Sitting in a casino hotel in Oklahoma at 5 AM writing, it’s just not right to think about doing a chi-square analysis for you. I’m, trying to “unlax” a bit, since re-laxing presumes a preceding “lax” has occurred. Not so. We haven’t seen hide nor hair of “lax.”
Before I regale you (assuming you knew gale, lol) with Ure wins at Casino, let’s look at the higher-stakes game being played by the Fed.
In the Thursday H.6 Money Stocks the Fed revealed that in the December window, the rate of M1 increase was being pumped up at 7 percent annualized. That’s shown in the November to February window reported as the first data set here.
It wasn’t that Santa had been running around putting lumps of coal in the “financial stockings” at Christmas. It was that fat-red-fellow (or choose another f -word) had put a noxious mix of kryptonite and nuclear waste in stockings. Scared the hell out of the bankster class, it did. But, as usual, turn up the money supply and hand out freebies to the big hedgies and “Oh, look, Martha, the market is rallying...” NSS.
That’s because, as every school-kid knows, the Fed is not in charge of keeping the Casino honest. Were that the case, the S&P would be coming back from an excursion down to 1,815, or so. Print money? Fill in the (financial) holes and off to the moon we go. M1 is rocket fuel.
Except now, with the market heading for possible new highs between now and end of May, the Fed is trying to let just the right amount of air out of the pricklish bubble.
You see this in the H.6 second set of figures for the window ending March 11th. Notice that the 90-day rate of increase has declined from St. Nick’s 7% Hedgmas Gift levels to a mere 4 percent annualized.
This isn’t exactly “slamming the brakes on.” Rather, more like a solid tap of the brakes to remind front-seat passengers to keep their seat belts on at all times.
Our best-case outlook, if indeed we get fresh highs ahead, is that through some sleight-of-hand this wad of chewing gum and baling wire (called the economy) can hang on to the traditional market highs come the third week of August to the first week of September.
While this would yield a delicious replay of 1929’s track, we continue to worry that historical pressures like the 72-year war cycle, will shorten the run a bit to July, or so, at which time history may be inclined to serve up a nuclear exchange on the Indian Subcontinent. Between now and then such a market trajectory would kill off the perma-bears, who (not being able to get palsy with the 9th circus) will be massively hurt. And then, just when Great Times are Ahead breaks out like the south Texas immigrant mumps & measles, here will come the “news flash” of a lifetime…or is that deathtime?” Depends on if you have loge seats.
Fed policy will appear even-handed and is widely hailed as such. Except your money will buy 5% less next year, just as it bought about that much less this year when you look at other measures of inflation, such as John Williams’ ShadowStats work. Or the real cost of housing. Or the real cost of food…
When you see the data like this, President Tweet’s remarks about the Fed holding-back the economy in 2018 seem somewhat less bizarre. But, you’d never know it reading the lefty-run NE liberal press cabal.
Data seems to agree with Trump: Fed held money down too long last fall.
A short discussion of banditry, as long as I’m tilling the unplumbed fields of real of inflation.
I take you back to 1973 when, as a young Seattle rock & roll news director, I was flown down to San Francisco to interview at KFRC. I remember seeing just off Bush Street that parking was a (then) outrageous $8-bucks a day. “Wowee Mr. Science!” I was shocked. Seattle parking was about $4.00 bucks a day at the time.
Fast-forward to last week and son George II had a day’s worth of meetings in downtown Seattle.
“Dad, I spent more than $170 on parking!”
Turns out the first half-hour is $15-bucks and then it really piled on.
The harsh and bitter truth of End-Stage America?
You can’t even buy parking in an urban core on the Federal poverty-level income. Which is, frankly, kind of sick. Wonder why the poor aren’t inclined to find work? They can’t afford parking, and have anything left, maybe?
Notwithstanding, the lessons of parking rate history are not lost on Elaine and me. We’re setting our will up so that when global population quintuples (as it will when breakthrough anti-aging arrives, giving government a hard choice between NukeWar and Taxing people to death), our 28.82 acres of “parking” in the East Texas outback will result in a Rockefeller-dwarfing pile of dough.
And since we’re tinkering with the anti-aging technology, maybe we can avoid the Soylent Green outcome. No doubt, like getting into college for the over-priced special chilluns, there will be a path for the rich to remain out of the food chain when direct recycling arrives.
A little ketchup with your finger food?
Mueller – Fishing Season Ends?
Democrats will be crazier than normal in coming weeks if Robt. Mueller doesn’t come up with something more spectacular than what ABC hints at in their “Letter from deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein offers potential road map to special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe – Sources familiar with the probe believe there are no more indictments expected.”
All of which spurs us to a new project when we get away from the gaming tables here: What is the “shelf life of Trump hate?”
What preservatives will the dems add to it?
Why, even NBC News is (finally) getting around to the idea that you may be disappointed by the Mueller report. We’ll watch and wait for the NY Times and CBS to join-in.
How does it feel to be a Trump-hating liberal and just pissed-way two years of personal energy that might have been used to better your life instead of going on the national lefty hate-binge? Easy to swindle fools, we imagine..
We see evidence in 2020 Dem slams Trump’s ‘porn star presidency’ but called Bill Clinton-Paula Jones case ‘frivolous’ that dems have memory issues. Ask your doctor if symptoms persist.
Does this sound like something we’ve been telling you? How Twitter’s algorithm is amplifying extreme political rhetoric… Since it’s from CNN did anyone think to add management and editors to the distro list?
Non-stop marketing of the transgender business model is on display in “Georgia high school tells transgender student who identifies as male to run for prom queen: report.”
Back to Basic Economics
You know trouble is just ahead for Ure-Up when you see stories like German 10-year yields dive below zero to two and a half year lows as growth fears roil markets. Or, maybe you don’t know that.
Might explain why Dow futures are down 105 early, though, right?
A Kind Word About Indian Casinos
I think I have mentioned this before, but we have consistently found one of the most enjoyable ways to get out and travel is by visiting Indian casinos.
The one we’re at here in Oklahoma is no except. Impeccable housekeeping, new property, and the food has been delicious.
When we travel, they give good value for the money and it’s a fraction of the hassle of going on a cruise ship. Just throw some cloth3es in a bag and go…valet the car and no lines or hassles. Best rates on Sunday through Thursdays, so we work the calendar a bit. Pricier on show nights and weekends.
We don’t plan to make any money, although as of this morning, Elaine’s down $10-bucks and I’m up $11. And that’s after two hours of gambling, Along not far from the I-40 corridor, we like the WinStar in Thackerville, OK, south of 40. In Lawton, OK, we’re at the Apache Hotel-Casino.
Out in Albuquerque, the Sandia south of town is good, with Twin Arrows up near Flagstaff another favorite.
Commercial casinos like the Grand and Bellagio are marvelous in Las Vegas, and the Pepper Mill is old-school marvelous in Reno. Down the road from there, Seven Feathers near Canyon City Oregon breaks up the Seattle drive when we’re getting out around the country.
One hint: Ask for a room with a fridge. There are usually some – people need them for medicine sometimes. Then have a big meal early and if you can, get a turkey club with cole slaw and stick it in the fridge for a late-night snack.
My “big mission” today? Recon of the chicken-friend tenderloin seems like a good starting point. Elaine sleeps in. while back-home Panama holds down the ranch-end of life.
Now all I need is a big win on a progressive machine… and work on tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report…