Housing Data: Fed Inflation Arrives?

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Just out is the monthly Case Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic (and whoever else) Housing report:

“YEAR-OVER-YEAR 
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.7% annual gain in August, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.2% year-over-year gain, up from 4.1% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in August. Phoenix led the way with a 9.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with an 8.5% increase and San Diego with a 7.6% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending August 2020 versus the year ending July 2020.  

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.1% before seasonal adjustment in August. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, while the 10-City and 20City Composites both posted increases of 0.5%. In August, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
“Housing prices were strong in August,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index gained 5.7% relative to its level a year ago, well ahead of July’s 4.8% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in August. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have August data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in August than they had done in the 12 months ended in July.”

To help visualize the return of personal assets to housing:

Our usual reminders:

This year, M1 is up more than 35% – so phunny-munny is in play.

Second, the prices paid data does not show commissions – so your real life won’t quite make these lofty levels.

But, after the data Dow futures were back down to almost flat…

Good luck trading this gobbler!

George@Ure.net

15 thoughts on “Housing Data: Fed Inflation Arrives?”

  1. I want mag wheels and tinted windows with that load of wallop .. freaking nutjob . see yah woopy doo

  2. ohh .. explain please from guru perspective the record number of bond defaults happening ? give us some of that mumbo jumbo flation old dog talk . thanks

  4. Speaking of housing, I found a cream-puff commercial building in a small town within an hour of a big town. Approved for 5 apartments w/commercial space on main level. It needs to be put back together but is at a good price. I may buy.

    When I look at the pricing between city, suburb and small town, small town is under priced.

    People like small towns. Small towns still have homemade parades and stuff. Small towns feel manageable even though most have crack and meth like any other place. Not to forget the occasional spice head running down Main.

    I think small towns close to midsize college towns is where it’s at.

  5. My guess is they will dump some more water on the table.. just before the election.. make it look good.. or if the democrats get their way they will stop the money from hitting the table until after the election.. then dump a ton of it.. ( if there is a change in polarity with the house and senate.. democrats take over.. then they will really dump.. if the republicans then they will hold back a little..) either way.. they have to do some dumping if they want to push the situation out a bit further.. if not the correction could come sooner than later.. time will tell.. I am scared of the outcome.. it is not good.. none of it.. and I know its coming.. kind of like in the movies when they show a bullet headed towards someone in slow motion.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPfG4OdGEyI

  6. “This year, M1 is up more than 35% – so phunny-munny is in play.”

    Who is going to hang these inbreds?
    BLM, these should be your targets!!

  8. Oh Deep Thinkers

    Either way this election goes will be difficult.

    I hear conservatives/Republicans talk about their ammo and weapons being protective if Trump is re-elected and there are riots. (How did that turn out in our large cities this summer?)

    I read about liberals/Democrats talk about how they will “take to the streets” and protest/riot if Trump is re-elected. (And Democrats are buying guns…this could go very bad for those underestimating the other side. I saw a Biden flag along side a POW flag in my SE Kansas town.)

    This kind of talk is not patriotic, but it is American ala Original Tea Party in 1773. But this is not 1773, when the worst that was destroyed was some afternoon beverages. These riots are decimating businesses (Ferguson, St. Louis, etc.), community access to services/goods (Chicago) and even people’s lives (Portland/California). The psychological toll that this (on top of Covid) for not only adults, but children does not bode well for future voters, business people and future generations.

    Referring back to the ACES Project that was started in the 1970’s for longitudinal tracking of adverse events of childhood and future holistic health metrics, I am very concerned about the future generations of children who already have the “House” [and Senate] holding all the cards. Resilience is not being taught to children when the adults can’t keep their shit together. (Yeah, that’s a clinical term…LOL). When one has a negative outlook, it puts a damper on initiative, imagination and creativity.

    I watched the series Utopia on Prime last weekend. I liked one thing that the protagonist asked of all his evil minions: “What did you do to deserve your place on in the world today?” While the individual asking was consummate evil, we can always repurpose/recycle refuse for good. Viktor Frankl is a prime example of doing just that. He took his experience as a Holocaust survivor and developed logotherapy (literally “healing through meaning”).

    T.

    1. Mental Health Outlook: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771763?utm_source=silverchair&utm_campaign=jama_network&utm_content=covid_weekly_highlights&utm_medium=email

    2. Covid-19, Mental Health and Children:
    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/hope-resilience/202004/covid-19-and-children-s-mental-health

    3. Resilience and Children:
    https://developingchild.harvard.edu/science/key-concepts/resilience/

    4. Viktor Frankl wiki:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Frankl

    • “Tamarah
      October 27, 2020 at 11:55
      Oh Deep Thinkers
      Either way this election goes will be difficult.”

      Oh Tamarah.. I am so with you on this.. either way the country is split in two.. its scary to see this coming.. and then when the new weimer depression hits.. dam.. scary thought there..

    • “I hear conservatives/Republicans talk about their ammo and weapons being protective”

      This is BS. The people doing the talking live in the ‘burbs, and no matter who’s eventually elected, Trump will have no reason or motivation, post-election, to not play the Insurrection Act card and shut all the rioting down before it ever reaches them. 95% of those “people” would also wet themselves once they realized the rioters were shooting back. I detest blusterers — always have, always will. If you have a job to do, shut your piehole and do it. If you’re just fantasying, take yerass to LiveJournal and stay out of the grown-up conversations…

      “I read about liberals/Democrats talk about how they will “take to the streets” and protest/riot if Trump is re-elected. (And Democrats are buying guns…)”

      There will probably be a few of ’em shot too, but more-likely by authorities than Repub civvies.

      When a prospect becomes a cadet, the police instructors teach him/her how to shoot a gun and how to hit a target. Then they teach them when or “how not” to shoot. AFAIK NO civilian trainer teaches the latter, so if there’s folks out in the streets with firearms but no practical experience, somebody’s gonna get scared, anxious, or pissed, and light the fuse.

      I refer (again) to the Tulsa Riots: A Black boy was accused of raping a White girl. Da kops locked him up. A bunch of Southern White Democrats decided them wheels o’ justus was turnin’ too slow, so they collected as a mob to do a jail delivery and lynch the kid. Black folks living in the residential areas of the Greenwood District, also known as “Black Wall Street,” heard about the mob an’ a bunch of them perambulated over to the jail, to protect the kid (and the cops.) A-long shouting match ensued.

      Then somebody fired a gun…

      You should be far enough away from both Tulsa and Wichita that your area would see no spillover, and I don’t believe Joplin is an issue, even with MSSU, because there aren’t enough kollege kidz and hare-brains there to fill a protest quorum.

      I suggest a comfy chair, a bag of Amish popcorn, and a supply of your beverage of choice…

  9. the chinese (thai)to english translator is not perfect, that isn’t kansas talk. if you really are in se kansas, the lead(Pb) in the freshwater mussels, fish and groundwater should disturb you. that was mined at the turn of the century to support the bloodiest war in history.
    nobody supports either candidate with anywhere near the conviction THAT war generated.

  10. story spinning starting already . the ebbs and flows of capital . commies and patriots will tell you its always high tide ..I wonder how much commercial paper caterpillar and boeing are going to lite up after their disasters.?some of the best non fiction ever in their reports. pullitzer prizes?

  11. Every economic site in USSA has resident psyops/shrink disrupters. Hey George where is Gary lambert. Should be time for some time monk stuff. Remember them?

  12. wheres that FED inflation George ? whos on first whats on secondwho is on 3rd . no he is on one .. ban short selling I reckon .. give everybody red white and blue outfits. free cake all day from elites

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