“Running of the Bears” Comes True, Housing Awaits

We sat out the manic Monday market decline – and furious rally that followed Monday – for a number of reasons:  Statistical and Medical, mainly. Lot of anti-aging notes at the bottom of this morning’s column (see ATR below).

We’ll do the medical in the Around the Ranch section.  But, as to the statistical?  The charts and our long-range targets are popping “bingo’s” right and left.

Front Burner:  Fed Meeting

With a possible next wave up in markets today, all it should take would be an ideal Fed Decision not to move rates now or in March to send the markets into the recovery room.  Until next week.

The statement tomorrow and J Powell soft-shoe press conference after will result in millions of words – all of which will be meaningless.  So just chill.  Wait for it at 2 PM tomorrow.

Focus on housing data out shortly.

Hand me the formaldehyde.

Why?  Aren’t you paying attention here?

Bear Postmortem

At its worst Monday, the Dow was down more than a thousand points.  Yet, with virtually no solid news basis the market rallied strongly, fulfilling our outlook set out in Saturday’s Peoplenomics report.   As a result, here’s my “after-action report and victory for the cautious lap” as a single chart:

Yet, before it showed up, we traded as low as the “red arrow” in the upper right.  The ascending red arrow (between the two greens) lays out the possibility now of a strong rally for a week and so we would actually be surprised to see a collapse at month-end.  Still, it’s possible.  Follow along and you’ll see the problem:

The initial “set up” part of “the problem” is clear in our OpenBrain.xls Elliott-guessing spreadsheet:  Monday’s action fulfilled the downside expected in fractals (I think, not expert of that method) but definitely it met our outlook based on the Nov. 8 All-time High.

Yes, we had a momentary move higher in Wave II, but that was as much a currency manipulation and didn’t occur in other Aggregates because of different incept dates for the technique’s starting point.

As you can see, the decline in the Aggregate dropped well into the Wave III target range.  At its worst, it was into the orange box, but closed at the target-meeting 37,945 level.

I expect we will have a small decline at the open today, but then the odds seem to favor a major rally which could gain even a thousand points without breaking any Elliott wave rules that we’re aware of.

You can see the potential in this view – now that we collapsed and are picking things up off the floor today.  This is NOT TRADING ADVICE any more than you would trade on tea leaves.  Remember, the future changes every time you look at the “voting” thing change based on Observer Effects!

Bottom line to all this?

What’s Next?

The answer, sadly, is we will likely (says the OpenBrain model) drop to new lows – a thousand or more lower – than the intraday bear run of Monday.  But, before we go there, suggests the Elliott view, the “Running of the Bears” scenario from Saturday’s PN seems to be in play.

We don’t know how fast “normalcy” can return.  But we ought to have some “smoking good news” pop up damn near any minute.  (We had a nickel bet on a strong Housing Report this morning which we will post as it crosses.)

The OTHER very big future delimiters to keep an eye on will be a) the weather in Ukraine and b) keywords signaling the bulls to feast on bear meat.  So, let’s look at those:

If you click over to Weather Underground and take a look at the long-range outlooks for Kiev/Kyiv what you’ll see is there would be no weather penalty for Russia holding up their invasion plans for a week, or so.

While the ground is cold enough to begin crusting up a bit, the ideal would be for a solid cold-snap and we don’t see it getting much colder for a while.  Still, highs in the upper 20’s come the middle of next week would be preferrable to Thursday through Sunday’s highs above freezing. No mud, stud.

“Whistle Words”

Our second effort is to play “Spot the Keyword” – the kind that are “whistle words” to real market dogs.  We like – for this sequence of news cues – the word de-escalation.

Which is why (after a decline to set things up early today) talk of “peace” [via de-escalation] screams from headlines like Ukrainian envoy, UN Secretary General address de-escalation around Kiev – TASS and comes as Ukrainian Family in Boston Hoping for De-Escalation of Conflict With Russia – NBC Boston.  While the word pops in Macron to share his vision of Ukrainian de-escalation with Putin.

That two out of three uses cited trace back to TASS infers to us this is not serious suing for peace.  Rather, it’s likely the endgame before Russia rolls west into Ukraine.  Laqst PR move. The keyword should prove useful to watch.

I’ve always been fascinated by the role of Russia’s Industrialists at the time of the October (1917) Revolution.  With a different future outcome, nascent Russian Industrialism might have been Global Capitalism V. 1.0.  Sadly, though, the gap between worker wages in the West and Russian industrial workers was insufficient. The West was a competitor.  So, rather than see a history where the labor wage-spread drove internationalism, the Russian answer was to seize the means of production which led to the Cold War and beyond.  But I digress.

We shall see how things line out going into Friday and adjust our thinking accordingly when the weather forecasts and market action resolve into a more solidified future view ahead of the weekend.

For now, stories like S&P 500 Tumbles in Worst-Ever Start Through 16 Days (yahoo.com) and CNBC’s Jim Cramer Advises Calm as Market Craters (mediaite.com) scream the functional equivalent of “Buy the Freaking Dips” (*BFD) which is where our strong [smaller] Wave 4 should arise from.

For those hard of hearing: Ukraine urges calm, saying Russian invasion not imminent – Washington Times.  4-up after a retrace early today?

Wave 5’s the one that could be a bitch.  Next week, or when it comes along.  Once de-escalation fizzles.

Stay tuned.  Ure’s fish and chips at Ivar’s bet with one of his daughters is not dead in the water.  Just pausing to reload a fresh flock of sheep for the wolves of Wall Street.

News Samplers Delight

Making a Splash off Taiwan:  US combat jet crashes in South China Sea exercise, 7 hurt (sfgate.com).  Accident? Or….

Wuhan a Lab Accident? Yeah, kinda, sorta, maybe as  Emails reveal suspected COVID leaked from a Wuhan lab — then censored themselves (nypost.com).

Wave good-bye?  Colorado COVID-19 hospitalizations dropping, though still high (denverpost.com).

Our next-door narco state:  Crime and anti-crime policies in Mexico in 2022: A bleak outlook (brookings.edu) And even that might be overly optimistic.

Pension Fun?  Dead man taken to post office to collect pension (fox5ny.com).

Speaking of “Where’s my check?”  Elites ‘across the free world’ are now ‘in the pay of China’ | Daily Telegraph.  News-Hunter’s dee-light, huh?

ATR:  Great BP- Who’s “Bibbius?”

In our ATR *(Around The Ranch) notes, we have two rather interesting items.

The first was an absolutely outstanding blood pressure report at my annual check-up Monday.

Went from 164/88 in April of 2021 all the way down to 140/72 at the Monday reading.  No change of weight but the improvement in BP was good enough that I was invited for a return engagement in four months.  Do I sense the possibility of getting off hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ)?  A mild diuretic. Perhaps so.

How did I do it?  Well, I have (no, this is NOT MEDICAL ADVICE!) been taking pretty good doses of Vitamin D3 (with K) and a couple of grams of Vitamin C per day.

Not only was my PCP impressed with the BP but she also said “You look different…”  Uh-huh.  That’s the anti-aging protocol at work.  (It’s in a couple of Peoplenomics articles in the Master Index for subscribers.)

There are two general tracks I’m on.  The first is based on the Sept. 2019 article in Nature (First hint that body’s ‘biological age’ can be reversed (nature.com)).

In that diet, human growth hormone, a diabetic drug (metformin) and DHEA were used to (apparently) reverse aging. Not having enough dough for HGH shots and my doc being unwilling to roll with an off-label use of metformin, I cobbled up my own OTC analog.

It consists of Berberines (see Berberine vs Metformin for Prediabetes and Mild Diabetes | Good Hormone Health).

To bump up the HGH levels – which usually spike around an hour or two into nightly sleep) I went with 5-HTP (refer to EFFECT OF 5-HYDROXYTRYPTOPHAN (5-HTP) ON GROWTH HORMONE AND ACTH RELEASE IN MAN | The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism | Oxford Academic (oup.com)) and OTC DHEA.

I take the supplements at night and use 10-15 mg (sublingual) melatonin which also rolls up the deep sleep HGH levels.

Toss in additional Folate and maybe a drop or three of methylene blue (Anti-Aging Potentials of Methylene Blue for Human Skin Longevity – PubMed (nih.gov)) making sure to use USP not just any-old.

For a read-along, try The Ultimate Guide to Methylene Blue: Remarkable Hope for Depression, COVID, AIDS & other Viruses, Alzheimer’s, Autism, Cancer, Heart Disease, … Targeting Mitochondrial Dysfunction).

So that’s the basic anti-aging notion.

The BP reduction seems attributable to the high does Vitamin D3 plus Vitamin C.  Several books I’ve read on these which you may find of interest:

One good starting book on D3 was The Miraculous Cure For and Prevention of All Diseases What Doctors Never Learned.  Another? The Miraculous Results of Extremely High Doses of Vitamin D3: A Year-Long Experiment with Huge Doses of the Sunshine Hormone from 25,000 to 50,000 to 100,000 IU/Day

We do not encourage everyone to tinker, as we do around here, with their food and supplement intake.

However, one of my dear friends who is a skeptic insists that vitamins and supplements are a scam.  Yet, taking the deep dive into successfully growing things out here on a tree farm, the importance of trace elements (like boron, selenium, copper, and many more including proper water pH) has really been amplified.

If you really think that America’s food is all you need, then you skipped the biology class discussions of soil depletion and you are likely wholly unaware of The soil crisis: the need to treat as a global health problem and the pivotal role of microbes in prophylaxis and therapy – Timmis – 2021 – Microbial Biotechnology – Wiley Online Library

The Big Pharma people began their attacks on D3 when it was shown to really work on arthritis.  The efficacy of D3 – if you can’t get a half-hour daily of full-body direct sunlight – is indisputable.  But who said keeping people ultra-healthy was a national agenda?

You MUST realize if everyone took our path, Social Security would go bankrupt even sooner?  (And there is no “trust fund” since both co-conspiring political parties torched sound money and accountancy, but that’s another topic…)

Life is – and a brain/heart/soul level – a chance to do some real “spirit farming” and if you don’t want to push the envelope, we’re not selling anything.

Who’s Bibbius?

Off with on short woo-woo adventure.  Something from the Dream Realms.

There I was, somewhere between 1 AM and 4 AM today and I was looking over a marina of some sorts and it was (near as I could figure) in the southern regions of Ukraine.

Seems local people were hiding messages and plans for their resistance in waterproof plastic bags and putting them just under the water at low tide on local beaches. Under rocks. Where the messages would be safe as “security people” wandered through.

Same “security forces” were also involved in the local marina, too.  Dropping by at unexpected times and basically “shaking down” the marina operator.  Trying to get cash, tips about opposition types and so forth.

Odd part of this was when I returned (to the waking state (3:58 AM) there was a very clear (72-point font) in my head that made no sense:


I have no idea what that was about.  But I’ve been on Google Earth since 5 AM today, looking for sat imagery of this marina somewhere in that part of the world.  I’ll let you know if I find it.  May be in Russia or another one of those
“seas” out that way.  But, per the dream, someone with less than a foot and a half of tidal run.

Gotta say, when my old noggin starts with these Imax-like dreams, no details are left out. Even down to the part where the observer of all this overnight action hid in the restroom of the marina during a search.  Details like the plumbing dumping directly into the water under the marina in that area.  No particular EPA type regs in play, apparently.

Anyone can have adventures in Dreams like this, as I outlined in my book Psychocartography: mapping the human dream. Getting there is just a matter of turning down your “internal noise” that everyone has in their head.

Thing is, we all have access to this universal subconscious mind level.  But we get so worked up (over the inanest bullshit) that we can’t “relax and enjoy the show” which is there for the sampling almost every night.  You – body and soul – are like a quite sensitive radio receiver.  But the media bubble bath most people immerse themselves in squelches any meaningful “program reception.”  Damn shame that.

That process may also help reduce blood pressure.

More in part 2 when Housing data crosses…

Write when you get rich,


36 thoughts on ““Running of the Bears” Comes True, Housing Awaits”

    • I appreciate your sarcasm.
      BTC was supposed to frac to a crash, but I don’t see where it did, and my equities are worth a bit more than they were yesterday at this time. Hardly a Black Monday (again).

  1. “as Emails reveal suspected COVID leaked from a Wuhan lab — then censored themselves (nypost.com).”

    In the background, I keep hearing “Omicron forever” to the tune of “solidarity forever.” Dr. Evil and his “gain of function” buddies have created a virus far outside the bounds of natural science. It is programmed to keep moving the goal posts and be a war we can never win.

    On a much happier note, they just discovered a new devious little variant of Omicron in Ireland. “Lepricon”

  2. The Babbius Monument is a circular monopteros on a podium dating to the early 1st century A.D. It consisted of eight Corinthian columns arranged in a circle supporting an epistyle and a conical roof. (Greece)

  3. Excellent post by West Texas Horse Sense yesterday! It is rare that I agree with everything anyone posts but in this case I’m in 100% agreement with everything West Texas said. Let’s risk a nuclear war to protect the Uke border from those nasty Russians while the USA is invaded by millions of illegals on our Southern border. Representative government in the USA is a joke. Who really rules us?

    • Thank you Lou. I appreciate the kind words. Where is the sanity AND common sense any more? Evil rules.

  4. Richters HERB and Veggietable Catalogue just arrived in the coots mailbox yesterday – ahhhhhhhhoooommmmmmmmmmmm. The arrival of “zen” moments is always greatly anticipated and this years catalogue is a Beute.

    Order was placed this AM – largest ever for the Bandicoots’. (a celebration wit other peoples monay)
    Plants; 2 plug packs Begamot Blue stocking, Cohosh Blue, Java Tea, Jasmine Night, Lions Tail=African marijane, Lobelia, Maralroot, Mayapple, Mint mojito cubano, Sushni, Wasabi.
    Bulbs; Saffron, french Shallot.
    Seeds; french Lavender, french Margold, Monksfruit, red Pansy. Poppy Breadseed (poisonous), ROCKROSE, true gold Corn, cake eater Lettuce (oakleaf),Oregon sugar snap Peas, cherrybelle Radish, mongolian Sunflowers, crimson sweet Watermelon.
    See Rockrose and latest related Scientific Research – powerful antibacterial, antifungal and anti viral.recent studies have shown it is a powerful Biofilm Buster!bacteria that evades conventional antibiotics by forming protective biofilms can be Stopped by Rockrose extracts that breakup these biofilms and prevent bacteria from adhering to tissues. Also show recently to Prevent HIV infection in same way. rockrose has become a stable for treatment of Lyme disease (another US Mil. bio-lab escapee) and is effective for Flu and Colds. Who knu ? the coot does now, and will be growing and harvesting this year. Just like I be HARVESTING mass profits Friday, reloaded Monday..”reloaded” at end of day and bagging & tagging Today. Even bot the dip BTC on MRI buy signal yesterday. Like taking a “hoppy’ from baby.

    EZMONAY – my new “Shorty”, jus dont Mrs Coot..
    Multiple gardens spread all over property – Vegetables, Flowers, Medicinal – Kids and Animals Beware (idiots). 3 active Bee hives keep most of the curious at bay and away – 2 jack russels (1 rough coat =hotmess, and 1 broken coat = crazy bitch) do the rest of the work keeping the curious at arms length. Extra big order was/is celebration of taking mass amounts of other Peoples money the past 3 days in the Market. Someones feeling serious painial again this AM.
    A lil anal ez with that Buy order, Sparticus? bwahahahahahahahah – just like my corp Sales career – ate a lot of Scheisse, but the rewards are Awesome and worth it.

  5. “maybe a drop or three of methylene blue (Anti-Aging Potentials of Methylene Blue for Human Skin Longevity – PubMed (nih.gov)) making sure to use USP not just any-old.”

    It’s also the antidote for sodium or potassium cyanide poisoning and the basis of the tox-purge for carbon monoxide poisoning (I’ve kept a bottle of it laying around for just these possible uses, since I was about 12 years old…)

  6. Just a thought – Yesterday may not have been the Fractal Chasm that was predicted.., but, was it the fissure that starts the opening of that chasm ?

    • Yep, could be.
      There’s always room to “reinterpret” when a prediction fails. True believers pivot to salve their egos. Millerites become Seventh Day Adventists. And the beat goes on….

  7. Your feline oracle was an original script kiddie at the temple of Neptune? There are so many choices in your multi-dimensional crossword challenge. How about Google translate –
    “babbius” in Ukrainian is “?i?????”.

      • Ugh, the system doesn’t recognize the non-English symbols.
        6 backwards N 6 6 backwards N y c
        uhoh: 6 6 6 NYC gets backwards (not good). lol

  8. Comrades,

    Is grapefruit the real forbidden fruit that has emerged from the fog of recent antiquity? “Gastro Obscura” rehashed one of their 2020 issues today. It quoted 1989 research showing that consuming grapefruit with alcohol magnified increases in blood pressure. The article went on further to link grapefruit with accelerating the effects of certain drugs which could cascade into organ failures. I don’t know if vaccines are approved with a food interaction warning.


    • My understanding is that grapefruit blocks the normal speed of metabolizing certain drugs in the liver, which means that a drug stays in the system longer and at higher levels than would happen without the grapefruit. So the danger is an accidental overdose of the drugs if grapefruit is eaten. I do not believe this is part of the clot-shot bio-terrain, but I could be wrong.

  9. Forgot to post yesterday (HA! So did LOOB…)

    In what may be another indicator of a coming war in Europe, all Full Time Missionaries for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints are being reassigned out of Ukraine.

  10. BREAKING BIG: Wisconsin Appeals Court Sides with Waukesha Judge in Banning Absentee Ballot Boxes — Wisconsin Election Commission Abruptly Cancels Emergency Meeting

    Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Michael Bohren issued a summary judgment decision earlier this month on January 13th banning ballot drop boxes in the state. Judge Bohren also ruled ballot harvesting was illegal in the state.


    Wisconsin Boasts 3000% Voter Turnout

    MADISON, WI—In what progressives are calling a “huge win” for democracy, the state of Wisconsin is reporting that over 9 billion people have voted in Wisconsin, which is 3000% of its registered voters.


    Smile, and be thankful the Babylon Bee isn’t teaching yer kids, arithmetic…

  11. Senior US envoy for Iran leaves role negotiating nuclear talks with Tehran

    Richard Nephew, the deputy special envoy for Iran, left his post as part of the U.S. team negotiating Iran’s return to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). A State Department official confirmed to Reuters on Monday that Nephew was no longer part of the U.S.’s negotiating team, but he will remain a State Department employee.


    Allies urged to use US report to help refute Beijing’s South China Sea claims

    The US government said on Monday that its recent report dismissing China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea was meant, in part, to help more countries challenge Beijing on this front, and that Washington would not accept any of the claims.
    The US State Department’s report, the latest in a series titled “Limits in the Seas”, includes an examination of Beijing’s response to the 2016 ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague, which included a declaration that the determination was “null and void”. The previous edition was published in 2014.


    This is from the South China Morning Post. I posted it because of its title. Exactly WHO are the ALLIES!??

    From Health Care to Hollywood: How the Chinese Regime Attempts to Control America

    We are fast approaching the two-month anniversary of the John Cena apology. For the uninitiated, in an interview for “Fast and Furious 9,” a movie he was starring in, the professional wrestler and actor made the “mistake” of calling Taiwan a country. Ostensibly, Cena was apologizing to the people of China. In reality, though, he was apologizing to the Chinese regime, which essentially controls Hollywood.

    A damning Fox News report outlines the many ways in which the United States has become dependent on China. Take medical supplies, for example. According to the report, China now “produces 97 percent of U.S. antibiotics” and “80 percent of active pharmaceutical ingredients used in American drugs.” In other words, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has “absolute control” over “potentially life-saving medicine.”

    Both MSNBC and NBC are owned by NBC Universal, which appears to have close ties to Xinhua, a propaganda outlet run by the CCP. Other outlets such as ABC and ESPN also appear to have links to the Chinese regime. In 2019, ESPN staff were directly told to avoid discussing Chinese politics at all costs. The warnings came as protests in Hong Kong started to turn violent.


  12. SCOTUS Case: $74 Billion Ponzi Scheme, WaPo Cover-Up, US Senator Bribes

    The Washington Post Editors and over sixty U.S. Senators are not sleeping well tonight. In a surprise move, the United States Supreme Court has agreed to hear a dispute regarding the use of a Washington, D.C. Anti-SLAPP statute to cover-up a massive government-protected, decade-long, criminal enterprise. Over the past decade, major U.S. Banks and municipal agencies in Puerto Rico have been running a multi-billion-dollar municipal bond Ponzi Scheme protected by political appointees in the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission and overseen by powerful U.S. Senators who have been funding their campaigns from this stolen money.


      • Media Bias Fact Check rating: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no sourcing to credible information, a complete lack of transparency, and/or is fake news.

        MBFC rates AP, Reuters, and AFP as virtually completely neutral and unbiased. This proves their unworthiness for citation of =>anything<=

        I have no intention of ever waking up in your quarters.

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