We have a two part report this morning: First a look at a possible bounce today (though of small magnitude) and then the update of the Case-Shiller S&P, CoreLogic (and the pizza guy) Housing numbers around 8:15 *(Central).
This morning I’d like to share a tiny speck of my work over on the peoplenomics.com side of the house because the picture (and outlook) has deteriorated a good bit since last week.
First chart. This shows the Global Aggregate of multiple markets since the lows in March of 2009. It’s not for the squeamish or those who can count to five. Because under Elliott wave theory, five moves is usually all there is to any market movement. Look at the big Roman numerals.
This point cannot be over emphasized enough: Partial numbers while global markets are all trading are useless. The only time this information is really useful is when everything closes as the US shuts down for the weekend. Then? Well, money has to roost somewhere for the weekend and that’s when we snapshot its “resting state.”
We have been doing a fair bit of “news diffusion” research, lately. As, for example, that anomalous story that began breaking at 7:29 AM on May 7. The “children separated/in cages” memering. Bloody viral and very hot emotionally. But in the end, yet-another useless distraction. Like mad Maxine and her Trump bashing. Emotional? Sure. Can you trade on it? No.
Hate to break it to you, but there’s a much bigger picture.
It’s the pending collapse of the Globalist Business Model.
The problem can be stated in a sequential, evolutionary way.
- We begin with the major US inflation at the (1980) peak of the long wave economic interest rate cycle.
- As US wages soared, prices were climbing. In order to make a LARGER profit, corporations went on a shopping binge for lower labor cost locales.
- This, followed by the break-up of the AT&T/Bell phone monopoly in 1982 and the arrival of high speed modems Few people appreciate the rate of telecom impact on the global economy, but as Wikipedia notes “ The first 9,600 bit/s modem was developed in 1968, and sold for more than $20,000, but had high error rates.” Today, you can’t give them away.
- As the dispersion of manufacturing to least-labor-cost centers accelerated, so too did offshore finance. Recall I was #2 at a Cayman Islands airline in 1983…
- The real class division has its roots back in this period. That’s when the moneyed-class “went for it.”
- Telecom deregulation and a lack of US tariffs (due to the FedGov’s over-reliance on the Income Tax) allowed cheap foreign goods to flood into America. And, they continue to do so. Prior to 1913, the entire federal government was supported by tariffs. Now, only color televisions are tariffed as phones and other electronica slide in from what remains of borders.
- The Digital Revolution was rolling and by 2000, it looked like everything could only go higher. Then, the bubble burst beginning in March-April of that year.
- Similarly, the Fed has just raised interest rates again and these will likely have similar effects as in other historical cases.
- Then there’s global depletion. While the IPPC was busy selling the moneyed call notion of “global warming” and the science on the arriving DeVries (206-year) solar decline was being ignored, the prospect of a pretext for a Global Climate Tax brightened. Perhaps there would be a graceful way to get out of the global government problem.
- That problem distills down to a lack of genuine growth. Of the useful organic sort. Growth, once you have three cars, two phones, 300 square feet of housing and student loan debt up to your ass is sorely missing.
- Donald Trump (for all his faults) has shaken the foundations of Globalism by reopening the tariff problem.
- As he has done so, other governments are now looking at their own best interests and that’s where the problem lies.
Which eventually gets us to the “Report from Iron Mountain” problem at a global level. What do people “agree to be governed?”
As the radical faction of the Internet Age is expressing broadly, there’s a whole lot of people who don’t assent to anything in the way of authority, except from their own “tribes.” Consider the following groups and ask what they have in common:
- Black Lives Matter
…and the list goes on including radicals in climate, gender, energy use,trade, race, religion, politics…everyone is anti-everything and it’s all on the Internet.
You see, ultimately, the world is not a “grown-up” enough place to allow the total freedom and use of the internet. It wasn’t ready for radio, either, which is why that got regulated last time around (previous depression). It’s how history rolls. Too much change, too many stupid people and you get CB radio and more recently social media.
I outlined the coming Licensing of the Internet in my 2012 book Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet. A few years early, but her she comes!
History, you understand, is cyclical. All the sex and gender “shock” of present day is merely a rerun of the late Roaring Twenties phenomenon of “flappers.” Shock value is the meme, kiddies, not the specifics. Loosh.
And, now as then, we have a national communications problem and a national revenue problem.
In the previous Depression, it was all embodied two laws: The Communications Act of 1934 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. June 1930, I believe it was.
Point is, what’s coming will likely be a Big Global Ugly. The Internet has become a major divisive tool of radicals and will be regulated and licensed shortly. In fact, a note from my consigliere (a real lawyer) goes to this very licensing point:
Digital anonymity disappearing … this is from the UK
Already the UK is now requiring POSITIVE ID if one wants to visit a Porn site (has to take one’s driver’s license or other government ID to an office or registered shop and get a special ID #, and pay for it of course, in order to surf any porn – or so called porn – sites)
Fully ID’d internet surfing … have to “protect the children” of course!!
(probably coming soon to the libraries near you too!! – can’t just go look at books or magazines on the shelf in the future …. they will have to track which ones you just look at!!, not just the ones you “check out”) Source link.”Digital IDs to end online mob rule and anonymity...”
Please remember, I’ve been alerting you to this issue of “Digital Mob Rule” for some months now and we are beginning to see how a focus on this (radicals seizing the web) might be the basis for a licensing requirement to come. It’s already been rolled out in Kneeler-lands.
Meantime, do be alert to the short-comings of what passes for “investigative journalism” these days. God-awful sport. Easily manipulated to swing public concern to the fate of irresponsible Central American parents and illegal border-crossers. All while the freedoms we once cherished are being seized by digital mobs.
I told you this was coming in 2012. I was way early, but it’s all showing up now: Least cost labor collapses (bringing globalism down) as wage parities are ironed out. Leaving governments trying to tax more through any means as the effective purchasing power of tax revenues declines.
The “investigative” types focusing on the low-lying fruit (anything the libs and rads will hand-wring about) does not change the velocity of America and the world as we head toward that brick wall.
But, sure is entertaining, ain’t it?
Department of Prescience
What did I show you yesterday?
Two tend channels.
Where did the US markets close yesterday? Bottom Trend channel. Like so.
We MIGHT be down a couple today, but there was the close and there was the trend channel. Other than buying some of that North Korean special paper they counterfeited American hundreds with, I don’t know how else to hand you money.
Now that you’ve been exposed to the larger contexts, let’s see a few headlines and see what useless, non-actionable bull shit and drivel is being foisted on us today and “news,” shall we?
Diss and Drat
While officials are in full ass-covering mode over the FBI’s purported use of spies withing the Trump campaign, we see this as another “better than the rest of us” assertion: Comey hopeful Trump won’t be re-elected: the American people will ‘tire of him’. Say good-bye now, Jim.
Peoplenomics subscribers who read ” will find this a useful data point: “Who is making money from struggling U.S. malls?.”
Historical Replay Dept: Remember the role of the Bonus Army protests in the Depression? Try this as a modern rhyme: Large army veteran protests in China pose challenge for Xi.
Mad Maxine Watch: Republican lawmaker introduces motion asking for Maxine Waters’ resignation. Never happen, but more Kabuki.
Reporters in the dark? Mike Pompeo Says He Won’t Put a Timeline on North Korea Denuclearization shows up in Time. Who are such reporters that they can’t understand Pompeo doesn’t run North Korea – it’s their timeline, not it. Oh, FMTT the press is losing it…
Press that emotional hot button! Here comes a democrat on (where else?) CNN and he’s using the emo hot word internment. (OMG…a democrat…hand-wringing…can you imagine? Why the same party that birthed the Great Society in ’64 and hasn’t moved the ball is now oh so worried about LAW BREAKERS. AYSM? GTFU kiddies…it’s all about money and power. And that’s all it ever is…)
BBC Losing It?
Much hype around the BBC’s Artificial intelligence software sees people through walls.
Quick: Look through the wall. Which finger am I holding up?
How can this be a breakthrough or even news when you can buy a Walabot DIY – In-Wall Imager – See Studs, Pipes, Wires (for Android Smartphones – Not Compatible with iPhone) for $70-bucks at Amazon…and both microwave and terrahertz wave “seeing through walls” has been out in the intel world for a long time and it’s in Wikipedia if one wants to look…
Here’s the question no one seems to have asked: Why put seniors behind walls in the first place? See how idiotic assumptions work? What, are we going to have mobile senior scoliosis patrols and huge government employment there? Seriously (or sort of), WTF?
See how this is “non problem” solving? Are reporters idiots? (Not us old seasoned ones..I mean the kids in news who shouldn’t be there!)
OK, I totally get it: The hot word is A.I. and that’s all part of future hype. Don’t ask the logical or obvious. Why, do that and the bullshit would all leak out all over the place. I totally get that. Ad revenues and government funding would fail, the world collapses and it’s all Ure’s fault for asking the questions that make sense. Pardon moi!
Jeez… I’m gonna get more coffee before the Housing data…maybe a quick squeeze with the ViseGrips, too. Though a crack-pipe would be more like it…gonna be on of them days.