The problem: Could break up – or down.
As you may know, this website began as my Master’s capstone back in 1998-1997. It’s focus was originally Long Wave Economics and how will America cope when the financial crap hits the fan. The “dollar” has less than 4 percent of its 1913 purchasing power left. the rest has been sucked out by debt.
When we take the longer view, the next 300 points down – which will likely happen shortly after the open this morning – will continue a long-term Elliott Wave phenomenon that has been visible since the Housing Bubble Collapse in 2007-2010 with the nominal stock bottom in April 2009.
As you can see in the chart below, however, that was not really our first near-brush with disaster and a “second ’29-style debacle. That had come on the heels of the collapse of the Internet stock Bubble in 2000.
The reason most people can’t cope with this data is that they are young and honestly haven’t been around long enough, or read deeply enough, to see what the data is saying:
If the numbers used don’t make sense, it’s because we use an Aggregate Index in our work on the https://peoplenomics.com side of the house. It assumes that you put an equal number of dollars into the stock market in 2000 and let it ride.
That major decline following the spring 2000 peak was the Tech Wreck which wiped out $5-7-Trillion of American savings.
What’s also evident that the US Fed undertook a HUGE STEALTH INFLATION in order to end the bottoming process post- 9/11. You see, the USA was in a prime position to repeat 1929 and whack 75% off stock prices then. But, the Federal Government has a strong sense of self-preservation.
1929 analogs were hauled out instantly. Including hiring programs the likes of which would rival the early First Depression hiring binges with the Civilian Conservation Corp and the Works Progress Administration.
Until the 1930’s, these were rolled-out almost overnight (in response to false-flag or real terrorism – it doesn’t make any difference): We knew these as the second Middle East war and the TSA plus uncountable jobs created in supporting industries like body scanners, Fusion Centers, and all the rest of it.
Moreover, there was also a lot of work done to ensure that “emergency hiring” would light an inflation fire, again.
For one, Alan Greenspan allowed “no doc” loans to flourish. The Fed and the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of Currency) could have demanded better loan standards…but why risk a slow recovery? It didn’t stop there….
The US Government, you see, no doubt has a lot of advanced socioeconomic modeling horsepower that gives highest-level policymakers a very good view of the future. And honestly, the potential for the internet bubble (or whatever it would become) was already likely visible in continuity of government models in the early 1990’s which is why no serious student of history was surprised at AmeriCorp as an echo to the Civilian Conservation Corp was planned in the early 1990s…...As Wikipedia explains…
“The program first became operational in 1994 and has expanded over time, with over 80,000 members participating annually as of 2012. Members may be provided low financial compensation in the form of cost-of-living allowances, student loan deferment, Public Service Loan Forgiveness, and the Americorps Education Award. Less tangible benefits include professional skill development and work experience. An internal study found that participation in AmeriCorps strengthened civic attitudes and sentiment, making members more likely to choose careers in public service.
We note that the year before initial operational status (’94) al Qaeda had already tried to blow up the Twin Towers already. Again, that was in 1993. The US needed to be ready. And we were…mostly.
With a ground war to prop up the defense industry and errant (or fake) WMD claims, an easy-to-demonize group of anti-American terrorists, and multiple instant hiring programs (TSA, AmeriCorp) plus a buttload of grants and projects for “security” all that remained was for the Fed to roll with the stealth hyperinflation which began puffing up stocks from 2009.
It’s here that our weekly data reveals how closely we are continuing the 1929 path and why a bet on the upside – after a bottoming process that could spill into year end, or early next, might leave us one more chance to have a blow-off top. Highly inflationary? Yes.
The problem, however, is that we have no assurances that there is one more major wave up to come.
As you can see, the Elliott case could be read that the following “rules” have already been met: (Referring to the first chart: )
- Wave 1 up from 2009 was complex (two parts) so the 6 should be simple. Which it is.
- Wave 3 must be bigger than Wave 1. Which it was.
- Wave 5 must be bigger than or at least equal to Wave 1. Which it is.
In short, events may drive in the media, but on Wall St and at the Fed is where decisions will be made. Perhaps one last rate hike and then a “no more hikes for a while” would set off the final blow-off to the upside, if that’s the way models call it.
American Economics Requires CoG
While most websites play “follow the leaders” – the more leftist media around these days -and play “pin the fake news on the donkeys” who have it coming, most people have never considered how much economic policy might be driven by contingency Continuity of Government plans.
Yet, if you have read the second report of the American Continuity of Government panel, available from 2016 via this Brookings Institution site, you would see some of the “worst case scenarios” that have been enshrined in TV shows like The Designated Survivor.
ISYN – See if this isn’t a perfect fit. This is from the AEI-Brookings report:
The CoG work came first, of course.
The continuity report cited above was not a government effort…
“The Continuity of Government Commission is a private AEI-Brookings commission funded by the Carnegie, Hewlett Packard, and MacArthur Foundations. It is comprised of members with experience in various branches of government and expertise in the daily functioning of our government. It was founded in the fall of 2002 to consider how each of our three branches of government might reconstitute themselves after a catastrophic
attack on Washington, D.C. and to make recommendations for statutory and constitutional changes that would improve the continuity of our basic institutions.”
I mention this in some detail because when the economy is in crisis, it is often the result of other factors.
Take today: We face an invasion at the Mexico border from a massive caravan of mostly military-aged males from Central American nations that do not hold to American values and, ion fact, hate us.
Why would we let them in?
The answer is simple: Understand that Leftists control the media (and if you don’t believe that assertion go read how Google, Facebook and Twitter staffs splurge on Democrats ahead of midterms.)
With the Caravan approaching, we have to ask “Why aren’t the Open Border People speaking up?” Answer? They will like to keep their jobs, of course and we’re close to elections…ergo Democrats avoid sparring with Trump on caravan as midterm nears. Oh…so they’re caught on the wrong side of the collusion coup, are they?
One last note in our focus this morning: Terrorism is very seldom the work on “lone wolf” type operators. It’s usually well-orchestrated. So toss this into the blender while you’re ruminating on “What’s going on…really?”
Who gave the order and whose side were they on?
Best Govt. Money Can Buy Dept.
The mainstream still largely ignoring the former Interpol boss missing in China, but there’s the matter of whether he had “clean hands.”
Also in that ‘hood US. Sails Warships Through the Taiwan Strait in a Show of Force to China/
More Bad News for Dems
This press release caught our eye: Record Job Openings and a Volatile Market Impacting Average Americans’ Financial Satisfaction: Index to be Released this Thursday, October 25.
Enough of our Tuesday rant…moron the ‘morrow…futures down 400 at click time.
Blood in the streets?