It’s axiomatic that there’s a modest upside bias to markets ahead of three-day weekends. There’s also a bias to summer rallies. Perhaps related to more “sunshine Vitamin D” when people are out in it.
Or, it’s just the Federal Reserve trying to paper-over the Second Depression which was ushered in a year-and-a-half ago when Covid-19 was set loose. All Depressions need their scapegoats, I suppose.
The futures teed off to the upside earlier, waiting for two bits of data to land.
#1 The Challenger Job Cuts Report
With the ADP report clocking 374,000 new jobs being created in August, it would have to be an incredibly large job cut’s report to budge optimism off hyper. Frankly, I don’t think this’ll do it:
“U.S.-based employers announced 15,723 job cuts in August, down 17% from the 18,942 cuts announced in July. Last month’s total is the lowest since in June 1997, when 15,091 job cuts were announced, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
August’s total is 86% lower than last August, when 115,762 cuts were announced.”
Tomorrow we get the Federal numbers. When the most important number of all will be the total number of people working. Here’s a look by – my month – over the past decade:
The top yellow number – a bit more than 153-million people working in March of 2017 – is our “Recovery Truth Detector.”
#2 Weekly Unemployment Claims
A second reason the Job Cuts number was predictably light? Unemployment claims have been drifting downward. While generally cheery stuff, behind it is the number of people who have simply run out of benefits. Which is treated in media like it’s a “fart in church.” Problem now is when does the labor-driven inflation ratchet up?
We have to wonder how many made-up jobs will be fenagled into defense spending in 2022? I here there’s an $82-billion resupply hole to fill…plus a lot of contractor jobs open, too…
Dow futures were up 60 after the data. Bitcoin is kissing $50. Our outlook is still for $54-56K, but certainly not advice!
Vax Paranoia Tracking
In Japan, Pharmacist finds black particles inside Moderna vaccine vial, says the NY Daily News.
IF it turns out to be nano particles, then yes, time to get paranoid and organize that “arm” revolution in politics. It’s all STILL on an EUA – nothing is really approved despite the hypenstance and PR efforts. Though Goebbels would be impressed.
Although Joe Biden is getting creamed in polls, His bungling Afghanistan has reduced him to under 47% approval according to this Rasmussen Pole. Unadjusted the poll gives Slow a 42% approval rating. (Let me look at my watch…ahem…)
With Joe’s numbers in free-fall, a lot of people are wondering – should anything go wrong with his health, for example – how would the alternative play? As a result stories like Even voters who like Kamala Harris worry about her future are popping up.
Although it would be easy to jump on an anti-Harris wave early, we’ll stick to journalism and wait for her to roll out Queen of Caracas agendas.
The week’s “Weather Body Count Finals” are being played today on the East Coast. Depending on who tallied – and when – there are 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 deaths attributable to the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida.
In the interest of political correctness, please refer to Ida as a “post tropical cyclone” now instead of “bad-ass storm.” The party commissariat thanks you.
Out West, the fires continue in the Lake Tahoe region. Dixie fire is up to 847,308 acres. Since that’s up 70-thousand acres in a day, we’re reckon the million acres mark will be hit Saturday or Sunday, depending on winds and weather in the south Tahoe region. Some improvement in forecasts today, but will it hold?
Cost of Climate
You’re probably sick of me pointing out that climate is all-so-much-hype. (You may not appreciate Bjorn Lombog’s books, huh?)
But here we go again. While the headline makes sense in the New York Times’ Climate Change Is Bankrupting America’s Small Towns, tying the costs to something like flooding from Ida isn’t passing our B.S. detection monitors.
According to our earliest climate logs, there was a “40-days and 40-night” event before wheel use was widespread. The 1931 floods in China killed upwards of 4-million – and that was in a world of 2.07-million people. With today’s world population 7.89-billion those floods would scale to as many as 15-million in current population equivalents.
All with virtually no man-caused warming.
So yeah – throw the penalty flags for co-hyperating media. 10-yards. First down.
Why is anyone covering John Kerry? He’s making nicey with the Chinese who get a MUCH better climate shake than we (the US) do: U.S. Envoy Kerry Says China Is Crucial To Handling Climate Crisis. Oh, wait, NPR is…er…agenda-driven? Meantime the Bidenista’s have roped America back into the crooked Paris sham.
Texas Heartbeat Law Stands
This one will cause handwringing, we’re sure: High court divides 5-4 to leave Texas abortion law in place. Basically, if there’s a heartbeat (around 6-weeks) then no abortion in Texas.
We’ve been amazed for 50+ years on this abortion question: Can’t people control their animal instincts or figure out how birth control works? The Lippes Loop IUD was invented in 1962 and “the Pill” was approved in 1960.
Condoms have been around since as early as 1642, too. Guys have equal responsibility (‘cuz that IS equality, bubba, when you play baby roulette).
Leaving morning headscratcher as: “Why can humans seem to operate phones and moderately complex computer apps OK, but for some reason the “new tech” of not making additional babies escapes them?” (And they vote?)
Post-Industrial Monetizations Check
Unable to manufacture much in America, let’s see how our new “business incubator industries” are doing:
Gender: California seeks gender neutral displays in large stores. They’ve gone – what was the CCR song? Oh yes: Up Around the Bend.
Race: Most people didn’t notice it this week, but… A judge ruled a law prosecuting re-entry after deportation is racist. Immigration experts call the decision groundbreaking. We simplify that to “idiotic.” “Sounds like another Obamanista move, G!) Appointed by the Agitator-in-Chief, himself. (We don’t visit Nevada anymore…)
Shaming: We’re starting to see some employment opportunities on the horizon for the Shaming Industry. Not sure how that works? A quick lesson! Start with a questionable premise and build a new fairytale, following? How’s-about As denying climate change becomes impossible, fossil-fuel interests pivot to ‘carbon shaming’ Whatever. (No climate shaming us unless you own more solar panels than we do (35 is the magic number). There’s talkers and there’s walkers, yah see?
Social Security Worries: Social Security is projected to be insolvent a year earlier than previously forecast. Great…
Here’s on that sounds like an episode of the TV series Leverage. Drug industry banks on its Covid clout to halt Dems’ push on prices.
No surprise here: Matt Lee says Green card holders left in Afghanistan were forgotten. Joe have a memory problem…or is it voters?
Around the Ranch
Where to begin? Got an estimate to trim back the two 80-foot white oaks between the shop and the house. $1,800 for a trim (*best done after the leaves are off). OR $1,600 to simply cut ’em down and move them to a burn pile.
Problem is (with another heat advisory today): What’s the energy cost of the shade they provide in summer. And how much is recaptured (if removed) because it will improve winter solar gains if entirely removed? (My head hurts thinking about the math trail to get to the right answer.)
ShopTalk Sunday focus is on Ham Radio. Final design of the next Super Antenna is done. It’s 7.15 dbi (5.00 db total compared to a dipole). Maximum lobe in the middle of the 20-meter DX phone band is 13.23 dBd (15.38 dBi). Max lobe takeoff angle (cloverleaf pattern) is 20-degrees and the return loss is >41.1 dB.
Oh, and highest SWR is 1.25:1 at the low end of 20, 1.2:1 at the high end and lower in between with dead flat at 14.175 in the middle of the DX phone band.
Now I have to fire up the 3D printer farm and crank out spacers because spacing IS a bit critical…7 wire magic!
Oh-oh…did your eyes just glaze over? (Elaine leaves the room screaming when I say the word “antenna” or “tower…”
Write when you get rich,