As I admitted to Peoplenomics subscribers Saturday, there’s a reason I clicked out of a short position in the market Friday. Two chart snips will “tell all.”
The first is the 1929 comparison. In our work here, there’s a (small) chance that a top could be in. But, before going lower, even after the initial break in September 1929, there was still a brief bounce before the Gates of Hell really opened-up. When we compare the Dow of 1929 with our modern Aggregate Index, there reasons for caution.
Which plays itself out this morning as a massive rally in markets. Already with 2-hours to the open, the Dow futures were showing +300 on the Dow and +40 on the S&P.
Which would be mighty graceful, since as the top green arrow match-up suggests, IF there is a top in place, the first thing that should happen would be a minor rally (as in 1929) before we start down again.
What really prompted my return to a cash position (and this is NOT financial advice…just kibitzing with a nutjob in the woods of East Texas) is that in Elliott terms, in order for the End of the World to show up right now, we would need to have logged a “fifth wave failure.”
In order to make the Peoplenomics charts visually simple, I tend to use “trading boxes” of various colors to prompt my thinking.
This “fifth wave not complete” problem, for example, works out like so with a normal five-wave advance expected if this is not a failing fifth wave:
There are several more ways to look at the present market. Which we will get into on the Peoplenomics side Wednesday.
For now, to begin this “Jobs Week” we have a “challenge in the charts” and it is whether the G20 has enough of a scare from recent market action to “our on the coal” at the printing presses and put in another high.
Getting High Matters
No, my little roach rabbit, not that kind of High. The kind that the likes of J. Powell, Ben in the back room, and Janet’s Yellen about kind.
You see, it’s one of those wanker-theories of economics that if the market runs down more than 55-calendar (or 37-trading days) from a major High, then it’s possible a change of trend is at hand. That’s when you head for the bunker.
Thing is – as of this morning – our Aggregate Index last peaked on February 12. IF that were the all-time high – and it were to stick – then we could project a major bottom (from which an actual Crash could follow) around 56 calendar days on (due to the president’s holiday). This would put us when? April 9, 2021, or thereabout.
I say thereabout because 37-trading days would be April 7th…but out in there, somewhere.
It would be much “prettier” for the market to rally like hell – up to the top of the green “trading box” and collapse from there.
In which case, something like a Mid April High, which would then decline (as a Wave 1 down) and then rally into late August to early September (wave 2 bounce) and then collapse into a 20-percent type decline into year end. Which would set up the wave 4 year-end rally which would then fail into a wave 5 washout low in early 2022.
My consigliere’s view is the “utter collapse” would then follow and it would fit better with the spiral calendar, his own long wave cycles, and it would set up the WWC (war with China) for the 2023 -2025 period.
Economics Nuts? Meet Vice
On the long wave econ playing field, we can already see how the opposition teams are “working it.”
I believe that the most under-appreciated story of these pre-War times is the Washington Post report today “How U.S. manufacturers were hobbled by a shortage of tiny silicon chips.”
Already, several auto plants have been hobbled by the shortage. And, frankly, this is exactly the kind of reason that one of my favorite hobbies has been restoration of tube-type ham radio gear. Chips are great for driving memory displays and that DSP technology we all love. But, the downside is what?
More important: Since reports are that the chip plants are all running full-tilt, the logical question is “Where are the Chips going?”
We suspise (sic) – with a little prompting from the well-placed and deep-thinking crowd – that China is diverting as much silicon as possible to making masses of drones in order to have no airborne interference when (in 2022 or later) they simply conquer Taiwan.
The idiotic (strategic) imbalance that American president’s – since and including Clinton – allowed to develop was in America, our “best” chip making capacity is around 15 microns. New capacity in Asia is down around 3 microns and they’re gunning for finer than that.
Dare I mention that the only president with a clue just lost an election last year and continues on (touted by the lefty press) as a hate target, when in fact the ONLY non-Socialist-Globalist outcome retaining American independence would have been MAGA with a goal of one micro chip tech?
The reason the tech matters so much is that flight-time *(and thus range) of drone swarms is circumscribed by payload weight and energy density of the battery packs.
As we recently pointed out, if the PLA can make 10,000 drones for under $200 each, then you have a weapon system cost of 2-million dollars.
Put up a cloud of drones as a swarm and you can drop $100-million aircraft like flies. Statistically, the loss of drones would be 5%. So $100,000 to take down 3-4 times $100-million? Hell yes, that’s a pay-off ratio the Chinese would aim for.
WE assume the O’Biden administration has no counter. And having no foresight to do anything other than jaw-bone and study? We may have to join one of our New Mexico readers in the study of Mandarin while there’s time.
Busting Up America – Game On
We continue to fault the Obama regime for deepening the racial divide in America. An operation ongoing as “Reversing Course: Obama Says He Favors Reparations As Proposed Legislation Gains More Support.”
Moreover, here we read how “Biden adviser Cedric Richmond sees first-term progress on reparations.”
The problem we have is that a new kind of racism is emerging, as we told you to expect. Financial.
Keeping America wrapped around the axle of emotional issues like “reparations” is far more important to the Chinese, who would love nothing better than a 15-micron enemy.
Personally? Any talk of “reparations” should apply to ALL RACES or, it would be un-Constitutional on its face.
Let’s take a quote from the Axios-sourced article to illustrate:
“if you start talking about free college tuition to [Historically Black Colleges and Universities] and you start talking about free community college in Title I and all of those things, I think that you are well on your way.”
Now let’s flip it around and apply to Whites as well:
“if you start talking about free college tuition to [Historically White Colleges and Universities] and you start talking about free community college in Title I and all of those things, I think that you are well on your way.”
So, we wonder, doesn’t such discriminatory policy violate the Equal Protection notion? Or, as we going to be whipped into the White-hating (as in South Africa) which will let “Rome burn” while “China fiddles?”
Difficult times ahead…we’re either all equal under the law, or the guns will come out. Judging by the headlines, the OBiden administration is listening to Chinese instructions on an earpiece.
Most of America has already had their brainwashing installed by the ultra-libs in education, so yeah, not a bad time to be a senior headed for the exit. Won’t be fun to watch.
(The Ure family lost 17 in the Civil War on the North fighting to end slavery…so where’s our free tuition?)
Equality is a simple thing to understand: Recast proposed laws and giveaways for other races and see how much support there is.
Toss in Read Jane Fonda’s powerful Golden Globes speech on diversity to see how the press is selling it, too. Try to remember “One Night in Miami“ is fiction. And much of the 1692 Project is historical revisionism.
Check your emotions at the door. Chips and spin are out to conquer America. And leading…
As if the big picture wasn’t contradictory (and lopsided) enough, the morass of Monday also includes…
Laughably: U.S. condemns arrest of 47 Hong Kong pro-democracy activists while we can’t get anti-democracy crap out of our own schools.
And how cool is this? “Iceberg larger than New York City breaks off in Antarctica.”
NY Times Becoming Useful?
Perish the thought, but AFTER the obligatory Trump hating at the top of the paper this morning, eventually there were some potentially useful stories if you had the patience to work past the political crap:
Their story “So You Saved a Little Money This Past Year. Now What?” is the kind of rational we don’t see enough of…
And for the Crypto fans, “China Charges Ahead With a National Digital Currency” is another must read. Assuming you saw BTC was rallying this morning along with markets. $48,335 and rising at click time.
Toss in cross-Gotham rival the NY Post rolling with Tiger rehash and more royal Oprah yawns and suddenly, New York papers are back on our “interesting battles to watch” sheet.
OK, off to focus on why the home physical therapy for Elaine isn’t rolling yet…Blizzards and Bureaucracies for breakfast. But more on that one some other time.
For normal people, this is a sleep in week: Get up Wednesday for the ADP job numbers, Thursday for Job Cuts and unemployment claims, then Friday for the Federal Fudge.
Write when you get rich,