Just out from Case-Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic:
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in
November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.0% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.”
Of course, much of this has hinged on the Fed’s 25% plus increase in the Monetary base. Still, nothing speaks louder than prices:
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. In November, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities
reported increases after seasonal adjustments.
“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s. Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).
As a result, average home prices continue sailing higher nationally:
All this will likely not have as much bearing on the Fed meeting today as the M1 and M2 data expected this afternoon. But all that when the decision on rates and taper come tomorrow afternoon.