December “Crash Alert”

This morning we scrap our usual format (headlines, charts, in depth report) to lay everything out in as much context as possible.

This is not alarmist – at least in the usual sense:  We are not saying the coming week will be a disaster.  But, the odds bump up from the non-zero region far enough to have our rapt attention.

Tray tables and seatbacks in their upright and locked position?

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27 thoughts on “December “Crash Alert””

  1. The Aggregate Index Chart from January 2017 has the comment “While we don’t wish anyone well …” I’d be surprised it you meant that.

    • You know, sometimes when you wake up at 3 AM there’s no telling what will come out of the figners, lol…

      No, of course we don’t wish anyone ill….wealth and riches all around!

      • No, George, I think you made more sense in the original way. Wealth and money is what fuels our madness. We’ve begun to destroy everything that makes life good and wholesome the same way Rome did in their society. The only time there is a general feeling of well-wishes to all human-kind is when our sense of having “enough” expands to as many people as possible or at least the sense that there is hope to have “enough” in our grasp. The last time I remember this was the 60s which resulted from the 50’s wealth expansion. By the 70s we’d lost our way in the drunkenness of our wealth where we’d completely lost sight and sense of what is really valuable in life. Now 50-odd years into madness doesn’t set the stage for a mere financial explosion but a majorly compressed nuclear event that will change the recent course of our history.

  2. Excellent analysis, George. How about a market drop into early December, then a year end rally followed by a decline in January to form a nested head and shoulders top? That would be a thing of beauty for the market supercycle top. I mean chartwise. The reality of that would be a disaster.
    About Russia. Americans are so ignorant about how different the Russian Federation is from the USSR. Socially and politically they are 2 different countries. The best way to appreciate this is to go there and see for yourself. We are still programmed to think of Russia as the Soviet Union. Russian aggression. Russian hostility. Interference with elections. They influenced Brexit. But wait, didn’t the US fund the overthrow of the elected Ukranian government and install a fascist government? Victoria Nuland? We spent 5 billion, f*k the EU.
    The Russian economy has actually benefited from the stupid and aggressive US sanctions. From what I’ve seen their economy is now more dynamic and capitalistic than the monopolistic US economy. Lastly since they have thousands of hydrogen bombs and all sorts of missiles shouldn’t we by trying to reduce tensions rather than constantly provoking them? To my understanding the Russian Federation is now convinced that NATO is planning a nuclear first strike. Perhaps the US and Russia are secretly colluding to scare everyone so they both can increase their military budgets. Nah, that’s crazy.

  3. You see George is like the Titanic you know and there’s an iceberg in front of him and it’s hard to get him to change is Direction for success instead of failure.

    Hopefully the time travel program will go back just enough to give him the leverage he needs to go forward. lol

  4. Number one the banks haven’t lost anything on crypto, they’re buying over-the-counter large amounts at a low price and then they have other parts of their organizations that are selling large amounts at low prices which drives the market down and then when the market they buy more or they have pre-arranged bids so that they can buy it while it’s down any ordinary person has no idea why they’re sleeping at night the price went down and it does it consistently and then that’s where they buy in and then when you wake up in the morning you’re going like hell you’re a little bit too late to get in on the low

  5. It makes you wonder doesn’t it if someone lie is leading and if someone is following or if someone has just threw the stuff out there and all of a sudden everyone has to follow the lead that the future of crypto is bringing us to because we’re not going back to the past no way we’re not going back to silver dollars we’re not going back to gold and we’re not going back to Fiat the future if we want to go into the future and into away from the Earth into the universe we have to use crypto so there’s no way getting around it if you want to survive in the future financially to have a good plan but the first Plan before exhaust itself is to invest in the new money system that’s coming about

      • I agree with you , , , this crypto crap is just that . . . pure vapor going to nothing – a fad ending soon.

        Not even like the tulip mania – more like those poor souls who would buy land unseen . . .

        P. T. Barnum would have loved it!

      • As of Sunday morning 6 AM it was down to $3,792…what can I say?
        Every time I talk to anyone about anything OTHER than Bitcoin, they wax on about how (whatever coin) is somehow better than the other “made up” crap.
        Insanity – on two legs!

    • Hmm..is someone leading…is someone following…hmmm

      I have some papers in my pocket.. Going to get a lowly can of beans at the store.. They require this paper to trade for the beans. Its just paper..its not backed by anything except a promise that it’s good..they’re printing an extra two billion of those a day.. Interest on what we have borrowed is what closing in on three extra billion a day besides what they’re printing..
      Hmm I wonder who is leading and who is following..
      Crypto…well its a fart in the wind.. You don’t even have a piece of paper to hold..
      The prognosis is simple anyone with an iq of twenty can see it..
      All we have to do is look at the bay area to know what the future holds..kids making a quarter mil a year no job experience just a piece of paper saying they read and studied a few books..yet they are living in cars alleys and getting assistance…the big question is how long will it take to move like a wave a cross the land.
      How bad will the people at the bottom rebel.. The last time this happened in Germany Adolph used it to gain power..imprison the wealthyJewish community and strip them from their riches and eradicate them all while propelling the one paction into the stratosphere making the working class into socialized slaves.
      Hmm leaders and followers..
      The answers are simple..yet no one wants to move that way..I actually don’t think we can alter the course at this point in time..I think we have to go for the ride at this time.. Its all written.. I am fairly confident that in a post on the age of desolation this was covered in a translation of nostradamis

  6. And here’s another thought there will be not any economic collapse if Trump has anything to do with it on this planet around the globe and off of this globe the new money system will be digital not something you put a like a piece of paper in the back of your wallet that is not the future

    • Trump is intentionally provoking the powers-that-be to collapse the system that way he gets to point his finger at them and say they were the ones that did it when he takes control over the whole financial fed Reserve System

      • IMHO…trump sees the value of the money he has. Its in his best interest to keep the dollar alive and with some value.
        He’s being fought by everyone on the hill.. I still haven’t figured out why the puppet masters are trying to do.

      • Think about the simple logic of keeping the dollar strong. Industry and the economy strong..its all in trumps best interest. Lets say you have a hundred million in the bank .. Secure drawing a modest interest.. Yet the other side is watering it down by creating numbers..
        Outsourcing jobs importing products adds up to money being watered down even more. To add insult to injury we as a country give them tax rebates allow them to make huge profits and avoid paying taxes by having our legislators vote in laws allowing this.
        All of this waters down the value of the dollar even more. To keep the consumers buying you dump water on the table even more..eventually I see hyper inflation like one country where it takes a month’s wages for a loaf of bread and bologna for a week. The young women end up selling their bodies for a can of soup..the elderly dumpster diving for scraps. That hundred million well if..hyperinflation reaches the same as it is in some countries in Africa..well its now worth ten loaves of bread. I think DJT sees that and preferably would rather his hard earned money continues to be worth more than a truckload of bread. Its totally in his and every ones best interests that the laboring class remain string the dollar still worth a dollar and the industrial aspect of the country alive strong and flourishing. His companies maintain a high retention level he pays exceptionally high treats his employees as family. Take a smaller profit grow slower but steady..while everyone else is after the fast buck..toss the blue collar worker under the bus.
        Of course that’s just my point of view

  7. Excellent summary today – I’m glad I subscribe. I’d forgotten about a few of the tripwires. I suppose I’ll still be better prepared than most, FWIW.

    Now back to chopping wood and carrying water.

  8. Since the United States is richer than George Soros who people are saying funded the Caravan all we have to do is put a deposit from Air about a hundred miles south of money food for those people and they’ll all start going South and do it again another hundred miles that will alleviate our problem to you want his problem and distribute the problem throughout Mexico as they travel South and it will cost a lot less then maintaining a border which we do need the Border

  9. you haven’t seen anything yet it’s going to go down down down it’s going to go down Beyond level Lumber one level number two and then settle near level number 3…. bye have two dips eats dip that goes lower and you buy it makes you richer than the Richer

  10. OIL……I dreamt about oil last night . how far does it touch us..we of course associate it with transportation..but look closer..we wear it ,play with it, eat with it, it literally touches every aspect of our lives in so many different ways.. Now the fuel price decline..the cost of fuel declined another five cents.
    The average is what four or five hundred million gallons of fuel a day a quarter of a billion lost income. That’s not even considering all the other areas products etc. That will reflect that coat difference. That’s a tad bit of water to float that noodle. Another good reason why they’ve spent so much discrediting the legalization of marijuana..( which would be a healthier and more sustainable resource for everything)
    How will this multi billion dollar profit loss affect the markets. Is it enough to float the economy a while longer.
    What will the markets do..

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