Housing Screams Higher

Printing Press On? Why Not?

Even though the U.S. Money supply is up over 20% for the year, normalcy bias will prevent most people from caring because their home prices have been rocking-it.

Just out:

NEW YORK, DECEMBER 29, 2020 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 8.4% annual gain in October, up from 7.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 7.5%, up from 6.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 7.9% year-over-year gain, up from 6.6% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in October. Phoenix led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase,
followed by Seattle with an 11.7% increase and San Diego with an 11.6% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2020 versus the year ending September 2020.

The report continued:

The National Index posted a 1.4% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.6%. In October, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before and after seasonal adjustment.
“The surprising strength we noted in last month’s report continued into October’s home price data,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index gained 8.4% relative to its level a year ago, accelerating from September’s 7.0% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 7.5% and 7.9%, respectively) also rose more rapidly in October than they had done in September. The housing market’s strength was once again broadly-based: all 19 cities for which we have October data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in October than they had gained in the 12 months ended in September.

As I reported earlier, (see this morning’s normal report here) when the Fed has jacked up M2 by better than 20% for the year, it’s kinda hard to lose money on the world’s best inflation hedge…

64 thoughts on “Housing Screams Higher”

  1. An unseen victim of all of this will be the less expensive restaurants and diners:Continually rising rents will keep more and more people eating at home.Since the landlords can’t consume any more food,their additional funds will go elsewhere.

    • I think during the 1940’s there were over 100 U.S. automakers.

      Every major city had their own unique department store.

      All the mom and pops of that time supplied the biggies.

      The heartbeat of capitalism consolidates. Now we have three U.S. auto companies, F, GM and TSLA. No mom and pops supply them with anything.

      Macy’s consolidated any retailer worth anything and is broke.

      The “Service Industry” was consolidated. Mom and pop are dead meat just like the mom and pop auto/retail suppliers from way back when.

      During the lock down I notice a Taco Bell by me always has a line in the drive thru. I think I’ve only seen the window without a car three times over the last year.

      Mom and pops are closed.

      • Over one Hundred Auto makers. wow. Interesting info that. Was it a Rockefeller, who pronounced competition to be a sin. It was either him or one of his counterparts.
        Objective mostly achieved.

      • The two sins of any capitalistic system is completion and regulations, they have managed by buying the political system to destroy the regulations, and now with their billion dollar + buy ups of the competition they have succeeded, utopia is here at last is their cry.!!!

      • Locally, the Mom & Pop restaurants which own their own facilities are still open. The old adage, “In a depression, cash is king”, still holds.
        Most people think that saying refers to stuffing the mattress with paper money. Staying out of debt is what that is about. Property wholly owned is an asset; property held on credit is a debt. You say that to the young sharpies, and they act like you are an uneducated lunatic. Lunacy is in the eye of the beholder, and I think I am seeing a lot of crazed ex-sharpies out there trolling for a quick buck. This is not a good environment for fearless, undisciplined, speculative investment with OPM (Other Peoples Money).

  2. The housing market in the Bay Area was also very robust. Multiple offers, bidding wars have been the norm for the past years, but went into overdrive the past few months. These are mostly for single family homes though. Condos and townhome prices were flat, as people during COVID demanded yards, space and more freedom to add on and build out to accommodate home offices and home gyms.

  3. So much for housing, but what about the Nashville bombing? Too convenient to say it’s a deranged person who was upset about 5G. Guess where the confiscated Dominion voting machines were kept? The ATT building! The bomber was a patsy, just like Lee Harvey Oswald. You’ll never hear that from the drive-by media.

  4. “Housing Screams Higher”

    So are Bread prices…
    Not that long ago… a loaf of bread was 65 cents.. I bought three loaves of bread the other day at 3.58..the cheaper soda bread (they put less flour in it) was 2.58…
    Before covid the 3.58 loaf sold for 2.45 and the soda bread was at 1.98
    If you Want to see it in motion.. just watch the lottery prize numbers. Before covid it took half as long to reach the higher grand prize numbers..
    The small business owners I know are struggling big time.. many are not sure how long they can keep the doors open.
    It’s good to know we are sending hundreds of billions of dollars to other countries..we sure dont want their economy to tank like ours is..
    I thought it was really sweet and generous for them to offer three times what the taxpayer will get to illegal refugees to..

  5. I’ve been house shopping for at least 6 years because there is nothing but pocket listings that go in a matter of hours or crappy, overpriced houses that never sell and just go on and off the market to make them look like fresh listings. You could advise me to get more aggressive and work more closely with an agent. But almost totally without fail, the houses dead on the market were bought in 2007 at the last peak bubble prices and the owners refuse to take a loss. That is a good warning not to get aggressive with overpriced junk.

    The houses I’ve made offers on have missed by about the amount of the agent’s commission. People are too stupid to go fsbo and deserve to pay 6% for some dipstick to fill in the blanks on boilerplate.

    • Not sure where you are looking for houses, but around where I’m at, King County, Wa, due to the competitive market, the sales commissions have been running at about 3-4%, total. There are a plethora of homes on the market, everything from near perfect to tear downs, but yes, the ‘good ones’ – meaning they are ‘priced right’, usually go within 24 hours – which means you have to have an experienced, knowledgeable agent that knows the area/communities extremely well – you can’t have an agent looking over 2 or 3 counties for homes – you got to narrow it down.

      Doing fsbo in today’s world – not me- way too many headaches, legal issues and liabilities, and hassles – and you have to deal with the general public. Even though I used to sell real estate back throughout the 90s, in today’s sue happy world, there’s just no way. I have seen buyers sue agents and homeowners because the listing said ‘2300 sqft home – buyer to verify square footage prior to purchase’ and after closing, the buyers turn around and sue everyone involved in the transaction because the actual square footage was 2298 sq ft. And unless it is a cash transaction, the mountain of paperwork and the time it is taking to do a successfully completed mortgage – I certainly wouldn’t want that headache – especially if that ready to close mortgage goes sideways 3 days before closing.

      • Every agent in the country has ‘seen’ those same things and tells the same stories to scare up business. Even though it would take a few regulation changes to send them all back to the used car lot, zillo has the whole re business on the ropes. btw, you realize that banks do mortgages, not real estate agents?

    • I’ve paid 8% commission to unload nightmare properties at the top of the market. I’d have paid twice that to be as distant from the transactions as possible. I refused to go to the closing and just gave my agent and lawyer whatever signatures they needed. I hire an agent for the same reason I’d hire an accountant or lawyer. They have to do the face to face stuff and I don’t.

  6. Out Of Work Steve

    Walmart came along and buried mom and pop businesses. I remember everyone screaming about the damage Walmart was doing to locals, everywhere. Now, Dollar Generals are popping up on every piece of ground they can find … cheaper than Walmart. Around here, the fast food drive-throughs are lined up …. with working from home on one laptop to swivel chair over to the kids being home schooled on another computer, parents don’t have time to cook. Sitting in a drive-through line is like a vacation. – or call ahead if you’re really super short on time, or delivery when you’re swamped up to your eyeballs. It’s crazy. America use to be prosperous and there was integrity at the work place. I remember. Then we became afraid of terrorists, and now a bs virus. All to erase the chalk board of the American dream. Now, it’s turning to being afraid of not getting a stimulus check. I liked it all better when Detroit was Mo-Town (the Motor City) and CKLW played the hit. Good times
    Happy New Year …. hopefully.

    • Yep that was back when the worker was personnel and the young in those higher institutions were taught a little about honesty and truth, now they are simply another throw away resource and to be treated in the same disgusting manner and those higher institutions know nothing about truth or integrity, so they can’t teach it, I suppose all empires went through this on their way down, and we don’t just how far down is, but I’m sure we are going to find out.!!

      • “Yep that was back when the worker was personnel and the young in those higher institutions were taught a little about honesty and truth, now they are simply another throw away resource”

        That’s what I like about Trump.. he has one of the highest company retention rates in the country.. from what I’ve read his employees feel he is personally accessible to them if they have grievances. Companies like that are few and far between anymore..hes demanding and expects total loyalty. Back in the day.. an employee felt like the company was home. And the boss had their best interests at heart.

    • The problem isn’t the Walmart or the Dollar General or the dollar tree stores. What is killing themomand pop stores is the distribution of wealth.. corporate America abandoned the local economy in search of higher profit margins. Minimum wage in the seventies if ithadkept pace with the rise in economic increases would be somewhere around thirty dollars an hour..
      Since we outsourced our jobs industry and local economic stability.. as prices increased the need for stores that offered products at a greatly reduced rate.
      I know for a fact that the local dollar general here isnt taking in enough profit to pay the expenses.. if what another friend tells me is true.. the owner owns several stores around the area. He bought them NOT to show a profit but to show a loss.. mom and pop stores had to show a profit..
      Like I’ve said many times.. theres no blue sky forever..theres a ceiling.. Congress doesnt get it.. a budget where we spend ten times what we spend for our own wellbeing on someone elses.. the stimulus is a prime example. What was coming anyway was expedited by covid. Rather than support our country they tossed it everywhere but here.. next year.. the costs of covid will start showing up in the medical facilities budgets.. insurance companies will not want to loose money so those increases will skyrocket.. doctors rents will increase to cover the costs he will have to charge more.. we see it now your paying attention on the increased costs of essentials..

      • Not even to mention that forty plus Americans are facing evictions in the next couple of weeks.. and that many plus that have been using credit to stay afloat. . 600.00 won’t even pay one months rent..
        Considering the evictions..WHO.. owns the mortgages.. a great deal of banks sell mortgages to mortgage companies .. some of whom are supported and owned by .. other countries.. the perfect storm is coming.. the idiots in the beltway sure don’t get it..lol they are to busy counting their donors donations that they cant see it..
        Of course it’s just my opinion..and no one cares about my opinion but me..

  7. “McConnell blocks Democrats’ attempt to quickly approve $2,000 stimulus checks amid pressure on GOP to act”

    I wonder why he wasn’t standing firm when the bill signed sold the laborer down the tracks..sending billions everywhere but here in the USA.

    • two different bills. there is the regular govrnment funding bill which keeps it open for the fiscal year, ending 9/31 I think. that includes the regular foreign aid. thn there is the covid bill. trump can’t help but confuse and conflate the two. don’t make the same mistake.

      • “that includes the regular foreign aid. ”

        What I never understood is why we are so willing to send aid to other countries when we can’t take care of our own house…
        If you live in a house and the electrical is frayed and shorting out.. the plumbing is leaking and the floor boards are to the point where you will step through them.. why would you go over and fix the neighbors first..
        to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars than bitch because our people need the aid to survive…..
        Now imagine that this video is the USA and the global economic struggles…..

      • The meme is ‘fight it over there so we don’t have to fight it over here.’ there’s more to do around the world than break things and kill people. there’s a payback to preventing unrest in other countries, promoting fair democracy in other countries, helping people get clean drinking water and helping poor countries to build schools, hospitals and infrastructure. there’s payback to that.

        Rather than build a wall I would have preferred to spend the money on development in the refugees home country so they don’t have to or want to leave in the first place.

        The US isn’t an island, but the world is.

      • “there’s a payback to preventing unrest in other countries,”

        I agree with that.. but The question OG.. is who are the ones that are truly causing the Unrest many of these countries have been fighting since long before the time of christ…. take BLM and Antifa.. who was the one causing the ruckus and why is it only countries where there are natural resources that are coveted by those causing the ruckus there…. we of course won’t go after those people.. we let them cause the ruckus and the other point is when is it our right to march into someone elses house and tell them they aren’t living their life the right way..you aren’t performing sex the right way there buddy here let me show you how.. or why are you eating with chop sticks you need to use a fork and spoon…. that is why so many in other countries hate us.. yet everyone lets the instigators go about their activities of horror.. killing and maiming for peace is like Fuzking for chastity..

    • looking out of the box
      December 30, 2020 at 08:01

      “that includes the regular foreign aid. ”

      “What I never understood is why we are so willing to send aid to other countries when we can’t take care of our own house…”

      Good question. Charity should begin at home. The money this country blows on foreign aid these days is nothing more than “virtue signalling” as the lefties say.
      A heartfelt gift is one thing, but this type of foreign aid is nothing more than an attempt to influence their government (buy friends). I said it before; THEY WON’T STAY BOUGHT!
      Helping your neighbor is generally a good thing but what is called, foreign aid today, is a dis-service to our nation’s taxpayers and dis-honorable to the begging recipients. They hate us but will still take the money.
      Now do you understand??

  8. cant even fabricate a buy signal in gold. even with greedy king facisto mick moriarty pounding the table . honestly . zero intelligence . zero morals . give him a call george

  9. Empires rise and fall since we quit being a Republic a long time ago and became a Empire we are slated to follow the fail cycle.

  10. Phew.. MAMBM… the kids cleaning their turtle tank has some algae..
    Being a smart azz I said..you should show the kids how to make crude oil from that.. without missing a beat.. they said.. that’s a great idea..for a grandpa and grandchild project..

    • Dude take your meds. Whatever you are on, nobody understands your feckless vomit but you. George is decent enough to post your incessant blathering. STFU unless you have something decent to say. You seem to be extremely miserable. Maybe you need to get laid. Whatever it is, your posts are nauseating. Blessings ….. Maybe

      • Len daquino is probably an NSA webbot trying to keep up with and make sense of GU’s work. Obviously, there is still a lot of refinement to be done…

      • Lenny is SHORT the Market – of course he is acting like a miserable sot.

        – on top of that – like G-man hissith – he has been hating on Bitcoin all along.

        They be getting KILLED in this Market, as there is always a Losing side for each Winning side.

        No wonder they R grouchy and miserable.. I would be too – if my annual
        P&L Ledger looked anything the Shortz do.
        – and that is why

        – Non BTC por Vieux!

      • The truth will enlighten you vege. That means who gives a flying finger what you think .the smart already know and the veges won’t listen . Do what you think appropriate on guru advice . Disregard fools like me

      • Further I understand how difficult it is for some to grasp a superior form of intelligence. The ether zone : gold/USD negative divergence. Brace yourself

    • Well DH, that’s the first time you posted and didn’t sound drunk. Just because one doesn’t agree with your mouth feces, doesn’t mean they are in a vegetative state, but rather they are able to recognize a person off their meds and in need of shutting the fk up. Blessings DH.

  11. In case you are hiding in a cave from the bogeyman, most of the world has heard of Trump’s horrendous treatment of his employees….

    There are Casino employees still suing Trump for back pay:

    Trump lost employees’ retirement accounts:

    • What I base my opinion on is the high retention rate.. it’s way above the vast majority of corporate america where the employee is seen as disposable and replaceable.
      Quotes like this are what makes the man great..

      “When I worked for Donald, especially in the early days, you could just walk into his office. At least, I could. I spent time with him every single day when we did Trump Tower. Not so much after that project, although we did spend a lot of time together when I was doing the Plaza. When I started with Trump there were eight or nine people in his office. He used to answer the phone in the morning when no one was there. We walked to meetings together. There were no bodyguards. He was totally approachable and accessible. When he hired his long-time assistant, that all started to change. In time, she became his gatekeeper; later she became a vice president and had her own gatekeeper.

      Now he has an entourage. But in the beginning, Donald was a very rich but otherwise ordinary man.”

      What I tell the kids.. before you take a position find out why they need someone.. on average about 20 percent is what I give as normal turnover and you’ll be viewed as a valued member of the company. For those companies the employee is there for life he feels pride and valued.. 30 to 40 theres issuesbut still a good place at 50 plus theres some serious issues in management.. only take a job there if its absolutely necessary and be prepared to leap off it’s a sinking ship no matter what business they are doing. Your only a grey slab to them.
      then go down and have a dumb cup of coffee in the breakroom or the local hangout where employees congregate..listen to what they are saying between themselves.
      An employee under Donald Trump will more than likely be there twenty years from now no matter what position he has.
      In a bankruptcy there are fatalities..just my honest opinion.. I would have been proud working for the man.. and after seeing him excuse himself and call a housekeeper by name only set that opinion of him deeper..

      • Another story I have that has me respect the man..is years ago one of my hats was working in a cabinet shop.. one of the drivers had a custom order for office cabinets.. it was his first trip to the big city and he got lost. In his q ut est tofino his way he was robbed of all the fuel money.
        When he finally got his bearings an arrogant boastful man came to inspect the delivery himself before acceptance. The driver said he asked him if there was something bothering him.. and my friend said he told him about the robbery.. the guy pulled out his wallet anf6 gave him two grand to get the rig home..very few bosses could care a thing about their employees much less some strange truck driver..
        The driver got the money from the company and wired it back..

      • loob, please provide some links for your ‘Donald The Nice Employer’ cultish fiction series that you are serially posting everyday (do you have a life besides praising your cult leader? I know, it’s too scary to look outside of your Cave to find out!)

        Trump’s first year in office had the highest turnover rate in 100 years:

        Trump’s comments to his television show employees:

  12. George,

    Up until the year 2000, my wife and I co-owned a corporation that manufactured cabinet hardware. Just prior to that the “the Wonderful Slick Willy” Clinton and crew awarded China “most favored nation” status for trade. It became very clear to me, very quickly; China would soon eat my lunch. Soon the market became flooded with cabinet hardware selling retail for less than my cost to manufacture.

    Seeing the handwriting on the wall, we sold our manufacturing facility to a domestic competitor; before the walls fell in. That company went bankrupt within six months of buying us out.

    I maintained the right to sell certain products to a limited number of customers. I imported my products from Taiwan. The items that I imported were sold at a price that was 60% of my cost to manufacture, while allowing me a 20% profit above my purchase cost. That lasted for about 3 years, and even Taiwan could not compete with mainland China.

    When I made the decision to sell, I felt an obligation to my employees to make certain they were taken care of properly. The company we sold to, moved the entire operation to their central location some 600 miles away. Realizing this would put my employees in a bind, I called all of my business contacts and secured 3 interviews for every employee. All were successful in obtaining a job locally with pay equal to what they had been receiving. These people were not just employees, they were my extended family. I was raised to believe that you don’t walk on people to get to the top. You earn any advancement via your own efforts. May never get filthy rich, but I have no problem looking at the man in the mirror.

    Looking back, I am really glad that something or some force lead me to quit manufacturing when I did. I am farming again (not on a major scale), but am only responsible for my own success or failure. Outside a lot, and other than EPA records concerning farm chemicals; I don’t answer to anyone’s orders other than the lady of the house. Much more peaceful way of life. Guess I’ll farm till the money runs out or I get too old.

    • Lloyd – it is an honor to have a reader/subscriber who is such a forward-looking, honest, and ethical person.

      In your chores, could you consider giving talks at the local high school to civics classes? Your hands-on is invaluable and the twerps today just aren’t hearing the message from those who have “walked a mile in them shoes” (and subsequently have been run-over)?

      Blessings for being an excellent Being…

      • George,

        Thank you for your kind words. I try every day to be more like my father, which I dearly miss and hope to be more like. He like many other of the “Greatest Generation”, lived through the Great Depression. I used to marvel at his enjoyment of a meal when my wife and I would take my Dad and Mom out to eat. Every bite he took was enjoyed as if it were cooked by the finest chef in the world. Dad truly enjoyed every morsel to its’ utmost. I guess that comes from wondering as a kid in the South during the Depression, just where the next meal would come from. Now, he and his family never went hungry, but by no means was it a banquet at meal time.

        Dad always treated everyone the same. Did not matter rich or poor, or which race, etc. We are all just people. I hope in some small way I can live up to the lessons he taught me.

        Yes, I have considered giving talks to the schools. I know the local School Superintendent, and play golf with his son. In fact, I have actually taught some classes as a substitute. Given the assignment of teaching remedial classes. Had a student in math who just could not see the benefit of math in his life. Used an object lesson to show him why math and all education is important. Same kid later worked for my construction company, and did a good job.

        Knowledge, in my opinion, is to be shared. Only if people are enlightened, can they make good decisions about their respective lives. Troubles me that more of today’s generation are more concerned with “likes” or “followers”, than what is behind certain things in our world. Just do not understand not being curious about the what, why, when, and how of things.

        I wish you and Elaine a great new year, and hope it is better for all.


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