.

  3. George, it is good to hear you say this.

    “Absent a strong decline in the next three weeks, or so, Ure becomes wildly bullish…at least for a short time.”

    I am looking for a downturn before the major upturn to URE INDEX 30,000. Again, this may be wishful thinking because I raised some cash to take advantage of a downturn.

  4. Does it make sense to short the market just over the weekend? I see reasons for the market to open 1,000 points lower on Monday but no reason for the market to open 1,000 points higher on Monday. Any opinions?

    P.s. Speaking of reasons?! ;-)))

    • Imagine that. I mean a pyramid and at the top is a bank or family who have infiltrated most countries and they are able to control the religions the right to control the laws that were able to control the wars and they’re also able to control the outer space programs.

      Dial with the advancing technology they at the top of the pyramid have the ability to see you from the sky and scope down on you wherever you’re at and they have the ability when they inject you as a baby with a vaccine to put an RFID chip in you.

      , but don’t worry as long as you’re still alive they have the ability to track you and read your mind yes you are part of The Matrix and each day that you exist The Matrix grows and each day that you listen to the TV and the radio the more you are controlled by their agenda.

      The rest of the space should be for you to fill in the blanks what you believe what you don’t believe and what you proven and how you’ve come about to have that belief system when you wake up every morning.

      Red pill or blue pill seems that a lot of the people are starting to take the red pill as more and more people wake up I have a half sister is in her seventies and I mentioned some of the things that were talking about and she said no way but now she’s understanding how the Matrix works.

      Because I gave her a choice the red pill or the blue pill and the red pill really wakes you up if you’re a young person and you’ve been taught all those things that you went to school for and went to college for and then when you wake up you’ll like wow this is real is it me how could this whole world I mean the population of the world as such it happens because people’s thoughts have wings the people at the top of the pyramid wanted to have power over you and the way they did that is by taking over the financial institutions which means they created the Federal Reserve instead of us creating our own money and lots of people have been assassinated including John F Kennedy.

  5. George,

    Could the Israeli “mistake” that you and Cliff spoke about years ago still be in play?


  6. To all those in cryptoland, digibyte will not be hitting $900 next year , it’ll only be hitting $9 which is still a good investment because it’s about 4 cents now.

    • Where’s the best place to buy that should I decide to gamble…to the contrary side, there’s a group called The Casey Group, claiming the G20 meeting on July 21 is going to outlaw 99% of all cryptos including bitcoin…have you heard that?

      • Yeah I heard of that they’re going to Outlaw it on July 21st well all I can say is cryptocurrencies don’t need Banks so there’s no way to Outlaw cryptocurrencies except where you going to cash them in at in the meantime if you have a car and I want to buy it I can transfer funds from my crypto account to yours on the blockchain and the government has no say so we could go that route but the government is taking up with cryptos the major Banks yeah I heard of that they’re going to outlawed on July 21st well all I can say is cliff told current she’s don’t need banks so there’s no way to outlaw Crypt occurrences except where you going to cash a minute in the meantime if you have a car and I want to buy it I can transfer funds from my crib toy account to yours on the block chain and the government has a say so we could go that route but the government is taking up with Christos the major banks or gradually going to that and eventually China will too but the main place that has the most and will be the most wealthy is Korean North Korea.

        Which was facilitated by the CIA to run against the Americans anyway they have the most invested in it the Koreans do and if you look on your phone your cell phone you’ll have a Korean language that if you try to take it off for your cell phone if so phone doesn’t work right as good because the Koreans have infiltrated that through the CIA and do another organization see how that works

      • I do not know where the best place to buy that is but you have to start someplace and coinbase is where you get your feet wet and from there you need to get a trezor wallet Cold Storage something that ship to you that plugs into your computer.

        Every day there’s more and more exchanges getting on the bang and wagon.

        The only recommendation I would give you is to look up digibyte and to find out the exchange that are exchanging it and then look at the ones that have the most capitalization that would be the one who has more assets when you cash out.

        But if you buy into coinbase and then you sell and then take your Vault and go to another place from what I’ve gathered the best thing to do is have the trezor wallet and each time you use your wallet you change the password on everything change your password on your email change your password on the wallet and any other associations that way the hackers have the hardest time of hacking into your account ask George if he knows about packing stuff I’m just repeating what I have heard.

      • In fact when I first tried to get on the internet and coinbase was overwhelming and we couldn’t sign on for like 3 weeks there I went to the black market and yes you can find and buy Bitcoin on the black market so there’s no way that the establishment can do away with cryptocurrency

  7. Speaking of “Woo-Woo,” I just went to the bathroom and my laptop (which I used for >5 plus years!) shuts off regularly, which it never did before!! I turned on my TV and it started with 150 plus channels that I never watch; But my personal pain issues seem to be much more important than “Woo-Woo.”

    • I AM NOT A DR., but (& this is not medical advice) try Magnesium. I was in a bad car accident many years ago but its the re-injury over years that nearly did me in. Magnesium tablets are cheap, available at any store like Walmart, and works for me. It is apparently even given by I.V. to patients with end stage cancer like pancreatic. Google Dr Oz magnesium for pain relief & a writeup from one of his participating MDs Jacob Teitelbaum, MD should appear. We are all mostly deficient in magnesium, and it is the antithesis to calcium which causes muscle contraction. Magnesium also apparently dulls the nerve signals that relay pain information to your brain. I take one magnesium oxide twice/day. I also sleep better. Be careful not to take too much. It works as well for me as muscle relaxants. BUT it will take about 6 weeks to build up in your system. Be a little more cautious if you have heart disease. Remember I’m not a Dr.

  8. Bruno: I Don’t see anything newswise or chartwise to make the DOW lose a 1,000 points on the Monday open. The charts still show the market in an uptrend, but not a 1,000 points on the open.

    • I agree with your opinion about the DOW. When I wrote a “Black Swan Event” was on my mind (no need to discuss}. Thank you for paying attention. However, taking a short position just over the weekend looks attractive to me.

  9. Hi George,
    Every adult in Switzerland, man or woman, has an automatic weapon at home and has been trained in its use, in case of invasion. You never hear about a mass shooting in Switzerland though. Why not?

    • Get Ure facts a little more accurate…or Go with just what “cranks your tractor”:
      The Swiss army has long been a militia trained and structured to rapidly respond against foreign aggression. Swiss males grow up expecting to undergo basic military training, usually at age 20, after which Swiss men remain part of the “militia” in reserve capacity until age 30 (or age 34 for officers). Each such individual is required to keep his army-issued personal weapon (the 5.56x45mm Sig 550 rifle for enlisted personnel and/or the 9mm SIG-Sauer P220 semi-automatic pistol for officers, medical and postal personnel) at home.

      When their period of service has ended, militiamen have the choice of keeping their personal weapon and other selected items of their equipment. In cases of retention, the rifle is sent to the weapons factory where the fully automatic function is removed; the rifle is then returned to the discharged owner as a semi-automatic or self-loading rifle.

      Switzerland has one of the highest gun ownership rates in the world, with 45.7 guns per 100 residents (ranking below only the United States, Serbia, and Yemen in this measurement)

    • easy.most of the altercations are in my opinion usually manipulations by the very few in control that lurk under the current.. the people there have respect for the gun and their fellow man. there is a lack of puppet-masters in the back ground controlling and a government the represents its citizens. ( the puppet-masters need them to do under the current banking)

  10. There’s a new cell phone that’s to be made by IBM and stellar,
    IBM is the one with the three blue lines

  11. George you might want to think about extending the comment column from 21 to 1021 or something like that with a roll down bar because most of us have no idea who’s commenting on what we commented on because it’s only twenty one of them there as your population grows so does your responses and comments

    • In other words imagine a window and only one comment was able to appear at a time and everyone who’s subscribing or punching into your website has the option of clicking one at a time down to find out who the last person was that was commenting and down and down and down and down and down so a person would have to spend most of the time clicking the related or even that you said do you see where I’m coming from old buddy old pal old George from Texas.

      No I’m not coming down there to help you when all else fails so that you can find your way to the toilet ,
      I have enough problems of my own in that department hahaha

  12. In July/August world events will likely cause renewed stock market decline, as world events in Middle East will be greatly affected by Eclipses. Additionally gravity ruling planet Saturn will be making close aspect to USA Venus and Jupiter July through November. So USA sense of well being will be brought down dramatically at that time and this will bring down stock market and likely begin Depression.

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