Let’s do the CPI report first – everyone is interested in that:
“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy
component indexes were mixed.
Here’s some of the specific drilldown: Remember as you read this, the All Items less Food and Energy was up 4.8 percent annualized in the June report!
Key is the 4.7 percent, so virtually no change after another rate hike. Market should panic, but after the number was up almost 200 on Hopium.
Recall the 1929-era Fed was caught in a similar “need to raise rates” vise, too. So, the “fit” will be worth discussing on the Peoplenomics side this weekend.
With inflation reported for the month, we have options expiring a week from tomorrow. Then, week following, there’s often a pause in the craziness the week after expiration. Not investment advice; just something there in late summer data over time.
Not much changed, but here’s what last week “felt like” around the Nation:
We have PPI coming tomorrow and still more hot weather.
Our hearts and prayers to the good people on Maui who are going through a terrible disaster. The Lahaina district has burned down. Even now, upslope winds on Maui are fanning brush fires.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see the death toll top 50 since already At least 36 dead in wildfire in historic Lahaina, Hawaii, officials say – CBS News. Equally grim Lahaina resident describes Maui wildfire aftermath as apocalyptic (nbcnews.com).
There’s a sense of horror but nothing to do on surrounding islands. One source explaining the weather picture from their location on Oahu:
“We get swirls, of course, but the full force of the NE trades (and in this case, the funnelled high pressure to hurricane normalizing winds, which are basically coming from the same direction as the trades usually do) pops up over the top of us. It’s been dry, of course, as it generally is here in the islands late summer, but the windward side gets whatever showers come our way, so soil moisture is a bit higher than the leeward or Kona sides. Lahaina was full Kona side for Maui, so super dry, for example.”
Similarly, ham radio pal on the Big Island was in the clear.
With first responders still whacking hot spots, scattered showers being reported from a weather node 2 Miles NW Waikapu HI. The Weather Service has extended the red flag warning and heavier rains are likely about Sunday in the long-range view.
It will be huge. Maui – long a fall-through-spring getaway for the West Coast – stands to be a tourism disaster for a couple of years.
As Hawaii travel plans: How fires have tourists scrambling | CNN rolled past we were pleased the administration got something right: Biden sends military to help with brutal Hawaii wildfires | Stars and Stripes.
For now. too early for even a guess, so we will pencil $12-$20 billion in as a placeholder. A lot will depend on long-term dilutive effects on tourism revival after, food and beverage, the boat tours and so on.
This may also result in a general lightening of Insurance portfolios as they will have to sell off assets to fund liabilities. The role of re-insurance (risk spreading) will work through the system.
Kaohsiung Next Week?
Winds are persnickety in Asia. When the Kamikaze winds held back the Chinese fleet that attacked Japan in 1274, it was called “Divine.”
Today, fresh from a massive death-dealing typhoon that hit Mainland China 10-days back, China has its eyes fixed on reunification. The fall Party Congress is fast approaching.
Having read a lot of strategy and tactics, my consigliere is worried about a “perfect confluence of events” shaping up for next week, or the one after though less likely.
- The major American land east (Hawaii) is in sociopolitical turmoil from the fires.
- The Biden administration has its hands full with Ukraine, Syria, and Niger. How many balls can we juggle?
- We have long-suspected the UKR war is covering up corruption and sure enough: Ukraine Anti-Corruption Drive Faces New Blow as Key Prosecutor Pushed Aside (newsweek.com)
- While awaiting the biblical glassing of Damascus, we see Turkey being the local U.S. proxy operation in Syria. Leading to Assad blames Erdogan for violence in Syria and insists on a pullout of Turkish troops. In response to this, Iran’s getting involved on the sidelines: Senior Iranian lawmaker urges U.S., Türkiye to end “occupation” of Syria.
- And in Niger? Like it or not (the US doesn’t) Niger coup leaders form new government – Mehr News Agency. While the new government hasn’t gone on the war path, some reasonable people are trying to avoid that. Niger coup: Catholic bishops warn against military intervention – Businessday NG. But as we explained previously, the World isn’t going to let 7 percent of the world’s uranium reserves be under local control and sold for market prices. Predicting a Resource War as the outcome of West African leaders aim to agree next steps on defiant Niger junta is as easy as predicting money flows in the District of Corruption here.
- There is a new moon next Wednesday AM – the 16th here, 17th on the far side of the date line – which might give Chinese night fighters a chance to show off their skills.
- Moreover, we note China has been practicing nearly “full-sized” penetration testing this week. China sends ships and fighter jets toward Taiwan in new show of force | AP News.
- Also, China is well-advanced internally shaping the mindset of the Chinese public to be ready for the fight when it comes. China releases TV documentary showcasing military readiness to invade Taiwan. (While we worry about pronouns, for crying out loud!)
- Last, but not least is the long-range weather (see August 17th) shows very light winds and bright sunny weather. Except for the 6-mile visibility due to haze, about perfect weather for air dominance.
All of which has been simmering, but we also have to see something of a big squeeze coming in the insurance industry, mentioned a moment ago: Exclusive: Lloyd’s of London leads insurers tightening Taiwan cover as conflict risks rise | Reuters.
What passes for a president has awakened to notice the horses have left the barn. United States | Joe Biden orders ban on certain US tech investments in China – Telegraph India. See why we refer to him as Slow? You have to be a special brand of crooked or stupid not to have read Red Dragon Rising: Communist China’s Military Threat to America. It has been out since 1999.
The REALITY of Chinese expansionism (as compared to American Corporate) escapes most people. As one source explained to me:
“China is not a real country – it’s a land mass occupied by a fairly homogeneous ethnic population, under the control of the Communist Party of China. The “government” and the “military” are simply the less armed and more armed wings of the CPC. State Owned Enterprises (and there are still a massive number of them, making up the majority of the economy), are also wings of the CPC. The CPC has about 12.25 million armed disciplined personnel under its control. The rest of the population is unarmed, but for knives and handheld laser “pointers”. (At 2-5 watts, not a toy, but can-do real damage.)”
See why high-powered laser engraver technology is appearing? Dual-use, Luke Skywalker.
Pollyana types who forecast the collapse of China via insurrection fail to grasp the realities on the ground, in-country. Including Polly in the Ovoid.
There’s the conspiratorial question lingering today: What caused the Lahaina fire? Long on speculation, officials are so far unsure. In our worst of fears, it may have been deliberate.
Reminds me to be carefully circumspect: Moment Utah man Craig Deleeuw Robertson’s home is surrounded by FBI agents who hurled a smoke bomb before shooting him dead after he posted ‘credible’ Joe Biden death threats. FBI kills 75-year old man.
Open Borders Fan?
Thousands of people a day sneaking into these (once upon a time) United States and it was no big deal in the erudite, war party Northeast. But when those same hapless people come to NYC looking for the American dream? “Hey buddy, not here” from the libs.
Which gets us to eyeing Lady Gaga’s dad rallies NYC neighbors in fight to ‘manage’ unruly migrants at Stratford Arms Hotel. Wasn’t a problem in Texas but now? In the Northeast?
If you can’t see the double standards of lefties, you need an eye doc sitdown.
War? What is It Good for Dept.
The failure of the Ukraine War is not a popular topic in the American corporate press. Which has been burying the Hunter corruption details while selling the war. Got to have something to show for kicking out the previously elected government and shutting down water to Russian speaking lands, right?
Notwithstanding, preps for a missile-laced confrontation between Poland (and NATO) along the Belarus border edges closer as Suwalki Corridor War Zone: Thousands of troops deployed – Russia. simulated ballistic barrage against Poland – Shield in Wagner advance. Not to mention Ukrainians’ Eastern Front collapsed: Kiev evacuates 53 settlements in Kharkiv – Ukrainian General Staff: Russians create a “Shock Fist”.
Even some American media are doing reputable coverage such as Russian Storm-Z Threat Looms Over Recently Liberated Region, Ukraine Admits (newsweek.com).
But what really sickens us is the charade of holding “Peace Talks” without both parties. That’s not “talks” at all. It’s a propaganda festival. Russia Angry at Being Left Out of Peace Talks Where Ukraine Gained Allies (businessinsider.com). Its intent was never to end conflict. It was to goad Russia into first use of WMDs. But we suppose you see that now.
Isn’t anybody what we thought they were? Hiding in plain sight! Gun violence prevention activist accused of orchestrating major guns and drugs ring in New York – just days after praising his own organization for ‘bringing peace to the community’ | Daily Mail Online.
Anti-Corruption isn’t just having a tough go of it in Ukraine. It’s a worldwide issue: Who is Fernando Villavicencio, the anti-corruption candidate shot dead in Ecuador?
Funny Money isn’t exactly money. But it’s not exactly a Security, either: SEC seeks to appeal ruling that Ripple XRP isn’t a security | The Financial Express. This could have lots of tax implications.
Think you’re a Windows jock? Listen up: New System Components settings page found in recent Windows 11 insider build – MSPoweruser
ATR: Woo-Woo Valley of the Future
Doing a lot of lucid dreaming (and having written a book about it) recent study has been on the “remote viewing angles” of lucid dreams.
Last night, for example, there was a serial adventure dream in a San Francisco-like city. Seems the homeless there had sorted themselves out into a gang of many. The sub-unit leaders all met in a second or third floor walk-up bar/clubhouse in a sketchy apartment building. (Bleed-over from the NYC homeless in hotel meme? Hmm…fair amount of dream layering happens in some Realms of sleep.)
Won’t bore you with the details, except to say it seemed there was a homeless gang’s agreement not to shoot at one-another on “Muscone Street.” Which in the dream was not far from the sketchy clubhouse and retailers (all doing very poorly) on the ground floor.
Not worth mentioning about how my “electric getaway car” was a massive failure, either. Or the trench coat detective with white hair who was with a team of undercover LEOs trying to keep the lid on. Red and white Camaro-looking electric, by the way.
Here’s the learning that came through on return from this dandy 2-days of adventure (experienced here in less than 90-minutes of sleep time):
The Future is a Valley
The bring back from today’s dream adventure was a picture diagram of how Future works.
Imagine, if you will a drop of rain falling somewhere over eastern Washington state. No matter where it falls, short of evaporating, it will eventually arrive in the Pacific Ocean.
Falling in one area, it will get there by way of the Columbia River. But, in another, it will come downstream via the Snake River. They join at the dam pool behind McNary dam. “…Burbank, Washington is part of Lake Wallula, the reservoir of McNary Dam.” From there it’s 325 meandering miles to get west of Astoria, Oregon.
The point of the “bring back” from “over there” (besides the adventure of being almost shot with a “32.5”) is the sure and certain knowledge that no matter where a single event (the raindrop) wants to fall (West of the Continental Divide, north of Oregon) the water eventually gets to a specific Future – the Ocean.
Different drops will hog-out the rivers involved a little differently. But that events will eventually wear things downhill in a general direction – West.
The Many Worlds Interpretation is very much incomplete, therefore. Since it’s a human expression of the rain falling at a “different place” and thus, a new parallel world is born. What’s missed is that the MWI also has a “reconvergence to it” – where the different futures all end up in one of the rivers and long before the dam pool behind McNary, the way forward to the Pacific solidifies. Which is analogous to the Future.
Which is useful information when sizing up “The News” as an Editor. You can see the Ocean out West. You get to tag specific raindrops daily and even report on the big pockets of erosion.
But the gullies of previous events are the rivulets of present which are delaminating into a future that’s not looking too good a year or three out.
If you’re not seeing it yet, perhaps a bit of contemplation may help.
Sorry for the length of today’s report – a lot of pieces are moving into place and that’s when we pay pretty close attention to the changes in the wind.
Write when you get rich,