Hot off the press release:

NEW YORK, September 27, 2016 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in July, up from 5.0% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.2% annual increase, down from 4.3% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.0%, down from 5.1% in June. 

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last six months. In July, Portland led the way with a 12.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle at 11.2%, and Denver with a 9.4% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2016 versus the year ending June 2016.  

The press release continues:

MONTH-OVER-MONTH Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in July. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.6% increase in July. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-overmonth increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease, and the 20-City Composite remains unchanged. After seasonal adjustment, 12 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.

Remember, this is with the Fed jamming M1 up at a 10% annualized rate…and this is all we get?

septhousing

My analysis is simple:  We will be in recession in Q1 2017, simple as that.  The election optimism will be gone and the reality will be settling in…

Market futures have dropped a few points, too, so I’m not the lone forecaster.  Remember, a week from now we will be entering out Crash Windows.

Thought we forgot about them? 

How the Debate Was “Rigged”

The first 30-seconds of the so-called “debate” last night told me all I needed to know:

1. The “moderator” and Trump referred to Hillary as “Secretary Clinton.” She is no longer “secretary” – John Kerry is. As I further explained in detail in Monday’s column, when there is only one of something (like Secretary of State) ONLY the current office-holder is referred to as “Secretary.” When they leave office, they revert to Mr. or Mrs. In conversation but they can be addressed as “honorable” in correspondence. But no, she ISN’T SECRETARY. JOHN KERRY IS.

2.The audio chain on Trump was different than Clinton. By my ear, at least 10 but more likely 20 db more compression. This is why Trump sounded at times like …well, let’s not go THERE. Instead see Why was Trump sniffling so much? Audio processing. Also, his equalization was set to boost a bit more highs than her Hillness. Bad form, but only people who’ve run (and in my case taught) audio engineering would have likely caught the difference. Excess compression in the audio chain is why Trump’s every small breathing sound was amplified and Clinton’s was not. Near as I could tell, no noise gating on Trump, either. Clinton audio was much better.

3.No email discussion.

4.No Benghazi discussion.

5.No lapses of memory discussion.

6.Horrible “moderator” who, as is pointed out in the article over here played the role of “Third Debater.” I’m not the only one saying it. See: DEBATE DEBACLE? Holt faces criticism over his moderation efforts.

7.And purely coincidental, we are sure: “Popular Radio Host Michael Savage Broadcast Shut Down Nationwide as He Discusses Clinton’s Health…”

Hey! You’re not seeing a pattern here, are you?

Amazingly, and despite the glaring errors apparent to us, Trump was judged to have held his own.

Sadly, I’d have to score it a Clinton win: She owned the name-game, she skated on email and the pay-to-see-her foundation, and she remained vertical and had better audio.

Toss in the feds working “election security” and it’s as good as a Hillary shoo-in already.

Oh, one other thing:

Remember all the charlatans who were telling us Hillary would be out before the debate, then by the end of September and so forth?

Don’t hold your breath on those hystrionics either. Look at the data and look at the media buys and budgets.

Hillary – as we called it 18-months ago – is still the apparent high bidder and the only thing that matters now is who counts the votes.

There, Clinton is likely to (paraphrasing Sgt. Pepper’s here) get by with a little help from her friends. I don’t want to break it to you, but stories like UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in Electoral College don’t matter.

MH-17 Replay

Russia: If MH17 was shot down, Ukraine did it.

Speaking of Planes

Did you see where the Iowa State president says he will stop using school plane?

Ours is for sale…see Trade-a-Plane under Beech A23-19. Make you a hell of a deal. Not an SR-22 GTS, but less than 10% of the price, too…

Ure’s Global Recession 2017 Forecast

Remember it? Said it would be here next year.

Now, looks like even the cheerleaders are figuring there something suspect in the punch bowl: WTO cuts 2016 world trade growth forecast on China slowdown, falling US imports.

You KNOW when the WTO warns of “trade slide” it will be bad.

Europe’s Civil War

Is another forecast that is slowly ramping up. Most recently 2 bomb attacks in Germany. Of course when a mosque is damaged, there will be payback…and so goes escalation.

All because Angela Merkel and as pack of German liberals missed the part about the Battle of Tours in history class.

War: Always in Style

Think this will hold? Colombia, Marxist rebels sign accord ending 52-year war.  Seems to me Marxists don’t give up so easily.  Take for example how long it has taken them to occupy America.

Losing Our Past, Dooming Our Future
Home Prices Chill