Market Dart Toss – Trouble by Fall

Fall begins this year on Thursday, September 22nd. We’re already planning ahead.

In my humble view of things, we’ll be dam lucky if the market is anywhere near present levels by then.  It’s not like markets won’t decline; we’re at the point of only quibbling over the slope of decline.

Here’s how our Aggregate Index is scoring things today with a dearth of economic news:

Our Aggregate Index since 11/8/2021 reveals what looks to us like a major Wave 3 down which is likely to begin to accelerate down in coming months. This outlook, however, does not obviate countertrend rallies which can be brutal.

As can be seen above, our ultimate downside estimate level for this wave is shown by the orange circle.  However, we may have a bit of additional rally to extend the time base, and thus the lower declining trend channel line down to where the orange circle is on – or just above – the trend. Month or two?

This is not (and nothing here ever is) financial advice.  Any more than Joe Biden falling off his bike would be considered a course in BMX wheelman skills.

Discerning Inflation is Key

Our problem in setting out a more specific outlook is problematic because of inflation.  Which, in turn, is based on how much money the Federal government has to “make up” in order to balance its books.

One indicator of “how the war is going on that front” is seen in this morning’s just-out Current Account Balance report.

Yes, that’s right.  We don’t make much in the way of goods here in America anymore.  Political negligence – and traitorous energy policies – have inescapable consequences.  Such as:

“The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $66.6 billion, or 29.6 percent, to $291.4 billion in the first quarter of 2022, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revised fourth-quarter deficit was $224.8 billion. The first-quarter deficit was 4.8 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter..”

Against this (grim) backdrop, the market futures were still up over a hundred by the Dow and 20 by the S&P.  Amazing.  OK, delusional, then.

Jobs?

Essentially no change.  We’ll get a better handle when June jobs data comes out next month.

Placing Inflation Bets

As long as America is “living on borrowed money” it should be clear to anyone with a nickel’s worth of brains that as rent on the money (interest) accumulates, the value (in absolute purchasing power on a units – not dollarized – basis) will decline.

Consider your home:  If inflation is ripping along at 10-15 percent it seems like you’re making money. But from a more (Austrian) monetary view, the Utility Value of the house hasn’t changed.  Only the (fiat) money chasing it.

One other point about inflation is it can go the other way as well.  And therein lies another kind of risk – systemic deceleration. 

When prices are set to go up, you might as well buy goods for future needs right now because if you wait, things will cost more.  That’s what inflation does.

The silver lining to inflation is that the manufacturing demand doesn’t collapse.  People are still buying.

But consider the dangerous period the Fed just navigated:  Where deflation was a real possibility.  In  the deflation case, people have no incentive to spend now because thinking goes to the “Well, it’ll be cheaper if I wait, anyway” way of looking at things.

See the asymmetry problem?  During inflations, good production (hence) employment theoretically doesn’t decline much – it at all.

In a deflation, though, the risk of collapse is much greater because consumption takes a header.  Unemployment rises, while at the same time the (few remaining — not exported by money-grubbing f*ck) “free-traders”) factories will be closing down for a lack of sales.

Over time, a new equilibrium will assert when people decide to get off sitting on their wallets long enough to buy something.  Then all at once, an equilibrium is re-established and a rally begins such as it was lighting up in 1935-1936.

Of course the optimism is quickly overdone (Good Times are here again) and you get what’s called a secondary Depression.

A Well-Planned Crisis?

Conspiracy thinking time, though based on facts.  (But good conspiracy theories usually turn all too real in time.)

A most interesting quandary appears for we – the simple tax chattel in all this – who end up getting stuck with the check for everything.

When we realize that the Federal Reserve was facing the “effective lower bound” of interest rates – where America could have spiraled into a deflationary collapse (and attendant hard to fix structural unemployment going viral), the sudden reappearance of seriously rising prices without sufficient change in monetary policy becomes suspect, at a minimum.

Let’s take the supply chain as an example.  Being well-played by government officialdom, including and especially in California Ports.   While we would like to imagine that the Supply Chain disaster, and the coming Food Shortages are all purely coincidental, the data suggests this is NOT the case.

When a central government has run to its effective limits of borrowing (the Fed has purchased how much in Assets?), what are the remaining tools to make prices go higher – lighting off spending – while at the same time hiding its effective bankruptcy.  That is, based on honest accounting which says if you owe more than you have, you’re upside-down.  That’s where America is.

With a good supply chain attack (or direct manipulation) all those cars and trucks may still be coming off the assembly lines.  But many go to large fields where they are parked bumper to bumper awaiting a critical electronic subsystem.  This was gingerly “talked-around” in the Jay Powell who stays in his lane Senate hearings Wednesday.

Hold cars off the showrooms and the price of used cars with some good life in them skyrockets.   The Fed can sell back some of its troubled assets they’ve purchased.  And the stock market (while declining) will have absolute fitful rallies.  All without legislating or printing so much as an additional buck.

If we are at times incredibly skeptical of the “supply chain crisis” – we also see the prosecution of the Ukraine War as another inflation-creating policy.  This policy has enabled the Biden administration to royally screw people at the pumps.

And then – look surprised – along will come a “gas tax rebate” which will take a while to pass – will (bet me?) big a huge democrat pander-point just ahead of elections.  The plan has been, since the Harder proposal in February, to have a gas tax break last through the end of the year.  Just far enough past elections so as to provide plausible deniability.  “Will of the people being done!” and other such pap.

“We’ll fix food prices, too!” will be another rallying cry.  It’s safe to predict that they will ignore their specific creation of this voter red herring.  In fact, by election day, I expect the Bidenistas will blame Vlad Putin for every ill on Earth.

The supply chain is a dodge, as we see it.  Not that the vulnerabilities are less real: The Blind Spot That Makes Supply Chain Attacks Inevitable | SupplyChainBrain.  But we’re also aware that messing with the supply chain is just another chess move.  Takes time.  Aqua Security and CIS release first formal guidelines for software supply chain security | VentureBeat.  These changes all come slowly.

Even the (rare) rational democrat will accidently let slip on such things.  Take the comments as Senator Joe  Manchin slams ‘stupid’ EV push, cites Chinese supply chain – E&E News (eenews.net)

I could write an ongoing book about the absurdity involved.  Maybe I should. Perhaps as Directorate 153 – our hypothetical dirty tricks branch of government – can be seen reviewing weather manipulation via atmospheric heaters (yeah, they never go away), the attacks on supply chains to drive up OTR trucking and keep auto layoffs from happening, on to the attacks on energy to cut off food and give government “emergency martial law” powers if too many people vote “Bullshit on this!”

Here we go again – more conspiracy grist:  Idiots still rule California: Los Angeles may ban new gas stations to help combat climate emergency.  Which will create gas lines.  WTF are these people out west?

So we won’t.  Presented only as fiction of course.  See the Comments section for lists of suspicious fires in food handling and processing facilities around the country.  BIG numbers – several dozen last time I read – so yeah, makes you wonder.  Has statistical analysis stopped working or is there a huge F.U. Public underway by the elites?

Short Stakes

Circumscribing our obvious paranoia are stories like these:

Need a Bigger Reason to spin up Ukraine into “starter war” with Russia?  Try European Union leaders set to grant Ukraine candidate status.  Which will be topped with the traditional “an attack on one is an attack on all” hyperbole.  Looks to us like we’re in the Long Wave Economic Depression but for now the audience thinks that hyperinflation is the answer, until the Big Ugly War to blow up all our excess savings and production is loosed on us.

Biden’s Second Front has been opened in the War with Russia.  I mean shit, people are dying, so let’s adjust right now that it’s the West’s war on Russia.

The Biden neocon implants (like ast. Sec of War Creation Nuland) opened the first front by tweaking Russian water supplies in eastern Ukraine for 7-years.  The Second front was outlined (though not called that) in a pretty good CNBC “explainer” Russia and NATO member Lithuania are clashing over Kaliningrad (cnbc.com).

Since all wars are economic at some level, pay attention to the Monetization headline du jour: Lithuania President Eyes Hike in Defence Spending to Host More NATO Troops.  We’re still trying to figure out a “happy ending” to this fairytale.

The Western Biowar II is also ramping up:  Monkeypox Vaccine Orders Skyrocket, U.S. Getting 500,000 Doses.  Regrettably, this begins to look very muck like a planned jump – from gay sex to airborne hetero – may have been planned for release.  Especially when taken with WHO considers declaring monkeypox a global health emergency.  This is tantamount to planning options for a potential second lockdown.  N95 masks are still cheap – and are gloves.

Bitcoin and the rest of the digital tulips continue to wilt.  BTC an hour to the open was still holding over $20,700, but have you read ‘Epic Failure’—Ethereum Founder Issued A Serious Bitcoin Price Prediction Warning Amid BNB, XRP, Solana, Cardano And Dogecoin Price Crash (forbes.com)?

And yet, Digi Hype continues:  Bitcoin and Ether Rise. Crypto Traders Find Optimism in Powell’s Testimony.

We didn’t see much corresponding news coverage of the hard questions senator Kennedy of Louisiana was asking.  Unless you go looking for stories like Sen. John Kennedy Says ‘We Got A Hell Of A Mess Here’ Tearing Into Fed Chair Over Economy (tampafp.com) and Jerome Powell Admits Federal Reserve ‘Not Getting Our Own Job Done’ (newsweek.com). Think?

ATR: Ho-Hum

On that note, I’ve pretty-well disgusted myself for the morning.  No point playing this market until we move up over the top trend line, or we slide under the mid-channel (dashed) line in our view of things.

Time to recycle contents of our water barrels – into the garden after storage.  May be putting an aerator in the rain water barrels, too.

Anxious to see how the new corn does inside.  Looking at treating some seeds with magnetic south magnetism.  And if you thought I was kidding around the airstone and air pump?  No, absolutely NOT:  Understanding Dissolved Oxygen (growertalks.com).

Maybe a trip to the gas station in the works before the heat comes on again.  Because with T-storms due here next Monday, a mid-summer lawn mowing may be ahead.  Are we the only ones who look at the 10-day forecast as really the most useful news item of the day?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

57 thoughts on “Market Dart Toss – Trouble by Fall”

  1. Time 4 FRN grabbelors to Unite – before the rest of sheeples wake up to the fact their precious resources have been taken – leaving them with..welll cotton infused paper,ink and small interest OWED on each and every one.

    Russia just facialized the scheisse out Ure beloved debt based monetary system.

    Bitcoin/PM’s/Commodities based Money = outside money/outsiders

    Debt/credit based Notes = inside money/insiders

    1)WHICH one of the above MONEY Systems is built on a solid foundation?
    2) Which one is backed solely by lgbtq “fighters” and seriously suspect dumb ass leaders/ leadership?
    3)Which one of the above money systems requires Trust..hahaahahaha
    4) Which of the above systemsbased on and requires multi Verifications ?
    4) Think ole Pooters is gonna take Ure call – after the lights go out and the A/C stops running in EU? How about when USA runs out of refined product (s) later this summer ?

    One moar sign that TEOTWAWKI is hear ? The 7/11 prophecy was Fulfilled yesterday 6/22/2022 – thats right picture was captured and tweeted of 7/11 Gas station sign/board displaying $7.11 Gas = they spell that word with a capital T at the end.

    its a big WAR (above&below)- thank GOODNESS!

    let er rip og G – https://youtu.be/vbCH5lnZ6sA

    do not forget – thru it all – NO Bitcoin 4 G..cue the lennster
    “ya gold shortin nazi bastard crankee yankee schmuru guru farkin frn-luvr” ; )

    Reply
    • So, going into war you load up onoutlaw money? Money banned or restricted severaly in – among otheres –
      ?Qatar. From Jan 2020. …
      ?China. China’s central bank said in Sep 2021 that crypto-currency transactions are illegal and banned. …
      ?Turkey. …
      ?Russia. …
      ?North Macedonia. …
      ?Bangladesh. …
      ?Egypt. …
      ?Morocco.

      Embraced by Zimbabwe and VenezuaCortez and Bernie? That’s laughable shit, right there, buddy

      Reply
  2. Took a trip up to town for shopping and to see the wife’s Dad yesterday. With Diesel getting close to $6 these one off shopping trips are getting pricey. Along the road to his home, there is a greenway with a paved walking/bike path that follows a small stream. Being the attentive driver I am I noticed a very attractive young lady out for a jog on the trail. Excellent timing, just as I got busted by the wife a fellow rounded a curve on a recumbent bike providing me with the perfect, “Hey look at that.” opportunity. I said I have been thinking about those ebikes lately and bet you could get one of those as an ebike. Sure dear, I just bet that was what you were thinking.
    Can you imagine doing grocery or any other kind of shopping on a bicycle? Sure we can do a lot of things if we have to. I have been reading The Wright Brothers by David McCullough. Talk about a couple of Makers! While Wilbur was in France testing and showing the Flyer III the French would come to watch and one was described as a 70 year old man who rode a bicycle from his home 30 miles away to Le Mans to watch every day and then return home.
    Let’s see the grocery store is 26 miles from the ranch……. Nope, not happening.

    Stay safe. 73

    Reply
    • On getting groceries with the bike: if you have the right setup it really isn’t bad.

      Some rigs have a nice cargo area on the front. Its like a small pickup truck. No insurance or registration fee and an EPA rated 10 miles per poptart make operating costs pretty small.

      Steep hills can be a problem, but an electronic assist can help with that.

      Reply
      • LOL! I did that as a teenager and ended up with quadraceps muscles so big I couldn’t find pants to fit with a waist size anywhere near my own!

        Today, the idea of making a 100 mile plus run to a grocery store on a pedal powered bike is not appealing at all – especially with hills and towing a trailer to carry the stuff. I’d rather build an electric motorcycle, though that would require registration and insurance.

    • The collapse of the suburbs.

      People stacked, walking close-by their city coops is the solution for the future.

      In the past I posted the link to the Michigan Isabella County Sheriff’s Department saying they ran out of fuel budget. What do you? Force the COP to buy his own gas like a pizza delivery rep.

      Back in Tammany Hall days American citizens would call the fire department and the fire department would demand payment upon arrival. No pay and the building burned.

      Reply
      • The modern standard of living is based on relatively cheap and plentiful energy. Subtract energy, and population levels are unsubstainable, with brutal living conditions for the survivors. We are just getting a taste of green living.

      • LOOB, they are nice if all passengers can pedal. I rented a six seater model (4 adults, 2 kids) once down in Galveston. By the end of the day, two of our party were too drunk to handle the simple task of moving their feet up and down. Pedalling that 400+ pounds of dead weight was rough. Another 50 pounds if you add the two little ones sitting up front, but I didn’t put them in the dead weight category. Thankfully the Seawall is level.

      • $2500 + options!!?

        A school in Ohio sold four of ’em last year for ~$100 each. I thought about it, but passed…

      • “they are nice if all passengers can pedal.”

        That’s why you get the electric motor assist @James in Palestine lol lol
        Around here they have a mobile bar twenty people to peddle it..I haven’t been on it but would love to see it.. I joke to the wife we need to get a goat cart lol.. if gas keeps going up that may not be a bad idea lol.. years ago I worked at a grocery store..a disabled woman would drive up in a golf cart that looked like a car that her kids bought her.. she would pull up to the door and wait for us to come out.. then give us her list we would go do her shopping and bring her the tab..she would pay us and the I’d jump in and ride with her to put her groceries away lol lol then walk back to the store.. ( we had blind people come have us do that to) the thing was awesome..they had a car show here two years ago and in it was a small golf cart car just like it..

  3. I’m finding it interesting that so many people are catching up with the “Conspiracy Theory” Theory. (Was this shit planned?)

    Told ya last week about the vaccinated folks who were once very healthy, who aren’t feeling so well these days. Claiming the government/media made them get the jab. Yes Sir, hindsight and regret … suck.

    Nurses have been having second thoughts about the covid protocol they had to adhere to, since finding out some side effects of the drugs they were required to administer … and the ones they were told not to. Some nurses did research and walked away, while others just followed the yellow brick road. Sadly, critical thinking isn’t so much required in nursing school these days, with the nursing shortage an’all.

    And some nurses are just recently finding out about the $9,000. death benefit for a covid cause of death. To quote several nurses, “Are you fucking kidding me !!” That was the nice quote. Others were more colorful.

    Actually met up with a former nurse recently. Use to work with her, now she’s working for a Tree Service. Office job? Nope! She was running the chipper with the crew who removed a fallen tree from my neighbors yard. We had a nice talk on her break. She’s done with health care. (Obviously)

    Seems conspiracy (theories) abound. If people knew how many folks actually have Nursing Licenses, they’d wonder why there’s a nursing shortage. Same with folks with a DCL License … so why is there a trucker shortage? There’s a many, many folks who can do various jobs but won’t … and it’s not free money causing it. (Not all of it) it’s more about how things are run these days.

    Food shortage? Here’s what some folks are thinking …

    https://youtube.com/shorts/TZtcs6ZomR4?feature=share

    If it’s true that everything is a vibrational frequency, things are shaking like sand on a metal plate and, realization of the design is becoming apparent.

    Peace

    Reply
    • “There’s a many, many folks who can do various jobs but won’t ”

      I don’t think it is because they won’t.. CDL.. with all the riders.. but the companies expect more work less .. the same with nursing.. the job of infinite short shifts.. its the only way they can juggle the budget..My wife and all the other hourly shifts were shortened.. instead the company is working the salaried employees longer.. more hours without any more compensation..
      My sibling told me a week ago that his fuel costs increased five hundred dollars a day.. and that the company is asking him to drive further and longer.. instead they cut back drivers..

      Reply
    • Someone long ago wrote “The history of mankind is the history of secret societies”, or some such. Between warlords, priests, bureaucrats, guilds, unions, civic clubs, etc., insider groups can talk, plot, and work toward their collective goals, regardless of the normal folks who generally don’t coordinate tightly. This is legitimately called a conspiracy, but the CIA renamed comspiracies to “conspiracy theories”. Very clever.

      Reply
  4. Could it be those ships are not unloading because they are waiting for payment in something other than US Treasury Bills or Notes?

    Reply
  5. George
    I know you are from Texas, where it is a mortal sin to suggest criminality on the part of the oil industry. But, it does seem that the oil industry is very happy with the blame you throw at Biden and the Dems for the gas price rise. The probable answer is that the robber barons at the top of the oil rigs are gaming the system for immense profits, while folk like you use the public’s less that optimal intelligence to create political blame where is doesn’t belong. Check this piece out
    https://medium.egbertowillies.com/theres-an-oil-glut-not-a-shortage-high-prices-are-a-worldwide-fraud-by-corporations-here-s-why-27ddc6eea4d6

    Reply
    • Dan:

      Please tell your handlers that they are not getting their money’s worth!

      You link to a blog, where a self-proclaimed “political activist, author, political blogger, radio show host, business owner, software developer, web designer, and mechanical engineer” blogs about how he FEELS there is an oil glut. This right here shows they are a leftist. It literally screams out.

      Let us note that NOTHING in this leftist’s self-aggrandizing bullshittery points to any facts at all, nor do they provide any evidence to bolster their claims. They just FEEL that there is an oil glut.

      No Dan, there isn’t. Silly things like facts and reality say as much. And, as much as you, and the a-holes who pay you to come shit up a place like this, would like it to be otherwise, this is INDEED the fault of Potato Head Joe and his democratic cronies.

      Dan, it is Pride Month. Don’t you have a parade to attend?

      Joe

      Reply
      • good point Joe – most didnt get the Joke or even realize they are laughing at us about it..

        TPTB/Were mid level mgr – what kind of programing network news/entertainment to further our main goals of degrading the Family the Father, the Man of the House ?
        Deepstate purv – “I know lets schedule- Pride Month for the month belonging to Fathers Day.”
        TPTB/Were mid level mgr – great idea, why dont we further it a bit and designate Fathers Day as juneteenth, so we can really screw with the Caucasian males some more.

      • Like I said, any critique of the oil oligarchs is seen as a mortal sin for those whose addiction to the goo is all ecnompasing.
        I am sure you have a Proud Boys convention to attend in the meantime.

    • There is a reason why I said, over 13 months ago, that gasoline would be $7/gal in August (of 2022.)

      That reason has nothing to do with the oil industry. It has everything to do with the fact that the amount of money the U.S. had in circulation in May of last year more than doubled.

      If you seek to find a robber baron, look no further than the people in charge of our government. It is THEY who’ve arranged to take half of everything we make or accrue (over and above what they take in taxes), not an oil company.

      If you seek enlightenment, perhaps invest less time letting neocommunist activists tell you what, and how to think, and more time, researching stuff yourself by locating actual data and information?

      Reply
    • Dan,

      Lets not forget suspension of ANWAR leases, crack down on fracking, and some broken pipelines [Keystone, and Pipeline 5] to go along with Food Processing Plant destruction (Caught fire from Globull Warming)? Whats competing with OPEC Oil to drive the price down ?

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/17/venezuela-oil-sanctions-chevron/

      I guess its better to break your own infrastructure while rebuilding others. Seems perfectly KAzar.. eh em….. Amurikan.

      Reply
    • Excellent post, Dan, nobody wants to look at facts, it’s more convenient to blame the bogeyman Democrats (our Saviour Trump is being nailed by Pontius Pilate aka Jan 6 Committee for ‘trumped up’ charges, Trump could never resort to bribery, violence, fraud etc, LOL!):

      chart on oil proftis:
      https://www.businessinsider.com/gas-prices-oil-company-profits-skyrocketing-energy-sector-earnings-charts-2022-5

      The evil Democrats are at it again, trying to put a tax on the Oil Companies’ excessive profits:
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/biden-ally-floats-21-surtax-on-oil-profits-to-blunt-inflation

      The oil companies snagging big profits, Biden can’t be blamed:
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/04/24/if-oil-companies-control-prices-why-do-they-ever-lose-money/?sh=115eb6f0cf9d

      Reply
  6. The Smith Mundt modernization act of 2012 was signed by President Obama with little notice to the public. It gives the United States government full legal power to propagandize its own citizens. This explains all the lies that have followed since. The lies about Syria, Ukraine, all aspects of Covid including the injections. How can you trust any information coming from the US gov?
    How can we possibly accept this!
    As Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote “We know they are lying. They know they are lying. They know that we know they are lying. We know that they know that we know they are lying. And still they continue to lie.”

    Reply
  7. Following yesterday’s White House presser on the “Putin Price Hike”, today Mr. Putin mailed in a video address to the 5 emerging economy nations attending the 14th BRIC Summit currently underway virtually in Beijing. I daresay they could build another great wall of China with the wall to wall Chinese media coverage.

    Let’s hasten over to the studio while a tickled pink DJ Ure fires up the Interstellar Overdrive and sets the stylus compass beyond Astronomy Dominé. Don’t hold down the volume settings as Zeus modulates rock anthem launchings to the accompaniment of “Another Brick in the Wall”.

    Back in the barbed wire no-mans land of DC where season 1 episode 13 of the 1/6 Capitol Hearings continue, climb back on our bicycles for the rollout in two hours of the anticipated update (#76?). The world is moving fastly, folks!

    Reply
    • Wonder what the digital medium of settlement is gonna be? Hmm?
      https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/yuan/

      Watch those bread and circus shows, stay emotional, stay distracted. dont look now. Your bank has taken a holiday.

      Look at all your consumables and maintenance replacement parts. Are they made in China? If the answer is yes , I’d suggest stocking up now.

      Reply
  8. UK tabloids are splashing the digital ink over The Commonwealth confab now underway in the Republic of Rwanda. Dictator and President Kagame of the minority 3% elite ruling clan with ties to the African 17th century nobility is hosting. The Prince of Wales is chair and noted Rwanda’s “appalling” refugee treatment.

    The estimated per capita 2022 GDP in Rwanda is estimated to be US$909. Mrs. Johnson, spouse of the UK PM was pictured upon arrival at Kigali Airport in a striking hot pink suit matched with a leopard skin print red silk blouse (£325). The Canadian PM is also a dignitary in attendance.

    Elsewhere in “The Daily Mail” is lengthy coverage of the world’s richest man, formerly with socialite Amber Heard, and formerly spouse to a flame of Chelsea Manning. Now a twin offspring son has apparently elected to go forward as Vivian. Without further adieu, over to George the Gardener with more tips on successful planting and raising seed from scratch.

    Reply
  9. “When prices are set to go up, you might as well buy goods for future needs right now because if you wait, things will cost more.  That’s what inflation does.”

    Lol lol lol .. that’s my internal debate..

    I keep debating my delicate situation..
    The tes no how to justify it lol
    https://www.amazon.com/Champion-Generator-Outdoor-Rated-Automatic-Transfer/dp/B01A0TL9NC/ref=mp_s_a_1_3?crid=DUGO1Q2FAYYG&keywords=champion+backup+generator+for+home&qid=1655994386&sprefix=vhampion+backup+generator+for+home%2Caps%2C453&sr=8-3&ufe=app_do%3Aamzn1.fos.4dd97f68-284f-40f5-a6f1-1e5b3de13370
    Buy it now have it delivered so when the electrician comes by .. or wait and hopefully the price doesn’t skyrocket..
    The boss says absolutely no.. but with what I see coming and having 4 outages in one month.. it could be imperative that I get froggy without the bosses permission and jump and hope it works out in the future lol..
    We have a smaller unit but it’s pulling just above the maximum capacity.. I know with what I see going on with the economy if not destroyed by a war is going to shoot prices through the roof..
    Decisions Decisions..I will have to make it though by July 11 lol lol

    Reply
    • And don’t forget you’ll need fuel to run it, too! Don’t know if you already have natural gas or propane, but either way it ain’t going to be cheap. I haven’t bought one of those because the cost of feeding it propane is going to be steep and repetitive.

      I settled on a lower output diesel portable that can run everything but the air conditioner. Also bought an old 150 gallon propane tank and filled it with diesel, so we’ll have a few months’ worth of intermittent use (once or twice a week to run the well pump and washing machine/dryer). I built a 500 gallon water tower more than 20 years ago, and we can run most of a week on 500 gallons.

      Reply
      • “And don’t forget you’ll need fuel to run it, too! Don’t know if you already have natural gas or propane,”

        Boy do I hear you on that one.. debating the what to do.. on a steady run the unit i have will run all the essentials.. but the electrician made note that I am just above maximum output.. if all the essentials fired up at one time it would put the unit in jeopardy of over stressing the system and burn the gen out..
        I DO have solar and I do have natural gas hookup.. and a way to tap into a bio gas generator to fire the system up …. and enough solar that on a regular day I produce 32-37 KW of solar..more than what I use on a daily average.. the problem I didn’t contemplate storage adequately.. is it is all set up on grid tie.. I do have one inverter that is set up as a backup but no battery system .. the batteries I did have are all down to replace the battery backup would run around seven grand….
        I played around with the hook another inverter in series with a shut off switch to flip it over to an off grid system.. there again.. the price would almost be that of a generator…. and having a small two kw inverter backup to put juice into the line to trick the inverters into turing on… which would work..
        Gas.. the unit I have now is hooked up to natural gas.. but can use just about anything.. One project was building a biogas generator..
        https://youtu.be/NnvwNN7DmHg
        the one in that video wouldn’t even produce enough gas to cook on..
        https://youtu.be/8uzmwyUADZs
        https://youtu.be/FVMADEwID4o
        years and years ago I knew a chicken farmer.. that produced enough gas from his chickens to run his whole operation even compressed it to run his equipment.. I suggested that to a cattle dairy farmer.. that he should set up a system like that.. I didn’t know he took my advice till a couple of months ago.. ran out and took a look.. he is sending the gas back through to the company and selling it.. and actually makes more on his gas production than he does on his milk and cheese industry.. over two billion square feet of bio gas.. amazing powers his whole operation and still enough to send back to the gas lines to make money on it…. the storage bags he has is larger than a couple of houses I thought it was his silage covers LOL. LOL..
        so I got some totes to make the systems.. and the access to the slurry mix.. for gas.. then an lpg gas production unit.. making gas is easy but yet not easy.. https://youtu.be/kb-2LxYxUp0
        here is a simple crazy old man project.. simple yet works and you can use alcohol as the fuel on the fuel side.. instead of carbon.. https://youtu.be/yutB_avXJ90
        anyway.. I have a lot of stuff running around trying to make a decision.. trying to decide what to do is an continual internal debate.. depending on what I see in the news in the next week will determine what I will do or what decision I will make…. that way the system up would run the home for the day with what I produce with solar.. with way more than I use.. the price to put up a battery backup system is just over seven grand.. a larger generator is less expensive.
        then there is plastic.. at the landfill the average person tosses out seven pounds of trash per day two thirds of that is paper and plastic.. a mountain of plastic.. and plastics are nothing more than stabilized oil.. which is why they tell you not to use plastic in the microwave the chemicals leach out into your food.. ..
        https://youtu.be/njIYHtFmcSs
        at the university of Washington state they have the only small system that was allowed to be sold within the borders of the USA.. but the theory is easy enough and anyone can make one.. I actually had made a small system to show the kids how it is done.. we were going to reconvert the bosses slow cooker and her old pressure cooker.. but got a don’t touch my cookers.. lecture.. LOL..

        that is where the big inner turmoil and debate is.. One we don’t know if things will deteriorate.. what I have is almost adequate for a short period of time but stressed and will burn out if put through an extensive test or forced to depend on it for all my energy needs…..one option is I already have enough solar but have to figure out how to turn it on if grid is down.. or add a battery system to the system already in place.. I have five freezers and cannot let any of them go bad as far as lights and cooking.. not an issue.. the USA has the same plan in place if the SHTF scenario.. if the gas line is not damaged the spigots are opened the same as the UK.. I can produce alcohol for fuel.. or bio gas for fuel.. or convert plastics back to fuel.. in the dirtyy thirties.. that is exactly what they did so farmers could plant their crops.. .. as for a biogas generator.. there just wouldn’t be enough time or energy to process the food in them on a short term emergency situation and all of that is affected by temperature…. and then there is the thought would what beavis and the buttheads are doing internationally affect us here.. I fear yes because you just can’t harbor and transport millions of illegals from countries that swore vengeance against us posing as refugees..without there being a percentage of them that are just what they said they would to.. and that warriors are sent to perform a caliphate and jihad against the great satan posing as illegal refugees….. https://youtu.be/98RjBxr982Y… sure Beavis and the buttheads assume that they were just joking and sure they wouldn’t do that to someone as nice as beavis…. but they don’t realize that they live the old testament word by word and everyone assumes that beavis and family are just working for their own best interests ..
        Its one of those Yes go ahead and do it.. No what you have will work for short term down time.. Yes hard grid down could become a reality.. No beavis and the buttheads do have our backs and will do the right thing..
        NOW.. If the company hadn’t gone and cut hours for hourly wage earners.. I would have it coming.. but they did and extended the hours worked for salaried.. then it would be here already.. no issues.. but a lot had to be taken off the budget and some pretty huge budget changes had to be made.. cell phone goes off tomorrow.. just enough in the bank to pay the insurances that come out on tuesday.. even trips in the car.. are no longer going to happen.. until payday.. in a little over a week away..
        then would the boss throw a fit.. ( YES SHE WOULD I know this girl and she would let me know that I am the one that should be called beavis..) if I did it without her blessing.. it is one thing to sneak something in and juggle to make it work.. until it grows dust.. then you can say.. dam that old thing.. its been here a long time.. like a lot of govt.. stuff.. hide it in plain sight.. the nothing is a secret idea.. let everyone know then discount its validity.. I will him and haw back and forth on it.. if I get enough people to say yes do it.. then I would probably just do it and then argue back to the boss.. everyone thinks it is a great idea.. LOL LOL if not then I will use what is and get the three circuits hooked up correctly and then if there is a hard grid down scenario.. work around the usage to keep the system running..

    • You DO understand the natural gas delivery system is 100% grid-dependent, right? If the grid goes, so does NG delivery.

      Reply
      • Lol unfortunately I do @Ray. That is also part of my internal debates..
        Years ago I was in a conversation with some friends at a restaurant and I was thing them what I seen coming.. after we were done and leaving a gentleman stopped me and apologized for listening in..
        Then we went back and visited for a couple hours. He was with a group that deals with catastrophe planning.. and basically said they anticipate exactly what I was..the have a list of all the fuel people purchase and where it’s stored to have access to it in a catastrophic event..
        Making lp gas is also dependent on the grid.. a few years ago I had made a wood gasifier to show the kids how it works.

        https://www.build-a-gasifier.com/gasifier-kits/

        But I didn’t keep it..I gave it to a friend to play with.. I have thought about building another.. even there some grid power is needed..

  10. And the chess pieces continue to move …

    Ukraine becomes EU membership candidate as battle in east enters ‘fearsome climax’

    EU Granting Candidate Status. – if the whole process comes to completion, I wonder what will happen in those (early) breakaway areas and all that is under Russian occupation/control ? Bigger battle there or everywhere? Hmmm

    Reply
  11. “Are we the only ones who look at the 10-day forecast as really the most useful news item of the day?”

    At least you get multi-day plan-ahead time. Around here, outdoor work is only planned after looking at today’s weather and seeing how much moisture will be incoming. If today will be sunny… outdoor work of mowing and hacking. If it will be substantially wet, then indoor activities are planned. Gotta roll with the rain punches here when we get 130 inches annually.

    Reply
    • Similar here, even if 13 inches/year is more like it. The mud doesn’t want to give up moisture once it hits. The first page view is hourly weather and the second one is the 10 day forecast. These things are often fiction and change overnight, but tend to be more accurate close in. Working outside on dry ground is delightful, and can otherwise be a chore. Working in the rain or other precip is a non-starter.

      Reply
  12. Could not give a rats ass on the 73 rambles . The great gold bull , me, is in love again with her . 4 down creeps ? We can smoke out and starve you gold shorting Yankees any day . Come on go again and talk rubbish . You have never seen a bull like a gold bull . Richard Russell used to tell me how it was late 70s early 80s . And moriarty king salesman says he loved Richard . Moriarty is a salesman good mates with Bobby pretzel

    Reply
  13. And free Assange. Our country is even more sexed . He is Australian bring him home our dope prime minister. Brings Tamil Tigers back . Even Mexico has offered asylum . What’s his crime ? Yeah ? Telling the truth about American lies

    Reply
  14. This question is for George and you generator knowledgeable folks. I have nat gas and could maybe spring for a Generac whole house generator. My question is, how survivable is one of those as the over all system starts to fail, excluding an EMP event? Gray Fox

    Reply
    • Longish answer:
      PROVIDED THAT:
      – the Genset is not connected to mains power – which would call the transfer switch into question./
      – the generator is mechanically regulated, e.g. no computer-based engine management system
      – provided the fuel source doesn’t have a computer in the line (computer based fguel pressurde, etc)
      – And provided your DC primary wiring was protected with a very modest transient voltage protection system…

      THEN
      It should be pretty good.

      However, once the EMP starts going, a good Siemens whole house surge protector would be useful if you are power the house and additional EMPs come along.

      Reply
    • No grid = no natural gas. A home genset would probably be fine, since the grounding required to make sure it didn’t become a bomb if the house were hit by lightning is probably sufficient to enable it to survive the EMP. However, the pipe would cease delivery, permanently, upon flash or flare.

      Reply
      • That isn’t a very bright view @Ray… I’d be SOL and handing out food so it didn’t rot lol..
        That’s probably why all the studies that have been done give an estimated 98 percent of the population will perish..

  15. “the Bidenistas will blame Vlad Putin for every ill on Earth.”

    NAWW.. that will not happen if they can’t weave Donald Trump to blame in there somewhere.

    Reply
  16. Perhaps things aren’t so rosy on the EU oil front after all? The BBC is reporting that Nordstream1, 50.002% owned by the Russian state, is only flowing at 40% capacity due to technical issues and will be on shutdown from July 11-21 for repairs. The BBC goes on further to say that Germany is at stage 2 (burning through a €15 billion retail gas subsidy) of emergency measures before initiating stage 3 (gas rationing?).

    Re: “Maybe a trip to the gas station is in order…”.

    Tanker up!?

    Reply
    • Many otherwise law abiding New Yorkers simply ignored this law and carried concealable pistols acquired on the darker markets. It beats dying in a dark alley when accosted by thugs. Some idiots, like Schumer who’s campaigning for tighter gun restrictions, have an all-carry NYC permit which is nearly impossible for normal folks to acquire. I understand why he does, but if he can do it, any law abiding resident has the same right. I despise those who flaunt their political privilege.

      Reply

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