Fed to End Rally?

Sitting in a casino hotel in Oklahoma at 5 AM writing, it’s just not right to think about doing a chi-square analysis for you.  I’m, trying to “unlax” a bit, since re-laxing presumes a preceding “lax” has occurred.  Not so. We haven’t seen hide nor hair of “lax.”

Before I regale you (assuming you knew gale, lol) with Ure wins at Casino, let’s look at the higher-stakes game being played by the Fed.

In the Thursday H.6 Money Stocks  the Fed revealed that in the December window, the rate of M1 increase was being pumped up at 7 percent annualized. That’s shown in the November to February window reported as the first data set here.

It wasn’t that Santa had been running around putting lumps of coal in the “financial stockings” at Christmas.  It was that fat-red-fellow (or choose another f -word) had put a noxious mix of kryptonite and nuclear waste in stockings.  Scared the hell out of the bankster class, it did.  But, as usual, turn up the money supply and hand out freebies to the big hedgies and “Oh, look, Martha, the market is rallying...” NSS.

That’s because, as every school-kid knows, the Fed is not in charge of keeping the Casino honest.  Were that the case, the S&P would be coming back from an excursion down  to 1,815, or so.  Print money?  Fill in the (financial) holes and off to the moon we go. M1 is rocket fuel.

Except now, with the market heading for possible new highs between now and end of May, the Fed is trying to let just the right amount of air out of the pricklish bubble.

You see this in the H.6 second set of figures for the window ending March 11th.  Notice that the 90-day rate of increase has declined from St. Nick’s 7% Hedgmas Gift levels to a mere 4 percent annualized.

This isn’t exactly “slamming the brakes on.”  Rather, more like a solid tap of the brakes to remind front-seat passengers to keep their seat belts on at all times.

Our best-case outlook, if indeed we get fresh highs ahead, is that through some sleight-of-hand this wad of chewing gum and baling wire (called the economy) can hang on to the traditional market highs come the third week of August to the first week of September.

While this would yield a delicious replay of 1929’s track, we continue to worry that historical pressures like the 72-year war cycle, will shorten the run a bit to July, or so, at which time history may be inclined to serve up a nuclear exchange on the Indian Subcontinent.   Between now and then such a market trajectory would kill off the perma-bears, who (not being able to get palsy with the 9th circus) will be massively hurt.  And then, just when Great Times are Ahead breaks out like the south Texas immigrant mumps & measles, here will come the “news flash” of a lifetime…or is that deathtime?”  Depends on if you have loge seats.

Fed policy will appear even-handed and is widely hailed as such.  Except your money will buy 5% less next year, just as it bought about that much less this year when you look at other measures of inflation, such as John Williams’ ShadowStats work.  Or the real cost of housing.  Or the real cost of food…

When you see the data like this, President Tweet’s remarks about the Fed holding-back the economy in 2018 seem somewhat less bizarre.  But, you’d never know it reading the lefty-run NE liberal press cabal.

Data seems to agree with Trump: Fed held money down too long last fall.

Parking Inflation

A short discussion of banditry, as long as I’m tilling the unplumbed fields of real of inflation.

I take you back to 1973 when, as a young Seattle rock & roll news director, I was flown down to San Francisco to interview at KFRC.  I remember seeing just off Bush Street that parking was a (then) outrageous $8-bucks a day.  “Wowee Mr. Science!”  I was shocked.  Seattle parking was about $4.00 bucks a day at the time.

Fast-forward to last week and son George II had a day’s worth of meetings in downtown Seattle.

Dad, I spent more than $170 on parking!”

Turns out the first half-hour is $15-bucks and then it really piled on.

The harsh and bitter truth of End-Stage America?

You can’t even buy parking in an urban core on the Federal poverty-level income.  Which is, frankly, kind of sick.  Wonder why the poor aren’t inclined to find work?  They can’t afford parking, and have anything left, maybe?

Notwithstanding, the lessons of parking rate history are not lost on Elaine and me.  We’re setting our will up so that when global population quintuples (as it will when breakthrough anti-aging arrives, giving government a hard choice between NukeWar and Taxing people to death), our 28.82 acres of “parking” in the East Texas outback will result in a Rockefeller-dwarfing pile of dough.

And since we’re tinkering with the anti-aging technology, maybe we can avoid the Soylent Green outcome.  No doubt, like getting into college for the over-priced special chilluns, there will be a path for the rich to remain out of the food chain when direct recycling arrives.

A little ketchup with your finger food?

Mueller – Fishing Season Ends?

Democrats will be crazier than normal in coming weeks if Robt. Mueller doesn’t come up with something more spectacular  than what ABC hints at in their “Letter from deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein offers potential road map to special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe – Sources familiar with the probe believe there are no more indictments expected.”

All of which spurs us to a new project when we get away from the gaming tables here:  What is the “shelf life of Trump hate?”

What preservatives will the dems add to it?

Why, even NBC News is (finally) getting around to the idea that you may be disappointed by the Mueller report.  We’ll watch and wait for the NY Times and CBS to join-in.

How does it feel to be a Trump-hating liberal and just pissed-way two years of personal energy that might have been used to better your life instead of going on the national lefty hate-binge?  Easy to swindle fools, we imagine..

We see evidence in 2020 Dem slams Trump’s ‘porn star presidency’ but called Bill Clinton-Paula Jones case ‘frivolous’ that dems have memory issues.  Ask your doctor if symptoms persist.

Short Takes

Fuse check:  “Re-escalation of tension dangerous for India, Pakistan: US official.”

Does this sound like something we’ve been telling you? How Twitter’s algorithm is amplifying extreme political rhetoric…  Since it’s from CNN did anyone think to add management and editors to the distro list?

Non-stop marketing of the transgender business model is on display in “Georgia high school tells transgender student who identifies as male to run for prom queen: report.”

Back to Basic Economics

You know trouble is just ahead for Ure-Up when you see stories like German 10-year yields dive below zero to two and a half year lows as growth fears roil markets.  Or, maybe you don’t know that.

Might explain why Dow futures are down 105 early, though, right?

A Kind Word About Indian Casinos

I think I have mentioned this before, but we have consistently found one of the most enjoyable ways to get out and travel is by visiting Indian casinos.

The one we’re at here in Oklahoma is no except.  Impeccable housekeeping, new property, and the food has been delicious.

When we travel, they give good value for the money and it’s a fraction of the hassle of going on a cruise ship.  Just throw some cloth3es in a bag and go…valet the car and no lines or hassles.  Best rates on Sunday through Thursdays, so we work the calendar a bit.   Pricier on show nights and weekends.

We don’t plan to make any money, although as of this morning, Elaine’s down $10-bucks and I’m up $11.  And that’s after two hours of gambling, Along not far from the I-40 corridor, we like the WinStar in Thackerville, OK, south of 40.  In Lawton, OK, we’re at the Apache Hotel-Casino.

Out in Albuquerque, the Sandia south of town is good,  with Twin Arrows up near Flagstaff another favorite.

Commercial casinos like the Grand and Bellagio  are marvelous in Las Vegas, and the Pepper Mill is old-school marvelous in Reno.  Down the road from there, Seven Feathers near Canyon City Oregon breaks up the Seattle drive when we’re getting out around the country.

One hint:  Ask for a room with a fridge.  There are usually some – people need them for medicine sometimes.  Then have a big meal early and if you can, get a turkey club with cole slaw and stick it in the fridge for a late-night snack.

My “big mission” today?  Recon of the chicken-friend tenderloin  seems like a good starting point.  Elaine sleeps in. while back-home Panama holds down the ranch-end of life.

Now all I need is a big win on a progressive machine… and work on tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report…

More then…

22 thoughts on “Fed to End Rally?”

  1. Given the monetizing of the genders today I’ve wondered how William Forstchen would have changed his “One Second After” series of books if he was writing them today. Haven’t seen a recent video of one of his interviews but I suspect he may have figured that it wasn’t worth it and to let the chips fall where they may. We wouldn’t have been blessed with his work at all. It wasn’t nearly as much of an issue back in the early 2000s as it is today nor was D. C. in such a fine mess as it is today either.

  2. You blew away a few cobwebs today George. Haven’t used chi-square since I used to do calibration of equipment in a nucleonics lab. Outside of professional licensed engineers (who’s license and livelihood depend on getting it right), it appears to me that most people today use statistics to merely support and reinforce their own biases. Truth and reality is frowned on in today’s society. As Benjamin Disraeli said ” There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics”.

    James Johnson, ex-nuke

  3. Having enough native American ancestry (unlike Elizabeth Warren) to be accepted into the Cherokee nation (although Uncle Sam does not recognize such because my ancestors did not sign the Treaty); I am truly glad to see the Indian nations succeed. I am also glad that you mention the joys of your stay at the Indian casinos.

    Back to the Treaty thing. Even if you have the ancestry to be considered worthy of admission into the Cherokee Nation (non voting member), you will not be considered “native American” by the D.C. government unless your ancestors signed either the Eastern or Western Cherokee Treaty. I guess TPTB are afraid someone might claim minority preference on college admissions documents. Oh wait, that would be Senator Warren.

    In any event, enjoy your casino stay.

  4. The linked India-Pakistan re-escalation article states: “The United States has also reached out to influential countries to have them help deescalate the situation, the senior administration official said.”

    “Some of these countries are China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan and Australia.”

    Are US officials convinced that all of these countries will find it in their best national interests to prevent India and Pakistan from engaging in a prolonged conflict?

  5. I watched a YT video by Randall Carlson on sacred geometry and related math facts in which he pointed out that today’s common life span of 72 years is equal to one day in the Great Year. This gave me an “aha!” since that explains the Ancient Wisdom saying that “a lifetime is a day in school for the spirit”.

  6. Funny, we are in Wichita and made about a 100.00 at the slots last night. BTW, you are correct about the Indian casinos.

  7. Bill Clinton was no saint. Paula Jones, Linda Tripp, Juanita Broaddrick and Monica aside…he still is an amateur compared to Trump. Trump has had a trifecta of wives, relationships with 2 real Porn stars, maybe more, 23 sexual misconduct charges by women, dozens of misogynistic comments, walking into the dressing rooms of his Miss Teen and Miss Universe pageants, “because he could”, according to taped conversations with Howard Stern. His Access Hollywood tape would have killed any other candidate. But Trump?

    Yet, my party, the GOP, always seems to deflect this behavior by comparing him to Bill Clinton…or his wife Hillary, who lost and was never President. What happened to two wrongs don’t make a right theory?

    So, calling Trump the Porn Star President is totally fine with me. I hate this goon. It’s a start. I would rather Call him the World Dumbest Human…which is more on point.

    • So he’s a little arrogant. He has that right.. Yet even then his employees feel he’s accessible to them if they have a work or personal issue..
      So he likes sex..even with that .. I haven’t heard any accusations of him being a pedophile or any accusations he’s hung around with known pedophiles.. I don’t agree with treating any woman badly..but that’s a personal issue.

      And with all the years of accusations and hearings trying to soil him.. Not one of those people having to give testimony has committed suicide.. ( oh the horror I have to give testimony on my dear friend.. I just can’t bear it..) and not one investigating him has been mugged and murdered as they head to court..
      As for his sex life and personal issues.. My bet is if anyone dug into any of our lives they would dig something up..
      Just saying..my guess is most men of great wealth and power have a little arrogance about them.. It comes with the territory

      • Anon,
        That’s the most pathetic excuse I have ever heard. If you are referring to pizzagate, that was a debunked hoax. Why do all of you Trump supporters hide his mistakes by pointing out that someone else was worse?

        You know, Trump can only play the victim so many times, before people…even his own people, realize that he is actually the problem. Never in the history of politics has there been a division like there is now. There is a reason for that. Never in the history of American Politics have we had a President with the equivalent of a 3rd grade education running this country. It is so obvious and people are mad as hell. Rex Tillerson had it right. Trump is a moron…and yes, he did say that. Others who also agree.

        “A supreme sexist.”—Barbara Res, former executive vice-president of Trump Organization, who also said “he thinks he’s God.”

        “Like an 11-year-old child”— Steve Bannon.

        The now estranged advisor also allegedly complained that he was “sick of being a wet nurse to a 71-year-old man.”

        Working with Trump is “like trying to figure out what a child wants”—White House deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh

        “The White House has become an adult day care center”—Republican senator Bob Corker of Tennessee

        “Morally unfit to be president,” “unethical” and “untethered to truth”—former FBI director James Comey, who also compared the US president to a mafia boss.

        “Less a person than a collection of terrible traits”—Trump’s former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn.

        Someone who “sucks up and sh*ts down”—former Fox News chief and confidant Roger Ailes.

        There is even a chart…

        Rex Tillerson Secretary of State “a f#*king moron” Pentagon meeting

        Gary Cohen Economic advisor “dumb as sh*t” Email circulating WH

        H R McMaster Nat. security adv. “a dope” Private dinner

        Tom Barrack Friend & supporter “not only crazy, stupid” Conversation with friend

        Gary Cohen Economic advisor “less a person than a collection of terrible traits” Email circulating within the White House

        Gary Cohen Economic advisor “an idiot surrounded by clowns” Email

        H R McMaster Nat. Security Adv. “An idiot [with the intelligence of] a kindergartener” Private dinner

        John Kelly Chief of staff “an idiot” Conversation with Trump

        Sam Nunberg Adviser “he’s an idiot” Live TV

        Steve Mnuchin Sec. of Treasury “an idiot” Unspecified

      • Mark.. I don’t know much about Pizzagate except that it was exposed as false report..

        I was referring to stories like these that keep coming up then hushed up..






        Trump an arrogant man.. absolutely.. ever watched the apprentice.. take a look at the office.. not the subject mater.. see what you see.. pictures.. not of family and friends.. but of him.. that should say a lot..But put the arrogance aside and list the good things.
        I actually think he is the right man for the job because..
        He isn’t a politician.. I think that is why he got the job.. if you ever watch any reruns of the apprentice look at his office..My god the thing is gold leaf LOL.. LOL and the only photo’s that you can see in there are of him..

        he tweets. yup.. and gives you his honest opinion or thought.. I like that rather than some polished politician that is giving you some crap that would choke a horse..

    • Trump maybe a man that likes woman and many of them and loves this country…, BUT he is a lot better then Obama who prefers men..and disses this country every chance he gets especially when he is overseas…..as has been shown.

  8. Totally off-topic, but after seeing this, I thought George should see it ASAP:

    UC Bearcat basketball picking up good vibrations
    It’s not unusual to go early to a basketball game and see players wearing headphones during pre-game warm-ups. Actually, it’s pretty rare to see a young athlete enter an arena without them.

    So, it was odd to hear UC sophomore Trevor Moore ask Bob Mangine (UC Senior Associate AD/Medical Services) where his headphones were one game.

    “You should know,” replied Mangine.

    To be fair, the headphones weren’t Moore’s. And, while they do play music, their chief function is to stimulate the athlete’s brain in a massaging way as they engage in physical activity.

    It began four years ago when Mangine received a pair of the Halo headphones from Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.


    Apparently, the headphones the University of Cincinnati uses also have imbedded light therapy, using a blue halo to accelerate melatonin release, to make the athletes more awake, more aware, and less-sluggish, faster, and a red halo to stimulate thinking and learning…

    Here’s the link to the soon-to-be-available, commercial product:


    • After digging through the *.docs, PR, and public areas at Wright-Patterson and USNSFC, it appears the headphones with the light halos are in dev, so maybe the UC Basketball team are some of the betatesters?

  9. George, Sandia is the casino on the north end of Albuquerque. Isleta is the one on the south end of town. I’m just far enough away from Albuquerque to need a hotel room when I visit, so as a regular visitor to the area about once a month, my favorite is the Route 66 Casino, about 15 miles west of town on I-40. It is one of those places that has everything under one roof, but yet doesn’t feel overwhelmingly large. I used to live in Las Vegas NV, so I know my way around casinos & resorts. In fact I live about 10 miles from the Inn of the Mountain Gods (Mescalero Apach) Resort in southern New Mexico now, so casino dining and shows are a regular event. I agree with you that this is one of the finest ways to travel across the central and southwest USA. Riverwind is my favorite casino in the OKC area, but the Route 66 is my favorite of them all including AZ and NV, mainly because they seem to have the best payback on their machines (IMHO). I think it might have something to do with being west of town and having two large casinos in Albuquerque to compete with, but I’ve always enjoyed my gaming, dining, and overall hotel experience at the Route 66.

    • We loved Rt 66 too – saw a show there a good while back.
      Our only gripe – back when it was new – was the internet srvc was lousy but that we hear it is all good now…amazing that far from ABQ

      And Isleta – not Sandia – my bad in the Friday AM casino fogbank betwixt the ears

    • I was about to clarify the locations of the main casinos near ABQ, but RBI got there first! Regardless, George, at least you did the Un-lax thing instead of the Ex-lax thing. That might have been a real gamble.

      When/if it’s appropriate(maybe in PN), I’d appreciate your opinion on the March 29 PM asset valuation change for banks under Basel III and likely consequences for PMs, if any. There’s lots of rumor and few facts that I can relate to. Thanks – enjoy your weekend!

  10. wow.. this is wild.. we are doing the same thing this weekend.. Heading to a tribal casino Mini Va K.. since the scare a couple of months I am making it a point that we do this once a month now.. screw the costs…. they have a pretty good show going on and great food of course.. cold beer.. and extra stout drinks LOL… the wife will do a little gambling.. and I will enjoy the food beer and show.. ( the pillows suck though.. so I will bring my own..)
    as for the native Americans in America and Canada.. I have often questioned why their rich heritages.. the beliefs legends and the history isn’t taught in our schools.. I think that it most definitely should be..We could learn a lot from their history..( speaking of ancient native american history… I actually have some melon seeds to plant this year from a jar in the Anasazi ruins.. when they found them they were wrapped in a leather pouch.. in a clay jar.. so I am pumped to plant these watermelon seeds.. I love rare plants and a friend that saved a few so he could plant.. he sent me some.. I have some rare bean seeds from a ruins in Turkey to… can’t wait to grow them as well)
    I will never forget as a boy visiting with a man that had been a little boy in one of the camps during the battle of little big horn. his grand daughter and I hit it off and we would sit around him during my break times and listen to the wonderful stories he would tell of boyhood life during those times..( I had a boyhood crush on her.. she was so sweet.. one of the nicest girls I knew. I didn’t associate race relations.. seems I was raised by race blind parents..taught us that there are jerks and Azzholes in all sizes and all races)
    great times and wonderful memories..
    I like that part of the casino’s as well.. you know.. along a wall or two you will see photo’s and a brief history of those in the photo’s.. I personally think they should expand on that.. but heck I am not their decorators.. It is definitely something to be proud of..Share it..

  11. Do yat know why the arabs cut the hand off of a thief? They eat with one hand and wipe their bottom with the other.

  12. George,

    EBM. You taught me that.

    The end of the investigation comes out document dump style on Friday, meaning it’s for cable news consumption only.

    However, since Everything’s a Business Model, and since both sides enjoy the ratings this gives them among their base, they will be continuing the EBM for both sides, I would guess it really doesn’t matter what’s in it, this won’t go away.


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