Been up since the wee’s again. Working on tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report. With already the payoff that I think I now know where “halos” came from in various religions…
Watching the futures prices overnight and early, I was struck by another EXCTRAORDINARILY close hit to a predicted retracement level in our Elliott wave estimation spreadsheet based on the Monday close. See the boxed area:
Which means (as you can see above) we ended Monday 12.18 points off the 75% retracement level from the Wave I lows. Not bad, but very painful if you went short as the more normal .618 retracement.
We never offer “investment advice” but at the moment? Feeling some pain this morning, too. And still wondering if the money-printing crazies (the double dealing, front-running Fed) will be able to puff-up the monetary base enough to deliver a breakout above old highs?
Taiwan Tango: Is 10 1o the Twentieth?
Getting little play here in the bioweapon target zone, a few days ago Taiwan celebrated 10-10. Which is?
“The National Day of the Republic of China, also referred to as Double Ten Day or Double Tenth Day, is a public holiday on 10th of October, now held annually in Taiwan (officially the Republic of China, ROC). It was also celebrated during the ROC rule in mainland China before 1949,”
With premier Xi’s CCP meetings at hand, one has to wonder if a surprise – lightning grab and reunification – with Taiwan wouldn’t be something to be on guard against right now?
“Taiwan’s airspace breached by two Chinese warplanes yet again. My consigliere and I keep wondering whether these sorties are designed to put cycles on defending aircraft in advance in order to sideline them in the event China moves now or, in the eyes of some analysts, more likely 11-months from now over Labor Day next year.
Somewhat alarming, as well, is the report Chinese Military Trained 300 Nurses For Night-Time Island Landing Amid Taiwan Invasion Threat: Report. Nurses giving shots around two-meter high waves and in near total darkness doesn’t sound like anyone’s planning for a breakout of peace any time soon.
Yet, our A.I. tools have spotted the curious use of the word “triangle” which has gone hot, lately. As in “The Taiwan Triangle | The ASEAN Post” and the L.A. Times via Yahoo “Op-Ed: The U.S. is caught in a foreign policy triangle over Taiwan. Here’s how to solve it.
Curious – which gets us to remembering 10 10 or double 10 could mean 20..and that’s tonight, U.S. time.
And because of our concerns that this is a hugely under-rated risk, a certain well-placed source uncloaks a bit in the GLP story WAR with China: Are we closer than we think? – 60 Minutes Australia TV program. He will be adding to it. Check now and then.
All with Wave II complete and in an ideal position for declines.
Oh, and up the road a short piece: North Korea fires submarine-launched ballistic missile into waters off Japan.
Just out from Census:
“Privately-owned housing starts in September 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,555,000. This is 1.6 percent (+/- 11.4%)* below the revised August 2021 estimate of 1,580,000.”
We are expecting the prices to remain astronomical with no other option because the Fed’s monetary base has swelled more than 31 percent in the past year. You can’t have a price decline when the presses are smoking.
Still, there are people mistaking printing for value. Yet if economics teaches us anything, it’s that values are all relative. (And that you can’t eat gold, paper, or digital nothingness. But maybe that’s only taught in grad schools now…)
Stock futures were up 150 after the data. But when the Fed Boss is trading (read “Jerome Powell Sold More Than a Million Dollars of Stock as the Market Was Tanking”) ahead of small investors, you can really see how the fix is in. Love to know how members of Congress fared and whether they had phone calls from the Fed in advance? (Yeah, don’t ask, don’t tell – the standing orders of American media…)
On Powell’s Passing
Great man. Passings are sad. Especially when someone who served the Nation departs.
Despite what the vax-peddlers are pushing, Powell died OF cancer, complicated WITH Covid. He did not – as far as we can infer – die OF covid. His comorbidity killed him. Aided by the ‘rona.
Fin Grab Duck and Cover
Crooked democrats will have to resort to their creeping communism mode. Already visible in the story “Democrats to scale back Treasury’s IRS bank reporting plan amid GOP uproar. This is just (a pack of virtue-clown assholes) re-packaging their bullshit, however, since their plan would “…for accounts with more than $10,000 in annual deposits or withdrawals…” If you’re slow on math, that’s everyone…just rephrased as an “kinder, gentler” end of rights to privacy.
Like other liberal agendas (open border, virtue-signaling theft of Constitutional rights like the @nd Amend.) they will have to roll into gradualism. Eventually, dumbing down America will pay-off for them.
We we don’t claim to be rich (far from it), but this will lead to a tax discussion with our consigliere. Question is “ Hey! Is there any “structuring” law that would put us at risk if Elaine and I wanted to spread between 30 and 40 institutions to get under the wire? None of their business…”
While we pay ALL of our taxes in a timely manner (and pay more than a lot of corporations, in fact) the warnings in the book “Three Felonies A Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent” are being advanced by the lefty digital uprising daily.
The News Disposal
Many topics. Quickly sorted and dispensed:
Check that Blunderer in Chief: State Department’s IG launching investigations into Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal. Theatrics, unless you’re in Kabul. He’ll skate.
It’s Ain’t Medicine: It’s an experimental drug backed the bioweapon liars. Still, Washington State fires its football coach over COVID-19 vaccine mandate. We happen to be getting current on employment law up there…
But if you want something real to worry about, try this on for size: ‘Substantial Slowdown’ Looms Over US Economy Next Year, Goldman Chief Economist Warns. That and a Dartmouth prof says we’re already in a serious recession when you back out all the made-up money and giveaways. When apply reasonable accounting, we’re screwed.
Besides, what the Fed said in the Monday Industrial Production report is we are in a four-year, go-nowhere, economy:
“At 100.0 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in September was 4.6 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 1.0 percentage point in September to 75.2 percent, a rate that is 4.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.”
We seem to have markets in “turn-around” country. But so many people have drunk the Kool-Aid that no telling how long before the fever will break.
Maybe we’ll know more on 10 plus 10 day?
Write when you get rich,