Housing Data: Onward and Upward

Just out from Case-Shiiller/CoreLogic/S&P:

YEAR-OVER-YEAR 
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.5% annual gain in November, up from 3.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.0%, up from 1.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.6% year-over-year gain, up from 2.2% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In November, Phoenix led the way with a 5.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 5.2% increase and Tampa with a 5.0% increase. Fifteen of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2019 versus the year ending October 2019.  

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1% before seasonal adjustment in November. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, 10-City and 20-City Composites all posted a 0.5% increase. In November, 13 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
“The U.S. housing market was stable in November,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With the month’s 3.5% increase in the national composite index, home prices are currently 59% above the trough reached in February 2012, and 15% above their pre-financial crisis peak. November’s results were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-city composite. “

Ure’s 2-bits worth?

Sure, since you asked (or you’re dull-witted and not keeping up with class…)

Note the price of a home in 2007 was around $180,000. inflation adjusted is $221,983 today.  And, since the real price of homes on the national average was a little below that (looks like around $213,000, or so) we’re pretty sure Housing hasn’t been a HUGE winner over the past 13-years.

On the other hand, you have to have a place to live, and you wouldn’t save a dime (more than likely) if you didn’t have a house payment, so it’s all good.

It’s just the “social conveyor belt” is really worn and needs a kick-start.

After all this data, Dow futures still saying +130 at the open, so enjoy…

32 thoughts on “Housing Data: Onward and Upward”

  1. I have 3 varied comments today: #1: I purchased a house in 1994 for $62,250. It is now worth over $327,000 per appraisal, and on some secret analysis mathematical sleight of hand, $450,000 per the bank. The MFCalculator says it is equivalent to a $107,382.61 house purchase today which is impossible to find in our housing market. As a matter of fact, when we sell, we could not buy back into this neighborhood. We will sell because the property taxes are headed North so fast and encouraged by the city council and the transformation of our city is so fast paced that the floodlights heading to the sky announce to the world that we are FOR SALE. Our city will turn into a city of RENTERS, not OWNERS.

    #2: I find it quite ironic that AVAST has been selling all user data!!! Everyone is a COW in the newly transforming Ameerica per Kissinger, “useless eaters.”!! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7936115/Popular-anti-virus-company-revealed-selling-web-history-porn-searches-location-users.html

    #3: The plot thickens to move people from the country to the city so they can become feudal serfs from times of yore, you don’t think that our Federal Government owning almost 28% of the land of Ameerica and 47% of the Western lands is by mistake do you?

    https://patch.com/new-hampshire/bedford-nh/aitken-how-high-density-craze-will-destroy-middle-class

    This is a GREAT article; it explains what is happening to our city. The push across the nation to remove Single-Family Housing, ANOTHER AGENDA!

    https://amgreatness.com/2020/01/19/density-ideology-will-destroy-america/

    • ” I find it quite ironic that AVAST has been selling all user data!”

      That sux! I used Avast for several years because it had lower overhead than any of the others (been using NOD for the past several, for the same reason…)

      “you don’t think that our Federal Government owning almost 28% of the land of America and 47% of the Western lands is by mistake do you? ”

      Nope, and I don’t think it’s “right,” but I DO think it will make it more easy for le (or el, la, les, das, etc.) Dictateur to centralize authority, once (s)he takes over…

      • “I find it quite ironic that AVAST has been selling all user data!”

        IKR…. I know isn’t that crazy Ray… I think it is more than just AVAST though to.. I use to use avast.. I use something totally different now though.. FB you know it is.. I get emails by the hundreds for things I commented on on fb.. and ad’s according to what I have looked up..

      • LOOB, I assume that EVERY piece of software I run (unless I wrote it myself, and those are now few, and far between), and EVERY website I visit, “phones home” at one time or another, and I assume they have an imbedded keylogger and pointer-mapper, and the ability to do a commandline telnet into an SQL client and a dump of every action the logger and mapper have made, as well as a topo map of every website visited by my computer. This has all been possible since the mid 90s, and if something is possible, somebody (maybe everybody), somewhere, will do it.

      • I use to have a program that did just that Ray.. it would have a map running in a corner of the screen.. and everyone that pinged the computer was shown..who they were where they were located and their ip address etc.. it was amazing..
        I think I had one of the very first windows programs then..

  2. No s**t about the house pricing shooting like a rocket into space. The place we bought, we got it well under the asking price because 1. No one else expressed interest in buying it for the asking price, and 2. I’m pretty sure we were the only buyers who were able to secure a loan at that time. I did a check on the supposed price worth now, 3 years after buying, and wow! Not sure how they came up with that inflated amount! Just crazy. Meanwhile, the outpaced income to outgoing bills means alot less money to utilize to maintenance and/or sprucing up.

    It is no wonder the masses are now all renter’s, especially in large cities. This is a fantastic way for the have vs. have not’s division to be clearly seen. It’s also, imo, the classic start to all out revolution, and we all know how it ended in in 1790. No more “elite” and a dictator in charge. Scary thought. Sure, “it’s different this time.”

    • To both you and Rent-for-Life – Abosolutely, YES! Crazy, stupid amounts of money are being spent on Small Town Texas properties that is forcing tax valuations up the wall. People from the oil fields of Midland are snapping up ranches and/or buying into new, “exclusive” developments in our area. The ranches are being tossing around like chips on a card table when they hardly used to move at all. Good friends that have been in our area all their lives are moving off after getting offers they can’t refuse and leaving our town to the people that want to make money off of our community – not be part of it – who look down their noses at the original residents of our little wide space in the road. The local school has sidled up to these people like tick birds to a buffalo dreaming of all the new money they can get off these new people and to Hell with our community’s history. That history started to be eradicated as fast as possible when the newbies came to town and is currently being re-written to begin no earlier than about 10 years ago. We are well down the road of being “gentrified” and money is the only thing that counts. The same thing has happened to Boerne,TX as I read when we were looking for a Bucky’s a few weeks ago. All the city “leaders” there care about is how to attract more people (I mean M-O-N-E-Y) to the town which is exactly what the megalomaniacs in our locally self-formed “Chamber of Commerce” is doing now. Never stand between Mellennials and their profits.

      Can you see why I’ve been praying for this financial crisis to finally, FINALLY get here? It would take these peoples’ ability to destroy our lives and community away and I don’t care what it does to my retirement portfolio because I’ve been prepping for the worst since the 90s.

      • Unfortunately Bill as the situation deepens..I think that there will be a larger Exodus from the major cities all with the mind set that they will be safer away from the big metropolitan area’s.

      • I’m sure that’s in the back of many of these peoples’ minds but there’s precious little to eat out here in the “stickery woods”. None of these moneyed people are putting livestock on their places and any wildlife here would be gone in one Winter (forget about hunting seasons). None of their thought patterns go that far down the time line – AND I’m afraid we’re too close to any of the major cities, let alone the local ones, to be safe from that exodus. One full gas tank will take us from here to San Antonio and back – probably even El Paso. God help us and pass the ammunition.

      • They are buying the land. Next, they will lobby the government to change the zoning laws so that houses can be built on the land. Huge markup between agricultural land and residential land. Then the shopping centers will come, and maybe jobs. Same old model but this time it’s in your back yard.

      • They’d better have a real plan in place to make money off the land if they change from Ag to residential or business. When they make that change in Texas the tax assessors go back 5 years and reassess the land value whereupon the owner then pays up on the new amount.

        Also, I keep telling people that, sooner rather than later, many of these people building houses out here are going to turn their water taps on and get nothing out of them. Too many people putting their “soda straws” down in our local aquifer will suck it dry. Quite a few have already had to drill new wells to service their homes and the water down there isn’t always sweet. All of them are using water like they do in town and there’s quite a few that have put pools in as well. When the water disappears in one good drought so do the land values. It takes a looooong time for that water table to come back up again – IF it ever does after doing that much damage to it.

      • ” I’m afraid we’re too close to any of the major cities, let alone the local ones, to be safe from that exodus”

        Bill, you should have an old dresser full of rag-grade clothes, an old car shell, and maybe a rotten wagon in storage. If (when) the SHTF, drag the car to your driveway and burn it, bust up the wagon and litter your yard with it and a couple of the dresser’s drawers — ‘might even toss a drawer through a window. I take it you’re in prickly pear country? If it looks like your place has already been ransacked, anyone headed your way will keep right on going unless you show yourself and give them a reason to investigate. That’s not the friendliest land through which to travel. Social dregs and desperate refugees are not going to waste time, especially in summer, trying to find food, water, or fuel, at a place that’s already been “picked over.”

      • If it’s a matter of contrasts we’re headed in that direction already. The high-class, moneyed people that have moved in across the street keep their houses pristine and raked while I wait for the Spring leaf cleanup. They’re so antagonistic to us “hicks in the sticks” it’s a wonder they moved out here at all but, as I said, it was to make money and that’s what they’ve been doing. I’ve thought about hanging an engine from a tree branch but I doubt the wife would let me go that far with it. Having neighbors that you can’t get along with is a cliché but in a SHTF scenario they’ll stand out like a sore thumb when it comes to advertising “Money and supplies located here”. They’re the type of well-off people that love to show it off. For me, it’s no one else’s business how much we have as long as the roof doesn’t leak and the house is comfortable and taken care of.

      • Ray’s idea is sound. I’ve seen variations on that theme actually used too nearby under circumstances I would rather not discuss.

        One of the more extreme ideas I’ve heard is to board up the the windows with plywood at least street-side, then spray paint simulated burn marks from the edges of the windows with black spray paint. I can’t decide whether that would repel or attract looters and squatters. I have one window clearly visible from the street. Maybe that one would be the window to apply a test to. I would need to black out that window anyway to stop light from being seen from the street. Maybe plywood with a discreetly camouflaged upside-down “t” gun port cut in it.

        Having a fence in front with an agricultural gate that can’t be climbed easily is another helpful strategy. Keep a roll of barb wire in stock for wrapping and patching holes in the defenses, regardless of what sort of fencing you have. The top tube on my front gate will be wrapped in barbwire in a lock-down on day one.

  3. I had an old friend that’s a contractor text me.
    In his area.. ( of Texas I think)
    They are building housing for illegal refugees where they will live expenses free.. while a few blocks away there are citizens struggling. That area has already been notified that it will be a sharia zone and Christian’s wont be allowed there after the new home are built.

  4. IMO you can’t depend on the Fed’s inflation calculator to maintain a benchmark. Between daily repos, monthly spigot-goosing, and Qualitative Easing* ad infinitum, real inflation has to be above 15% per annum since the housing collapse.

    * (I renamed it because what it really does is lessen, or “ease” our quality of life in a hidden, and most-underhanded way. Feel free to use… ;-)

    • This is why people with money are putting it into “things” ASAP. After a point having a lot of money gets to beg the question – Are you working your money or is it working you? The race is on to preserve what assets people have and the higher up the food chain you go the more intense the realization is of how fast the money is depreciating.

      • Everyone has the same needs — food, shelter, transportation, clothes, etc., and generally speaking, we all buy from the same markets. For some people (e.g., Warren Buffet), it is possible to have too much money. The problem becomes “what to do with it”.

      • Don’t worry Andy! I’m sure there’s someone out there for ya.

        If I were to win the lottery and wound up with a few hundred million, knowing what we all know here on George’s site concerning the future of the US$, I’d be looking for a lot of land, too. You could crash one or more of the precious metals’ markets with money like that and a closet full of cash could be rendered worthless in a heartbeat by the issuing bank. Having enough to live comfortably and get the kids off to a good start is really all most people need. Thank God we own the ranch lock, stock and “possibles pile”. I don’t know how people paying on a ranch (a real one) do it unless they’re living like many of the Asians do that have come over or have good mineral resources on the place. They’ve got to have another job supporting it and them to get by. We just have to keep the tax man happy but that’s getting more and more onerous each year. Just dropped a stack of hunskies off at the tax office today. There was actually fresh blood on the front steps – I sh*t you not. Don’t know the story behind it, though.

  5. Yes, a friend from Mexico, who married a Mexican American, and became an American (back when that was the cool, lawful, and highly desirable thing to do), said that she had a relative that their house had appreciated in value, so they sold it, it was a million peso home. Then, the Peso got devalued, and they couldn’t use that money to buy any house in that area. That’s a great example of how money isn’t money and the value can be stripped fast.

    LOOB; that’s the DIRTY little secret. ALL the people, not just refugees, but illegals, AND life-long generational welfare recipients get FREE HOUSES, while down the street, the working and middle classes are struggling paying their way and when they can’t anymore, then end up in RENTALS. Because we have a PURCHASED and GLOBALIST OWNED PRESS, who PRIDE themselves on keeping the American Citizen (that ancient relic) in the DARK and IGNORANT. The American citizen is being REPLACED by a Globalist MIXED-UP SALAD of Humanity that doesn’t have to work to get the FREEBIES. Europe is Gone, and so is Ameerica.

    The hinterlands are a good place to find refuge, as someone else already commented, you have to have an AGRICULTURAL exemption either via: Cattle, Hay, Trees (George), Endangered Wildlife Habitat, Ostriches, etc., not just for food, but for reduction in property taxes. One Acre Homesteads will be taxed like a house in the city; it’ll take em a while to get your property taxes raised, but they will do it steadily and mercilessly. At 65, parts of the property taxes can be frozen. Also, very important, you can DEFER property taxes starting at 65 and then, at death, have your beneficiaries sell your house so that the state can recoup the property taxes, OR your life insurance policy can reimburse the deferred property taxes. Right now, in the main cities, Texas’ property taxes EXCEED State Income Tax paid in other states for equitable income, AND for most families, it is NOT tax deductible!

    • In America the’ land of the free’…seems to take on a new meaning…free to all the late ‘in-comers’……..and all comments here seem to have oNE central core problem…local governments…..tax’s and freebies…localized…wtf…ps….should be a lot easier to control local tax’s and give aways….imo

      • “at 65 and then, at death, have your beneficiaries sell your house so that the state can recoup the property taxes, OR your life insurance policy”

        Unfortunately.RFL. unless your a multi millionaire you wont leave anything for anyone to claim. After your final expenses are done it’s all gone.
        We pay over fifty percent of our gross Income just for my wife’s health insurance.. I totally expect them to double it.. she has a few years before medicare..and they know that the odds are you’ll use your insurance more the older you get..then if your lucky enough to make it to a nursing facility you can expect to see a quarter million a year for housing per person..life insurance ..around here after you go everyone sends out a consultation bill..
        You like myself will leave with a couple of boxes of assorted crap a few photos and the memories of what you stood for..
        Only If your SR then the state and family fight over it..
        Seen it way to many times. As one doctor told a friend of mines father.. I’ve always wanted to own a farm.. we will schedule the surgery.
        The new friend of mine.. he lost everything..

      • We’re looking at selling our home to our children (who might let us “live there” for a while. No reason to throw assets in front of the healthcare beast

      • Right on George…I knew a guy that was in the upper eight diggit realm.. he was one of the few the kept his…I asked him one time how he did that.. his response was.. find someone you trust and make the switch at least ten years before you expect to make the downfall…
        the sad part.. Is in all the years that I worked..( from 1968 on)I have seen some of the most dispicable things and actions done by families that fought over what few peanuts there was ( one time we went in as a collective of all the floor workers and told the boss that they had better boot the family out or we were going to report the whole mess. IT WAS THAT BAD..).. you wouldn’t believe it.. my god.. they fight over that.. those are the people that reared you.. my parents didn’t have much my mother was .. hmmm.. FRUGAL.. LOL. thats a good word.. LOL.. but even with them.. my siblings went hog nuts wild over the family photo albums..and anything that they thought was of value.. the only thing I got and they couldn’t find was my great granpa’s rolex my grandfalthers engineers lamp.. and his masonic order of the templar knights sword.. which I plan to put in a display case..his hat and cape..etc.. well those were played with as a kid and are long gone..but there are no photo’s of any of them.. no photo albums.. etc.. and after a couple of years my sister called to ask.. what ever happened to moms money.. sis.. you have to be kidding.. she was in a nursing facility for how long at almost twelve grand a month..where do you think it went.. we did her laundry and took her to the beauty salon because the laundry was an extra three hundred a month.. personal items etc.. we bought those for her.. so she could have some quality of end life..
        family.. its a tough bunch.. low and dispicable the higher up you go .. luckily our parents taught us respect for the elders and to love one another..

      • LOL the only reason I got to keep those three items. was that she couldn’t have them in the home.. and my mom asked me to keep them safe.. the watch.. his thirty year gold watch.. ( I can’t find it I think my wife tossed it out thinking it was broken and a cheap fake LOL) and the sword.. you cant have knives or guns in the home.. even if it is a simbolic sword.. we keep it in storage because we always have kids running around..my kids have already said that when I am gone they all want it.. the engineers lamp.. OH I have a berry basket made by william Clark of the lewis and clark expedition..I keep magazines in it..almost forgot about that one LOL.. when my mom was burning all the memerobilia and pictures and papers of him in a fire I saved that one.. ( he wasn’t liked very well till this present generation LOL )

      • LOOB; it did NOT happen that way for our Dad and our Mother. They were simple folk with a plan, AND we took care of them until each of them passed. They did not live their end days in a nursing home. They left their humble estates intact.

        I understand EVERYONE’s situation is different.

        But, we can agree that we ALL leave the earth in the same suit we came in with, albeit, a little larger and cured by life’s experiences.

        For people without insurance but need surgery: https://kfor.com/2013/07/08/okc-hospital-posting-surgery-prices-online/

        https://surgerycenterok.com/pricing/

        George; that’s a good idea, however, do it before you become incapacitated, disabled, or dependent on your children because IF your children have to get a mortgage to buy your house AND the mortgage company finds out that you are still living in the house that the kids are trying to buy, they will refuse to do the sale BECAUSE they say that YOU might change your mind at some point in the future and then the mortgage company would be on the hook and in the middle of the situation. They will also send someone by to check to make sure that you and your wife are NOT living in the house. The sooner you do it the better AND you can rent it back – win/win for both families.

      • Unfortunately RFL… I wasn’t able to take my parents in.. my father died suddenly after having heart surgery.. and my mother was left behind until she had a stroke.. I was still working seventeen hours a day and no one around to take care of her.. other wise we would have..because we couldn’t then today we are taking care of my inlaws though along with others that would be left homeless by giving them a safe place to live.. unfortunately I can only offer one other person a place to call home..
        very few people today especially in this busy world of ours has time or the patience to watch they’re parents.. I won’t let my kids do that when it is my time.. because I don’t think it would be fair to them to change their life for my needs..

        in all my years though I can only say I have seen a few dedicated to their parents. the vast majority of them are not that way.. the world has gotten more ME oriented.. with the desire to have it now rather than take time and get it later.. we see that not only from family but from business as well..
        very few businesses offer benefit packages to the average wage earner.. the vast majority of those are only offered to full time executives.. I don’t know about there but here the trend is to have part time or portional time employees with a skeloton full time crew and the vast majority of parts are imported for assembly. The old timers are all dieing off that kept the economy growing..
        I visited with a lady that works for one of the old companies that was a coveted place to work.. she said they all miss the old man.. the kids took over and the whole thing changed.. they are still good to the employees but that is evaporating a little bit every year..
        the same thing with a place that I worked.. that took in the gifts from corporations wanting coveted shelf space.. when I worked there.. all of those were kept in a storage until the xmas party.. then given out by a drawing.. well that has long ended as well.. and they got away from offering health care insurance..
        its the trend for today..

    • Dam.. I can’t find it.. but once upon a time I had read some articles that explained the actions of china in building the ghost cities and factories..
      http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_7a_YpeO62IU/S0oXZknMXzI/AAAAAAAAACQ/dRF0htFbq6E/s400/SIP0518343-fema-trailer-photo.jpg
      the reason they built them for the exact same reason why the USA bought billions of dollars worth of trailers.. in the event of a cataclysmic event or war.. the people could be relocated to these cities.. they would be able to go right back to work in rebuilding the country.. they also built huge bunkers so that the vast majority of the population would have a safe place to go when the puppetteers decide to go blast the planet apart.. coveting other countries mineral and agricultural wealth at will.. they also hole regular drills for the people.. to keep the chaos down..
      We don’t do either of those things and the trailers.. rarely given out.. and only to a select few..there are no plans to protect the majority of the population.. its all defensive strategy not offensive strategy to tackle such an event.. but then.. those wanting to see the chaos in this country don’t even live here.. I think they just have control of those important enough to do their bidding..

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