Boy, is there ever a load of crap to wrap your head around. But, as luck would have it, this morning the thinking cap has been on as I’ve been working on part of my next book. Specifically, writing the chapter Toward a Computational Psychology really helps sorting through a complex world.
The reason is simple: People tend to wake up in the morning and focus on only one, two, or maybe three things in Life. That’s because it’s how human history has largely worked, at least to date.
The thing is, with the Internet (and social, and bots, and memes, and…and…) that has all changed. Rather than waking up in our feudal hovels on the King’s land and some henchman pushing up to report now or die for simple work – where we can replay Gregorian Chants and Parables told at Church the previous week, we are torn in a multiplicity of directions. We get ZZ-Top and iPhones and 50-bosses in the deal. Sucks and it’s complex.
Fortunately, we’ve evolved a grand coping mechanism in the form of a Life Schema that keeps things in balance. One the one side are your seven major physical systems, and in the new book we get into the “reality stacks” part; those “ways of thinking” ingrained since your childhood which continue driving you today.
But enough of the framework. Let’s get into the headlines and I’ll show you how this framework helps.
First up we have the JOBS report just our from the Labor Department:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 4.0 percent in June, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 499,000 to 6.6 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 7.0 million.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), and Asians (3.2 percent) increased in June. The jobless rate for teenagers (12.6 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (6.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
This has a couple of additional dimensions:
One is the CES Birth-Death Model. Think of this as the “made-up and estimated into being” jobs. It contributed 104,000 jobs to the “gains” – or almost half. Biggest losses were in education (-23,000) but it’s summer. So what else is new?
The other is the Labor Participation Rate: It dropped 2-10ths to 62.9 from 62.7. The markets won’t take kindly to that one.
The other useful things to consider are the population base and what portion of the workforce is actually making THINGS and what is the trend of SERVICES since we live in the biggest Shopkeeper economy in history.
The labor force increased 601,000 while the number employed went up 102,000 – which, oh, what a coincidence, is the same as the CES Birth-Death model growth.
In terms of your physical systems, if you have a job now you are fairly safe in your prospects of food, shelter/housing, transportation, and finance as you had last month. So we can move on.
This is potentially a huge one. President Trump, being the businessman, has been pressing for “fair trade” – which the Global Billionaire’s Club (GBC) has skewed anti-USA in order to eventually turn up into as globalist-socialist bottom.
As Trump has turned up the trade pressure, .
Stock Market Fallout?
A late friend (Dr. Paul Erdman) wrote a number of stunningly good financial novels based on his experience as a Swiss Bank president. He actually did some jail time because unlike the USA, when a Swiss banker finds things going wrong, they don’t become a political advisor…they go to jail.
It was in talking about such things I learned to “Think Big” in International finance.
So here’s the “financial novel” idea for the moment.
Suppose you were China. Had lots of US assets. Wanted to peddle some of them. The US stock market just made a dandy little high over the Fourth and is – by some charting approaches (including my own) in a position where there could be a huge downside in the US market.
What would China do? (Assume they are smarter than us…)
What they MIGHT want to do is short the hell out of the US market this week and then crash it over a weekend. In other words, the least surprising thing for me right now would be to walk in Monday morning and find the Dow futures down 400-800 points on some “breaking news” over the weekend that China’s going after us big-time in trade. All they would need to do would be put restrictions on critical goods that we don’t make here anymore and we’re hosed.
Why, the markets could collapse in a puddle – and for average investors, they would be locked out because it would be a Big Move and only the friends of China would be in on it.
Of course, it’s a calculated risk for Trump. He knows that without evening out tariffs, the US will implode financially and that would mean the price of overseas goods would skyrocket and that would cause rampant (if not Weimar-like) inflation. Simply put, Trump doesn’t have much in the way of policy choices, because the Globalists have been doing the slow bleed-out of America beginning with either Bill Clinton and everyone since, and maybe in the days of the Elder Bush – who we seem to recall was hip-deep ion the intelligence world which is the first operating level of the billionaires.
This is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE (*unless you’re China, in which case you’ve already got this novel written as an investment option filed under “economic war.”) but it is just that – what kinds of forces would be unleashed in a Global Economic Reset that we might be able to win.
Otherwise, we end up a third world bitch-state of the Globalists which is where the past three or four presidents were driving, blindsided by bullshit advisors.
Thank God Trump at least can read a balance sheet and a cash-flow report!
Bet big to win big….this is poker and we’ve been the pokee’s for long enough.
The futures are only down 30, but I would expect the market to close down triple digits, but maybe that won’t come until next week. We shall see…
On the Webolution
President Trump is offering Elizabeth Warren a million bucks is she can prove her “Native American” heritage claims. But, we figure that money is safe…
Clintonista biggie Sidney Blumenthal may be invited to appear before the Nunes committee.
And speaking of the Circus, the Mueller fishing expedition is now gobbling up DOJ money pushing the cost of the “investigation” up around $16.7-mil so far if I’m reading the numbers here right. For the two-bit results so far? AYSM?
Meantime, there’s trouble in the barricades and the black leaders of the webolution are playing pile-on Nancy Pelosi for not defending (inciter) Maxine Waters. Could happen to a…a….where were we?
Shake and Quake
Our Indonesia Bureau Chief (and former son of the Republic of Texas) Bernard Grover checking in from Jakarta with this:
Might want to keep an eye on Anak Kerakatau (aka Krakatoa). It appears to have entered a constant low-level eruptive phase, and could expand if conditions are right. Will update as needed.
Back to writing and editing. Peoplenomics tomorrow will be really interesting if you are prepping for the Webolution. Otherwise, do remember there’s going to be a lot more fallout to come.
Moron Mondee! C u den.