Delusions and Deleriums of Wave II Rallies

In case you weren’t clear on the answer to the question “Has America gone nuts?”  Allow me to lay the answer on you as a simple visual:

As you c an see, we did a major decline from the all-time high of February 19th and we have been doing what in Elliott Wave terms is a great BIG Wave 2.

Funny thing about Wave Two’s:  People tend to be as bullish about outlooks at the tops of two’s as they were at the all-time highs.  Optimism is back, and you can almost feel it in the air.

Still,, the cold-hearted view is less splendiferous.  Indeed, it’s downright depressing.

My son, the firefighter/EMT up in Washington state called last night and yes,  the “runs” of the aid buggies are just about on track to my forecasts. He was more thrilled, though, with getting his third heart attack “save” in a row.  “It’s so rewarding to get that pulse back…”  Beating the Devil is what first-responding is all about.

Then we got into the outlook.  And it’s not particularly good, except that the rate of increase of cases (and deaths) has been slowing somewhat over the past several days.  You can see it in our tracking chart here:

Unfortunately, though, the laws of compounding numbers still apply, just not at such usurious rates.  Just for example, how this compounding stuff works, we had 5.31% more cases Monday than we had Sunday.

On the surface, that sounds pretty good.  Problem, though, is when you compound that rate for a week, it’s a 43.54% weekly rate of rise.  So, as of this morning, with the U.S. reporting 368,449 cases. a reasonable casino bet for a week from now would be 529,240 cases.

Given that the mortality rate is somewhere between 4% and 20%, this means on the low side 21,169 people will be passing on from CV-19 in following weeks.  Or, if the present (Cured + dead divided into dead) mortality rate holds (22.4%) then as many as 118,549  Americans could be dead.  In the coming two or three  weeks.

The death rate is catching up, even now.  The 6.99% one-day increase (Sunday to Monday) leads us to project 60.4% more dead next week.

Wave Two’s are when denial runs strongest.  Of course, everyone who studies investing hears about the Santa Claus Rally going into Christmas, except for that Disaster of the Elves in 2018.

So we’re wondering with Passover starting tomorrow night at sundown, Markets closed for Good Friday and then Easter Sunday whether what’s really at play here is something as simple as “Everyone loves a holiday.”

What Do the Numbers Say?

That’s a harder question.  Around here, we look at some pretty basic economic indicators, one of which is the Association of American Railroads, which has a very useful view of how our underlying economy is fairing through all this:  This part from their April 1 report was especially useful:

Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in March 2020 were 1,835,053, down 9.3 percent, or 187,609 carloads and intermodal units from March 2019.

“In March 2020, 10 of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with March 2019. These included: chemicals, up 5,881 carloads or 4.6 percent; all other carloads, up 2,108 carloads or 9.5 percent; and petroleum & petroleum products, up 1,688 carloads or 3.5 percent. Commodities that saw declines in March 2020 from March 2019 included: coal, down 43,611 carloads or 15.9 percent; motor vehicles & parts, down 11,053 carloads or 15.9 percent; and crushed stone, sand & gravel, down 10,482 carloads or 12 percent.

“Rail traffic numbers confirm that the coronavirus is taking a toll on the economy,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray.  “For example, U.S. carloads of autos and auto parts last week were down 70% from the same week last year as auto production declined to zero and consumer spending has begun to shrink demand. While intermodal volume last week was down year-over-year 14% overall, total movements for the five railroads serving the West Coast ports remained steady for a fifth consecutive week, reinforcing the expectation that we may have seen the bottoming of the Asia-North America trade. However, this week also reminded us that the recent collapse in oil prices is hurting rail shipments of petroleum products, frac sand, and steel products.

“While there remain more unknowns than knowns about the next few months, there are tidbits of encouraging news. For example, year-over-year carloads of grain were up in March for the first time in a year and March was the best month for rail chemical carloads in two years.”

We think this is a good, solid, well-collected data set.  It’s also troubling,. though, at the same time.

Trouble Ahead for P&L’s

The reason has to do with how P&Ls *(profit and loss statements) work.  And here’s the hard reality.  If the sales (pull-though at retail) is down 10%, profits can easily drop to zero and roll over into losses.

(Pardon me while I roll in the whiteboard and huff a couple of hits off the marker pen….. (huffs)……Wow!  All better now!

I’m going to draw a large T on the board.  On the left side of the T we line up what are called variable costs.  Say each of the widgets we’re making has $1.57 worth of hardware in em.  When sales drop 10%, that expense drops 10%, too…since we’re making fewer widgets…buy less hardware…you get the drift.

On the other side of this “T” we’re going to plug in what are essentially fixed costs.   These don’t change, often for  years at a time.  An example of a fixed cost is “the rent” for our widget company.  We have 8,500 square feel and the Landlord doesn’t care if we make one widget here, or a zillion…the rent is due when it’s due.

My humongous salary is a semi-fixed cost:  As long as I’m working, I get paid.  (I’m funny this way…)  Only way to cut these expense is fire George and move the office to a public park. Key’s in lieu of foreclosure time?

Obviously, there’s a lot more to it:  Because even seemingly variable costs hide land mines.  For example, that $1.57 worth of hardware cost is based on  our company (Wiggie International)  buying 35,000 units of it per year.  What the CEO type has to ask is “Where are those cost break points when orders scale back?”

For the example here, we can easily see how.below 30,000 units per year, the cost might jump to $2.12 per unit.  Drop under 20,000 units, and it could pop to $2.96  a copy.  Below 10,000 units the price jumps might be $3.98.

Since we know there’s a 2.3-3.5 times markup to retail, the quantity breaks can really kill sales.  I mean, seriously, who wants to be raising prices right now?  (Well, except the toilet paper companies, lol.)

Seeing how this works?  Just like the rich get richer, the big companies get bigger.  They can throw off cash left and right when times are good and grow market share when times are bad.

As long as a decline in the economy is sensed as “manageable” there’s a huge sense of optimism seen in Wave Two rallies like this.   Free money from Washington!!!  Whee!

Where it gets dicey is when we see how the supply chain holds up, the this part of railroader Gray’s remarks will, I think, eventually dawn on Wall St.  “…auto parts last week were down 70% from the same week last year as auto production declined to zero and consumer spending has begun to shrink demand. ...”

Can we change the paradigm?  (Tears of laughter, roll down my face.  “We can’t even agree on what’s good on TV…or what gender we are…(gasping for air now)…If we can’t even figure out our own factory plumbing, are you shitting me??? Join our Outback Paradigm…???”

After passing out briefly and then recovering from all this jocularity, still doubling over now and again in further fits of tear-strreaming laughter,  Ure host continues trying his dxead-level best to look serious:

Deeper Thinking Section

Sadly, there is no National COVID Prediction Center.  But if there were, this email from a reader would be worthy of at least honorable mention:

“I am a long term subscriber of Peoplenomics and share many of your views. My wife and I live on a farm in rural Tennessee.

I found some interesting reading in the form of a paper titled Regression Approach for Modeling COVID-19 Spread and Its Impact On Stock Market by Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko:


Abstract: The paper studies different regression approaches for modeling COVID-19 spread and its impact on the stock market. The logistic curve model was used with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics of the coronavirus spread. The impact of COVID-19 was studied using regression approach and compared to other crises influence. In practical analytics, it is important to find the maximum of coronavirus cases per day, this point means the estimated half time of coronavirus spread in the region under investigation. The obtained results show that different crises with different reasons have different impact on the same stocks. It is important to analyze their impact separately. Bayesian inference makes it possible to analyze the uncertainty of crisis impacts.”

Click that link and go read the paper for the Conclusions part.

Or, we can just tell you when the “running out of people” comes globally…and we can then mid-point off that:

Obviously, since there are only 7.6 billion, we never get to the 12-billion in July, but here’s the math of it:  If we are going to July 6, then from January 30 that would be how many days?  157 so  half that is 79 and that added to January 30 brings us to the Sunday after Easter.  April 19th.  Deaths will peak about 10-days later, around end of the month.

Oh, people won’t stop dying…but the tide won’t be coming in as fast.

Today being April 7, we ought to compound perhaps around the current daily change rate  (which points to 86 percent more cases in a week than now, so using today’s cases, by then could be today 368,449 times 1.86 = 685,315 cases at mid-point.  Aporil 19th-ish.

We don’t know if viruses can read, because obviously can’t:  I can’t find anywhere it says “disease spread and decline is symetrical.   We hope they read is somewhere, though.

If we get a mirror on the decline, that would lead to 1.37-million cases and 274-thousand dead.

Just as a dart, toss, mind you.  We’re starting to watch the downtick in daily change rates with some interest. But is this sufficient for an EPR?  (Easter-Passover Rally)?

Hell no.

But markets – and those who play them – are irrational.  Like you didn’t know…

Lying Politicians & Lying Media Dept.

The left-wing media is still trying to pin something on Donald Trump.  Take for example CNN‘s piece (masquerading, we think as) “Analysis: Trump lashes out when confronted with critiques.  Jesus-lord.  Give it a frickin rest.  We’re going into a Depression and they want to hang Hoover.  Worry about whether Cuomo reprises Roosevelt…that’ll keep you up nights.

Sadly, we know why Derangement Harangues will continue, though because (look surprised here) ad revenue is falling.  Everything is a Business Model, right?  Search Engine Land was reporting a month ago that “Coronavirus disrupts search, digital ad budgets.”  It’s heere.;…

What we therefore expect is ever-more shrill attacks on Trump (or anything else pressing a yellow journalism/emotional hot button) in order to hold onto revenue in hopes some other network will die first.  (Another fit of laughter at the absurdity of it all possesses Ure host…)

Even the “wire services” like Reuters are going backwards to mid January to second-guess and slam the Trump administration in stories like “As Trump administration debated travel restrictions, thousands streamed in from China.” In a way, it keeps TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) alive.  But in wasting time even clicking on such stories, TDS victims are doing a “Bernie” – getting it wrong not once, but twice.

Like I said, give it a rest.    Two-day old story made it to Drudge today, which is disappointing, as well.  OK, maybe suspect, then.

Of course, the politicians are pandering to the weak of mind, talking about a second round of aid that could top a trillion dollars.  Not that you need any further proof of the corporate-government merger in America, did you happen to notice how private equity firms are lobbying for a piece of the stimulus measures?  Fine example of “Pricks over Peons” – or, another Bernie-fication.

This will be the stuff driving us into Zimbabwe Lite (or Weimar Lite, if you prefer) when the chickens come home to roost.  Hopeflully (sic) without Bird Flu, lol.

Have to admit, though, I woke up from a terrible nightmare this morning: m Nancy Pelosi being sworn-in.  Awful nightmare.

Inspection Stations are coming back: Texas sets up state border checkpoints to control coronavirus cases.

Around the Ranch

We are not the only ones cutting up cardboard to grow some of our own “food insurance!”  A reader sent in a picture of his handiwork and it looks great!

Gun safe boxes!!! I love it.  Here’s the backstory:

“You mentioned the cardboard garden a few weeks ago. I latched on to the idea, but was working on a raised cedar bed, so I was giving thought to how I was going to get the cardboard. My son is in boxing, he still has cardio workouts outside with no equipment where they keep distance of 6 feet. Its in an industrial park.
This last Friday I made him go even though it was 40 degrees outside. I walk as he does the cardio, and I was walking up by other buildings and I saw people in the trash cans. I was curious what they were looking for/getting, but keep with my walking routine. After my sons workout, I drove by it and I saw huge cardboard boxes.. that were from gun safes. I pulled three out of the trash and put them in my truck. I also found PVC pipe and grabbed that as well. Next day, I laid the cardboard on the side of the house and was going to get dirt sacs, but one of my friends suggested looking at the nursery’s. Sure enough they were open. So I grabbed a yard of dirt and put that down. The two attached pictures is all for corn/watermelon/cantaloupe.

The neat thing about this is this is one of the few times I am doing something without constraints. I am ALWAYS the guy that believes in prepping for the project… meaning till the soil, get good soil (like squarefoot garden book) , get fertilizer, get this… etc. I literally read your idea, did some Google foo, put thought into that I wanted to make it happen, universe provided easily and I just had to do the work….”

Yep…move as you “are called” and everything works out great – just as the Great Engineer designed it.

Last night I made one of the best pot roasts of my life.  Gluten free (oat flour) gravy and it was totally delish.  Wish they all came out so good.

Speaking of which, it’s time to meander off to the kitchen and see what management has on tap for the day… Dow futures are up 808 – hand me the crack pipe on the way by, would’ja?

Write when you get rich solvent,.

70 thoughts on “Delusions and Deleriums of Wave II Rallies”

  1. Looking at death rates for various countries on this BBC site . . .

    . . . I noticed New Zealand is repoting 1,160 cases with only 1 death. No wonder all the billionaire elites purchased get-away estates in that isolated island nation.

    The U.S. has a 2.98% death rate, while the U.K. Has a 10.41% death rate reported so far. Italy has a very high mortality rate @ 12.46%. While China is reporting only a 4% death rate, it may be reasonable to assume that the most populous nation on the planet is under-reporting.

    • The BBC also reported last week that, “At present in the US, any death of a Covid-19 patient, no matter what the physician believes to be the direct cause, is counted for public reporting as a Covid-19 death.”

    • The Solution (Cure) to COVID-19 is profoundly simple, inexpensive, and available to everyone. Unfortunately, a large part of the $2+ Trillion in Stimulus is used to aggressively keep these answers out of the public domain.

      For example, I couldn’t create more confusion in the scenario if I was a paid Deception Officer who’s mission was to confuse, distort, deceive, and at all costs hide the Truth from the public with conflicting statistics and media reports. Oh wait…

      In order to solve the problem, you have to accurately define it. Here’s one way to burn through the stats and misdirection, in order to provide clarity.

      FIRST The most important question is this: Take 100 Patients that get infected TODAY, and track them until they get well or die. Only tracking those 100, the answer of how many will die is approximately 20 (20%). It ranges from 19-41%, depending on a few demographics. For subscribers, George shows it on April 4th as a Technical Mortality rate of 19-20%. will show it as a Closed Mortality rate of 21%. Look at the upper right box under “Closed Cases.”

      Elsewhere, it was 41% on March 27th:

      SECOND Track the Flu fatality rate separate from the Bioweapon fatality rate. Two different kill vectors here, so the most accurate way to separate them would be of course to do it with medical based forensic evidence. However, TPTB refuse to acknowledge there is a bioweapon component. (They can’t without starting WW III and AmRev 2.) Since that’s a built in and intentional distortion, let’s estimate to get a really good idea. For example, take everyone that dies in less than 8 days and classify that as Flu. Everyone else will be tagged as “bioweapon.” No worries, this part of the analysis doesn’t really matter. It is simply to give you a warm fuzzy, that you can later go back and compare treatment notes, to see if the Cure protocols work for both the flu and the bioweapon. Hint: They do!

      THIRD Get past the ever so rigidly enforced Narrative that a “Cure” can ONLY come from the government licensed medical doctors. Even now, there is a nonchalant expression often repeated in government and media that subliminally reinforces the Narrative: “We don’t yet have a vaccine developed, therefore there is no Cure.” Horsefeathers! There was a vaccine (patented) before the pandemic was launched, but that is another part of the Narrative, where they will dangle the vaccine in front of us when the death numbers get to a certain pre-determined fear point. I’m getting ahead of myself here. The ever so critical Truth to take away from OBSERVATION (ie real data) is that there are three primary scenarios to Cure COVID-19 in play.

      1) Government approved Vaccine(s) and Prescription Drugs.
      2) Hydroxychloroquine, Z-Pak, and Zinc
      3) Vitamin C (IV or Lypospheric) with supporting roles from Nutritional Supplements, such as Chaga Mushrooms, Selenium, Monolaurin, C60, and other vitamins.

      FOURTH Analyze & run the Stats on the 3 scenarios SEPARATELY. What you’ll find is utter crap from the first scenario, because all of the different components are merged, giving you useless information. For example, early on all the fatalities were Asians because of the bioweapon’s affinity for the ACE2 receptors. The Trolls shouted “Asians are going to die!” Then the pandemic shifted overseas to the remaining 194 nations, and the soda straw type of scrutiny revealed the initial wave of “FLU” fatalities were from elderly and people with compromised immune systems. The Trolls shouted “Old folks are going to die!” Sigh… Now we are at the point where the “BIOWEAPON” fatalities are showing up, but all the data is merged and crunched as a single number, where the fatalities from those original 100 patients are mixed with infection & fatality numbers from today. The Trolls shout “COVID-19 is not as bad as influenza!” or “Young people are dying too!” Sigh…

      Continuing with our fourth level analysis, we find very interesting answers to the remaining two scenarios. # 2) Hydroxychloroquine (with Z-Pak, and Zinc): has a 100% CURE RATE. Zero fatalities, and zero people need to be intubated and go the ventilator route. # 3) Vitamin C: also has a 100% CURE RATE with zero fatalities and zero people needing to be intubated and go the ventilator route.

      And the Trolls say what? “War Crimes Tribunal for President Trump for recommending Hydroxychloroquine!” (Ohio State Rep. Tavia Galonski…)

      FIFTH Now that you know a Cure is available through two scenarios, you can separate out the remaining metrics and run accurate statistics. Then you’ll KNOW the Infection Rates, CFR (20%), and all the other pertinent ways to characterize COVID-19. From that point it is easier to solve the problem – and do so without starting a war, crashing the stock markets, laying off one third of the country, running out of toilet paper, or destroying the global supply chain (etc). And then you can laugh when the government dangles the vaccine as the savior of mankind! Then duck & cover when the sun rises from the west.

      CONCLUSION: If you drink the Allopathic Koolaid, you are going to get COVID-19 with near 100% certainty, simply because you are going to be taken to the hospital, where all the sick people are. Then you’ll get on the conveyor and head towards the ventilator, where your odds of dying are pretty close to triple digits.

      Or you can think critically, grab about $60 worth of supplements to Prevent getting tagged by a combined virus and bioweapon. If you miss that gate, then pony up about $200 for Vitamin C by IV and proceed from there with a Cure. Lypospheric will also do the trick – once you get to bowel tolerance. Probably 12-25 grams for most people.

      What to do about the tsunami of information showing it is a hoax and all those other equally bizarre claims? Honestly, it doesn’t matter if it is real or a hoax, as the government ACTIONS are driving the train. They have a business plan to accomplish certain goals, and COVID-19 was just a convenient way to introduce the business plan. It will continue regardless of public awareness, just in different forums and at times different speeds. Might as well practice the duck & cover maneuver (new aerobics?) and load up on some CBRN PPE to go with your toilet paper and Vitamin C.

      Food is the next psyop to go with pandemic, so beat the rush. Likewise, China will probably have an answer for us on what they think of our “Bio-Trade Agreement” . My old retired military brain can’t turn off the idea that we took out their New Year’s celebration. Consequently, if they wanted to return the favor they would probably do so during this Easter/Passover time of the year. No doubt TPTB Trolls will incorporate those developments into their business plan, and shout appropriate comments to support the Narrative.

      Boris? Has anybody seen Boris today? I heard he was in the ICU, and getting near a ventilator…

      My apologies for the length. I just wanted to say it once. I have all the links & research to support my analysis, but that would just about double the length. Available by request in a short PDF along with the cure protocols – if anybody is interested.

      • RBI, great post, I have known about the vit. c cure also, but you will not here a peep from PTB about it. Question, where is intravenous vit.c and an iv set available? I have sterile water for injection.

      • I hadn’t hardly gotten started reading and everything I was reading vanished. Leaving me with a bunch of crap to read.
        Not that my knowing the specifics meant anything except satisfying my curiosity.
        I was curious why no one brought out that vaccine that was patented.. and now with the mutations taking place.. and that its actually infecting people that I would assume are invited in the bunkers.
        The news this evening said china is going back to will be coming shortly..

      • Unless the release could be because the actual plan was to reduce the population.. if George’s predictions are correct it would successfully reduce the planets population to a point where the planet can sustain the population. Destroy the economy opening the doors to the next new ponzu scheme

      • Hi RBI,
        I would like to see the info you have as it lines up with what I believe to be true. Thanks.

      • Zinc..
        Dam and to think marijuana seeds ground into a flour is high in zinc and other disease fighting nutrients.

        So a slice of bread made from flour ground from marijuana seeds with elderberry jam and a glass of orange juice.

      • The word is already out no zinc or selenium in any of the stores Wal-Mart, Drug Mart, Walgreens CVS. The curve should flatten out soon. BACK TO WORK, BY THE END OF MONTH

      • RBI,
        Thanks for your thorough analysis and comments on the Covid-19 situation. I just wanted to double-check on one of the Vitamin C doses you said could be used for treatment. You described a “lipospheric” Vit. C and I’m assuming that you’re talking about ‘liposomal’ Vitamin C.

        Liposomal Vitamin C is a lipid encapsulated Vitamin C dosage form in capsules that provides about 4X the bioavailability of Vitamin C as unencapsulated Vitamin C produced as capsules, tablets or chewable tablets. Taking 1000 mg of liposomal Vitamin C would result in about 800 mg of Vitamin C being absorbed. Taking 1000 mg of non-liposomal Vitamin C would result in only 200 mg being absorbed. The lipid encapsulation of the liposomal product increases the absorption of Vitamin C through the intestinal cell membranes.

        Therefore, taking liposomal Vitamin C will allow one to achieve higher absorbed doses by taking smaller total amounts.

      • Hi, RBI; I am interested, please send to: furthercomments(at symbol)

        And any information of where to purchase the lypospheric as it appears to be sold out.

        What is CBRN PPE?

        Thank you.

      • Liposomal C is almost unobtainable, although you are supposed to be able to make your own with an ultrasonic cleaner and a handful of ingredients.

  2. The futures are up $800 plus. All us folks out here in flyover country are buying stock with our Govment checks that we might get in the next couple months. It just doesn’t get any better than this.

    • @ oldfarmboy

      ALL Paper goes to zero…ONLY gold and silver will be in your hand and you will not use it to wipe your but…that’s what your stocks will be for…that’s just my opinion…BUT think about this…what the government gives you..IT will also take away from you that what it gives…..and IT is never a zero sum gain…ONLY they get more in return than you get to keep..that is History…

  3. Hell yeah! I’m still looking for a job. Lol. Lobe the garden prep work. I am getting another tooth pulled and 2 more root canals and crowns done tomorrow. super excited about that! Not!

    I have 2 more months in the desert. Not sure what to do after that. Hopefully find some sorta work by then. Even if its pulling weeds. Lol. Maybe I will start my own company so I can lobby for some free money?

    Do astrology peeps count comets? I mean Atlas is t times bigger than Jupiter. That is where Zeus is. Evey is Saturn this and Saturn that. Hey Saturn! Say hello to my friend Atlas! He eats little planets like you for lunch. Hahahahahahhaha! If Atlas hit the Sun??? I think the Global warming perps uhem peeps would be outside reving the Diesel trucks trying to get as much black smoke as they could out of them stacks. hahahahha

    Moon boots and bunny boots definitely would come back in fashion in a big way. Hahahha

    Sell, off to meditate and see what I see.

    Have a good day. Ray, I will email ya. Maybe make a road trip to NM what the hell else am I gonna do? There is Nothing going on. I think you are only 12 hour drive away. Come over friday afternoon and come back Monday morning.

    • Andy: If I be you, I would go back to the Union Truck Driving gig. This is not the time to be a free spirit. Hell is coming our way. Plus cash is what gives you the power to expand yourself. Good Lock.

      • I moved and am on the List NC. Nobody is hiring right now. Nobody. I cant work anyway for 2 more months doing that. Nobody is going out of the Hall dude. Lol

        I may not go back to driving Truck anyway. I’m tryin to be open to something new.

        Fyi: I’m not a long hauler. I’m a heavy hall construction driver. Side dumps, Belly Dumps, end dumps, water trucks, pimp tricks, Truck and Pup, transfer trucks. Not a garbage truck driver. Those are called “garbage trucks” NOT Dump Trucks. Construction Dumptruck driving is working within a 100 mile radius of the yard. Long haul or pavement pounders aka Pavement pilots run long distance.

        You cant even get a job at a moving company right now.

        Shipping is way down and the can/long haulers aren’t even hiring.

        Ya see, digging Holes for foundations on Amazon, Google, Micosoft, yada yada is not “essential personnel” incase ya missed it. Nor is digging holes for apartment and Condo buildings. All Government projects are shut down threw End of August.

        Yeah, I know Trump said yada yada yada and the Governers said yada yada yada but I’m telling ya that the Union Halls are saying, no work till the end of August for now. They don’t want people out on the road.

        I can “can” haul or transport cars. I’m tired of driving to be honest. Im looking to try something different. I have a computer degree and I can sell stuff really well. I have even thought of running equipment for the Operators union.

        If I cant find anything else soon???? I dont know what I’m gonna do. I had a couple offers to have sex for money. I’m not even kidding. Lots of very wealthy old women here in this area. Hahahahah!

        Fyi: I have driven over 4 million miles. Just in big rigs.

        Idk. I’m asking eveyone and looking for something new.

        I’m super teachable. So if ya know anyone looking for an out of the box thinker, with slight celebrity status at Urban Survival?? You send them my way. I know alot about religion, history, computers, conspiracy, I am a decent salesman, know alot about the Stockmarket, I got a million stories, pretty good listner, I’m ok with the ladies, relatively handsome, I know how to pluck a chicken and shuck corn, chop wood, swing and salsa dance, I’m really good at picking my nose scratching my ass and figuring out how stuff works. I naturally smell like snicker doodle cookies. I’m a Leo and I like long walks on beaches. I ain’t afraid of spiders. No matter their size. I will swish them without hesitation and remorse. I ain’t afraid to get dirty and I clean up pretty well. I’m told I have an amazing radio voice and I’m pretty good with my hands. Im not a racist,homophone, or bigger. But I’m willing to learn. ,Ohhhhh and I dont die. *shrugs. You send them my way if they have a job. I do windows and clean toilets as well.

      • N.C. cash is a tool. No different than a #2 Phillips screw driver, a 10 mil socket , a .44 magnum, a car, a key, a mirror, a plane, a plain, a dimension or a planet.

        They are just tools. Even the tool of Prayer is more about the person praying then it is about the one being prayed too.

        For God speaks Japanese to the Japanese, math to mathematics, theater to the actor, pigmeamese to the pigme, ruthem and beats to the drum circle and molecules solutions and dilutions to the chemist, planets and stars to the Astrologer and words, adverbs and adjectives to the writers and readers, beats and tones to the musicians.

        Prayer is the ritual of talking to “God” and meditation is the act of “listening” . I try really hard to listen alot more than I pray. I pray bunches for others and spend not so much time asking for myself. The I need only recieve.

        I totally respect your opinion and at 90 years old, you definitely know way more than me. I appreciate you and respect you opinion greatly.

        I have a video for ya.

        See ya around old dude. I think you are the oldest on this here site.

      • I thought you said you were 90 years old. Someone said they were 90.


        Maybe it was Bolsovick?

        I was thinking, wow! That dude has some experience.

      • I been a good little Drone worker bee for 20 years now, raised kids, chickens, cats and Dogs. I’m looking for a new place to plant some roots and start new. I’m gonna email the Hopi today. Apply for a few jobs too.

    • Andy,

      I recommend you DON’T Get a Root Canal (or two) until you watch the first 9 minutes of the movie “Root Cause.” My experience was about 98% identical, so the first few minutes could serve as a bio for me. Here is the trailer:

      You are a “Heavy Haul Construction Driver?” Gallows humor, but hauling body bags to the Crematorium might be showing an uptick this week…

      I think there will be some gardening opportunities up here on the mountain soon (few weeks till grow season). Not sure of the food growing dynamics this year, as my expectations are for some sort of a chemical response from China, which might preclude outdoor growing.

      The Business Model we are dealing with seems to have various themes they are stepping through, and in a certain order. COVID-19 was targeted at the air we breathe, with economic and banking side effects. A Chemical response would be primarily targeted at the water we drink and use for growing food, and would speed up the process of getting rid of cash. But, that’s just an observation and not yet a forecast. No worries, around here we have a greenhouse and have already worked through the bugs of growing fruit bearing vegetables indoors with LED grow lights.

      With your computer skill set and “snicker doodle cookie” smell, there’s a couple of old geezers in my neighborhood that could at least use you for a couple of days if/when you pass through. Maybe a week if you can fabricate & weld too.

      Here’s something else you might be able to get a credible answer for, when nobody else can: Why did the Presidential Seal and US Flag (to the speaker’s left) disappear around mid-March? Nobody’s seen it since, and inquiring minds would like to know. Symbology has always been extremely important to the … Business Owners, consequently the lack thereof seems to be even more important.

      • They removed the presidential seal and flag durring times of war. Just like you dont wear identifiers like “captain and general ” out on the battle field because that is what snipers look for shoot at. They dont shoot at “private’s and corporals” when you have a full bird colonel standing there with his identifying emblems.

        I can weld, fabricate, all that. Tig, mig, arch and braze. I can braze copper pretty good. When I was 11 years old I built a chevt small block 400 from the block up. Ran like a top. My step Dad was Sprint car driver for over 30 years. I also have had many many hot rods. I know absolutely evrrything their is to know about 1967 to 1973 Chevy pick ups. I have owned 8 of them. I built alot of stroker 383’s. Traded an ex-fiance’s engagement ring for a 505 hp Strocker motor my buddies and I affection called “the green monster” because I painted it “grabber green” and we dropped it in a 1970 C10, with 700R4 and Ran 411 posi reared. Ran 3 inch flowmasters off Hooker Headers. Slapped 15 wide black Daytona’s. On the back and 10 inch wide on the front. Slapped on a set of Good year slicks and grooved in 2 lines to be legal. (You have to have 2 tread lines to be legal on the road. ) the cam was bad ass that when it said at idle the good would waffle about an inch and a half. Just sitting there from the Holly Street Avenger in 870 just suckin in air. Hahahaha. Remounted the fule tank where the Spare tire is usually located. Puff canned the whole truck with primer black, then used a light steel wool to give it a suede look, then puff canned the whole truck with 3 coats of clear. Looked like black suede.

        We called it The Sultan. From that song. “The Sultans of Swing.” Dired straights. Which was funny because I thought the song said, “Sultans of suede.” Hahaha but it stuck. It’s was fun truck.

        I could lay track of black for 2 city blocks. Hahahaha.

        She should have never gave me that ring back. I told her I wasnt gonna ask again. I traded that platinum 1.5 carrot ring for that motor to a nascar guy. Hahaha. You should have seen the look on her face when she came over a month later and said wow! Where did ya get the money for that??!! My buddy looks up from the motor and says prettiest damn engagement ring I have ever seen. She looked at me and I said, told ya I wasnt gonna ask ya more than once. She got in her car and left and I didnt see her again for 5 years. Hahahaha!

        In case your wondering. The rear tail light bulb on a 1967 chevy pick up is an 11 72.


      • Uhem. The hood would waffle. That cam would just chug. I like Cheetah pro-ratchet shifters. Just a preference . Yes we ran Roller rockers and all that. The Holly Street Avenger itace and carberator is bad ass. I dont mess with edlebrock their stuff is crap. Always having to mess with it. MSD ingnitions are what I like best. Yes, I used to have Year one and Jegs on speed dial on my phone. Hahahha

  4. For Thee but not for Me Dept.

    Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is being pilloried for getting a haircut while the rest of her constituents await the Broadway revival of Hair.

  5. If hell doesn’t come our way virus wise in the next 2 weeks, as Trump & his cohorts say, Trump is part of the problem folks to take over this country. He is still under suspicion by me over his doing nothing on immigration & the infrastructure during his first 2 years with a Republican Senate & House. Look at the Trumpster’s business record, he will protect himself first if the Deep State gets nasty. Don’t fool yourself people, Donald is for the Donald, when the SHTF.

    • “Don’t fool yourself people, Donald is for the Donald, when the SHTF.”

      I, for one, consider this natural, because ALL leaders thru out history were in it for themselves ;-) why else???????????

  6. Alright. have a great day. I’m going to actually meditate and work out. Ya’ll come back now y hear.

  7. I envy you guys who can trade.. “…and chicks for free.”

    Thinking the next wave down will be a big C…. and Trump mentioned Easter in one of the presentations. Most likely the reset/NWO will launch Friday.

    • George,
      -The big story of course is Navarro writing to Trump [ REDACTED: What part of no more blame-game political bullshit wasn’t clear??? – G]

  8. Thank you, NC, for proving once again, Ure’s point on TDS. OMG you people! When in your lifetime have you had a president come out during a crisis of any kind and speak to the people and with the media (fake or not) every day during said crisis, for hours?
    When in your lifetime have you had a president that consistently put America first and was doing his best to help Americans on all levels? When the SHTF Obama bowed to all our enemies and asked for their forgiveness, Bush tried but didn’t get the job completely done, Clinton was more worried about a blow job than his own job as president and Old man Bush stopped, when he could have removed a scourge. Reagan was the last president that spoke with and to the people and bypassed the press. Carter was so far over his head that he dithered and told us of the new normal! Wait….Carter told of us the new normal; Clinton told us of a new normal and Obama said we needed to understand the new normal. And you want to rail on Trump? Thanks NC you and others like you prove Ure right quite consistently!!

    • All I am saying is Trump has to be watched closely. He is agrivating the Dems, so he is doing something right. I support him as President & always have. Although, I am not naive enough to think that Trump is my friend.

      •  “I am not naive enough to think that Trump is my friend”

        Nope he ain’t hes l I’ll ke everyone else and wants to make money.. he did at some point realize that keeping employees and keeping them by looking out for their needs saved him money in the long run.
        I do believe hes trying to do the right thing..keeping america strong and stabilizing the dollar world keep his finances stable. The look at few weeks has had to be an eye opener for everyone.
        As my friend in DC said..I never would have guessed that I would need a gun to protect my toilet paper…
        You can use it as trade today.. make money on it..
        I got a bunch of tubes lotion bottles.. my grandkids and I are going to make hand sanitizer to give to the store. Fire and police to hand out to anyone needing one

  9. G,
    When you extricate Ure cranium from fauci’s arse – might start considering Ure market commentary again.

    Unfortunately Faith in markets is slowly dying – just like UST and USD – ALL hollowed out – FAKE anymore..too bad.

    Just buy the LQD along with the FED – no research needed.

    ” I drew a line
    I drew a line for Ure
    Oh what a thing U do
    And it was ALL Yellow” -Coldplay

    COVID19 – weakest of the 7 serious Flu’s /Diseases(west nile,SARS,BirdFlu,SwineFlu,Ebola,Zika)

    This year Flu has killed 22,000 Americans = perspective.

    *Only patients with the worst symptoms Tested for COVID19- due limited testing.

    ITALY – – 99% of COVID19 deaths – had other Underlying conditions. Italy’s National Institute of Health shows 88% of Alleged Deaths are Mich-Attributed.

    Overall DEATH Rate for USA 2020 is where ? Trending Where?

    If Ure was being HONEST..Where is the Death Attributed to Pneumonia 2020 Chart ?

    U dont seem to be including those Eye Popping numbers in Ure Fear Porn tables/charts. hmmm

    Where is the on the ground reports from GU2 about ALL the COVID19 cases they have?

    Crematoriums working overtime no doubt – have they gone to digging mass graves yet?


    – funny route BTC taking to ZERO, no?

    Got Hydroxychloroquine – didnt think so – No BITCOIN 4 U either!

    • Bitcoin is not a Currency, it is a Crypto, so it can be taken from you according to the rules, for whatever reason the powers to be want to use. No recourse 4 U.

  10. George did you do anything special to have that pot roast come out so good? Just wondering because I like eating really good pot roast. :)

    • Gene….

      Try two tablespoons of balsamic salad dressing along with a tsp of kitchen bouquet browning sauce… I toss onions in to but that’s totally personal choice… slow cook it. Or pressure cook it with an insta pot..
      I prefer slow cook.. toss it in frozen when you go to bed or leave for work on low let it cook till you get home from work or eat it lunch.

      Give it a try and let us know what you think.. the first time someone suggested it I thought .. you have to be kidding.. now it’s the only way we do it..

      • Elaine likes to pan fry the roast to develop a more natural roux when cooking. Tioy can use a tbsp. of Bragg’s vinegar, but you’ll like the flabor a L)T mopre if you toss in a shake or three of Italian herbs and a 14-1/2 tspn of rosemary while it cooks.
        Buddy Jeff called and he did the sou vede bag for 30-hours and then charred up to finish and said it, too was TDF

      • Dam I am going to try that George… I love Braggs vinegar.. it is one of my favorites.. I use a thirty two ounce bottle of that a week just drinking it in the evening( as much as I do lemonaide.. one shot of braggs half glass of water and the other half of sweet apple cider or apple manzanta a sprig or leaf of the setiva plant.. ice..

        I have the sous vide.. I have only used it for soft boiled eggs.. but totally want to try it with steaks..

  11. Take a trip in the time machine with TBN, and go back to 2010.

    There we find a science publication..PLoS Pathogen Journal,Vol6, Issue11 -2010..

    Study results/findings ..”that a combination of the trace mineral Zinc, plus a transport molecule (Ionophore) that facilitates Zincs entry into cells efficiently impairs the replication of RNA Viruses”, like COVID19, “to effect a Cure”.

    Chloroquine = Zinc Ionophore

    Zinc alone only reduced viral replication 50% due to lack of Solubility. Viruses are intercellular parasites that hijack cellular processes to replicate virus genetic material.

    Back to present in our time machine..

    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko – New York based Physician treated 699 consecutive COVID19 coronavirus cases with 100% success. His treatment includes Oral Zinc, Chloroquine as Zinc Ionophore, and Zpack antibiotic. – youtube

    * Reason Fauci, Medical Industry, Mr Narrator pumping the FEAR – threatening their Vaccine- Business Models..$$BBBillions..

    “ooohh noo were all going to DIE!”

    “Need To Track Them
    Need To Badge them Clear
    Need to take Their Guns
    Too Dangerous To Vote – Must have drop box/Mail In Voting”

    What Chu Soo afraid of ?

    Have No Fear – Bitcoin is Here!

    • “Have No Fear – Bitcoin is Here!”

      You know.. I get a serious chuckle out of bitcoin.. because it’s less than a juicy fart on the wind. A mere imaginary fragment an illusion ..


      What if..the covid19 pandemic is the opening for them to implement bitcoin th o save the crumbling dollar.. hands free no printing or coin making just a number floating in cyberspace.

      Wouldn’t that be the cake.. and to have had you telling us to partake of the mythical coins fb floating in cyberspace all this time..

      As of yet lindo dollars can be used more than bitcoin .. but hey we are in life changing times here who knows what the future holds for us.

  12. Today’s mess is a direct result of us gorging ourselves on all the cheap Chineese goods being sold by Wal-Mart during the 1990’s. We had great prosperity in the 90’s & an endless supply of cheap goods at Wal-Mart. We became the guardian of the great unwashed at home. We are now paying the price & the rest of the world wants to see us fail. They have had enough of us & continue to assault our borders to weaken our constitutional form of government. They want to take over the gravy boat & they are winning. That is why we need Trump. He knows this is happening, but can he stop it alone. Even Trump can’t help a population hell bent on destroying themselves. Give us more Kool Aid they shout. You can fool most of the people most of the time…except Trump proved this wrong in 2016 & sent the swamp in shock. Can it last, no one in power is on the Trumpster’s side. Answer: No

    • Oddly or not Trump has done more to advance Bernie Sanders Socialist agenda more than Bernie could have done if elected – as Jim Grant states the other day the Federal Reserve has just engineered the LBO of America- bleet on sheep – oh look over there – the virus. More die in Tennessee from suicide than the virus – the country has been hijacked by the New World Order.

  13. 2s and 4s are the toughest waves. Anyway George tried to help as always. That Fibonacci bloke is handy and dry ammo to invest. Never ever be greedy. It is worse than fear. Patience costs nothing

  14. Stock market hit the upper bollenger band but backed off, which is negative. My indicators are still very weak but positive. I agree with George’s WAVE 2 rally, then a down WAVE 3, or something like that. Seems to me, if you shut down the world economy even if it is for a short time (???), the total negative effect on the stock market has not yet been seen. At some point it will be time to reenter. I just don’t feel that time is now.

  15. Lol lol well… we have heard about everyone rushing to the defense of those that lost their incomes due to the pandemic.
    Lol lol
    It became a discussion. I’ve always been skeptical though since the help usually avoids the working class.
    Like my niece that told me FEMA was saying they were there ffg or everyone. When it all ended they helped out with a twenty dollar bill and a good luck.
    Well today I heard from a couple of people that swore up and down unemployment would be there for them. Lol lol lol
    Usually unemployment is a myth..well they.learned just how well this is going to be for them..
    Are ya ready..
    Are ya curious lol..
    45.00 a week unemployment lol lol .
    They both said. Dont you dare tell me I told you so.. lol lol..
    Rent for the one is 1100.00 a month the other shares rent and is 500.00 that of course doesnt include anything else…lol lol
    Well at least they will get gas money to look for a job if they dont repossess their cars lol..
    If it hadn’t of been for covid19 they wouldn’t have gotten anything.

    • :-( Sadly.. one of those kids.. is a very nice young lady.. single mom.. she went to see about getting FS and help with her rent.. etc.. only to discover that there isn’t any assistance available because she is out of work because of this virus…. what she will get is the forty five dollars and to be happy about it….. Diapers, formula, rent ,car payement.. utilities.. the works.. the stress got to her and she attempted to say goodbye to the situation..
      Luckily she will survive the ordeal.. but it doesn’t make her situation anymore livable.. the true issues at the bottom.. to survive in place..
      I totally plan on jumping in the ring of fire and help as much as I can and get her some assistance with this.. my guess is this will expand on all social platforms from the bottome feeders trying to eek out a living to the ones on top that have lost it all in the collapse of the velocity of money..

  16. George,
    I don’t want to rain on anybody’s parade but in my neck of the woods nobody and I mean nobody lays down cardboard like the photo . Down here there is a record of people being snakebit picking up plywood and the like on their property. I would think that after your copperhead experience you might want to give the cardboard use more thought. One more thing, the North American pitviper antivenom, crofab, is made by just one pharmaceutical company. If your medical insurance doesn’t cover it the out of pocket expenses can well into five figures and six is not unknown. (coral snake antivenom is no longer made)

    I don’t know if anyone has noticed that the virus stats are presented without context allowing interpretation by the sheeple to go right to “the sky is falling”. If you care to drill down to real mortality rates from other causes it is readily apparent that we are being misled on a massive scale.

    This week’s reading recommendation is Barbara Tuchman’s “A Distant Mirror: the Calamitous 14th Century”. It’s a good read that gives some context on our turbulent times. Also a hearty second to “Seven Days in May”.

    A suggestion for using any quiet time, learn to knit

    Finally, does anyone remember or still use Strunk and White? This tom had a section devoted to words and phrases to be avoided in one’s writing and speaking. To this I wish to add “in an abundance of caution”


  17. I’m thinking that the next leg down in the equities markets may have effects that are felt for several generations. Be wary, and be prepared to make adjustments. Just because you think you know how all this is going to play out doesn’t mean you really do.

  18. 23 NEW CASES IN HAWAII. Stats from HDOH:
    Total cases: 410 (23 newly reported)
    Hawai’i County: 23
    Honolulu County: 312
    Kaua’i County: 18
    Maui County: 48
    Pending: 7
    Residents diagnosed outside of Hawai‘i: 2
    Required Hospitalization: 42
    Hawaii deaths: 5
    Released from Isolation: 113
    Cumulative totals as of 12:00pm, April 7, 2020

  19. Well, it’s enough to send a person delusional as here we are in day 26 of the PM leading Canada from self-isolation. We’ve all heard of maintaining social distance by now but this is getting ridiculous. Nothing to see, please keep the line moving 9135-4027 Quebec inc vs. Saad.

    It’s shaping up to be a banner week as the first federal payments are going out to recipients of what appears to be a four month minimum income social engineering experiment courtesy of the virus. Hip hip Huawei to the Chinese 5G conglomerate for sending facemasks to Canada. Meanwhile Princess Meng remains under ankle lockdown at her Vancouver mansion. Any truth to the notion that PM Boris was nixing the Huawei 5G deal for the UK before his untimely medical emergency?

    One awaits the one-time-too-many that a provincial police force member turns around and prevents ground passage to a Canadian citizen making an intra-provincial journey. This appears to be in contravention of article 6 in the federal constitution of Canada which permits free movement about the country. To the best of my knowledge, no national emergency has been declared, only provincial emergencies depending on province.

    The Canadian Forces website advised a while ago that Project Laser, a pandemic response plan, had been escalated to level 3. It’s an interesting read that various elements have been called back home early, and members already in country were ordered to follow self-isolation procedures in readiness for deployment. Now that deployment appears nearer, perhaps distilling the future by reading the northern lights would be a sage choice.

    • “Any truth to the notion that PM Boris was nixing the Huawei 5G deal for the UK before his untimely medical emergency? ”

      Active rumor…

      The birds say Mr. Trump was whispering in Mr. Johnson’s ear in RE: How bad an idea WahWay is as a “secure” means of communication. The birds don’t say whether Mr. Trump was convincing…

  20. G___: I went back and looked at your Covid-19 projections in early March, and they were much too low. Somewhere around March 19-21 your projections surged upward, but looking at today’s 1.43-ish EE6 count, those 2 week old numbers look spot on.

    The numbers you are currently projecting may turn out to be very high at the end of the 2nd quarter, largely because the supply of willing victims is going to give out before then.

    We will not really be aware of that, because by the end of the quarter, the test kit production will be outpaced and test kit stockpiles will be use up, so the whiz-kid bug statistics will cease to have any meaning.

    Everything I attempt to procure by mail order is having problems, as the system slowly implodes. If you are thinking about getting wait listed for mail order ag products, best to get on the list now. It’s like buying a lotto ticket, I think.

    Employment prospects are looking bad. I’m still working, but I don’t know how long the checks will be coming. I have practice in living cheap, so this will just mean I pull in my elbows once again. I am on a cash basis, which gives me some level of flexibility in dealing with everyday catastrophes.

    If you think you are immune, then you don’t understand the nature of runaway credit deflation. There is almost no such thing as a cash business in this country, presently. In credit deflation, all debt is eventually liquidated by market forces. This means all but a handful of existing businesses fail. Those businesses are replaced by businesses being run on a cash basis. This is bad news for corporate home office yuppies, who I must confess, do not run in the same circles as myself. You need to figure out where your cash rock in the stream is to hang on to. If it is in a tent parked by the roadside, then best to buy a good tent now, because I don’t see civilian tent manufacture as an essential priority supply chain. Take heed And_. Don’t expect the feel good debt and rent forgiveness talk to last long, once the defaults and evictions go into full swing.

  21. Trump administration weighs legal action over alleged Chinese hoarding of PPE

    Leading US manufacturers of medical safety gear told the White House that China prohibited them from exporting their products from the country as the coronavirus pandemic mounted — even as Beijing was trying to “corner the world market” in personal protective equipment, The Post has learned.

  22. Sooo, by your math George, the world economy will have been wrecked for something as dangerous as the flu.

    Flu, globally per year:
    “3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths.”

    George, your numbers from this column:
    “If we get a mirror on the decline, that would lead to 1.37-million cases and 274-thousand dead.”

    We got took folks. Something else is up, and we should be frightened that this was that easy to pull off.

  23. “(Pardon me while I roll in the whiteboard and huff a couple of hits off the marker pen….. (huffs)……Wow! All better now!”


    Well done…

  24. Big wack coming for the golden one. Stay alert as always. Don’t worry about it. Must I say the programming of all of this is exceptional. Wonderful Sith Lord psyops . But they are gone

  25. The death rate is catching up, even now. The 6.99% one-day increase (Sunday to Monday) leads us to project 60.4% more dead next week.


    The death rate in CO is that high, because they only test those admitted to a hospital… those who get sick and stay home are not part of the infection rates.


    No cure are you sue, go buy some ivermectin.

  26. SSSSSSeven THOUSAND Three HUNDRED dollars – can I get a witness!

    Looking for BTC & S&P to decouple soonly – thought it might start today – but LQD PUMPED 1.8% pulling the S&P up 3% today – so still working together.

    Trader in me says switch horses and ride this crazy train to new short term top, Investor in me says look the hell out for “falling” Markets.

    The PAIN is real – Market “Insurance” costs real $- but a necessary expense. So Short Term (days) LONG – and Long Term (week/month) SHORT!

    Basically want the Market to move – either way – keep moving – Like our “dammed” Way of Life and our National Economy – KEEP MOVING!…


    Geriatric types and immune compromised types – Armour UP- this thing aint going away

    Vit C with Zinc and Sambucol LOZENGES – slow melt in mouth during course of day – “antidote” allow U 2 operate in hotzone (s) to fight another day.

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