Here comes a bunch of news: We have some hot jobs data out which we will get to in a second. But the main feature of today is some penciling of data that offers hope of a minor week-ending rally before (perhaps) finding a tradable low next week. The “double bottom” I talked with Peoplenomics readers about looks to be just about here. But we shall see.
Until the S&P is above 2119 or below 2000, cash has a certain comfort a a certain…je ne sais quoi to it.
Tomorrow is Job Number Roulette Day and this morning we have the usual data for hedging.
The Challenger Job Cuts report first:
“Employers announced plans to cut payrolls by 38,536 jobs in June, an increase from May, but still well below the 12-month average and indicative of a positive employment environment, according to the report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
The June job-cut total is 28 percent higher than May, when planned layoffs fell to a five-month low of 30,157.
“Job cut announcements were up last month, but they increased from the lowest total of the year to the second lowest of the year. The June total is 26 percent lower than the 53,049 monthly job cuts averaged over the past year,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
June job cuts were down 14 percent from the 44,842 planned job cuts reported by employers in June 2015.
Through the first half of the year, employers announced 313,754 planned job cuts, which is up 9 percent from the 287,672 job cuts announced in the first six months of 2015.
However, pace of job cutting has slowed significantly since the beginning of the year. Job cuts in the second quarter totaled 132,834, down 27 percent from the 180,920 first-quarter cuts and 10 percent lower than the 147,458 job cuts announced in the second quarter of 2015.”
Now before we get to the ADP Job Creation report, a word about last month’s data:
In the May data (reported June 2) Large Business created only 34,000 of the purported new jobs while small business (76,000) and medium business (63,000) created the overwhelming majority.
Don’t look now, but is grass-roots capitalism at work?
That’s the set-up, so here’s this morning’s ADP scoop:
“ROSELAND, N.J. – July 7, 2016 – Private sector employment increased by 172,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “
About here (if you still have a pulse and enough bean on to fire neurons) you should be asking “So what was the big biz corporate contribution this month, Ure?”
No, this doesn’t mean that big biz is imploding. It just means 95,000 jobs were small companies and start-ups. And 52,000 were mid-sized.
It’s the flavor here that is the take-away. Small and mid-sized companies don’t have the big bennies (got an LTD plan?), work hours tend to be longer (like 50-70 for a salaried gig) and the time off…what’s that?
Was Rand Paul Right?
Now that the Lynch mob has officially said the presumptive democratic high-bidder will not face charges. Gee, that was quick: look surprised. Think professional prosecutors can look at a case this complicated in mere hours?
Hallelujah. The US Dept of Just-Us has pioneered high-speed legal review!
Still, some folks remember Rand Paul was the only senator who voted against the James Comey nomination.
Donald Trump is testing to see how well Newt Gingrich does out on the campaign trail.
Obama as a Muslim
Going totally viral is the Bill O’Reilly (guestus interuptus) pictures of Barrack Obama in Muslim wedding garb for his half-brother.
In fairness, years ago I attended a Jewish event and wore a yam mica (beanie). It didn’t mean I had converted; more a show of respect. So I can cut Obama some slack on this one.
(Obama is still a lame-duck and wrong-headed supporting invasion-style immigration, and even worse is he’s shopping the Supreme Court decision with the Lynch mob and all the rest…but fair’s fair.
As the HR Department would advise: Correct on the ACTIONS not the PERSONAL traits. (Can’t say if O’Reilly knows HR basics. Look up ad homnem. You don’t fire people for beliefs or opinions, you fire them for failing to perform required job functions.)
Fed and BREXIT
Two items today: CNBC’s take on the Fed Minutes out yesterday is more readable than the minutes themselves.
But to us, the REAL news will be whether in today (or next week’s) H.6 Money Stocks report, we will see how much pouring of cash the Fed engaged in to staunch the bleeding that might have been much worse.
Liquidity as QuikClot. How about that?
And so, as the sun rises over the Outback compound, Ures Truly goeth forth to watch the market back and fill, unsure of what to make of the news flow. Perhaps a hot pan of homemade corned beef hash with a couple of eggs (no toast, thanks) and more blood pressure elevator will put thing into right perspective…
But the world is at least as crazy as Wednesday and that’s going a fair piece.