Dow Futures were up 250-earlier. So what if CV-19 casea are growing? Hospitalizations up? Few showing up for rallies? Police being “defunded”? Icons falling? Who cares? Making Up Money is the “New Sheriff” in finance.
Our Guess? Last-gasp of a failing global economic system. Torpedoed, in large measure, when “Slippery Dick” Nixon took the U.S. off the Gold Standard back in 1971.
When you can’t deliver physical – go notional – and that’s what Modern Monetary Theory is all about. More – and deeper – in our Peoplenomics report tomorrow titled “MMT: Marxist Monetary Theory.” Where you’ll learn more than you wanted…
The problem started where? A republican president! Nixon was a crook, but he was at least honest-enough (in 1971) to recognize that America could never really afford to give specie (gold/silver) to those who might claim it under the convertibility premise of (then gold-backed) U.S. Dollars.
From that terrible decision, the fuse – lighting the final burnout of Capitalism – was lit. Tomorrow in our Peoplenomics report, we’ll track the spread of The Big Lie of Modern Monetary Theory lies. Emphasis on lies. Even neoclassicists can see it.
If you’re not getting rich, it’s likely because you have a seat at the Crooked Poker Table and don’t understand that the Fed is the “chief crooked player” and they keep feeding money into the game which plays (through you and other stooge players) right into the hands of the One Percent, down at the other end of the table.
Which is why – despite 9-million cases of CV-19, no particular on-shoring of American jobs, and pending anti-trust actions against some of the largest of the FAANG stocks…(oh, and let’s not leave out regulation of social media, here)… That “real” background doesn’t matter when the Fed is orchestrating dump trucks of money going into the Poker Game of Finance.
There. You should feel better now, right?
Lockdowns, Round Two: Pending
Ah, life in a bio-accident zone, huh? When we last ran out our forecast of CV-19 numbers ahead, we came up with the following for Labor Day (September 7):
- Global Cases: 30,684,486
- Global Deaths: 990,747
- US Cases: 9,539,277
- US Deaths: 276,755
Thing is, when we read headlines like “WHO warns of ‘accelerating‘ pandemic as Brazil reaches 50,000 deaths,” words like “accelerating” catch our eye.
Time to rerun this old data and look for “acceleration”:
Global Cases: 36,552,818 (+5,868,332)
Global Deaths: 1,081,968 (+91,221)
US Cases: 9,169,117 (+370,160)
US Deaths: 279,708 (+2,953)
We don’t make any representations about our outlooks except based on current data from the WHO it’s likely to be in the ball park.
How We Figure It
If you want to run a double-check on my work, have at it: The data is there for anyone to use. I pull the underlying numbers from the WHO Daily Summaries (linked to on this page).
Specifically, you take the Cases and the Deaths from the most recent WHO report. Then compare with with five-day earlier numbers.
From this you calculate a “Five-day growth rate” – which this morning is cases going up 1.099085288 times in five-days. Deaths are going up 1.057802812 times in five days.
From the Johns Hopkins site here, you pull down recoveries as of this morning.
Before you break out the bubbly, though, remember that the change in cases will lead the change in deaths by 7-14 days because people don’t die right on the spot. Takes time to show up in statistics…
I look at two “mortality rates.” If you’re trying to “save the economy” and get people out and spending (and working) again, then you’d cite 4.686%. Unfortunately, that’s a dishonest figure. Because it’s basically a “deaths as a percent of cases” number.
The honest number is to consider only known outcomes. Which means only the ratio of Recovered to Dead ratio.
By this, the death toll is 9.927% which makes it a Spanish Flu level contender, even now.
We’ve been saying since about <March> that when we are in Wave II, it is time to be setting in preps again for the Second Wave which we reckon will arrive shortly. While the cases in South America in general – Brazil in particular – are screaming higher, there’s a temptation to have some “American pride” that things “…won’t be so bad here…”
Yet international travel continues. And so do the headlines like:
- California governor Newsom is pushing face covering in a big way.
- Florida’s surgeon general advises everyone to wear masks.
- And as we’d expect, “As Coronavirus Cases Rise in Arizona, New Mask Rules Spark a Fight.”
Bio Accident or Bat Market? Still Open
Like bat soup?
We continue to keep an open mind to the notion that we are experiencing a “bio (weapon) lab accidental release” impact in all this.
Sure, if you want to run immediately into the political sphere, and claim the question is all about “anti-Asia hate” you can. Though, with bodies piling up, we don’t give a rip about ethnicity. Only the body count.
Regardless, there are multiple groups, such as the Network Contagion Research Institute claim to have detected anti-Asian hate efforts underscoring the “bioweapon meme” on 4Chan and other social media sites. Unfortunately, the hate label has quelled intellectual inquiry as there’s less attention being paid to non-hate assessments.
Origin questions are still unanswered. So more questions need to be asked.
Forbes had a great article just in the past week by Dr. Mark Kortepeter (“Did Covid-19 Come From A Lab? Was It Deliberate Bioterrorism? A Biodefense Expert Explores The Clues”). In it was this excellent summary:
“Scientists have attempted to develop objective methods to determine whether an outbreak was deliberately spread by bioterrorism. My colleagues and I tested a scoring system developed by a couple other scientists against four outbreaks definitely caused by bioterrorism and two natural outbreaks. Among those that were known bioterrorism events, we scored only the 2001 anthrax letters as “highly likely” to be caused by bioterrorism.
The bottom line is that, just like the challenge of predicting how many will die from Covid-19, scoring systems for bioterrorism are imperfect. It is one thing to suspect an outbreak was caused deliberately, it is much harder to prove it was. There lies the rub.”
Still, people are asking questions. This past week, in India, “PIL in SC seeking India to take China to ICJ for $600 billion compensation for using COVID-19 as bioweapon: Dismissed.” So, the case hasn’t gone anywhere.
China Relations – A Complex Calculus
Whether CV-19 sprang from the Wuhan lab, or from the market? Doesn’t matter.
The premise laid out in A.G. Kimbrough’s novella “After the Virus Apocalypse” is as plausible as any media report. (A mixture of both was his supposition. Infected (dead) lab bats being “back-doored” to the food market.)
Our point? There’s a larger story in play, here: China and how the rest of the world deals with its incredible rising power. Will it expand, unchallenged and unchecked?
RT ( Russia Today) [a possible partisan] is closely following the pending death of the China Trade deal. Outfits like Forbes were essentially calling it D.O.A. three weeks ago. Today, RT rolls with “‘It’s fully intact’: Trump hits back at WH adviser who claimed US-China trade deal is ‘over’ due to Beijing’s Covid-19 ‘cover-up’ .”
Perhaps the presidential daily brief skipped over Global Trade Set To Shrink 18.5 Percent In Q2: WTO? We keep reading how China is “under-buying” U.S. goods…
Significantly, we think, the recently-escalating tensions (brutal hand-to-hand combat) between India and China along their hotly-contested border could come to matter. As reported Sunday “China’s Latest Tussle With India Could Lead to War.”
In the conventional view of U.S. – China relations, the focus is on direct conflict. Specifically over critical U.S. supply centers like South Korea and Taiwan. Could the U.S. may be eyeing an “Alternative Conflict Scenario?” One that would draw-down and distract China’s military, while keeping Beijing’s focus on something other than the U.S.?
The world is a chess board at these levels. Sometimes you sacrifice a mid-level player to reach checkmate. (Ignore the end of the game results in no winners, lol.) Is Trumps move today “Trump moves to restrict work visas, citing pandemic” somehow a plug-in module? The NY Times calls it as The Visas and the Fury.
We also worry about India’s western front. The rekindling of hostilities there over the Line of Control (LOC) are due from an historical cycles perspective. China has influence in Pakistan.
For now, reports the L.A. Times today “As virus surges, Pakistan says there’s no choice but to open.” However, we’re eyeing the LOC becvause a familiar rhyme from history is that national leaderships will oftentimes use wars as a “national distraction” when other problems come to the fore. If Pakistan’s economy begins to implode due to lockdowns, war and blame could become popular propaganda to get past medicine and into the trenches.
There’s no shortage of “things to go wrong.”
Trend Check, Anyone?
Take the money and…Wirecard CEO arrested in the case of the missing billions.
Will travel make a big resurgence? Hotel stocks: Bull and bear cases for buying into the travel rebound.
Pandemic Oops: 9 hand sanitizer brands may be toxic, FDA warns.
Off to the shop and a bit of manual labor. So I can sit still long enough to finish tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report. Have a splendid Tuesday.
And I’m pretty-sure I had thre “earthquake tireds” last night…so we shall see…In the Valley Between Eclipses, now.
Write when you get rich (or the world regains sanity). Though with Seattle planning to retake the CHAZ, maybe there’s hope to turn back thge Marxist uprising. I mean democrat mayors never lie, right?