This might turn into an “M” week.
That is, up at the open today (if futures hold – housing will pop first) but then petering out after the commercials get back from stuffing presents. That may lead to the “downstroke” of the M’s middle around tomorrow and into Thursday. But a pre-holiday frosting rally can’t be ruled out yet. Anhtoher four-day workweek is ahead.
One possible reason that things went smoothly over the weekend might be traceable back to some Pew Research circa 2014. Russians Return to Religion, But Not to Church | Pew Research Center where the payoff is “…there has been an upsurge in affiliation with Orthodox Christianity in Russia.1 Between 1991 and 2008, the share of Russian adults identifying as Orthodox Christian rose from 31% to 72%…”
While it’s popular for writers to picture national leaders as independent of the people they (nominally) lead – starting a war on a major religious holiday can be dicey. Sure, there was the Yom Kippur war (fought from 6 to 25 October 1973) but that was assessed as the Ramadan War. In other words, a time when “enemy” defense would be expected to be down.
The Orthodox holiday window (and the protestant, too) may have been keep-out zones, for now.
But, as I explained for George Noory’s crowd on Coast last night, Q1 2023 will either go OK (and the year may scale a 6 out of 10. OR if the Russians begin moving west toward Moldova and up the spine of lower Europe, the year might rate only a 3. And that’d be among survivors. Some additional notes and thinking points on Peoplenomics tomorrow.
For now…
Laying Out Data
Early Futures painted a POSSIBLE future that might go something like this as the new year rolls along:
With less than ingenious political leadership on all sides, 2023 could range from a muddle-through to a real shitstorm before the 4th of July this coming summer.
As I explained overnight, a lot depends on flash goggle needs between now and April. And with China, the NorK’s, Iran, Russia, and ISIS remnants all gunning for us, the “Great Reset Coverup War” may be closer than we’d like to imagine.
Fresh Data
Just popping:
Along with a real break in “buying shit from overseas” —
The trade deficit decrease is likely due to the (mysteriously) strong dollar. We are the place to park money, I guess, if you’re in Europe and want your money out of harm’s way.
I will post a summary of the Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic (and whoever else wandered through) Housing data right after 8 AM Central time.
There was other news overnight, so click down through earlier reports and updates you may have missed. And about halfway through this one, see the list of various anti-aging strategies. We didn’t get into that on the radio show (time and when that novel comes out, need new things to think about) but it’s worth a glance.
OK, more coffee and let’s see how bad the “housing rollover” looks because that could take some of the hype off the edges if it rolls downhill too fast.
Up the European spine of mountains, keep an eye on the continued warm,-up of Serbia-Kosovo as just now, looks like Serbia may be about to “light ’em up.” Towards the partition of Kosovo: The Serbian Army received an intervention order – Artillery in scattered positions – The Patriarch of Serbia blessed (vid).
Which would distract NATO, perhaps? As rumors of an early 2023 Russia move west in the lower part of Europe swirl about.
Write when you wake up. We have a world to destroy, yet.
George@Ure.net
Good work on C2C.
Maybe Putin did transition to ‘war’. The Satan II was dusted off. Warsaw is just sitting there.
Russia’s Lavrov: Either Ukraine fulfils Moscow’s proposals or our army will decide
“Our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia’s security emanating from there, including our new lands, are well known to the enemy,” the state news agency quoted Lavrov as saying late on Monday.
“The point is simple: Fulfil them for your own good. Otherwise, the issue will be decided by the Russian army.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-lavrov-either-ukraine-fulfils-221938092.html
Thank you for that. Been my belief all along. The regime should take note or be responsible for outcome.
Let the Big Dog Eat.
Meta, Tesla, and PayPal are among the 10 worst performers on the S&P 500.
The 10 biggest losers in the S&P 500 this year have erased $1.6 trillion in market value.
.
My ‘Aggregate Index’ has lost just over 23% of its value since last November. My notes from January predicted 35% to 37% drop – so I had that wrong – even though I had a stellar year in trading.
– I also noted that I didn’t think Biden would make it past Halloween – had that wrong too. Along with – I thought we would have a major terrorist attack [ October-November] – but, so-far.., so-good.
– I also thought that inflation would be a touch higher.., consumer spending would slow and the GDP would be much weaker. Wrong on all counts.
– It would appear that my crystal ball is broken !
Take your prediction and back it down 9 percent – you were closer than you think. INflation makes a lot of bad predictions pencil out just right.
You KNOW the gummint is jacking with the numbers, and that inflation has to be much, much higher than the reported rate. Don’t assume your numbers are off until you visit a few places like Shadowstats…
Pretty big divergence this morning between the Dow., up 115 and the Nasdaq100., down 116. Have seen this in quite a while.
I believe the strength in the dollar is due to foreign central banks liquidating their Treasury bonds for dollars. Most likely those dollars will go into gold and other commodities. I have heard reports that Treasury bond auctions are going no bid so the Fed has to buy all of them. How long can that continue?
“OR if the Russians begin moving west toward Moldova and up the spine of lower Europe, the year might rate only a 3.”
This assumes Russia is an aggressive regime, which I do not.
I can see them invading Finland, which we are about to use, to put nukes within spitting distance of Russia. I can’t see them invading Moldova or Poland, unless the Azovs form up in those countries for a counterattack or counter-offensive.
Speaking of the 100 year toaster.
I’ve got this Camry that I bought new 10 years ago last month, 11/2012. It’s a 4 banger w/259,xxx miles and now uses oil, about 1 quart per 1.5 tanks of gasoline.
No major repairs. Maintenance items has been it so far including one battery. The next goal is 300K.
If you find yourself in 2012 and need an economical car. Pick one up.
I rebuilt one of those Toyota 4’s a few years back. It was almost as easy as an old British 4 — surfaced the block, rebuilt and trued the head (valves were crap), new rings (bores were all good), new rods & mains (crank was good), new oil and water pumps. It took about a week (machine shop turnaround time) and cost only a few hundred dollars.
They are VERY good little engines…