I warned you (before the Friday Open last week) that we would be seeing a “crash window” open this week. And (try not to look surprised here) the Dow futures earlier were down more than 500 points. And losses in Europe were in the 2 1/2 percent range. Which might ‘cast down 700 – or more – today.
This is not a time to be a coward, however. It is a time to plan carefully for a future that has become decidedly “unfriendly” for us “go-along-to-get-along” people.
When I looked at the Kitco feed of the price of gold this morning, I took this as a hint:
I apologize to Peoplenomics subscribers for sharing so much “out here in the open” but I believe there’s a time to share in order to serve. This morning has that “feel” to it. Besides, there will be much more to talk about Wednesday – of that you may be sure.
The Future First
For new readers, some of the basic of the UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics viewpoint:
- We believe that while markets do not precisely replay previous times, there is often a definitive “rhyme about them.”
- Then, because of intermarket arbitrage, you can’t be guided by narrow indices. The Dow Jones Industrials are only 30-stocks. Out of thousands.
- To clean up analysis, we developed an Aggregate Index more than 20-years ago and have been accumulating data ever since.
- Last – but key – is that present data can be “normed” to previous market excursions. Helps one remain sane in markets that are not. With me so far?
Therefore, when we line up the 1920-1921 market lows and overlay this with the 2009 Housing Bubble bottom and subsequent action, we can see a dandy – and potentially useful comparison where we can pencil outlooks shaping up in the news flow.
To Summarize how the next 90-days MIGHT roll:
- Historical data hints that the market will go down – relative to Friday – perhaps 700 points – and maybe more.
- However, we anticipate a “turn-around Tuesday” because Fed chair J. Powell will be selling the “don’t panic message” on the Hill Tuesday and Wednesday.
- This could even lead to a rally even into next week…
- However we expect the replacement nomination for RGB on the Supreme Court will lead to some of the worst examples ever of “political stupidity” ever witnessed.
- The chart shows selling may continue more than expected ahead of the election…
- But, just before? Perhaps a relief rally. (“Thankfully this shit’s over…”)
- But then – and no surprise to this – we ought to see a “combination of ingredients recommended by 9 out of 10 crash doctors…”
- Election challenges in the courts.
- Violence and rioting in the streets.
- Threat of martial law.
- Attack on Electoral College
- Stacking the Supreme Court with additional jurists to water down a Trump Court and get back to a socialist-kangaroo model.
- But if Trump “wins” the R’s will own the Depression that’s coming anyway because of consumer super-saturation and no new “gotta have its” to buy.”
- Then we get Wave 2 (in Elliott it will be a 3, but media’s stupid on such things…)
Which means a terrible time for the economy into the foreseeable future. Both parties will have blood on their hands. (Cheerful, huh?)
Why is it March 17, 1930?
Oh… that is easy. And this is an auspicious day. Because today – in our Aggregate work – a drop 50 points lower than the futures – will bring us back to the same levels as the All-Time-High on February 19th. And that’s after tossing (pissing-away?) $6-8 trillion is it into economic stimulus?
Let’s zoom in to the alignment of the all time high this year with the all time high in 1929 and see how Ben Bernanke’s L4L (lower for longer) really has worked out:
There’s good news – and bad – about the L4L approach. The further good news is we are not in rioting and mass demonstrations in DC yet and there’s something of “normalcy bias” on a roll. People are still mainly in their homes and not out plotting neighborhood defense with the equally armed people across the street.
The bad news is that this has come at some terrible cost and frankly, we are expecting all kinds of public push-back next year come tax time, depending on how the post-election handling (milking?) of the public to cost-shift the pandemic and economic consequences onto the back of us working people goes.
The nightmare is a democrat sweep – which would be highly inflationary – because that is one of the few accounting solutions to massive debt that makes sense.
Remember the 1980’s and the Nuevo Peso is Mexico when they got into trouble? Giv de the left-wingers in “The Squid” (sic) we wouldn’t be surprised to see that one pulled out of the hat in the 2021-2022 region.
Nuevo Peso School
Extreme blogs all over the net yammer and fear-monger endlessly about a coming “Global Reset” and how it will all steal us blind. Sure, it will, but within some bounds. There’s much to be learned from a Wiki of Mexico’s experience 25-years ago:
“Throughout most of the 20th century, the Mexican peso remained one of the more stable currencies in Latin America, since the economy did not experience periods of hyperinflation common to other countries in the region. However, after the oil crisis of the late 1970s, Mexico defaulted on its external debt in 1982, and as a result the country suffered a severe case of capital flight, followed by several years of inflation and devaluation, until a government economic strategy called the “Stability and Economic Growth Pact” (Pacto de estabilidad y crecimiento económico, PECE) was adopted under President Carlos Salinas. On January 1, 1993, the Bank of Mexico introduced a new currency, the nuevo peso (“new peso”, or MXN), written “N$” followed by the numerical amount. One new peso, or N$1.00, was equal to 1000 of the obsolete MXP pesos.
On January 1, 1996, the modifier nuevo was dropped from the name, and new coins and banknotes – identical in every respect to the 1993 issue, with the exception of the now absent word “nuevo” – were put into circulation. The ISO 4217 code, however, remained unchanged as MXN.”
Ah…notice that last line? The ISO Code didn’t change? Because even though the NP was not the same thing as the old – debt-logged one – the Globalists have no interesting in being totally candid with “mere peeps.”
Remember how the NASDAQ wasn’t talked about four a couple of years when how many trillions of investor money blew-over in the DotCom collapse 2000-2003? Poof – nothing to see here – move along.
Works every time – including times ahead. Trust me on this.
A Few More Particulars
We don’t offer market advice. I use all of these tools to manage our tiny nest egg.
I mean, seriously: Don’t take economic advice from a guy who lives in a double-wide mobile home out in the sticks…that’d be crazy! (Even if the “double-wide” has a recording studio, electronics lab, tons of solar, and comes with a very well equipped shop and equipment all oriented toward down-scaling and survival… Obviously the owner of this output has a deep distrust of media which he was once part of…and government, too, since it’s now “urinalism” not journalism and in politics it’s all pay-to-play…)
Here’s how it looks to this kind of
person nut – and it’s definitely not what you’re likely to see on the mainstream media – yet:
Let’s run through the Notes:
- No 1: All time high of market – Sept. 2, 2020.
- No 2: Wave 1 down low.
- No 3: Minimum Elliott downside (where 1=3)
- No 4: More usual Wave 3 where 3= 1.5 x Wave 1
- No 5: This low looks like 26,500 to 27,000. We’ll be a lot more specific on the subscriber report Wednesday.
So there you have it. Cherry on top.
With one final asterisk: If J. Powell doesn’t get it pretty close to exactly right on the hill, then the Crash scenario continues since markets don’t crash from their tops. They crash when at bottoms.
Side of CFNAI
Chicago Fed National Activity Index just out:
“Led by some further moderation in the growth of production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.79 in August from +2.54 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but all four categories decreased from July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +3.05 in August from +4.23 in July.
After the data, Dow futures were still down almost 600.
Beta – Disappointment Would Be Good
Houston was supposed to be slammed this morning with Tropical Storm Beta coming ashore. Little slow showing up – which is good. More time to prep. B
Up here, some 180 miles north of Houston, we still have our satcoms up and not even sprinkles yet. Sure hope our friends in Houston don’t get too bad a dump. Should get rolling after lunch sometime.
Know why it’s not here yet? I washed out the rain gauge Sunday. Whenever I get ready for real storms…bupkis! We still have a forecast of a couple of inches, though:
(We’re in the “x-box”, so very fortunate for us. We appreciate the soaking giving us a wide berth.)
Herding the Sheep
Oh, God, here we go. What can the news worry itself (and in turn us) over while they continue “Crisis Rolling” which is the key tactic of the “Down-Conditioning” strategy?
Who do they think they are, Portland, or something? Police detain over 400 during Sunday protests in Belarus.
Who do they think they are, Belarus, or something? Protesters gather at Unthank Park in North Portland, march to sit-in at Mississippi Avenue house. Still, our hat’s off to this fellow: Black Man Rails Against Portland Protesters: ‘You Ain’t From Here’.
Maybe we shouldn’t have done the Sunday feature on our sharpening bench: Hopefully only coincident with this South Bay story: Fremont: Fight leads to stabbing injuring four
News for Thinking People
Not all hype and BS though it sure seems that way at times:
Geophysical Survey May Have Found Secret Chambers In King Tut’s Tomb. Akashic records?
And in case you hadn’t guessed: U.S. Medical School Applications Soar in Covid-19 Era. My point? Medicine: It’s where the money is…
Off to watch my shorts now…er…so to speak!
Write when you get rich,