This being Adolph Hitler’s birthday, we have a natural inclination to be especially on guard against evil and its followers this week.
And although we still h0ld that events which [MIGHT] lead to WW III will not happen until Orthodox Easter (May 2), what concerns us now is the degree of coming ripples in the fabric of mass consciousness.
This assumes, of course, that there is such a thing.
We see it in a number of “story clusters” passed off as “news.” There’s Minneapolis and there’s Ukraine. There’s Taiwan and there’s Pelosi’s “razor wire coup” in tax & spend land; bound and determine to hike taxes, start war, and pack the Supreme Court.
Which gets us to an American Values crisis:
- We hold that Maxine Waters should be censured for inciting more “violence to come.” She’s a hate-peddler supporting violence, a divider not unifier.
- Joe Biden’s siding with Ukraine and playing demonize the Russians ignores upcoming events in the region, including a chance later this week that Belarus (north of Ukraine) will throw-in with Russia. The West just tried to overthrow Belarus and botched it. Which could leave NATO shut out of the rich petroleum reserves of eastern Ukraine. Not particularly valuable now, but ask as depletion runs its course. When war comes to the region it, too, will be about money, power, or self-aggrandizement. But, isn’t it always?
- The Supreme Court packing? That will f*ck things up, even more. Just another example of Digital Mob Rule – DMR. Something the crooked left has gotten so good at, as to pervert values like total equality, sound money, and something we’ll get into more in Peoplenomics tomorrow: “Enoughness.”
- Pols – Lying through their teeth: In the meantime, the Bidenista’s are obfuscating the Mexican/South American slow-motion invasion of America. By axing the clear, unequivocal term “illegal alien” from govspeak.
The applicable Ure family saying about inability to speak Truth is? “They couldn’t call it shit, even if they had a mouthful of it.”
Thus act crooks redefining language for high-level manipulations toward the take-down of America 1. Not sure what to call this rising successor, but “America” is not longer an accurate description in values-based language.
Like golf, we can bitch all we want. But the balls are all in the rough now. Which gets us to the matter of?
Sure, you have to park that federal “gimme money” somewhere. Anyone who is not debt-free is a damned fool if they don’t reduce their debt burden and spend any leftovers on improving their education (hence, value).
Instead, a fair piece of the Made-Up-Money has landed in the market. But with no more dispensations in sight, the market may be coming back to reality:
There is a short whiteboard session to fully grok what’s going on.
First, we seem to have completed (right half) a five-wave Elliott sequence when we use the lens of our Aggregate Index.
Elliott purists won’t like a fifth wave ending in a 3-step move (a-b-c) so the short to medium term might ideally see a decline to the red “critical support” bar on the lower trend line. Then, with luck, one more heave-ho to the upside.
The lower red bar – a good drop down from here – is where the real battle over future could be fought. It’s the top of a smaller Wave 1 and if a decline takes out the first red bar, well…. Then, if the second red bar fails, we can start thinking about what the world would be like with prices halved.
Think about how these would feel:
- A Dow in the 16,000’s.
- An S&P 500 which is under 2,000.
- Bond rates well over 2%. Yesterday the 10-year closed at 1.6%.
- While inflation ticks up for a short burst to over 10%.
I don’t know about cryptos, but a note from my deflationist pal Jas informed me of how cryptos are really doing in India:
“Yesterday, a desi friend asked me about Bitcoin, and I told him that I don’t understand enough to have an educated opinion. Then he mentioned that Indian govt is clamping down on it and I guessed that it is because of the “black market, or #2” i.e., undeclared, money.
One thing is clear that it is God’s gift to money launderers and blackmail artists. Allah o’ akbar! God is great.
God loves moneyed crooks a lot more than honest hardworking people!!!!!!!!!!!! If you don’t get it then you are blind to reality. Moneyed crooks in India have lot of #2 money. And I know…”
Since you don’t know (Dr.) Jas (a godlike fellow in DSP’s evolution at the Big C router company), trust me when I tell you his family has hundreds of years experience in money-lending on the sub-continent. Jas has forgotten more about finance than most ever learn. And he laddered bonds down from their top in the early 1980’s with something he called the Six-Pack strategy.
Jas’ assertion of the big role of BTC in blackmail has shown up in at least a half-dozen emails this week. “Send us xxx BTC or we will…” kind of thing. Dirty criminal money is making a first-class run at driving out government money. If you own cryptos, you’ve already decided who to throw in with. Ure’s advice remains unchanged. We never bet against the side with an army, navy, and the power to tax and convict.
In Ure’s Shorts
Is there a “docker” in the house? Historic backup at Port of Oakland could be bad news for consumers.
You do know what an expectorant is, right? Russia Expels 2 Bulgarian Diplomats in Tit-for-Tat Move.
Move over Tesla! VW Beetle rebooted as Punk Cat electric car.
Speaking of Musk – my buddy Michael’s ground station for StarLink showed up (finally!) We’ll be passing on info as he gets it set up and working with his home’s big mesh network. Looking forward to ours.
What Matters: Liars & Rent
#1 We like to mention that governments – and this is a worldwide problem – usually are very Big on telling their subjects what to do. But, when comes to government following its own rules on things like climate, the results are terrible.
Now, this story is about the climate “do as we say, not as we do” in England, but the concept, in our view is widely extensible.
As age 73 inches toward me (and Elaine hits her next milestone from 1943 this week)- we’ve come to appreciate that there is a long Truth Season in politics. It runs from the day of taking office to about 9-months prior to a re-election campaign. The Liar’s Season runs from when someone files to run for office, until the votes are counted. Then all bets are off.
#2 Renting Your Life is growing. My buddy (the Major) recently had a problem with Lightroom 6. He likes the product – a lot. But, even though it’s not officially supported anymore, he received exceptional support from Adobe (India) which got his install squared-away.
But in the process, he was struck by the move of software companies to the “rent to use” model. Adobe is just about all subscription now.
Major’s happy with Foxit Phantom which is still an “ownable” .PDF product as far as I know. Grownup Adobe is a rental. We really like Microsoft Office, but again, subscriptions are becoming the new way of doing business. Themes like “recurring revenue” and “customer for life” are creeping up.
Mainly in the business side – for now. But it’s moving in from areas I’ve worked in before, like higher ed. ERP. Annual model there works well.
Personal Bottom line: Free cash flow in your personal life will get much more valuable in the future. With new self-driving cars coming, we expect ownership sharing (fractions) will come. Who can park $100,000 in the driveway?
Software is already going down the “rent to use” path. And with home ownership likely to disappear for millions in the great inflation to come, so too, renting a roof will become even more widespread.
Even things like power bills are being averaged (monthly level billing) because people don’t plan their lives well. And, while we love to write two checks a year for insurance, the number of people paying a monthly car insurance or home insurance bill is absurd.
Name of the game – when comes to owning your own future – is to avoid payment commitments of all sorts. In order to accumulate wealth, going with a 10-year old word processor (rather than an annual rental bill) might make sense. You can’t type any faster on the newest, latest, greatest. Even voice recognition is slower than typing – once you go through error correction.
Ure family wisdom is “You can only spend it once.” Try to buy permanence, not transitory feel-goods. Lowest cost for a minimum required outcome. If you can’t “own it” don’t “buy” it.
Write when you get rich,