As we so frequently do, we continue to ask awkward questions about some of the data behind (what passes for) news stories.
Let’s begin with the Jobs report, more properly the Employment Situation Report issued monthly by Labor. Today’s helping looks like this:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing.
More interesting are several side-dishes. One of which is the CES Birth Death Model. This little gem is the governments dart toss at what the Gig Economy may be creating with less-than fully employed people writing apps and doing whatever gigs they can find. Remember, this is an estimate: And this month it added 72,000 jobs, so about a third of the jobs were estimated into existence.
One other data point we keep mentioning for historical purposes is the total number of people actually employed which has never made it above the 2018 levels:
Today’s report places employed at 155,975,000. Which means we are back to where employment was in September 2018.
As highlighted here, the number of people working in Fed 2018 and the number actually working in November of ’21 was essentially the same. Which means that things like Brandon and Covid have resulted in zero economic progress in…uh…almost four years.
One of our readers asked in the Comments how can government report people leaving jobs en masse one day (BLS – Jan 4: “and total separations
increased to 6.3 million“) and gains in the “offishul” report.
- Government lies. JFK, UFOs, Hunter’s Laptop, Gulf of Tonkin, downwinders, radiation testing – you know the list is too long, but it’s huge.
- Churn counts. Classic shopkeeper economy: Turnover is the whole story. As long as everyone plays the game, the musical chairs continue. Lay ’em off week 1, hire week 2, report remarkable growth week 3. That kind of crap.
We have no idea how the bidding for their control files is going, but news that Supreme Court weighs vaccine rules affecting more than 80M | AP News is sure to have upped the bid.
Wonder which Supreme Quirks have pharma stocks? Bet none of ’em recuse, though.
Nickel on the side? “Hear me, hear me…”
Not Again! Covid Stats Class
The latest CV-19 stats out of England are a never-ending source of challenge.
For one, because they reveal there is no (as in none, zero, nada) reason to be vaccinating children. Other than PFG (pure effing greed). Refer to the two highlights on the right:
As you can see in the lower pair of highlights, the risk of death appears to be 5.77 times higher for Elaine and me (70-79 and unvaxxed) versus our odds of dying with the vax.
This number has been bothering me, since even with CV Rev. 1, our odds of death were only 3 times higher. So why, then, are the apparent odds getting worse?
The answer is likely a definitional one. You see, the UK stats clearly state, “Unadjusted with two doses” (and 60-days) [counting cutoff] in the column header.
Several lines of inquiry for the discriminating mind here:
- Where are the Boosted (3 or more shot) deaths? (Are they in this?)
- Second, since we have longer time-scales available, how can we get a longer-reporting window. Like compare death rates at 90-days, or even better 6-months and beyond?
- Third, since you can keep a nearly brain-dead body alive a very long time with extreme heroic measures, we would dearly love to know if there is any reimbursement differential offered to healthscare facilities? In other words, is there any difference in government payment claims for unvaxxed patients versus vaxxed?
- Are there step time payments? In other words, any differential in reimbursements for keeping a core going to day 61 before unplugging?
We have a year of data, so WTF? I’m not trying to be rude, crude, or lewd here. But there’s insufficient data and far too much guidance.
In my “corporate days” I ran what is essentially “Open Books Management.” Get all the data out so everyone could see it and draw their own conclusions. Experience says when you do that, the results improve a lot.
On the other hand, when the odds of dying from no vax are doubling outside statistical expectations, then that – in forensic accounting – is how you spot the rats.
So, where’s the comparative death rate from Shot Day to 6-months? If there’s a larger than Gaussian Noise differential, hell yes, we’ll do a conventional (Novavax or other) non mRNA prophylactic. Given the safety data, an actual trial, and no “Can’t sue us” bullshit. All disclosures in 14-point font instead of micro engraving would be a bonus for those of us over 70 on the clock, but over 100 on the IQ tests.
Statistics and Lawyers
The other major revelation in the ongoing UK reports is how the administration of Covid shots actually increase your odds of getting Covid.
Even this is deficient, though. Problematically, we have no way of ascertaining how the “deaths per 100,000” is calculated. Is that deaths per 100,000 of the general UK population, on the one hand, or per 100,000 per specimen date? It makes a big difference. General population basis or presented cases?
100,000 on specimen date overstates the vaccine effectiveness dramatically. On a general population basis, it’s improved but also not foolproof.
Still, we think over time CDC/FDA and the “crisis club” will have a bevy of lawyers sorting out what a slipperier “right” definition of “vaccine” is. “Helps for a short while, but can kill you, too…” might reduce the Government Blunt Force Hype.
Wish we had a real Federal Trade Commission that would look into other branches of government, know what I’m saying?
Medicine is running an unlicensed casino and really ought to be audited as such. Too damn many of our friends are getting it. Son G2 had 2 mRNA shots (*as first responders were required) and still got his ass kicked by Covid.
We stand by our early 2020 assessment that this is a bioweapon and a monetization. Mengele meets Wall St.
One other Covid note: Prayers, please, for long-time reader Mark in SF who’s double-vaxxed and with the ‘vid now. See the night sweats discussion in comments.
In Ure’s Shorts
Tipster Linda in Houston thinks The Fed is scaring markets with the triple threat of policy tightening (cnbc.com) explains a lot. Sadly, over half of America is under IQ 100 by definition, though.
What we really want to know is “Did they get my resume?” Joe Biden may announce nominations for Federal Reserve this week. I can shuffle, kowtow, and inside trade with the best of ’em. I also pass the “We need easily manipulated, don’t rock the boat, greedsters…” test, too. For enough money, of course.
Not Climate, it’s weather: Pennsylvania snowfall totals: How much fell in your area? (yahoo.com). Ever notice how modern marketing drives us to understand things we can’t change anyway? Like Fake Effect snow? As dumb a use of brain cells as “Desert effect heat…”
Political correctness matters – some places: 7-Eleven Beijing fined US$23,500 for ‘incomplete maps of China’ that ‘wrongly presented Taiwan’,
‘Kraine ‘tude indicator: Think war can be averted? Consider this kind of bluster: Blinken says no progress with Russia so long as ‘gun to Ukraine’s head’.
And here’s something to power sweet dreams for you: When Software Bugs Go Nuclear: Testing a Digital Arsenal. And you thought simple EMP would be bad?
(Roast Leg of Pork Day)
Some portion (50%?) of Ure’s genetics is Danish. And while we have been focusing on eating for our genes for a while, days like this are ideal for a little “home genetics” cooking.
In Denmark, roast leg of pork with gravy is a stylish cold weather meal. Many recipes including one over here for traditional Flæskesteg.
Cooking for your genetics is something you might look into. Also notice how you can “modify your brain” with cooking. If I eat the right amount of high purine food, the brain goes into hyper-drive. Pushed too far, there’s gout, of course. But that “sweet spot” of brain chemistry is TDF. Toss on some light pumping for the brain and it’s really author heaven.
Got more work done on the Grow Room this week, including the clear roof panels on. Next week, the sides and finishing are on the agenda. More in the ShopTalk Sunday column here. Tool sluts gather ’round.
New tractor filters and hydraulic fluid are “dribbling in” so to speak.
And day two of having sourdough “starter pancakes” this morning. I’ll keep you posted on how that little lab project goes.
Off to watch the Dow bust below 36,000. With no all-time high this week, JanCrash is still on the table. Maybe when the Ukraine talks (predictably) blow up.
Write when you get rich,