Fingerprints of the Fed

Honestly, there’s not a hell of a lot to write about this week.  We know the market is going down – and we know the Fed has arranged for a market low to happen around the time of the election.

You what job!  How could you POSSIBLY know that?”

Let’s look at some data, shall we?  Specifically the Federal Reserve H.6 Money Stocks report which is conveniently published every Thursday.

The most-recent version of the report is anything but interesting.  As we read in the second data series (weekly):

All looks within reasonable expectations, right?

But this is basis the most-recent reporting period, the one ending October 9th.  That’s not where you find the “fingerprints.”

Instead, you need to look at the very first series of numbers – the monthly and consider them:

You see that?  A sizeable blip at the end of August.

Which in and of itself would not be so damn interesting, except that our Peoplenomics Aggregate Index peaked one month later.

While there’s a lot more to this story for subscribers this Wednesday, the key thing for you to know is that the market hit its all-time high (as an Aggregate which is how we deftly side-step the tape-painting of the Dow and such) on October 3 at 25,006.29.

The key word to be thinking about is hysteresis.  Which is means what?

:…the phenomenon in which the value of a physical property lags behind changes in the effect causing it…”

End of August Money Supply on the M1 (cash) side of things jumps…and almost exactly 30-days later our Aggregate peaks.

Is this proof of fingerprints of the Fed?  Or coincidence?

We are beginning to think link.  But we’re in the land of “best-fit” and chi-squares now, so we’ll leave that to people who subscribe.  People who get ahead over time are not “lazy” – they just work-out furiously with the “muscle between the ears” while “average” people are stabbing phones and holding down the couch.

This chasing-down market correlations is just as much fun as going to the beach with a metal detector and finding coins.  Excel,   it’s played with a trading platform and Excel – as well as being a year-round event.  Pays better, too, lol.

Speaking of Fedstuff:  CFNAI

Chicago Fed National Activity Report is just out.  Once again, the End of the World (EotW) has failed to appear….

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.17 in September from +0.27 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.21 in September from +0.27 in August.

Yes it decreased, but it’s still a positive reading as you can see here:

Market seems to take it in stride with the Dow futures up over a hundred…

While the market is set to rally this morning, it’s of little surprise since a modest rally continuing on for another week, or so, then declining (perhaps rather hard) into Election Day, wouldn’t be a  bad bead on future developments.

Madness on Bordering

Look for the whining media apologists to ramp up to a near-roar this coming week as about 5,000 military-aged men, not willing to stand up[ against evil in their own countries are coming here.

We’ve been very consist in our labeling this as a “soft invasion” – and as usual, the loony-Left who don’t understand what borders are, preach that all comers should be accommodated.  We not only disagree, but so does the law.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t an illegal alien someone in the country without permission a felony?  Technically no.  The first catch is a civil violation, but the second does become a felony.  Which apologists for non-borders point out is a minor felony…

Oh yes, how very inconvenient U.S. Code › Title 8 › Chapter 12 › Subchapter II › Part VIII › § 1325, must be to loonies.  Especially when a president is sworn to uphold the what?

Section 1324 gets us to wondering if those supporting illegal immigration are also on the hook because penalties are prescribed for anyone who…

“…(iv) encourages or induces an alien to come to, enter, or reside in the United States, knowing or in reckless disregard of the fact that such coming to, entry, or residence is or will be in violation of law; or

(v)(I) engages in any conspiracy to commit any of the preceding acts, or

(II) aids or abets the commission of any of the preceding acts,

shall be punished as provided in subparagraph (B).

Which says…

(B) A person who violates subparagraph (A) shall, for each alien in respect to whom such a violation occurs—

(i) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i) or (v)(I) or in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(ii), (iii), or (iv) in which the offense was done for the purpose of commercial advantage or private financial gain, be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 10 years, or both;

(ii) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(ii), (iii), (iv), or (v)(II), be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both;

(iii) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), or (v) during and in relation to which the person causes serious bodily injury (as defined in section 1365 of title 18) to, or places in jeopardy the life of, any person, be fined under title 18, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both; and

(iv) in the case of a violation of subparagraph (A)(i), (ii), (iii), (iv), or (v) resulting in the death of any person, be punished by death or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, fined under title 18, or both.

So, it seems pretty clear to us, based on the letter of the law that people who have been supporting Sanctuary Cities and such are exposed to non-trivial legal penalties and more…but this is the kind of mental-muck that I’ve seen every time government “looks the other way” with a tolerance policy.

Doesn’t matter if it’s the border and illegal aliens, as discussed this morning, or the “wink and nod” that goes with allowing low-level hard drug use…it all ends badly with an erosion of society’s fundamentals – but that’s the point of the anarchist-social Webolutionary alliance, isn’t it?

OK, Back on the field of play:  Second migrant caravan: New group rushes to join ranks, deportees vow return to America.

This all ends with the market probably moving higher for a while longer and then the fear of collapse come election day and the week after maybe.  When – like from a band weekend-drunk – the country will wake up and wonder why we got talked into screwing ourselves out of a law-based system with equality for those who were willing to color inside the lines….

Snips and Quips

Oil holds near $80 as Saudi Arabia plans output increase – which means the US has put the Kingdom in something of a “Turkey sandwich” over the dead journo, perhaps?

Philip Morris stop-smoking campaign attacked as PR stunt… Hmmm…is that PR or puffery?

Computational Madness happy-talk here:”Virtual reality can help make everyone more empathetic…”  Get back to  us when a VR Call of Duty gets touchy-feely…  (Hmmm…phone’s not ringing yet, lol)

Russia is “armed and dangerous” as we read in “Kremlin concerned over Trump’s decision to leave arms treaty.”

Duh!   As our .mil expert warhammer notes,

“When you have a marriage and only one person keeps their vows, is it really a marriage?

Same goes for the nations signed on to an international treaty, be it for trade, immigration or arms control.  So why is Trump to blame for scrapping the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia when the Ruskies have been ignoring the accord for years?

One might want to remember that the oath of the President of these United States takes an oath upon being sworn into office that (s)he will “will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”   The POTUS is, by Article 2 of the Constitution, also the commander-in-chief and chief diplomat.  As chief diplomat, the POTUS can make treaties (with 2/3 consent of the U.S. Senate).  But what about terminating treaties?

Current legal consensus affirms that the Constitution gives the POTUS “executive powers,” which to the framers meant not only signing laws into place but deciding when laws (or treaties) may no longer apply.  Essentially, there is nothing in the Constitution which forbids the President from terminating a ratified treaty, while Congress must consent to removal of any act passed into law.

So Trump is acting legally.  As with all things Trump, he has his own method and turns rules to his favor. It just so happens that Europe is affected by how this all plays out.

So expect Trump to play hardball with Russia, just as he has with Mexico, Canada and China (and Europe, by default).

The man is playing 3-D chess and the rest of the world is having trouble communicating on his level, bombastic and offensive as that may be.”

We view this as another dandy opportunity to behold the levels to which pink-think and lefty-lunacy has taken over the media.  Watch closely which liberal newstards defend unilateral American weakness without reciprocity.   Let us count the ways….

As we have warned for years: the goal of the economic depression will be to remove the USA as an obstacle to global socialism’s take over of the planet in spite of having not record of success in any country where socialism has been tried so far.  Peachy, huh?  It’s why borders are bad, climate change sells, and why we have a 2+ year tear-jerk from the sore losers.

But don’t tell the kids…just get them off to the week’s fresh brainwashing sessions and tap that phone…We have a Reality to gloss-over.  Tap on!

If you don’t know what freedom is, how will they know when it’s gone?  Besides, wasn’t Jefferson just another bad white guy?

Sheesh…breakfast awaits – warn the pigs. Moron the ‘morrow…

43 thoughts on “Fingerprints of the Fed”

  1. Excuse me for my rant. I saw the news today, a picture of the migrant caravan, after spray painting a swastika on the american flag, burning the flag.

    GOOD GRIEF. I can’t believe anything anymore. If the US is nazi, then stay the hell out. Dam. This is nuts.

  2. Reading the link to the law regarding border crossers, it seems that even the first time offenders are subject to BOTH civil and criminal penalties. The first time illegal attempt or crossing is a criminal offense with a six month prison sentence possible. It would be considered a misdemeanor offense. The second offense is definitely a felony level offense, though the federales don’t use those terms much.

    Note the use of the word ALIEN in the law rather than immigrant. Each is a word of art and has a specific meaning in the law. They are very different and not interchangeable. Not so in media when they seek to obfuscate.

    • This is were we need to look at the 13th amendment to the Constitution which abolished slavery and involuntary seritude,except as punishment for a crime. Now isn’t that somthing. We could punish the illegals by having them build the wall to keep them out. Use army corps of engineers for skilled labor and Military Police for guards.

  3. “will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

    … and they all did? ;-( Isn’t the whole bit about (so called) Democracy one big joke to keep the multitudes pacified? Just my opinion.

  4. George, why whine about the immigration rules? The Conservatives have been in charge of the entire government, and did nothing. NOTHING. You see, it’s not about fixing illegal immigration. No. It’s all about anger porn. Keeping angry white voters angry. Putting little kids in cages.

    If the Rs wanted to fix the immigration problem, which of course they don’t, simple: Tighten up the laws you’re whining about. Appoint more asylum judges. And increase dramatically the penalties on employers. Problem solved. No, instead the Conservatives were busy adding another 10% to the national debt and trying to kill Obamacare. And let’s not forget taking away lunches from hungry kids.

    Remember the Molly Tibbetts rape/murder? No one does. The story died as soon as Fox learned the Iowa farm where the illegal perp worked was owned by a Republican.

    Oh, by the way, if the Rs hadn’t cut taxes and lied us into the Iraq war, the national debt would be paid off. George, how would that have helped the dollar’s purchasing power? Best, Mike.

    • Point by point through the lefty brain washing:
      1. It was Obama and the deep state entirely on the ME immigrant push-down our throats
      2. Kids are in cages because they are fighting and unruly. Act like animals get treated like what?
      3. Molly is still dead. No one listened and she was not a “saleable item” for the neolewft press. Had nothing to do with R’s – if was the L agenda.
      4. national debt would NOT have been paid off – you need to get some accounting sense if you’re going to try that ruse on a predominantly economics site.
      Cheney and Bush lied…and what about 9/11? You see – both parties are arms of the Deep State and all answer to the same masters.,
      Except on recent president and he’ll fold, too, I figure. It’s just taking him a while.
      So you really gonna vote for Shillary in 2020?

      • “It was Obama and the deep state entirely on the ME immigrant push-down our throats”

        Apply a little forensics, I think it started with the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965.

        I remember clearly in the 1970’s Americans discussing “the new people with different religions” coming in.

      • I keep on reading that the Honduran refugees are a Planned event to make Trump look good come election time. By the sheer timing of the event, they should get to the American border 3-5 days before the Nov. 6th election. That’s about the same length of American attention spans. How convenient! Trump will beat his chest and take credit for stopping them. In my opinion, the border guards would have stopped them anyway… but don’t tell that to our egotistical POTUS. He knows a good television event when he sees one.

        Now…do I believe this? Maybe…maybe not. It’s about as believable as many of the lies the GOP and far right conservatives concoct about liberals. Trump, just the other day, claimed that Californian’s are rioting in the streets about Sanctuary cities. They aren’t. I live here. Not even a peep. Trumps comments have even made the conservatives mad here. They are afraid that this is an invitation for Idiots to take up rioting.

        The right continues to say the liberals want to take our guns away. We don’t….especially here in California. There are 344,000+ registered guns in this state..second only to Texas with over 588,000. We aren’t high gun owners per capita, but from a sales standpoint… We make the gun manufacturers a bunch of money.

        Bottom line…to me..our politics are a huge mess. Nobody believes each other. Nobody trusts Trump…Trump doesn’t Trust anyone that not related to him…Divisiveness is the new normal. Non-partisanship is as alien as…well….aliens…It’s a shame. It’s stressful. Both sides are responsible…and it needs to stop. But…as George has said time and time again. It’s a business model.

    • Just for the record as a foreign national I went through the US immigration system 3 times for 2-H1-Bs and legal alien status. It took 30 months as it was a rigid structured process commensurate with a sovereign nation. This current situation strikes me as worse than some of the 3rd world countries I’ve visited or worked in i.e. work permits. Just for those who are uninformed my immigration file contains a complete ancestry history, education records, complete medical history, multiple photographs, fingerprints and an FBI check. Kindly explain what any of this means as you/we watch the invasion from the south if the law is not applied? From your informed/s comments on the Jellyfish party I can only assume you have already made an excursion as a WEED tourist to Canuckistan!

      • I am proud to have you as a fellow American! Your are EXACTLY what America used to be about: Process and opportunity!

  5. I have been looking for why there is such an out crying over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. He is not an American citizen, he is citizen of Saudi Arabia. He was a supporter of ousted Al-Waleed bin Talai, who paid for Obama’s Harvard schooling and donated to Clinton Foundation. But mostly, he was a reporter for the Washington Post, is most reported fact by “MSM”. They seem to forget a younger brother of “MsB” is missing. He could return after his reeducation in a year or two.

  6. George,
    Yes, the inmates are running the asylum. Consider the large number of people whose smarts place them on the left side of the bell curve vs the smaller number of people who fall on the far right of the curve. The refugees from central america will only add to the problem. Is universal suffrage the inherent good we were lead to believe in?

    About the waves of economic immigrants and illegal aliens. There is research indicating that they will not assimilate. In the aggregate they do not come with skills that will contribute to the economy nor do they have the smarts to be trained. Because there is a high genetic correlation between i.q. of parent and child there is reason to believe this issue will be multi generational. But we are a nation of immigrants. Yes and no. European immigrants brought skills and intelligence. There was no expectation of food stamps, free medical services, housing subsidies, free education. Also, intelligent people tend to have intelligent children.
    Further more, there is not necessarily a job for everyone nor is it possible to train anyone to do anything.

    • I take exception to your belief that “IQ” (as you label it) or intelligence quotient is a reliable predictor of future worth to our country. Current research indicates that there are several types of intelligence.

      As an example, while I have been able to retain much knowledge – the classic definition of intelligence – I am poor at interacting with people in person. My sister, on the other hand, is extremely good talking with a wide range of people, and can get almost unreal results. However I would never rely on her knowing something, without first checking her facts.

      You have, without naming it directly, introduced the concept of “Nature vs. Nurture” i.e. genetics versus the environment that one is exposed to growing up. One would not expect a person raised in a poor environment to have the same mentality as someone given the best of everything as a child.

      As to the idea that immigrants do not assimilate – the first generation of ANY group of people coming to the United States maintains their culture while their children commonly become comfortable with American society.

      As a librarian, you must be familiar with how the Irish were regarded in the nineteenth century as they came to the United States because of the potato famine. And yet, fifty years ago, a direct descendant of these immigrants, became president our country – John F. Kennedy.

      Do not people from South America deserve the same chance?

      • As a one-time librarian myself (a ‘page’ putting books back on shelves when I was 14) I don’t think you’re “hearing” what the Old Librarian is saying.

        First, there are two kinds of IQ. The Stanford Binet-type measures that are based on ability bounded by cultural norms. And then there is “native learning ability” which the liberals glom onto.

        More correctly, the Old Librarian would have explained in details that acculturation plays a HUGE role in outcomes. Socialist agitators, going back to Karl Marx, Egnels, et al, were mostly “smart” but they wanted to bite the hand that fed them. Which they did well. However, Marx was born to the silver spoon and I don’t know as he really “worked” (in the common sense) a day in his life.

        That said, while all peoples of the world have equal “potential” (plus or minus some regional genetics) it’s the acculturation that makes the difference. And this goes right down to the weather.

        People whose roots are tropical and semi-tropical have “invented” less than people in temperate climes.

        The reason? Having to deal with a beastly winter (as northern Europeans did) causes one to invent or die at a cultural level. Ergo, planning ahead. Food storage, prepping, invention, and so forth. On the other hand, in countries without a solid winter, the drivers of do or die were notably absent.

        In the case of South America, the people are just nuts. Why, putting a Swastika on an American Flag and burning it…then continuing to march towaqrd Swastika land is either a) crazy OR 9Libtard media won’t point this out) b) they are coming here as an invasion force planning disruption and take-down of the present order.

        Seems pretty damn easy to figure out which, doesn’t it?

        So count t5he military aged men – see the picture on the fp of Drudge this morlning – and ask yourselves a simple question: Are these people coming to assimi8late or take over?

        Democrats are hoping for the latter – rational people fear it.

        South and Central American politics is as male-centric as it gets so why would we want such machismo in American politics? Or, haven’t we have enough?

      • M.D.S.

        I am talking about the i.q. that underlies other abilities. Students with high i.q.’s will do better on the SAT than students with lower i.q.’s.

        Psychologists have studied the nature vs nurture issue. Sadly improving environment does little to improve i.q.

        Assimilation. Yes, everyone should know the story of Irish immigrants. The point I tried to make was that European
        immigrants did assimilate but recent immigrants from middle america and the middle east not so much. Also, if assimilation was not a problem then why do we the bifurcation between English and Spanish languages.

        Finally, I apologize for not making it clear the I was talking about middle americans not south americans.

      • Holy Cow, George! I can’t believe that you are repeating that old canard about ‘Northern Europeans’ being ‘better’. While it is true that certain aspects of culture, namely advanced scientific exploration, have recently been dominated by males – women in the past hundred years have slowly begun to reclaim a more fair balance in the experience of life in general.

        And as to ‘life in tropical climes’ being ‘free and easy’ and ‘non-inventive’, people from ‘the north’ – myself included – might still be carving runes and counting on fingers if some ‘mid-easterners’ hadn’t invented writing, and mathematics.

        Males in any culture will move around, what is unusual is women with children . . .

        (Personal note: along with being a Lab aide in high school, I was a Library aide for four years – and worked later in the Multnomah County system (once the second most popular in the US) and later in the Washington County system. I was a clerk – would have loved to have had training as a librarian, but the only professional school closest to the west coast – according to the people I worked with was in Tulsa, Ok. But at once time I did have six thousand books . . .)

        Intelligent (and dumb) people are not limited to any particular culture or race.

        • Look at major inventions.
          Use a world map and pins.
          If you can’t see it, check with your opthamologist!
          Data’s never wrong – just never populat

      • So G – You don’t think that the middle eastern inventions of writing and math are significant?
        This person with a history degree is sighing . . .

        (By the way your last post has a typo – the last letter should be ‘r’, not ‘t’ – comments about eye doctors not withstanding.)

        • Oh my: Writing: “… has been invented independently in the Near East, China and Mesoamerica…” (Google #1 result)

          On math” Math is not an invention. Math did not exist until the classical Greek period from 600 to 300 BC. People such as Euclid, Pythagoras, Archimedes and Eratosthenes simply discovered a new science, the science of numbers..” (Google #1 result)
          But Greece of the time was more forested, temperate “During the winter much of Greece may have snow, and much snowfall can be expected in the higher mountains of Greece.”

  7. With the number of UFO sightings in Mexico, is this an UFO/Alien experiment to break the will of the American people by sending hoardes of illegals northward to break us for an easy takeover that won’t even be noticed until it is too late. The Arabs are assualting Europe in the same fashion. Break the white man & the USA will fall.

  8. Close our southern border…COMPLETELY…if you want to leave so be it..BUT no reentry even for US citizens..Completely shut down..then keep ALL who try to enter here OUT and inside of Mexico….since it is Mexico that allows for travel through their country

    • Back in 2017 Robert Shiller called this “1928 again.” You going to believe shills or smart people?

  9. The illegals are coming to finish what Obama started, namely the destruction of our medical,medicare and legal systems. The illegals will overrun our hospitals and treatment facilities and bleed the taxpayers into 3rd world status. We are being invaded as part of the Demoncratics plan to destroy the United States of America! Trump should declare Marshall Law and do what needs to be done and the hell with the liberal media!

    • “Trump should declare Marshall Law and do what needs to be done and the hell with the liberal media!”

      That’s why I voted for him, but he didn’t

  10. I’ve read: “In my opinion, the border guards ould have stopped them anyway…?

    Can anyone be that naive and still be successful? What a country we are ;-)

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