We sat out the manic Monday market decline – and furious rally that followed Monday – for a number of reasons: Statistical and Medical, mainly. Lot of anti-aging notes at the bottom of this morning’s column (see ATR below).
We’ll do the medical in the Around the Ranch section. But, as to the statistical? The charts and our long-range targets are popping “bingo’s” right and left.
Front Burner: Fed Meeting
With a possible next wave up in markets today, all it should take would be an ideal Fed Decision not to move rates now or in March to send the markets into the recovery room. Until next week.
The statement tomorrow and J Powell soft-shoe press conference after will result in millions of words – all of which will be meaningless. So just chill. Wait for it at 2 PM tomorrow.
Focus on housing data out shortly.
Hand me the formaldehyde.
Why? Aren’t you paying attention here?
At its worst Monday, the Dow was down more than a thousand points. Yet, with virtually no solid news basis the market rallied strongly, fulfilling our outlook set out in Saturday’s Peoplenomics report. As a result, here’s my “after-action report and victory for the cautious lap” as a single chart:
Yet, before it showed up, we traded as low as the “red arrow” in the upper right. The ascending red arrow (between the two greens) lays out the possibility now of a strong rally for a week and so we would actually be surprised to see a collapse at month-end. Still, it’s possible. Follow along and you’ll see the problem:
The initial “set up” part of “the problem” is clear in our OpenBrain.xls Elliott-guessing spreadsheet: Monday’s action fulfilled the downside expected in fractals (I think, not expert of that method) but definitely it met our outlook based on the Nov. 8 All-time High.
Yes, we had a momentary move higher in Wave II, but that was as much a currency manipulation and didn’t occur in other Aggregates because of different incept dates for the technique’s starting point.
As you can see, the decline in the Aggregate dropped well into the Wave III target range. At its worst, it was into the orange box, but closed at the target-meeting 37,945 level.
I expect we will have a small decline at the open today, but then the odds seem to favor a major rally which could gain even a thousand points without breaking any Elliott wave rules that we’re aware of.
You can see the potential in this view – now that we collapsed and are picking things up off the floor today. This is NOT TRADING ADVICE any more than you would trade on tea leaves. Remember, the future changes every time you look at the “voting” thing change based on Observer Effects!”
Bottom line to all this?
The answer, sadly, is we will likely (says the OpenBrain model) drop to new lows – a thousand or more lower – than the intraday bear run of Monday. But, before we go there, suggests the Elliott view, the “Running of the Bears” scenario from Saturday’s PN seems to be in play.
We don’t know how fast “normalcy” can return. But we ought to have some “smoking good news” pop up damn near any minute. (We had a nickel bet on a strong Housing Report this morning which we will post as it crosses.)
The OTHER very big future delimiters to keep an eye on will be a) the weather in Ukraine and b) keywords signaling the bulls to feast on bear meat. So, let’s look at those:
If you click over to Weather Underground and take a look at the long-range outlooks for Kiev/Kyiv what you’ll see is there would be no weather penalty for Russia holding up their invasion plans for a week, or so.
While the ground is cold enough to begin crusting up a bit, the ideal would be for a solid cold-snap and we don’t see it getting much colder for a while. Still, highs in the upper 20’s come the middle of next week would be preferrable to Thursday through Sunday’s highs above freezing. No mud, stud.
Our second effort is to play “Spot the Keyword” – the kind that are “whistle words” to real market dogs. We like – for this sequence of news cues – the word de-escalation.
Which is why (after a decline to set things up early today) talk of “peace” [via de-escalation] screams from headlines like Ukrainian envoy, UN Secretary General address de-escalation around Kiev – TASS and comes as Ukrainian Family in Boston Hoping for De-Escalation of Conflict With Russia – NBC Boston. While the word pops in Macron to share his vision of Ukrainian de-escalation with Putin.
That two out of three uses cited trace back to TASS infers to us this is not serious suing for peace. Rather, it’s likely the endgame before Russia rolls west into Ukraine. Laqst PR move. The keyword should prove useful to watch.
I’ve always been fascinated by the role of Russia’s Industrialists at the time of the October (1917) Revolution. With a different future outcome, nascent Russian Industrialism might have been Global Capitalism V. 1.0. Sadly, though, the gap between worker wages in the West and Russian industrial workers was insufficient. The West was a competitor. So, rather than see a history where the labor wage-spread drove internationalism, the Russian answer was to seize the means of production which led to the Cold War and beyond. But I digress.
We shall see how things line out going into Friday and adjust our thinking accordingly when the weather forecasts and market action resolve into a more solidified future view ahead of the weekend.
For now, stories like CNBC’s Jim Cramer Advises Calm as Market Craters (mediaite.com) scream the functional equivalent of “Buy the Freaking Dips” (*BFD) which is where our strong [smaller] Wave 4 should arise from.and
For those hard of hearing: Ukraine urges calm, saying Russian invasion not imminent – Washington Times. 4-up after a retrace early today?
Wave 5’s the one that could be a bitch. Next week, or when it comes along. Once de-escalation fizzles.
Stay tuned. Ure’s fish and chips at Ivar’s bet with one of his daughters is not dead in the water. Just pausing to reload a fresh flock of sheep for the wolves of Wall Street.
News Samplers Delight
Making a Splash off Taiwan:. Accident? Or….
Wuhan a Lab Accident? Yeah, kinda, sorta, maybe as Emails reveal suspected COVID leaked from a Wuhan lab — then censored themselves (nypost.com).
Our next-door narco state: Crime and anti-crime policies in Mexico in 2022: A bleak outlook (brookings.edu) And even that might be overly optimistic.
Speaking of “Where’s my check?”. News-Hunter’s dee-light, huh?
ATR: Great BP- Who’s “Bibbius?”
In our ATR *(Around The Ranch) notes, we have two rather interesting items.
The first was an absolutely outstanding blood pressure report at my annual check-up Monday.
Went from 164/88 in April of 2021 all the way down to 140/72 at the Monday reading. No change of weight but the improvement in BP was good enough that I was invited for a return engagement in four months. Do I sense the possibility of getting off hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ)? A mild diuretic. Perhaps so.
How did I do it? Well, I have (no, this is NOT MEDICAL ADVICE!) been taking pretty good doses of Vitamin D3 (with K) and a couple of grams of Vitamin C per day.
Not only was my PCP impressed with the BP but she also said “You look different…” Uh-huh. That’s the anti-aging protocol at work. (It’s in a couple of Peoplenomics articles in the Master Index for subscribers.)
There are two general tracks I’m on. The first is based on the Sept. 2019 article in Nature (First hint that body’s ‘biological age’ can be reversed (nature.com)).
In that diet, human growth hormone, a diabetic drug (metformin) and DHEA were used to (apparently) reverse aging. Not having enough dough for HGH shots and my doc being unwilling to roll with an off-label use of metformin, I cobbled up my own OTC analog.
It consists of Berberines (see).
To bump up the HGH levels – which usually spike around an hour or two into nightly sleep) I went with 5-HTP (refer to EFFECT OF 5-HYDROXYTRYPTOPHAN (5-HTP) ON GROWTH HORMONE AND ACTH RELEASE IN MAN | The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism | Oxford Academic (oup.com)) and OTC DHEA.
I take the supplements at night and use 10-15 mg (sublingual) melatonin which also rolls up the deep sleep HGH levels.
Toss in additional Folate and maybe a drop or three of methylene blue (Anti-Aging Potentials of Methylene Blue for Human Skin Longevity – PubMed (nih.gov)) making sure to use USP not just any-old.
For a read-along, try The Ultimate Guide to Methylene Blue: Remarkable Hope for Depression, COVID, AIDS & other Viruses, Alzheimer’s, Autism, Cancer, Heart Disease, … Targeting Mitochondrial Dysfunction).
So that’s the basic anti-aging notion.
The BP reduction seems attributable to the high does Vitamin D3 plus Vitamin C. Several books I’ve read on these which you may find of interest:
One good starting book on D3 was The Miraculous Cure For and Prevention of All Diseases What Doctors Never Learned. Another? The Miraculous Results of Extremely High Doses of Vitamin D3: A Year-Long Experiment with Huge Doses of the Sunshine Hormone from 25,000 to 50,000 to 100,000 IU/Day
We do not encourage everyone to tinker, as we do around here, with their food and supplement intake.
However, one of my dear friends who is a skeptic insists that vitamins and supplements are a scam. Yet, taking the deep dive into successfully growing things out here on a tree farm, the importance of trace elements (like boron, selenium, copper, and many more including proper water pH) has really been amplified.
If you really think that America’s food is all you need, then you skipped the biology class discussions of soil depletion and you are likely wholly unaware of
The Big Pharma people began their attacks on D3 when it was shown to really work on arthritis. The efficacy of D3 – if you can’t get a half-hour daily of full-body direct sunlight – is indisputable. But who said keeping people ultra-healthy was a national agenda?
You MUST realize if everyone took our path, Social Security would go bankrupt even sooner? (And there is no “trust fund” since both co-conspiring political parties torched sound money and accountancy, but that’s another topic…)
Life is – and a brain/heart/soul level – a chance to do some real “spirit farming” and if you don’t want to push the envelope, we’re not selling anything.
Off with on short woo-woo adventure. Something from the Dream Realms.
There I was, somewhere between 1 AM and 4 AM today and I was looking over a marina of some sorts and it was (near as I could figure) in the southern regions of Ukraine.
Seems local people were hiding messages and plans for their resistance in waterproof plastic bags and putting them just under the water at low tide on local beaches. Under rocks. Where the messages would be safe as “security people” wandered through.
Same “security forces” were also involved in the local marina, too. Dropping by at unexpected times and basically “shaking down” the marina operator. Trying to get cash, tips about opposition types and so forth.
Odd part of this was when I returned (to the waking state (3:58 AM) there was a very clear (72-point font) in my head that made no sense:
I have no idea what that was about. But I’ve been on Google Earth since 5 AM today, looking for sat imagery of this marina somewhere in that part of the world. I’ll let you know if I find it. May be in Russia or another one of those
“seas” out that way. But, per the dream, someone with less than a foot and a half of tidal run.
Gotta say, when my old noggin starts with these Imax-like dreams, no details are left out. Even down to the part where the observer of all this overnight action hid in the restroom of the marina during a search. Details like the plumbing dumping directly into the water under the marina in that area. No particular EPA type regs in play, apparently.
Anyone can have adventures in Dreams like this, as I outlined in my book Psychocartography: mapping the human dream. Getting there is just a matter of turning down your “internal noise” that everyone has in their head.
Thing is, we all have access to this universal subconscious mind level. But we get so worked up (over the inanest bullshit) that we can’t “relax and enjoy the show” which is there for the sampling almost every night. You – body and soul – are like a quite sensitive radio receiver. But the media bubble bath most people immerse themselves in squelches any meaningful “program reception.” Damn shame that.
That process may also help reduce blood pressure.
More in part 2 when Housing data crosses…
Write when you get rich,