Honestly, there’s not a hell of a lot to write about this week. We know the market is going down – and we know the Fed has arranged for a market low to happen around the time of the election.
“You what job! How could you POSSIBLY know that?”
Let’s look at some data, shall we? Specifically the Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stocks report which is conveniently published every Thursday.
The most-recent version of the report is anything but interesting. As we read in the second data series (weekly):
All looks within reasonable expectations, right?
But this is basis the most-recent reporting period, the one ending October 9th. That’s not where you find the “fingerprints.”
Instead, you need to look at the very first series of numbers – the monthly and consider them:
You see that? A sizeable blip at the end of August.
Which in and of itself would not be so damn interesting, except that our Peoplenomics Aggregate Index peaked one month later.
While there’s a lot more to this story for Peoplenomics.com subscribers this Wednesday, the key thing for you to know is that the market hit its all-time high (as an Aggregate which is how we deftly side-step the tape-painting of the Dow and such) on October 3 at 25,006.29.
The key word to be thinking about is hysteresis. Which is means what?
:…the phenomenon in which the value of a physical property lags behind changes in the effect causing it…”
End of August Money Supply on the M1 (cash) side of things jumps…and almost exactly 30-days later our Aggregate peaks.
Is this proof of fingerprints of the Fed? Or coincidence?
We are beginning to think link. But we’re in the land of “best-fit” and chi-squares now, so we’ll leave that to people who subscribe. People who get ahead over time are not “lazy” – they just work-out furiously with the “muscle between the ears” while “average” people are stabbing phones and holding down the couch.
This chasing-down market correlations is just as much fun as going to the beach with a metal detector and finding coins. Excel, it’s played with a trading platform and Excel – as well as being a year-round event. Pays better, too, lol.
Speaking of Fedstuff: CFNAI
Chicago Fed National Activity Report is just out. Once again, the End of the World (EotW) has failed to appear….
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.17 in September from +0.27 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.21 in September from +0.27 in August.
Yes it decreased, but it’s still a positive reading as you can see here:
Market seems to take it in stride with the Dow futures up over a hundred…
While the market is set to rally this morning, it’s of little surprise since a modest rally continuing on for another week, or so, then declining (perhaps rather hard) into Election Day, wouldn’t be a bad bead on future developments.
Madness on Bordering
Look for the whining media apologists to ramp up to a near-roar this coming week as about 5,000 military-aged men, not willing to stand up[ against evil in their own countries are coming here.
We’ve been very consist in our labeling this as a “soft invasion” – and as usual, the loony-Left who don’t understand what borders are, preach that all comers should be accommodated. We not only disagree, but so does the law.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t an illegal alien someone in the country without permission a felony? Technically no. The first catch is a civil violation, but the second does become a felony. Which apologists for non-borders point out is a minor felony…
Oh yes, how very inconvenient U.S. Code › Title 8 › Chapter 12 › Subchapter II › Part VIII › § 1325, must be to loonies. Especially when a president is sworn to uphold the what?
Section 1324 gets us to wondering if those supporting illegal immigration are also on the hook because penalties are prescribed for anyone who…
“…(iv) encourages or induces an alien to come to, enter, or reside in the United States, knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that such coming to, entry, or residence is or will be in violation of law; or
(v)(I) engages in any conspiracy to commit any of the preceding acts, or
(II) aids or abets the commission of any of the preceding acts,
shall be punished as provided in subparagraph (B).
(B) A person who violates subparagraph (A) shall, for each alien in respect to whom such a violation occurs—
(i) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i) or (v)(I) or in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(ii), (iii), or (iv) in which the offense was done for the purpose of commercial advantage or private financial gain, be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 10 years, or both;
(ii) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(ii), (iii), (iv), or (v)(II), be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both;
(iii) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), or (v) during and in relation to which the person causes serious bodily injury (as defined in section 1365 of title 18) to, or places in jeopardy the life of, any person, be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both; and
(iv) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), or (v) resulting in the death of any person, be punished by death or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, fined under title 18, or both.
So, it seems pretty clear to us, based on the letter of the law that people who have been supporting Sanctuary Cities and such are exposed to non-trivial legal penalties and more…but this is the kind of mental-muck that I’ve seen every time government “looks the other way” with a tolerance policy.
Doesn’t matter if it’s the border and illegal aliens, as discussed this morning, or the “wink and nod” that goes with allowing low-level hard drug use…it all ends badly with an erosion of society’s fundamentals – but that’s the point of the anarchist-social Webolutionary alliance, isn’t it?
OK, Back on the field of play: Second migrant caravan: New group rushes to join ranks, deportees vow return to America.
This all ends with the market probably moving higher for a while longer and then the fear of collapse come election day and the week after maybe. When – like from a band weekend-drunk – the country will wake up and wonder why we got talked into screwing ourselves out of a law-based system with equality for those who were willing to color inside the lines….
Snips and Quips
Oil holds near $80 as Saudi Arabia plans output increase – which means the US has put the Kingdom in something of a “Turkey sandwich” over the dead journo, perhaps?
Philip Morris stop-smoking campaign attacked as PR stunt… Hmmm…is that PR or puffery?
Computational Madness happy-talk here:”Virtual reality can help make everyone more empathetic…” Get back to us when a VR Call of Duty gets touchy-feely… (Hmmm…phone’s not ringing yet, lol)
Russia is “armed and dangerous” as we read in “Kremlin concerned over Trump’s decision to leave arms treaty.”
Duh! As our .mil expert warhammer notes,
“When you have a marriage and only one person keeps their vows, is it really a marriage?
Same goes for the nations signed on to an international treaty, be it for trade, immigration or arms control. So why is Trump to blame for scrapping the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia when the Ruskies have been ignoring the accord for years?
One might want to remember that the oath of the President of these United States takes an oath upon being sworn into office that (s)he will “will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” The POTUS is, by Article 2 of the Constitution, also the commander-in-chief and chief diplomat. As chief diplomat, the POTUS can make treaties (with 2/3 consent of the U.S. Senate). But what about terminating treaties?
Current legal consensus affirms that the Constitution gives the POTUS “executive powers,” which to the framers meant not only signing laws into place but deciding when laws (or treaties) may no longer apply. Essentially, there is nothing in the Constitution which forbids the President from terminating a ratified treaty, while Congress must consent to removal of any act passed into law.
So Trump is acting legally. As with all things Trump, he has his own method and turns rules to his favor. It just so happens that Europe is affected by how this all plays out.
So expect Trump to play hardball with Russia, just as he has with Mexico, Canada and China (and Europe, by default).
The man is playing 3-D chess and the rest of the world is having trouble communicating on his level, bombastic and offensive as that may be.”
We view this as another dandy opportunity to behold the levels to which pink-think and lefty-lunacy has taken over the media. Watch closely which liberal newstards defend unilateral American weakness without reciprocity. Let us count the ways….
As we have warned for years: the goal of the economic depression will be to remove the USA as an obstacle to global socialism’s take over of the planet in spite of having not record of success in any country where socialism has been tried so far. Peachy, huh? It’s why borders are bad, climate change sells, and why we have a 2+ year tear-jerk from the sore losers.
But don’t tell the kids…just get them off to the week’s fresh brainwashing sessions and tap that phone…We have a Reality to gloss-over. Tap on!
If you don’t know what freedom is, how will they know when it’s gone? Besides, wasn’t Jefferson just another bad white guy?
Sheesh…breakfast awaits – warn the pigs. Moron the ‘morrow…