Fed Facing Calamity – New Data Looms

UrbanS Housekeeping Note:  When we changed to a static IP address last week, we discovered that a number of (long-caching) DNS servers couldn’t cope.  So, if you know anyone who is not getting our updates – we haven’t missed one –  Google how to Flush your DNS cache and try that.  Another reason we have a batch file on our local machines calling CMD to run ipconfig /flushdns as a batch file.  We like fresh...and speaking of which:

Fresh Economic (NFIB) Data

We don’t normally repost a large portion of a “news release.”  It has long been tradition in the failing media to re-write such things in order to have a “unique slant” on things.  Emphasis on “slant” however.

The National Federation of Independent Business outlooks are – in our view – a damn-fine summary of SLE (street-level economics) and frankly, we couldn’t think of a legit reason to re-write what’s already a well-written news release.  It goes like this:

“”Washington, D.C. (June 9, 2020) – The Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.5 points in May to 94.4, a strong improvement from April’s 90.9 reading. Eight of the 10 Index components improved in May and two declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased seven points to 82. Reports of expected business conditions in the next six months increased 5 points to a net 34%, following a 24-point increase in April. Owners are optimistic about future business conditions and expect the recession to be short-lived.

“As states begin to reopen, small businesses continue to navigate the economic landscape rocked by COVID-19 and new government policies,” said NFIB’s Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “It’s still uncertain when consumers will feel comfortable returning to small businesses and begin spending again, but owners are taking the necessary precautions to reopen safely.”

Real sales expectations in the next three months increased 18 points to a net negative 24%. Expectations about future sales are beginning to rebound after April’s lowest reading in survey history of a net negative 42%.

Fifty-two percent reported capital outlays in the last six months. Of those making expenditures, 35% reported spending on new equipment (down one point), 20% acquired vehicles (down one point), and 15% improved or expanded facilities (up two points). Five percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion and 10% spent money for new fixtures and furniture.”

I could change the words around, or run it through SpinnerChief.com…but why bother?

Our Personal Econ Data Points

Since the (to date) all-time high in our Peoplenomics Aggregate Index (Feb. 19) to the market lows in the third week of March, and now back up to what could have been the end of the Wave II bounce Monday, there has been no shortage of local coincident indicators that the economy is still in a “heap-o-shit.”

With the Fed meeting starting today, we offer the following points:

  • There doesn’t seem to be much urgency (nor higher prices) for tree farmers. Honestly, with toilet paper more scarce than an honest politician, we had hopes timber sales off our tree farm would have commanded top dollar.  They didn’t:  $930.85. Lots of chips, this time. One should appreciate that living on a tree farm – as we are evolving ours – involves  more regular, smaller harvests.  Essentially, the idea is to take out enough trees that the property looks like a state park.  The timber company (Roberts Timber, site) effectively becomes our “grounds crew” that pays us…rather than us doing the work.  They feed the mills, we get a park.  What’s not to love?
  • Toilet paper has become available again online.  We’ve found Amazon to be a bit slower and spendier than Walmart.com.  We’re stocked back to “ready for dysentery” levels.  Normal times?  Maybe 6-months worth, 5 if we take too much vitamin C…(ahem…)
  • Meat – especially the good stuff (USDA choice or prime) is still unobtainium out here.  You’d think with all the cows around here…
  • Other groceries?  Except for power tools, we have mostly nothing to spend on and with streaming and Amazon and Netflix, hard to make a case for cable or satellite services unless you are manic about media…

And yes, the garden is doing just fine .  Come August we will start “hatching out” the fall/winter seedlings.  Broc’s and cabbages and celery and…

Fed Staring Down a Barrel

The Fed has been in a “policy box” that has turned into a one-way ride into a box canyon.  If they didn’t piss-away money buying financial instruments, pension funds would be collapsing left and right by now.  Will they try to shoot their way out with negative rates?

Their problem is:  The shoot-out is likely to happen anyway. With rate announcement time tomorrow, there really may be  no right answers.

Raising rates (our pick) would drive stocks down like mad.  But, it would keep real estate going.  On the other hand, lowering rates is an option, as well.

Early Dow Futures were down 282 points when we looked.  Not so much driven by headlines (like “Signs Stock Rally is Doomed to End After $21 Trillion Rebound“) but by the fate of the US dollar.  Whose hegemony is on life-support: “A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming” is an example.

We figure gold, silver, machine tools, and farm goods will hold value – and we hope you picked up armloads of oil futures options at the negative pricing extremes… West Texas is over $38 and Brent is over $40 early.

The “Delivery Generation” Impacts

We like to me miles ahead of trends – and sometimes what we write is so far in advance that its forecast is almost forgotten the reality shows up.

This is the case with our  Peoplenomics report  from June 11, 2016:  Bezos and Bentonville:  Barbarians at the Mall:  These people are turning every phone into a cash register with 2-day shipping and outfits like Federated Department stores should be worried as hell.

I mention this because what we forecast is (to borrow the lyric from Jesus Jones) “Right here, Right now.”  “As Many as 25,000 U.S. Stores May Close in 2020, Mostly in Malls.

What’s Next?

Well, there’s this other Peoplenomics report…February 1, 2020: Survival Prospects:  Rural or Urban? We have a surprise from us “Hicks in the Sticks” – Tech is losing its Urban bias.

You do know low-earth orbit 5G is coming along, right?   The need to live “in a coop” is passing.  Delivery (of everything) is about to rock the old advantages of urban living.  Especially in Communapolis eyeing the end of in-city detached single-family homes.

But ya’ll enjoy “urban collectivization” as promoted by the latter-day Stalinists in left-wing city governments.  Out here, we don’t need to deal with bureaucratic power-trippers to plant, paint, build, or raise whatever the hell we feel like.  We don’t have a chicken count ceiling, either.

Point is? Freedom’s sill alive… sort of.

Some Short Takes?

Yeah, sure, you betcha…

Um…stock futures down 300 now. No, make that down 221.  Fed must have the checkbook open.

Says Fortune, “Morgan Stanley says these four factors could clip the wings on the S&P 500 rally.”  Those and Europe being down more than 2%.

As CV-19 is now roaring in states like Texas, where a lot of people didn’t heed our remarks (CV-19 is a medical problem, not a political problem) we found this interesting: France Pledges 15 Bn Euros For Stricken Aviation Firms.  See the trend?  Defending the old paradigm! Which pisses away national treasuries, but Europeans are mostly socialists, anyway.   And  no  the world cannot afford to do  that.

(Updated CV-19 outlook on  PN tomorrow.)

Passings: Bonnie Pointer, founding member of The Pointer Sisters, dead at 69.”

Business is ‘smokin’ we see in the MJBD which offers a “Chart: Medical marijuana sales in Oklahoma near $300 million in first five months of 2020.”

And keep an eye on “Nut Korea” asNorth Korea says it’s cutting communication channels with South.”  Pre-war gamesmanship?  Are they a China proxy?  Is this “only a test” or a distraction to get us focused on the NorKs while China gets ready to grab Taiwan?  Stay tuned, flash-goggles at the ready, of course.

Say Good-bye to Wave II this week, we think.  And remember, the Fractal Economist’s Thursday circuit-breaker advisory could become real about Thursday of this week.  Once the market fails to hold above the 200 Day average, the round rotator and the brown stuff collide.  And the Fed’s pissed away how much trying to fund their alt. reality ala Zimbabwe?

Is breakfast ready, yet?  A financial Last Supper?

Write when you get rich,


31 thoughts on “Fed Facing Calamity – New Data Looms”

  1. Hi G,

    Yes, when I come to US I have to refresh to get the latest column/comments.

  2. Yep the meat here is short too as the brokers hold it off the market to drive up the price,I read where they want to slaughter 700,000 pigs a week to drive up the price of pork,it seems there are a few million pounds of pork bellies in the warehouses, as China turns to other countries for their pork products,perhaps it would be wise if our so called politicians learned how to negotiate rather then dictate.

  3. Sam’s is well stocked with pork(esp), beef, seafood. Choice and even some prime. All at only slightly higher prices. I guess their supply chain is more the same as restaurants and institutions which puts them in the driver’s seat. Signs still say “one per customer.”

    Don’t be too hard on Mininoplace. News showed the gendarms backing off from rioters and revving up war gear to go after loosely organized, unarmed peaceful protesters full force. If it wasn’t for drug enforcement, most of them would be gone anyway. Expect to get your brains beat out with a daikon in the produce section as they work their way into civilian life. At least groceries are still hiring.

    • hi George I’m using my cell phone and it’s still messing up and has been three days ,the only way I can get it to come through is to go to settings on Firefox and then scroll down till it says ,clear private data.

  4. “Meat – especially the good stuff (USDA choice or prime) is still unobtainium out here. You’d think with all the cows around here…”

    I will never forget the day I was having a pop at the gas station the regular coffee clutch for older guys.. when this man drives up in a fancy car..he was from the big city.. LOL LOL LOL.. the old coots asking.. where ya from.. and hows your visit.. the guy says.. well just came out here to do a little deer hunting.. they said it was really hard as quick as they are..
    the one I got couldn’t even jump over the fence.. everyone looks outside to see a cow strapped across the back of his vehicle.. LOL LOL LOL…
    a friend of mine was going to go hunting two counties away.. the farmer asked where he was from.. he said the local city.. and the farmer said nope can’t hunt on my land.. seems someone from our local city shot his mule thinking it was a mule deer LOL LOL LOL..

    so you could go out DEER Hunting George.. LOL LOL LOL LOL.. or if it has big enough ears.. JACK RABBIT hunting LOL lOL

  5. don’t worry same old thing .. throw a robot a program .. set and forget .. no probs .. debt ? no problem .. no earnings ? no problem. no fixed income ? no problem. no food ? no problem.. no morals ? no problem..

  6. “Nut Korea” as “North Korea says it’s cutting communication channels with South.” Pre-war gamesmanship? Are they a China proxy? Is this “only a test” or a distraction to get us focused on the NorKs while China gets ready to grab Taiwan? Stay tuned, flash-goggles at the ready, of course.”

    Silly Question… IS HE A NUT? Or are the global instigators that will go to any lengths to get what they want without negotiating for it.. now indicating they want what his country has and he is just feeling threatened? I am sure he doesn’t want to have a bunch of dingbats running around raping and pillaging his country to steal what they are not willing to negotiate for..
    looking between the lines.. this looks a little fishy to me…
    when you hear stories about some rich guy paying five grand to anyone starting a violent or damage event during the riots.. has me curious.. what is the end game.. why.. and now NK.. and stories about a possible gatherings to get change.. what doesn’t sound fishy about that.. almost as comical as hearing congress saying we don’t need anyone to regulate us we can do it.. Yea I am sure about that one.. dam I think I just farted another smoke ring…
    and we are to dependent on other places for our essentials.. all while china and russia are sitting back waiting for the federal reserve to make a mistake.. print more.. keep it up.. its ok as long as everyone still believes in the value.. but once you loose that faith it will fall like a rock.. that is my perspective on it..

  7. Supermarkets here in Scottsdale AZ are well stocked with everything except Clorox wipes and rubbing alcohol.

  8. This is NOT investment advice, but if you want to get into the Cannabis sector, might take a look at Canopy Growth Corp (CGC) a Canadian firm the company that makes Corona beer has a majority stake in. The company has had its ups & downs but looks to be leveling off and moving in a positive direction. Yes, I’m invested.

    • I try to invest in companies I believe in, and won’t invest in companies I cannot agree with their policies. I would not try to stop anyone choosng to do so. I don’t invest in tobacco or cannabis or similar products that intentionally designed to have questionable health impact. It will eventually catch up to them with lawsuits and that will inevitable result if any of these companies become very successful. If I cannot recommend the product to friends and family, I try to stay away from directly investing. I of course am probably indirectly invested with some of my fund purchases, but not going to go to crazy lengths to avoid them. I am glad it is legal and available, most of the police brutality, forfeiture laws and government intrusions into our lives have been a result from these endless drug wars.

  9. I have windows 10. I did the dns flush you suggested and still cannot get the current reports.
    Thank you

    • You may need not only to /flushdns but also do an ipconfig /renew

      That will take a couple of seconds.

      Alternatively, consider using your own (specified) DNS server rather than the one your ISP assigns.

      They often have their own DCP assignments and they can cross-ref your account and track you online. Which is why we use an assortment of OPENDNS and Google and NTS and LIGHTSPEED as our DNS servers.

      Gibson Research has a tool (free – Steve’s a great guy!) that let’s you benchmark your ISPs and then use the ones that will give you fastest web services….

  10. Firefox:
    You can reload web page(s) and bypass the cache to refresh possibly outdated or corrupted files.

    1: Hold down the Shift key and left-click the Reload button.
    2: Press “Ctrl + F5” or press “Ctrl + Shift + R” (Windows,Linux)
    3: Press “Command + Shift + R” (Mac)

    • P.S. remember what I said about the end of the world on Web bot forum, the Ace spades thread if my my memory serves me. About what The Dude showed me at the End of this world in my 9th NDE, I remember distinctly saying, “Anyone going into those tunnels they made, will get trapped there when the big Quake happens. They will become a prison for all who are in them. Their will be a great crying out in there and they will be forced to eat each other to survive. ” That was what was shown to me, long before I even knew there was tunnels or what even a element was let alone a vibration. I used to be completely normal back then. Just regular construction worker who just loved Jesus and God. Went to church and wrenched on Hot Rods on my weekends before and after the races. Chased pretty women, worked out with heavy weights, smoked Winston’s, shot guns and said Hell Yeah alot.

      I thought a prophet was old dude in the Bible. I didnt even know what a Muslim was back then let alone a Krystal Sprial. Lol

      A bit of friendly advice,

      So, if you go in those tunnels?? Well, I suggest you bring a bottle of Sweet BabyRay’s Thick and Spicy BBQ sauce for your friends. Since they probably be dining on you after 4 or 5 years.

      Alright! Dues! See ya in the Fall.

      • To answer your question, the reason I sometimes post the same word twice is; it’s a game I play with my memory. Sometimes I leave a word off of what I say and I stack them in my mind. Kinda like a system check. When a word comes up at a predetermined date, I use it twice. I do little games like this to improve my memory. Just like I do other things to improve other areas. Got the concept from playing Majung. Lol. Which is a memory game. I just hold certain tiles for certain dates so I can match them on those dates. Lol

        Later old people. I’m gonna go fetch me a Red head gal with tan long legs and have some fun. Just be a boy for a while. All work and no play makes Andy an asshole. Lol

        Like Montey Python said, “Dont go down there! There is a great white beast with two sharp point fangs. Why its just a little bunny rabbit. Sure that is what they all say. You will see.” And “bring out your dead. Bring out your dead.”
        ** for clarity reasons, your dead is Not a refrence to Mr. Ure or anyone one this site, including me while I’m on vacation.

      • ‘I used to be completely normal back then’…gee, have you noticed on one of your spiritual journeys that addictions (you say you are still doing caffeine and nicotine) cause your spirituality to become static:


        Scroll down to Chapter 2, The 5 precepts; ‘No sexual misconduct, no intoxicants’

        Jesus survived the crucifixion and went to India:

  11. Yo G-

    Shout Out to the hot old Librarian in yesterdays comments – that broad is one sharp cookie.

    1) The ANTIFA Flag is EXACTLY like NAZISM – their flag is almost identical to early N party flags – image of red&black pennants waving on the flag is just Reversed versus original – same Energy

    2) Holding Police back – special order handling – See Gorman and instructions to German Police to leave The Brown Shirts alone – fear, beatings, night raids, voter intimidation. After Adolf and the Boyz took power – they REPLACED the Police with the Brown Shirts.

    3) Soros worked for the Nazis – personally handling cases involving $$$, Asset Stripping, Shipping them off to Work to Death Camps.

    Same Book, Chapters and Verses as NAZISM

    Another down day on the street – and I have NO desire to Buy or Sell anything. Strictly mechanical – my own rules/strategy.

    Coot is long Gold, Silver, Platinum Miners & Streamers – which is Bearish in that the aforementioned tends to drift lower when Market are Rising and PM’s price Unchanged. Long Index Puts, Long Vix Calls – ALL Bearish in Personal account (s)

    Managed $$$/Accounts are 75-80% Invested and riding the Fed fueled space glider. Taking $$$ off the Tops – every other month…Till this week.

    G’s call of Danger Danger Will Robinson Thursday is indeed a Savvy one – looking at a (9) Candle on TD Sequential on Thursday – caution advised – though NOT a Perfected 9/13. Closing down today would be a Reversal candle..so no 9 Thursday in that case..

    I keep thinking about Thermobaric Bombs – The Fed,Corporate Debt and Derivative Book at Deutsche Bank – what a “timerhyme” – ANTIFA/SOROS/DEUTSCHEbank.

    YoAndy – U seeing/feeling/hearing any MOABs floating around out there in Andyville?

  12. Seattle is Down

    George, do you have any “on the ground” info about the area of Seattle that Antifa has sectioned off? Any hope for that place? Or is this more of the business model corresponding with the Digital Mob ™?

  13. “The need to live “in a coop” is passing. Delivery (of everything) is about to rock the old advantages of urban living. ”

    I went to a magnet school in high school, most of my teachers were college professors. I remember my high school econ professor predicting this back in the mid 90’s, when I the internet was still new. It’s taking a bit longer than expected, but we was telling us back then that the internet, with the coming ability to work and buy online, was going to make living in cities an option for the tech savvy upper middle class rather than a requirement. Smart guy, I hope he put his money where his mouth was and bought Amazon stock back then.

  14. Oh yeah George, about the Bigger Barn Idea… I was supposed to remind ya of the dude and the bigger barnes story in the bible. Once he BUIlt them bigger Barnes and got them stuffed full?? He thought he’d rest. The Angel of the Lord came told him it was time to go, yo! Dudes filled his Barnes until the gates were busting at the semes.

    Hmmm…..Another reference to Bill Gates. Hmmmm. Buil gates…Well, if it’s his time, its his time to go. Audios Buil must be soon. Hope he get right with God.

    Right size and Proper perspective. Right action and God Results. Do the next right thing until you become the next right thing. And dont ever hurt a child. God dont like that sh!t. Lol

    See ya later old dude. I’m takin the summer off from G.U. George Universe ity. hahahahahah!

    Be back in the “Fall” I s’pose for my PHD.

  15. Detroit Mayor is talking with the protesters.

    The list of their demands are below. These must be similar to what the demands are in other cities.

    The group released a list of 11 prioritized demands for the meeting:

    Defund and Demilitarize the Police,
    End Project Greenlight and Facial Recognition,
    Drop All Charges and Citations received by protestors,
    Do not carry out eviction orders,
    Drop the uneven citations received by Detroiters during the stay at home order,
    End “consensual” sex between Police Officers and those under custody (Legally define all sex in custody as rape),
    Prosecute and fire any Police Officer involved in police brutality,
    Do not criminalize homeless people,
    Make Detroit A Sanctuary City,
    Create an Independent Office for Disabled Citizens, and
    Restore and maintain running water for all Detroiters.


  16. It’s the IPv4 takeover.

    Too much politically incorrect stuff on Internet 1.0. Shut ‘er down and boot up Internet 2.0.

    It’s just a setting on a router.

  17. Long time subscriber
    You have lost me as of 6-9. Your cache directions don’t work.

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