We will get to the jobs data in a minute, but first a quick discussion of trade since Trump has stuck his foot into dangerous waters. As we’ve said before, what set up the failure of Hoover (1, Trump could be #2) was his messing with trade and tariffs in the late 1920’s. See if this doesn’t sound like Trump:
“Hoover was a leader in the Efficiency Movement, which held that every institution public and private was riddled with unsuspected inefficiencies. They all could be improved by experts who could identify the problems and solve them. He also believed in the importance of volunteerism and of the role of individuals in society and the economy.”
We see the Draining Swamp as being akin to this – a rough historical echo – of the efficiency movement.
Not that it’s a sin…hell, it may be a huge benefit. But the tinkering with foreign trade via tariffs is like trying to bake a cake with nitroglycerin. Might work, might not.
China holds a HUGE amount of US Treasury bonds. They, in many ways, are the only reason we can keep America in business.
The Treasury sells the bonds to China, which parcels them out to banks, which mix in grey money from places like drug cartels, and then the money is used to buy up American real estate. We are borrowing away the country.
This is what we describe as a long-chain business model. In other words, it’s absolutely true, but there are enough cut-outs and long enough time-scales, that average people never become aware that forensic economics is a profession. Folks can’t begin to understand it because it’s not predigested for them by the agenda-driven MSM.
Trade is (write this down somewhere) “War Between National Business Models.”
Pay particular attention to the New York Times piece, too: Trump Doubles Down on Potential Trade War With China.
The International Trade deficit and needing some fresh business model stimulus in America is driving this.
And sure, you don’t think there’s a business model angle to The Wall project?
Just out from the Labor Department:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining.
Household Survey Data
In March, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the sixth consecutive month, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, changed little.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.5 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (6.9 percent), Asians (3.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or
no change in March. “
Now for our drill-down:
- Labor participation rate is key: Improved a 10th to 62.9%.
- Goods producing was up 15,000.
- And of the 103,000 jobs claimed, 65,000 were estimated into existence in the CES Birth-Death Model.
Pruitt: Swamp Draining Nightmare
As long as we’re on business models this morning, there are a couple that are being attacked by the Trump administration that deserve mention.
First note the reshuffle at EPA. Scott Pruitt’s job in jeopardy amid expanding ethics issues is not the real story, despite how it’s positioned in the Washington Post. Ditto Job changes for EPA officials who questioned Scott Pruitt,
On travel and more security? Given the YouTube shooting by a woman, Iranian-born, liberal, yada,.yada,, it would make sense for anyone, but especially an on-point Swamp drainer – to be extra careful about security.
Again: It’s all about Business Models
Regardless of the East Coast Liberal bias that spins everything into a political context (because that’s all them can think about) the reality is that most news stories like this first batch is about business models and nothing more.
Trade? US has run out of things to monetize – especially with Pruitt taking down the runaway regulators of the deep state.
Jobs? We don’t have enough…
Swamp? It’s terribly evident that with just a tiny bit of thinking that owning an issue means owning the business model first. Like Obama did for climate as an Illinois state senator. Got the business model set with carbon exchanging and then rolled on.
That roll included paying mostly for studies that jiggered data and supported the “climate change” narrative. People don’t give up their (wrong-headed) business models easily. How long did we know smoking was bad, for example?
Facing Down Facebook.
Not only EU says Facebook confirmed data of 2.7 million Europeans ‘improperly shared’ but add to that, FB is reportedly using a software tool that lets them “disappear” emails from Zuke Markerberg. Uh-hu…see Facebook messages from Mark Zuckerberg secretly removed from users’ inboxes.
The Useless Department (TUD)
This is our dustbin of news stories that make us wonder what people put into their heads:
Male Democrat accused of using Colorado Senate’s women’s restroom ‘multiple times’. Wait, did they say democrat? Don’t they say bathroom choice is a right or something? Color me confused…still.
And then there’s this lil gem: Romanian ‘dead man’ to go court again to prove he’s alive.
With that, :45 before the open, futures are still down 212 on the Dow, but here lately the market has become too unpredictable, so I’m in cash for a while till the world comes to its senses. Could be a long wait, year, total get that…
See you Monday, or for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow. Have a new business idea to kick around…