Differential Diagnosis time as light returns to ‘Mercia.
Yes, time for that ever-popular feature around here we call “Let’s Play Doctor!”
“Alright. I give. What set George off on this track?”
With a house guest showing up, I was glancing at some of the books on the “guest Kindle” and I happened to spy two great ones: The first: How Doctors Think while the other is How To Think Like a Doctor.
So I wanna play doctor this morning.
“This has WHAT to do with markets, exactly?
Well think about how a differential diagnosis works, per said books and Wikipedia:
“More generally, a differential diagnostic procedure is a systematic diagnostic method used to identify the presence of a disease entity where multiple alternatives are possible. This method is essentially a process of elimination or at least a process of obtaining information that shrinks the “probabilities” of candidate conditions to negligible levels, by using evidence such as symptoms, patient history, and medical knowledge to adjust epistemic confidences in the mind of the diagnostician (or, for computerized or computer-assisted diagnosis, the software of the system).
Differential diagnosis can be regarded as implementing aspects of the hypothetico-deductive method, in the sense that the potential presence of candidate diseases or conditions can be viewed as hypotheses that physicians further determine as being true or false.
Remember what I have told you before about “learning” (if you want to be a learning machine, like I fancy myself)?
I use this thing I call the Substitution Method of Learning. The concept/idea is that because of how humans are built/or some would say semi-evolved, we tend to think in regular patterns. We “structure knowledge” that way.
So when I want to understand product evolution, or how computers are progressing, I simply drag out the applicable template for knowledge around the “evolve” concept and plug it in. In the case of computer evolution – and where things are going – I find Darwin’s Evolution of Species to be quite good.
Evolution is not our task this morning, however. Our job is pure and simple: “Get rich with as little effort as possible.”
With this in mind, let’s retool the Doctor-think into Market-think:
“More generally, a differential investment procedure is a systematic diagnostic method used to identify the presence of a trading opportunities where multiple alternatives are possible. This method is essentially a process of elimination or at least a process of obtaining information that shrinks the “probabilities” of candidate trades to negligible levels, by using evidence such as historical market data, fundamental analysis, and analyticals such as chart and price channels to adjust epistemic confidences in the mind of the diagnostic trader (or, for computerized or computer-assisted trading, the software and method parameters of the system).
Differential investment can be regarded as implementing aspects of the hypothetico-deductive method, in the sense that the potential presence of candidate trades can be viewed as hypotheses that diagnostic traders further determine as being true or false.
See how slick this works out?
Here, let me print you up an AMA card (that’d be the American Money Association, around here). Next, put on your scrubs because I’m taking you with me on my morning rounds.
First off, in order to avoid malpractice claims, here are two stories NOT TO CONFUSE:
They are talking about different pairs of people, but I had to do a double-take to make sure, myself as there was a lot of overlap.
We find the fact that Brussels Bomber Najim Laachraoui Worked at European Parliament: Source to be interesting symptomology. Seems there two keywords missing from the minds and frontal cortex of most people in Eurabia, formerly Europe: 1) Background and 2) Checks.
This keyword deficiency disease is spreading wildly. Why it already seems to have already infected many officials in the Obama administration.
And speaking of which, over here in the Trauma Unit, we see how loving and friendly the people of Chicago are, enjoying as they do, some of the toughest gun laws in the country. Here, let’s pull the curtain back and have a look, shall we? …. 2 killed, 9 wounded in city shootings. Oops.
There is some good health news, in that “Tesla’s Model 3 orders are through the roof. Here’s what that means for the planet.” Take a deep breath and enjoy it, while you can.
Up the hall, here, in the Abuse Department, we see how Dennis Hastert accused of sexual abuse by at least 4, sources say.” This department is usually fuller, but a lot of former Bill patients have been released.
On the next floor up, is our Money Transfusions Department, China’s FX reserves post surprise rise in March on more stable yuan.
Now here’s another important ward: The Hemophiliac Department. What we have in here are a number of hemorrhages due to the Panama Leaks. For example The Latest: Austrian bank CEO resigns over offshore leaks.
Here’s another interesting case. (Hand me the patient chart, wouldja?): My, this is a serious hemorrhage: Helicopter Money Not On The Table, Says ECB Economist.
The important thing: When dealing with a patient who is clearly delusional, remember that the patient will usually say exactly the opposite of what is true. So the way to interpret this patient’s condition is that which is denied is likely true. Expect the helicopters to warm up for flights over Eurabia and that should send gold up and be good for the dollar.
And, over here…keep up, please, I need to get rounds done quickly this morning…We have the Money Resonance Imaging Department. One patient reports Central banks are reducing gold purchases but another says Germany Stops Selling Gold, Eurozone Sales Fall to Zero. Then, what about Russia and China buying tons of gold?
The only way to get the answer is to look at the patient’s chart. See the updating chart at the top of this morning’s report for the latest, but when I checked earlier, the temperature of gold was up 15 degrees…..oops…dollars.
What’s really going on, and what have you learned from doing Rounds together this morning?
Allow me to summarize:
1. The world did not end overnight. (There may be time for that later today, remember our 137-146 day murder cycle will be along in the next week, or so, so look for trauma coverage to keep people riled up to begin shortly.)
2. The Dow futures were down 87 when I looked earlier, so most of that 112 point gain of Wednesday is going Charmin today.
3. Since our Peoplenomics Oscillator warned us something like this would likely happen we are still waiting for patient indications as to how the (market) snake will turn at what we described earlier this week as a four-choices intersection in the road.
And that’s it.
Please deposit your wit in the “sharps” container on the way out.