Feels Like a Depression, Eh?

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A reader brought the question to us (“Why does it feel like a Depression?“) driven by seeing how many under 50s still live with their parents, for example.

It’s a dandy question – which takes us on a 4-thousand word jaunt from Al Capone’s soup kitchen in Chicago to the parallels between hoboes and illegal immigrants.

You’ll also want to see the mechanics of how “financial friction” can help to hide inflation – which your tour guide will point out along the way.

After the Producer Prices data and the ChartPack, of course.

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35 thoughts on “Feels Like a Depression, Eh?”

  1. Radios in Ukraine–149.2

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/volga-149-200/

    Ukrainians are surrendering through Russia’s Volga’s 149.200 radio frequency. “Use this radio frequency only if you plan to surrender. Give us your position and then you will be taken into custody. You will be provided with all necessary medical care. You will be fed and given food.” VOLGA 149.200 is spray-painted across buildings throughout the war zone. Over 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered in this manner since June. Winter is now approaching.

    We must remember that not every Ukrainian soldier is there willingly. Zelensky demanded that children as young as 16 risk their lives to fight in his war. Countless polls show the majority of Ukrainians believe Zelensky is corrupt and they do not want war. Zelensky demanded that every man under the age of 65 return to Ukraine to fight and the EU is happy to expel them back into Zelensky’s grip

  3. A few Comments over the last few day have talked about some “Sensitives” seeing a major battle for the survival of Israel occurring before the end of the year.

    I am going to leave this link to Manfred Zimmel, a financial market letter writer – probably the best of the last 15 years (his service starts somewhere around $25-$50,000/year and goes up from there), since of his last Public Writing talked about that issue.

    I have followed Zimmel on the public side for 15 years and his approach to trading it very very different from everyone else out there. He integrates key items from all the world’s major religions plus astrology and astronomy with traditional Cycles and Technical Trading methods. No one else out there that I have ever read adds all the religious stuff into their analysis … and as mentioned he has been exceptionally successful wrt the markets during the time I have followed him.

    Be prepared before you read him be aware that it is NOT about markets this time. He is an old school Catholic type believer … Demons, Angels, Possession, Evilness having been “locked up” for thousands of years … etc. etc.. He ventures far from markets at times, and in his ventures away from markets has been very perceptive wrt things that almost nobody else is considering at the time he writes about them.

    The below linked last report may be his last … since he like GA Stewart believes that many of the writings of Prophets are about to come about. Zimmel per his writings believes the battles and changes will take some time to play out, 3 periods of about 9 years each and end in the late 2040’s.

    I pass no judgement as to his belief system or projections. Very different probably from anything you have ever read before … more akin to possibly what religious people of the early middle ages believed.

    What he was writing about years ago, and his projected timing, was before GA Stewart started publishing his work so he is not and has not been “borrowing” from Mr. Stewart’s good work (imo) when he also has talked about Nostradamus.

    (click on the link towards the bottom of his page … you don’t need to register to read his last writing which was published June 14, 2023)

    https://www.amanita.at/en/

    • Prophecy #17 …
      “The big year of X”
      (2023?)

      Gee, and I thought “X” was just a symbol for Twitter.

      Hmmm

    • I 2nd this opinion.I have bee following him for alittle bit longer and it took me 2yrs to believe what I was reading.He actually tells you it will take time for what info he gives to grasp it and for me unfortunately I would have made a fortune. On the other hand, I will always be most grateful to Stu for opening my eyes and understanding of Nostradamus work and laying it out in layman terms for all of us to understand.

  4. George,
    Occam’s Razor Wilshire October 2023 Crash low

    Fractal decay pathway to 27 October 2023 Crash Low
    (Final projected quantum fractal low: January – March 2025.)

    The Wilshire:
    From 18 August 2023: 6/15/13 days :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x
    From 3 October 2023: 4/9/8 days :: x/2-2.5x/2x

    • TEF: I’ve been watching your posts here for years but they all go over my head. Can you suggest a primer on fractals, e.g. “Fractals for Idiots” or some such?

    • The ads a reflection of what you search for… they reflect not what G wants but what your internet search leads them to suggest products that reflect your search history…. I love to play with that for a side joke and get ads of all kinds.. lately I have been getting spatulas because my spatula broke. Which is why I believe that with google auto correct I believe that someone as a joke added a small program in the auto text correct to juggle words when it auto corrects.. you write one thing it slips in a quick word to give everyone a chuckle.. Now after reading that malware was hardwired into chips of phones and television computers etc.. to download micro burst information.. to take over financials.. I quit using one popular financial program I used for years because when they changed it and let the company handle all your accounts the thing quit learning how to count.. and I am sure if you and anyone else uses that very same program.. it would be a few cents off.. so how much is fifty cents of two billion users per day.. unless it is over ten dollars most people will just adjust their figures to match..
      it is the same with the cloud and giving some of these popular programs the right to own and manage …
      but play with it.. the internet is listening..

  8. Economically and financially we are not in a depression.
    – At best, we are in a stealth ‘recession’. A lot of people are hurting right now – and I think it will get a lot worse. But technically, we aren’t there – yet.
    – We are, however, in a socio-psychological depression. As a country we are really down – mentally and emotionally. We have no spark., no interests., just a constant illusion of trying to “get by”., make ends meet and keep going. Hate, greed, mistrust, division, corruption – all rule at the moment and that is taking us even deeper into psychological despair.
    – None of this is going to end well. I can see the next 18 to 24 months as being the worst time in the history of our country.

    • We have developed a multi-tier economic system analogous to and borrowing from any and all of the totalitarian systems of the past. Monarchies, religious states, Rome, the Confederacy, military juntas, the Communists and the Socialists- you can see all of the influences on American economics.
      The upper one percent live well and have some opportunities; the majority of the lower 99% are debt ridden indentured servants, except the indenture lasts a lifetime, not seven years. The debt slaves who lose their credit rating become economic untouchables, and they live in a very real depression economy tier.
      I am nowhere near a 1%-er, but I stay out of debt by planning, saving, and not getting sucked into an unsupportable lifestyle. If I lose my job, I suck it up and pull in my elbows. With SS approaching, that will get even easier. And even though I am out of debt, I still have credit monitoring and identity theft insurance through one of the majors. I pay off the credit cards weekly and biweekly. If I make major purchase, I pay off the card as soon as the charge clears. Disciplined spending. Living in the era of the Zon without plastic is possible, but would be a massive lifestyle downgrade, and would increase expenses immensely.
      Note that most people who are screwed over by the medical industry are helpless victims of exploitation by the royal medicals. But there are a lot who volunteer for exploitation through poor lifestyle choices.

      • n___: Yes, the 1% are doing well. Article in a local weekly paper said that orders are increasing for superyachts and megayachts despite many Russian oligarchs leaving the scene. To browse at the Monaco Yacht show costs a $635 admission. Guess that will keep the riff-raff out! You ain’t nothing unless you both a helicopter and a submarine on your boat.

        Meanwhile, when I went to have work done on my kayak here in Vero Beach, I found that the kayak shop had just closed for good last week.

        • Are you talking about the shop just north of Vero? Bought two of my yaks from them. They were a real sweet old couple,,,,I say that but they were probably my age around 60 ish..The Indian river lagoon is am amazing place to kayak…..good to know another one of us are here!

      • Spot on my friend that is the way we have become not an indentured serf, but more of a Free- Man in Medieval speak. Un bound by debt, but not rich by any means……..kinda free

        • Frankness: Orchid Island Bike and Kayak closed its kayak operation and half of the store. Not familiar with the shop you mentioned–possibly in Palm Bay? Looks like I’ll have to try to fix the Mirage Drive myself. Our kayak haunts range from Sebastian to Ft. Pierce plus Blue Cypress Lake, but we’re looking to go further afield

    • Biden was saying that the economy is strong and fewer people are out of work.. we are not in a depression but flourishing economically.. OH I GET IT…. he has never had a job LOL LOL LOL or had to work for a living how could he know if it is or isn’t he has never had to experience what the regular people live with…. he lives at the troughs of the DC feed trough.. LOL LOL Even the VA medical system has changed.. they use to have the IRS just jump in your accounts and take money out for medical care every month.. LOL LOL Now they have a private collection agency that is charging interest on your medical treatments at the VA medical system similar to all the other medical systems in this country..there is a song that I think says it all on how they are not only training our youth to be but how life is all over this country anymore….. LOL LOL.. https://youtu.be/5IpYOF4Hi6Q?si=HsKGZF6IFL6oeAUg

    • If you look at the video, also look at the comments. It is not that simple! Plenty of blame to go around!

  10. Although I doubt it, I must be an optimist about the future. I’m in the initial stages of 60-90 days of dickering with a major insurer for long-term care insurance. I mentioned the other day that my lifemate and ladder holder had passed 18 months ago. I’m in the reverse of George’s situation. I was eight years older than she was, and she had it all planned to be my long-term caregiver. Man proposes, etc. I wonder if this major insurer will even be a viable entity 60 to 90 days from now. The only saving grace is that I’ve lost 75 lbs. since she passed and I’m in the best physical shape I’ve been in for 15 to 20 years. The MDs even say so. I’m also a firm believer in recycling brass and lead. I envy George his 120 yards. Gray Fox

    • In the beginning the 12 year difference between Diana and I never occurred to me, well besides the obvious, until her dad and I talked. He was not happy about his 22 year old daughter running around with a 34 year old cop. We’re best friends now. Mom in law passed last year and we talked about being alone. I dread the day when Diana and I are no longer alive together but I keep going on in faith we will be together forever.
      Stay safe.

  12. “this Third Party”

    We had the T-Party as a 3rd. Next up could be the U-Party. The U-Party will save us, led by Dems this time. If the U-Party isn’t successful after U comes V, the V-Party. There’s really no limit to names.

    Let’s roll back 50+ years. 50 years is a long time.

    ‘A Third Party May Be A Real Force in ’72’

    WASHINGTON. IT is not unlikely or unreasonable to believe that there will be a lib eral third ? party movement by 1972. Dissatisfaction with the two major parties is widespread. This dissatisfaction is not regional or sec tional. It is not restricted to one economic or cultural group, but is based upon frustration and disap pointment which has a historical base.

    https://www.nytimes.com/1970/06/07/archives/a-third-party-may-be-a-real-force-in-72-a-third-party-may-be-a-real.html

    And here we are. Maybe time for a 3rd party. We’re trapped like a Palestinian in front of a tank on the Gaza Boulevard.

  13. My hospital wifi filters out urban, but not nomics. Mystery…. (in for some
    pesky congestive heart failure. nothing big.)
    Now, for this fool’s silly scenario: Iran nooks Damascus,and blames
    Israel. it might sell well among the crazzies.
    Me? I’m a simple Christian man, and believer in the Gospel of Christ. There. I said it. Out loud & everything.
    7299 day 3999 nite
    on the 15s and the 45s
    everybody else goes on the
    hour or the half. Tiresome.
    73 KW1B

  14. “To an extent, it might be argued that the Green Agenda is a kind of infrastructure parallel. After all, it’s argued, the saving of energy is the same as making it. ”

    No.

    This is the same ideology which gives license to the thought that the accrual of money and fungible assets merely for the sake of their accrual, is a useful pursuit. “Money” is a medium of exchange, not an entry on a scorecard. “Energy” is, by definition, useless unless it is put to use.

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