Data Thursday, Fed Confessions, Crisis of Wave 2’s

A full plate this morning:  Some critical outlook data has just been released.  The Federal Reserve is about to replay its role as a “failed deity.”  And we can make some generalizations about herd behavior at the top of Wave II’s.

We will once again shy away from memes and “virality” in our discussion of The Future.  Because while there has been a terrible injustice done in the George Floyd death in Minneapolis, it does not, in our view, justify an outbreak of violence 1,900.7 miles away (by car) in Los Angeles.  Unless, of course, there’s an agenda in play.  This may be a precursor event to future events discussed in  Peoplenomics Wednesday.  It would be an “easy fit” or “migration path.”

Data Quinfecta

Five nags in the horserace for investor attention:  Fresh unemployment, GDP. Corporate Profits, and Durable Goods. The Fed confessionals will be discussed separately, however.

First Time Unemployment Claims: +2.1 Million

“In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,123,000, a decrease of 323,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 8,000 from 2,438,000 to 2,446,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,608,000, a decrease of 436,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,000 from 3,042,000 to 3,044,000.  “

GDP Results:  -5% Annualized

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 4.8 percent. With the second estimate, a downward revision to private inventory investment was partly offset by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment.”

Corporate Profits:  -295.4 Billion

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $295.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $67.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $0.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $169.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $53.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $58.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $1.4 billion. In the first quarter, receipts decreased $72.7 billion, and payments decreased $14.2 billion.

Durable Goods: New Orders -17.2%

“New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $35.4 billion or 17.2 percent to $170.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 16.6 percent March decrease.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 7.4 percent.  Excluding defense, new orders decreased 16.2 percent.  Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $23.9 billion or 47.3 percent to $26.6 billion. “

Earlier this morning, Dow futures had been up as much as 150 points.  After the data now, we see the markets…UP 187 on the Dow…

Fed Confessionals

One was released Wednesday in the Fed’s Beige Book report.  Here’s the part that matters:

“Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most – reflecting disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer spending fell further as mandated closures of retail establishments remained largely in place during most of the survey period. Declines were especially severe in the leisure and hospitality sector, with very little activity at travel and tourism businesses. Auto sales were substantially lower than a year ago, although several Districts noted recent improvement. A majority of Districts reported sharp drops in manufacturing activity, and production was notably weak in auto, aerospace, and energy-related plants. Residential home sales plunged due in part to fewer new listings and to restrictions on home showings in many areas. Construction activity also fell as new projects failed to materialize in many Districts. Commercial real estate contacts mentioned that a large number of retail tenants had deferred or missed rent payments. Bankers reported strong demand for PPP loans. Agricultural conditions worsened, with several Districts reporting reduced production capacity at meat-processing plants due to closures and social distancing measures. Energy activity plummeted as firms announced oil well closures, which led to historically low levels of active drilling rigs. Although many contacts expressed hope that overall activity would pick-up as businesses reopened, the outlook remained highly uncertain and most contacts were pessimistic about the potential pace of recovery.

And It Continues…

Employment and Wages
Employment continued to decrease in all Districts, including steep losses in most Districts, as social distancing and business closures affected employment at many firms. Securing PPP loans helped many businesses to limit or avoid layoffs, although employment continued to fall sharply in retail and in leisure and hospitality sectors. Contacts cited challenges in bringing employees back to work, including workers’ health concerns, limited access to childcare, and generous unemployment insurance benefits. Overall wage pressures were mixed as some firms cut wages while others implemented temporary wage increases for essential staff or to compete with unemployment insurance. Most Districts noted wage increases in high-demand and essential sectors, while wages were flat or declining in other sectors.

Pricing pressures varied but were steady to down modestly on balance. Weak demand weighed on selling prices, with some contacts noting discounting for apparel, hotel rooms, and airfare. Several Districts also reported low commodity prices, including oil, steel, and several agricultural commodities. Supply chain disruptions and strong demand led to higher prices for some grocery items including meat and fresh fruit. One District reported that firms faced additional costs related to safety protocols and social distancing compliance, while another District noted that the costs of personal protective equipment had risen due to strong demand.”

I can’t speak for other “small-time market players” but to me, this is NOT the kind of national assessment that would inspire great confidence.

In fact, our judgement of the Fed remains harsh (we think they should raise, not play the zero lower-bound game).  Our judgment of America remains sound, but only to the degree to which people are still able to think for themselves.  Given the Digital Online Uprising, sparked by social(ist) media – mostly failing from declining ad revenues – that last precious asset (“American Vales” like honesty and fair play) are quickly declining.

After Today’s Close

WE are anxiously awaiting the release of the weekly H.6 Money Stocks report.  Because in it, (Table 2) we will see the most-recent “sliding window” of Making Up Money (MUM) policy.

Tomorrow morning, we will dutifully report the nont-seasonally adjusted (NSA) annualized rate of hyperinflation based on the most recent month of printing.

As of last week, money supplies were going up at a 171% annualized rate.  Which – for the few of us left with any mental acuity at all – means Gold and Silver values haven’t change.  The reason prices have changed is debt is being off-loaded into paper.  The Dollar’s value is reduced because there’s so damn much of it.

The sheep-herding media falsely worships the Fed while our money is rotting from the inside-out.  Values don’t go UP. Prices however do.  Because we’re Making Up Money nowadays.

W.D. Gann’s Lesson – Mid 1930s

Legendary stock trader W.D. Gann wrote a brilliant book, first copies of which date back to 1923.  The Wall Street Stock Selector. But, by the late 1930s the expanded version of the book began with a terrible indictment of the Federal Reserve.  A quote to make the point:

“Chapter 1 – New Era in Stocks or Changed Cycles?”

“During 1927, 1928, and the first half of 1929, there was much talk of a new era in the stock market and the great value of the Federal Reserve Bank in preventing panics.  Many economists, bankers, large financial operators, and businessmen said that the day had passed when there would be panics caused by money conditions such as had happened in 1907 and previous years.

At the same time these people were talking about the millennium in financial afairs and the stock market, but they seemed to have forgotten what happened in 1920-1921.  The decline of 1920 and 1921 folloowing the great Bull Campaign of 1919 was due to “frozen loans” and tight money.”

About here, Gann and Ure part ways.  Ure sagely notes that the “frozen loans” in the 1920’s worked out better in the longer term than had “super easy” (Bernanke’s helicopters dropping cash) in the 1929 collapse.  That we seem bent on replaying today.

This is just one of the reasons we don’t see a happy ending to times ahead.  And this brings us to the main takeaway of this morning:

The Crisis of Wave IIs

One tenet of stock market herd-behavior study is that in Elliott Wave terms, people are as optimistic and ebullient about the future as they were at the all-time highs.

So far, we have notched an all-time high in our Peoplenomics Aggregate Index on February 19th of this year.  The reading then?  29,059.63.

Even before the news today (in  the data festival above) our best reading had been yesterday’s 26,590.03.  That’s about 2,500-points shy of bettering the old highs from earlier this year.  A time historians may refer to as B.V. – as in Before Virus.

The Strange Attractor

In 1929, as you can see in this chart, the stock market declined 14.6% ahead of the Great Crash.  Before that financial disaster, however, the market rallied up to being off its highs just 7.42%.

Present day, our decline was much greater – down 33.18% – but we have been “pulled up” by the Bull market since March lows.  In fact, as of Tuesday close, we were only down 8.5% from recent highs.  Shades of ’29, redux.

Disease Waves Vs. Social Waves Vs. Markets

If stocks are susceptible to waves of optimism – and surges of denial – at the height of Wave II rallies, might the same occur in disease/pandemic outbreaks as well?

The answer is “Yes of course!” but we need to be clear how the Disease Wave and the QOL (Quality of Life) Waves are inversely related:

There…now you have a fair idea of our outlook toward the Future. Easy-peasy, huh?

Whether it plays out this way is a matter for time and history to sort out.  But,  one thing is certain:  It’s far more useful to overstock here at the “top of Wave II” than it is to be caught unaware if events “hit the fan from over here.”

Last Problem:”Is Herd Immunity” a Lie, Too?

CV-19 is (at least statistically) a  bioweapon.  All that we’re not clear on is  intent.

The Big Agenda Media Lie in-play to watch, we think, is “herd immunity.”

We don’t think there’s such a thing with this kind of virus.  While it may be true with short-lived infections, tell me how “herd immunity” works in HIV/AIDS?  Or, in tuberculosis?  In cancer?  Heart disease?

No, many “scientists” will grab for the most-convenient excuses at hand, often.  Even if they are wrong.  How many great scientists (Galileo or Da Vinci and others?) were forced to capitulate before a wave of “wrong knowledge” at the time.

We’ll be doing more research on this “herd immunity” notion, however…

We notice there’s no “herd immunity” to stupidity.  If herd immunity was a real – extensible answer – all the dumb people should have perished long ago.

Data strongly argues they haven’t.

Remember:  Skepticism is an urban survival skill.

Just sayin’…

Write when you get rich,

57 thoughts on “Data Thursday, Fed Confessions, Crisis of Wave 2’s”

  1. my question is if the fed wanted to print like mad then to avoid turmoil, the velocity of money needs to slow down. is this one of the facets of the clampdown? slow the supply chain and/or overall spending?

  2. G – shout out to all the Nurses working on the front lines battling Covert19 infections.

    Heard bout Nurse working in the Virus Ward at Philly Med Center – her male patient kept asking her if his testicles were black!

    Patient had difficultly being understood with O2 mask on his face.

    Finally nurse all embarrassed, sheepishly lifts up bed sheet, delicately raises mans member with gloved hand and looks at his testicles.
    She tells him that no his testicles are not Black, and look fine.
    Man smiles lowers his O2 mask, thanks Nurse for that, and says “listen very very carefully to me – are my Results back?..

    Swiss National bank is buying MOAR Tech Stocks to weaken Swiss franc.

    These companies have or will have Negative Cash Flow going forward – how does that work?

    Sure, Sure everybody is like Amazon and Tesla – burn thru Billions every year and Wall Street will keep buying up the Stock.
    Coot cant “make that dog hunt” – Negative Cash Flow is a Non Starter.

    Will stick with PM companies with Proven Reserves in the ground – North American Assets. Afraid that with any sort of Financial Re-Set in near future – Precious Metal Mines will be Nationalized by their respective home countries. Just a lil paranoid, just a little..

    This looks as good place as any to call a Top..”SellSellSell…SELL MORTIMER SELL!”

    • Tesla is still a mess with folks believing the forward looking potential of the company, but Amazon is not losing money. Amazon certainly puts all money earned back into growth parts of the business so they show very little profit. The AWS parts of the business are very profitable and subsidizes other parts of the business that Amazon is attempting to keep growing. Their “store” part of the business is by far the biggest part of their revenue, but AWS provides something like 77% of the operating income. Though not sure Amazon can continue to grow to account for their 115PE ratio. I don’t see how one can grow one of the largest companies and employers in the world to account for this ratio even in the medium term. Azure and Google continue to grow their AWS competitive offerings and won’t some other companies ever compete with Amazon online store (walmart, target)? But I have thought that since they were only a book seller and I have been wrong. Can they grow revenue 5X in the next 5 years and keep expenses down to account for this valuation?

  3. George, evidence is taking shape that indicates the pandemic lockdown was on over-reaction that misdirected emergency medical measures and supplies:

    Elderly care facilities and certain immune compromised individuals were ground zero for Covid-19. Almost every other the infected either suffered mild-to-moderate symptoms and recovered quickly or were Determined to be asymptomatic. The stats in the above link are very revealing; the 1.7% of the U.S. population living in long term medical care facilities (LTMCFS) accounted for 53% of all U.S. Covid deaths. Emergency rooms near LTMCFs were inundated by this segment of society, yet care and supplies were misdirected to all emergency rooms everywhere. Supplies were stretched thin or were not available where needed most, for the elderly and immune compromised. The death rate for those in LTMCF’s was 50 times higher than the rest of the population. Every county in every state across the U.S. had their mortality rates skewed by deaths in these facilities. Children and healthy young folks were infected at a significantly lower rate. In short, the West, and the U.S. panicked and over-reacted, misdirecting scarce resources in the process. Check out the statistical presentation in the article above – it’s impressive and convincing.

    • I cannot see how the lockdown was an over reaction based on data they had and leadership in place. Certainly the length of time is an over reaction. But because few were taking steps to control the infection rates individually, something had to be done to allow time for researchers to understand the nature of the virus. Sure we know now that the elderly are much more impacted and cause much more use of healthcare resources, but that takes time and smart leadership to put policies in place to target. We don’t have any leaders with integrity only political animals attempting to retain power. It is easy to look backward and say we could have done it better, but deaths and ICU care were growing at an exponential rate and was not slowing naturally. We still have people today that take personal offense to wearing a mask in public. They seem to feel they are gods chosen individuals and it cannot be possible they be infected and spread to those more vulnerable. How do we return to any semblance of normal interactions with people with such an attitude of self importance. Allowing this to run rampant through the elderly could certainly have some positive impact to longer term SSecurity and Medi… outlays.

      • I take exception to several of the subsections of the comment made JoeDish. First, he states that “I cannot see how the lockdown was an over reaction based on data they had and leadership in place.” I believe that George is correct in concluding that there was an unnecessary misallocation of resources at the beginning of the crisis to hospitals and emergency rooms. The infectious rate and death demographic data coming from Wuhan, China early in the year showed conclusively that the >70 year old population was at the greatest risk of infection and at the greatest risk of death, especially if they had co-morbitities. In addition, the first substantial outbreak of Covid-19 deaths in the US occurred at a nursing home in the Seattle area where upwards of 30 some patients eventually died. There was ample time for public health leadership at CDC, NIH and NIAID to assess this data and react appropriately. Instead, they accepted a since discredited statistical model from the Imperial College in London that grossly exagerrated the projected infection and death rates. Their recommendation from these erroneous projections was a draconian lockdown of essentially the entire world and a focus on ‘flattening the curve’. Obviously, a ‘cure’ that will be worse than the ‘disease’.

        The second comment that I take issue with is “We still have people today that take personal offense to wearing a mask in public. They seem to feel they are gods…” In a position paper written by the American Medical Association and published in JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association; April 21, 2020, Volume 323, Number 15) they state the following:

        “Face masks should be used only by individuals who have symptoms of respiratory infection such as coughing, sneezing, or, in some cases, fever. . . . Face masks should not be worn by healthy individuals to protect themselves from acquiring respiratory infection because there is no evidence to suggest that face masks worn by healthy individuals are effective in preventing people from becoming ill.”

        I dont know how asymptomatic carriers of the coronavirus fit into the policy statement above but it seems that unless they are coughing, sneezing there should not be a risk and therefore, no benefit to wearing a mask.

        Early in the coronavirus outbreak Drs. Fauci and Birx were vacillating back and forth on whether facemasks would be of benefit. Then, out of the blue a decree was handed down making it mandatory to wear facemasks whenever you leave your home. Public health policy-makers have shown poor leadership right from the start of this outbreak and it continues as such. However, the fear engendered in the populace by their fear-mongering and exaggerated infection and death rates has left permanent psychological damage that will forever affect our culture and civilization going forward.

    • George, evidence is taking shape that indicates the pandemic lockdown was on over-reaction that misdirected emergency medical measures and supplies:

      MY QUESTION W/H is…. WAS IT?

      Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University, Dept. of Finance & Economics

      Humankind is entering an unprecedented era in its history: an increasingly aging population. Combined with a shrinking populace, this situation will have an effect on almost every society on the planet. Whether it is sociological or economic, an aging population has severe ramifications that many nations must deal with including changing many long-held policies.”

      The thing is.. how many times have you heard how the people on Social Security are leaches in our society and going to bring it down.. How many times have you heard a story or read a story relating to those inpoverished on social programs.. today it is one in two.. a year and a half ago it was one in three..

      I could put a few studies on here.. but really we all have heard the stories.. what isn’t being contemplated is the Waitress economic outlook…. WEALTHY PEOPLE RELY ON those that are not for their Wealth.. todays post is really an eye opener.. because it shows the affects of the non wealthy EATERS that have stopped spending.. in a complex society like ours.. you need the social class diversification..each is dependent on the other..
      by social distancing it saved how many millions that would have perished if they hadn’ should also be an eye opener on just how dependent everyone is to the various classes and age groups of people..

      • The Waitress economy…. The wealthy don’t spend money.. they don’t tip and they demand more than the average laborer .. The average laborer will complain they don’t have enough but will tip more because they know that the average waitress depends on that tip to survive..

        When I delivered pizza’s and worked as a waiter.. that was all obvious.. the pizza companies would bribe the drivers to take the pizza to those neighborhoods.. unless it was a child. then everyone would beat themselves to be the one.. the children didn’t care and were the highest tipper of all.. because as one person running for office around here said to me.. Oh it wasn’t anything..its already paid for.. my daddy is rich…

      • We went out to eat at our favorite restaurant for breakfast last weekend. $29+ for three meals and I gave a $10 tip because our favorite waitress was tending to only half the customers she usually did after the place had been closed for all the time prior. You help who you can.

        But, again, I say to those above this post, when the usual air pollution in Wuhan was being effectively displaced by the exhaust from the mobile crematoriums as seen from satellite imagery for well over a month and Europe and Iran were lighting up from the virus what was any modern day politician to do? We had no idea what the virus was going to do to us in the U.S. and all the usual suspects were lining up for their feeding frenzy of profits. I’m sure there was other data none of us here have the pay grade to know then or now about what they were looking at back in January and February but one thing is certain – people were flying out of Wuhan to Thailand and the rest of the World all during the mess and neither China nor Thailand were saying anything. It was a politically impossible situation – damned if you do, damned if you don’t and all deaths were going to be laid at the feet of the administration regardless. Throw in the real, probable possibility that this was a crisis to be taken advantage of in light of the fact the World economy was spiraling down to an eventual crash anyway and the notion of a controlled crash becomes more appealing than one at an unknown time and circumstance.

        Arm-chair quarterbacking in hindsight is disingenuous at best and plays into the hands of the virus deniers that are really more pro-democrat than anything else.

    • buy me a hamburger today and I will pay you on tuesday… below popey the sailor and whimpy hamburger tuesday..

      what i found that was funny.. is long time ago in DC I worked a booth on the corner of Wisconsin and K street.. there next to the Rigs national bank was a pitiful man on a wheeled cart begging for spare change.. I felt sorry for this guy he looked so needy… so I would go down to a restaurant that I loved their sandwiches and would buy us both a great steak sandwhich and a soda frys.. I did this every time I worked.. selling jewelry and t-shirts.. LOL LOL then one day in the Washington Post was a front page story.. about this guy and he passed on.. he was a very wealthy man the ceo of several companies and did that to get more money LOL LOL LOL I never felt so stupid as I did…

      • That’s how I feel seeing the beggars on our street corners walking back to their cars in Wal-Mart or Target parking lots counting their take for the day. I won’t even look at them when I have to stop at the lights they frequent.

      • “That’s how I feel seeing the beggars on our street corners”

        Exactly… Now I help a few people here and there.. I am always looking for someone that is truly in need.. I usually tip large where ever I go to eat.. at least fifty to a hundred percent of the meals cost..sometimes even more..
        but like an abused person.. someone that is truly abused usually has their self esteem knocked down so far that they believe they deserve it.. they will even take a stand in support of the abuser… someone in need is more than likely trying to turn the tide themselves.. like a gentleman that I seen riding a bike in snow going to work.. their furnace broken beyond repair.. they were eating what the cat dragged in.. He had enough money to buy one jar of peanut butter every two weeks for a family of five.. or the can man that lived in our spare bedroom a couple of years.. he didn’t want anyone to know he was in a desperate spot.. he would say things like.. I was just experimenting to see how they do it.. LOL…
        I rarely give to someone begging on the corner.. there are so many.. I have done it long enough that I can see it.. the look in their faces.. or the way they act..
        give a wig to someone in the oncology wing.. you haven’t see anything until you seen the look in a young womans eyes when a beautician walks in and does a personal hair style and glamour.. or get some gift catalogs..
        for little kids I give a small stuffed animal webkinz.. and add a meal card for the parents.. they are going to loose everything they ever worked for for their childs health.. what is a nice meal to take their worries away even for a moment..

  4. George

    “One was released Wednesday in the Fed’s Beige Book report. ”

    Interesting color that Beige is!

    When I worked in a big corporate project management had their Brown Book that tracked different aspects of factory going’s on.

    And Brown is the color of S**T !

    Nobody wanted to get their name in the Brown Book – Kiss Of Death!

  5. “There…now you have a fair idea of our outlook toward the Future. Easy-peasy, huh?”

    In the end we’re all going to be dead! However, what’s the point of living to the end with all that frustration our knowledge causes? ;-((

    P.s. Eat, drink, and (at least try to) be merry, IMHO!

  6. Now wait a minute George Trumps right hand man Fauci states that this was not a man made virus or one out of a lab. so how can it be a bio weapon,and we all know those folks up there never lie.

    The virus came along at just the right time to be blamed for what was coming anyway a corrupt system that was running on vapors,held up by stock buy backs and cheap money. So we can blame the sorrows of the empire on China, after all they are getting to big for their britches and need to be taken down a few pegs anyway,good luck with that one.Perhaps its time to look at all those corrupt people that they run to elect time after time and then wonder why things keep getting worse instead of better.while they are getting richer.

    One economist states that once it bottoms out it will last a decade or longer, and he’s probably right as times have changed and no war can be created which won’t destroy them as well as the people.!!!

  7. So many police are out of control. No knock raids killing innocents for such tiny possible societal gains, mostly related to drug related busts. People especially in the black population have no trust at all for police. I have little trust, knowing how petty and power mad many of these folks have become. Most departments also use the laws as a fund raising mechanism for their departments. That action most negatively impacts the folks lower on the economic ladder again causing marks against their support.

    However the black community must get their young men under some level of control. People rightfully have more fear of being around young black men because they commit such a larger proportion of violent crime in the US. – Page 12, figure 12.

    Blacks are 13% of the population in these charts, yet commit 41% of violent crimes. If the black community want other groups to view them with less fear in uncontrolled circumstances, they must get control over this part of their populations.

    The other item of note, is I told my kids as my parents told me. Don’t f_ck around with the police, don’t back talk them, tease them, fight with them. They can and will use violent force against you as sanctioned by the state. There is no upside, best be passive and take your case to the prosecutor or jury.

    I am not sure if this is message is not shared culturally or black youths are just to proud to be belittled by the standard police procedures. But if I run from or fight the police I expect to be beat up or possibly killed. Once the hormones start pumping through an officers veins due to fight or flight, the outcome becomes un-predictable.

    • Not sure how you get those numbers. I just analyzed page 12 TABLE 12.
      If you’re going to be involved in a violent crime (and we hope you never are…) your odds (by race) pencil out like this:

      Of all violent crimes listed, blacks committed 1,155,570 of a total of 5,954,090 violent crimes. That 19.41% of perps.
      In contrast, whites committed 2,669,900 violent crimes ort (against basis total crimes) 44.84% of perps.

      That leaves us with >55% of violent crimes committed by non-whites.

      So we don’t need to make it sound worse than it is… I don’t see where you get the 41% figure you claimed?
      Help a brother out?

      Blacks are shown as 12 percent of population and 21.7 percent of violent offenders, but whites are 62.3% of population and 50.2% of violent offenders.

    • Dispatched police should not be approached, especially if you didn’t make the call. Let them know you see them, and go about your business, but make no sudden or threatening moves. If they give orders, obey them calmly, and if they ask questions, give short direct answers.
      There are potential predator and defensive responses you must avoid triggering if you are the target of an attempted murder by proxy. Rapidly closing the distance between you and the officer will get you shot through the face. Running away gets you shot through the back of the head. Excessive displays of fear or anger can get you beaten or hauled off. Staying dead calm but alert can save your life.
      And if you think that I have never been there, you would be dead wrong.

  8. Of all your wisdom today, this point stands out. “There is no herd immunity to stupidity”.

    The level of utter Dumb F%c&ery displayed at the Lake of the Ozarks, among other places, this past holiday is one prime example. Regardless of what you know/believe regarding Covid19 why in the effing hell would anybody want to go stand in a pool of sewage with several hundred other people? And now Minneapolis.

    Stay safe. 73

    • @ jim in MO

      did you mean FREE adults…enjoying freedom…alcohol and EACH other….since a KNOW fact is..their age group is NOT in peril with this virus….and in days of old…enough alcohol would ‘kill anything’

    • LOL! Well said. There are truly important reasons for people to risk social closeness, and to create a real relationship/partnership/marriage, it’s essential! Yes, people can defer such a quest for six months perhaps, but doing so for years will in most cases lead to a lost cause.

      Nearly every medical and dental procedure requires extreme closeness, as does a lot of construction and other industrial work. Let’s not forget such comfort services as massage and other personal care that really does matter for many people.

      Currently there’s a real backlash to the top-down enforcement of the CV-19 rules, including at least one bar in Texas(I think) that refuses to allow the use of masks at all. That backlash seems to be what happened at the Texas beaches and Lake of the Ozarks. The governors need to use a lighter and more intelligent touch – recruiting willing participants rather than relying on despotic edicts. Enforcing prescriptive “solutions” rather than focusing always on the target goal is guaranteed to alienate the population.

      • “Currently there’s a real backlash to the top-down enforcement of the CV-19 rules”

        This is why the “best” government is local. Congress rarely makes a law which is of benefit to everybody, everywhere in the U.S. Similarly, a Legislature seldom makes a law which will yield equal results for equal application within every political jurisdiction in a State. As corrupt as local bumpkins may be, they are still the most-likely to know what their District needs (or doesn’t), to personally receive either praise or condemnation for their political actions, and most-likely to reverse a call before it becomes a bane on the existence of their constituents (because they have not yet acquired enough money or power to achieve insulation from the unwashed masses within whose daily reach they live, AND because every decision they make, personally affects them, too…)

        As for Mini-hopolis, we do not KNOW that there was a racial component. The race “angle” was injected into the equation by media and political hacks. Is it possible? Yes — it’s even fairly likely — but no one KNOWS, other than the (now former) cops involved.

        I’ve seen my share of bad, dirty, and racially-prejudiced cops. I’ve also seen apprehensions which required a knee to the throat. What I’ve never seen is a scene where every officer present was racist, and I’ve never seen a perp who needed that knee for more than a few seconds — even the ones baked on PCP 40 years ago would settle down within a half-minute or less.

        Somehow, I’m thinking the Minneapolis thing was more a personal vendetta killing than it was a racially-motivated killing. With that said, we’ll never know because the “bad White guys killing Blacks” narrative will dominate “news” coverage and drive any viable information regarding the incident into the æther before it can ever be noted.

        Colored peoples (cuz there’s p!ssed Latinos in the streets, too) in LA are agitated by the incident and by the (to be nice, lets call it) “impatience” of their local gendarmes. They’re wound-up like tight-coiled springs by the lockdown we’re all going through. AND Soros’ BLM minions have been on the ground in ELA for more than 2 days, now (also a number of other towns, like Memphis, Chicago, and Baltimore), stirring up the locals.

      • “where every officer present was racist”

        I should’ve qualified that by saying: “Other than in historical newsreel footage, I’ve never seen… where every officer present was racist…”

  9. The police problem and its results is all part of the play. They know how this works, having done it so often in the past. There will be more of these things as summer draws near.

    Here is how you know: how many cops are trained to kneel on a neck like that? If people can grouse about 911 conspiracies, and plenty of red meat there, why is it hard to believe the “little lie”, that these events are purposeful.

    Distractions are a business model. Sewing seeds of distrust and discontent. We’ll have plenty of news (riots) to talk about this summer, so that business model has found an income stream. They’d love another LA riots to cover.

    • “how many cops are trained to kneel on a neck like that?”

      All of them. What they’re not trained to do is kneel on someone’s neck while other officers [are] holding his(her) body down, until they die. It is a means to subdue an unruly captive, meant to be used for a few seconds to settle the captive down so they won’t hurt themselves, not a means of execution. IMO the three cops directly-involved need hard time in a high-security prison’s GenPop…

      That still doesn’t excuse the two weeks of rioting we’re going to see because of this…

      • The key part of the question was “like that”. Meaning until death. They are not trained to do this, and in fact as you point out are trained to avoid killing people with this move.

      • “how many cops are trained to kneel on a neck like that?

        All of them.”

        …And my bad for not explaining this: They are all trained on planting a knee in the BACK of a perp or arrestee’s neck, not on his carotid artery. The idea is to pin an agitated person’s head against the ground to keep them from beating their brains out on pavement or an object, until they calm down enough to be loaded into a police car. IN NO WAY is the cop supposed to pin someone’s head in such a manner as to shut down either their airway or blood supply.

        Still sayin’ intentional execution; still sayin’ no evidence yet of racial motivation. Gimme the cop’s record. By all indications he had multiple write-ups. Were any of them racially-motivated? If not, cop dude and dead dude may have shared the same fraternity or avocation, or run in concentric or intersecting social circles…

        Don’t grow your own wool — Wait for actual information to make itself known (and know how to read the pressers, if it doesn’t), and don’t EVER assume anything any “newscaster” says is either true or accurate.

      • …And just surfaced: Cop dude and dead dude were co-workers at a Minneapolis night club and had worked coincident or overlapping shifts for more than a year.

        This incident is going to stink on several different levels. The most interesting thing about it may be the DIRECTIONS the media spins it all.

  10. speaking about being a skeptic… the SAFRA center has a good paper.. that is quite interesting..

    for myself.. I am trying to ignore its existance.. we are still social distancing but after talking to a friend that is really really sick with the covid19 and is just moseying about doing whatever.. well just like a comment to a tv station about a show.. they figure if there is one there are ten thousand that aren’t making that comment..
    It is going to be interesting… around here they are giving ulitmatums.. unemployment is going to end.. since the president and the state have decided it is no longer a threat..

  11. Trump said he would, “”rapidly” mobilize the U.S. military to distribute a coronavirus vaccine once it’s ready”.

    Deploy the troops now. Clearly, local police lost control.

    • @ OWS, what is the source of the President’s statement? It needs some context.

      Under Posse Comitatus, it is against Federal law to deploy military forces to perform inherently civilian law enforcement activities. Justification for drug interdiction is cut with a very sharp razor.

      Interesting that he ignores the virus to open the economy, thus the virus is not an emergency. However, he will deploy the military (beyond the National Guard, that might be called martial law) to dispense vaccines, thus the virus is an emergency.

      I wonder if mission creep will turn the deployment into martial law, timed to the release of the vaccine before the end of the year suggesting the election might be postponed or cancelled? Insurance, perhaps?

      Is there method in the madness?

      • Trump says he would mobilize military to distribute coronavirus vaccine when it’s ready

        “”We’re mobilizing our military and other forces but we’re mobilizing our military on the basis that we do have a vaccine. You know, it’s a massive job to give this vaccine. Our military is now being mobilized so at the end of the year we’re going to be able to give it to a lot of people very, very rapidly,” the president said. ”

      • I believe he can mobilize the States’ NG Regiments without violating Posse Comitatus. He can also tap the Military to distribute a medicine to State NG Units, leaving it up to each State’s Governor to dispense.

        The “suspension of elections” mimes are all propagated by stupid people who’ve never read the Constitution or taken a Civics class. The President’s term in office ends, without recourse, at 12:00 noon EST on January 20th. If Trump postpones or eliminates the Election, Pelosi becomes interim or “pro tempore” President from 12:01PM on January 20th, until the Senate names a new President.

      • “Interesting that he ignores the virus to open the economy, thus the virus is not an emergency. However, he will deploy the military (beyond the National Guard, that might be called martial law) to dispense vaccines, thus the virus is an emergency.”

        Unfortunately Joe.. I think it was FEAR.. that struck him that had him open the economy.. he should have gone option 1 or option 3 rather than option 2 option two left the velocity of cash in flow.. without cash in flow.. I am not sure what each of his resorts takes in on a daily basis… or how much the expenses to maintain them sitting idle costs for my home the cost to maintain the building is a buck a foot give or take a few pennies…. ( if not maintained a building will fall apart..)
        after a month seeing a monthly outpouring of cash.. he got a glimpse of what the laboring class was facing with finances stalled… not being able to pay rent.. the stimulous was a crumb not enough to pay the bills just enough to basically buy groceries and toilet paper..
        He has what eleven places.. each I am sure rents their rooms at high prices.. all empty.. a loyal band of employees.. he had to let hundreds go.. kept a few on staff to maintain the building that was sitting idle.. He didn’t want to go bankrupt again.. the virus seems to attack the weak and the elderly the most.. so why not go back to work.. get the flow moving.. it won’t helpthe dollar was in serious trouble before.. but heck I definately see his point of view..

      • There is no vaccine currently to any coronovirus, and we’ve been working on this for my lifetime. When we have a vaccine to the common cold, we’ll be ready to make a vaccine against SARS-COV-2.

        Any injection currently called a vaccine against the current virus is NOT what it’s said to be. Until such a thing has a record of safety and efficacy spanning years or decades, we’re not justified in mass injecting anyone, and never if doing such a thing involuntarily.

    • Be very careful of what you wish for,for you may not like an excuse for them to shut the whole country down under military control.!!!

  12. From Pink Floyd to George Floyd:”Another brick through the window.”

    Powell gave the police the order.Nobody can make their own competing currency.Ask JFK.

    • what a mess….. and what is funny is no one learned from the past riots.. It won’t solve anything.. the fear will bring in the guys with the big guns to stop the looting and raping building burning.. they attack their very own neighborhoods.. of course if they had gone to lets say the mayors neighborhood they wouldn’t have gotten such a big riot…. some One I was visiting with owns a building that was burned.. they think insurance will cover it.. (NOPE GUESS AGAIN) during the rodney king riots.. twenty years later they are still wondering why Rays market didn’t open back up and now they have to drive across town to buy groceries.. let me see they destroyed his business looted his inventory raped his wife and daughter.. why wouldn’t he want to reopen in such a nice neighborhood.. of course we found out years after it that there was a few puppeteers that were paying people to be violent.. I wonder if that isn’t happening now..
      its just another brick in the wall..
      one of my favorite songs from floyd..
      another brick in the wall….

  13. Assisted care places are staffed by low paid workers that go room to room, in this case spreading wuflu. When they saw the old folks getting deathly ill and quickly spreading; a lot of them quit showing up for work, lest they suffer the same fate. That left fewer caregivers trying to serve the sick who also then needed additional help, more liquids and more food; instead, they got less than normal. The dead coming from assisted living suffered as much from neglect as virus.

    The best data on spread rate and percentage of symptomless would come from the ships and the meat packing plants. Where the hell is it?

    • “Assisted care places are staffed by low paid workers that go room to room, in this case spreading wuflu. When they saw the old folks getting deathly ill and quickly spreading; a lot of them quit showing up for work,”

      thats not entirely true.. well at least not around here.. yes the assisted living pays low wages.. so do Hospitals.. as one hospital ceo once told me.. if I could drive down to mexico with a bus I would.. I can hire three of them to one american.. his income at the time was a little over a million a year.. while the average floor staff was making four dollars an hour.. today.. floor staff starts out at nine dollars and fifty cents an hour.. if you have experience you make up to fifteen dollars an hour top wage is just shy eighteen and you have to be there for almost thirty years to get it..
      Nursing wages start out I think at twenty four.. in eighty nine they made five dollars an hour.. aids made three dollars an hour.. nursing facilities short shift.. when I was forced into retirement.. I was still on the schedule for almost five years before they took my name off of the daily schedule.. we use to call them ghost aids..NOW the reason.. for an assisted living center the average monthly cost is between two thousand five hundred and four thousand dollars a month.. most assisted living you buy your apartment.. the cost for a ten by fifteen apartment..when I took my mom and dad to check them out it was a hundred and twenty grand plus the five grand a month maintenance.. they supplied breakfast.. but meals were extra.. one load per week of flat laundry a month you paid for cable.. ( its still like that except the one here they do their personal laundry and supply all three meals.. )
      I tell my wife to not worry about the wage.. my hope is that the guy can keep the doors open until she can get cheaper medical through medicare..
      so you have on average a nurse one assistant per wing one cook one maintenance man and the manager.. the place has about five thousand square feet of space to heat and cool. there are eighteen residents each pays two thousand one hundred dollars a month..
      the evening shift there is one nurse on call and two assistants night one assistant.. ( there is suppose to be two)
      I am wondering.. do you see the issue… as to why they schedule short.. people that work in the medical field are really dedicated .. NOW.. I have taken care of people that no one would go in to take care of them because of fear.. that is way true.. one was the wife of a prominent surgeon that did his summer to africa to do surgery so he could deduct it off of his taxes.. and he didn’t wash.. his wife caught the bug that he carried home.. it was horrific.. another was a woman that caught MRSA at the hospital after surgery.( I am waiting on G2 and his book on MRSA to see what he has experienced) . it was horrific.. she would rip her intestines out and toss them on the floor the green seepage was nasty we would tape trash bags around her and tie bed sheets to the bed frame..( now they have a let them drop law.. no side rails and no restraints what so ever.. they have that right .. no matter what.. trust me the drop and flop law is way real.. they have high low beds now so that they can drop the bed to the floor and they can give them a foot ball helmet.. and elbow pads.. but no lap buddies or lap tables.. no side rails .. and you cannot tape a trash bag around someones midrif or tie bed sheets to the rails to keep them from ripping their intestines out.. )
      another one was a woman that didn’t get her yearly checkup.. she got cancer and the necrotic tissue was so bad that the nurses would not go in..So I and a couple of others would go in and debri the wound it was scary since you were debriing around the aorta.. she was one of the nicest ladies I have ever met.. it was sad.. and a few others..
      Usually when something like that it is not so much the fear factor.. good lord knows I have seen a lot.. but the fear that something horrific will happen and not have the equipment to deal with it.. one instance was at the hospital.. code blue.. working in the ER.. just started there.. we get up there.. it was day one.. code blue and everyone says.. well you have more experience with this than we do and left. LOL LOL it was day one with a green.. I was just a kid.. and it was the cardiac wing to boot.. the guy lived.. but hey.. I was terrified.. the whole time..
      Now I am not working at the hospital anymore or for the hospitals. but I have a ton of people that I know all working there.. working long hours and short shifts is a given.. it is the medical field and after laying out what they are looking at.. you can see why management schedules short shift.. its the only flexible expense.. environmental is going to go up so is food.. and eighteen people won’t cover the cost.. food alone will run six grand.. that is three residents rent.. now figure in three nurses at a minimum of twenty four dollars an hour for eight hours seven days a week.. and the rest.. not counting the cost of electricity gas water sewer lawn maintenance.. and that isn’t even counting the cost of all the extra crap that the federal govt decides you need to have.. like fire extinguishers.. not just having them.. you have to go and have them inspected.. ( they dunk them in a bucket of water tip them upside down and beat them with a rubber mallet.. or put them in the drop machine to do the same thing.. thirty five dollars per fire extinguisher.. and every two years you have to buy a new one.. the equipment.. medi lift.. easy stand per wing.. now you can buy those not being a medical facility and pay one tenth of what the real medical cost is.. three hundred for home.. at a facilty its three grand plus.. around here.. I don’t know anyone anywhere that has missed just because they were afraid they would catch it.. one place had half of the residents and one third of the staff all sick with it.. the aids keep working.. the homes around here have a no excuse rule to.. they don’t give a dam if your sick or not.. you miss your out.. doesnt matter if it is illness or weather.. one lady I worked with has really bad asthma she had to go to the ER the doctor was going to admit her.. she said no doc.. give me a shot or an inhaler I have to be at work.. he said no you don’t realize you are really needing to be admitted.. she said no my employer won’t understand.. he asked where she worked.. she said here. he called she went to work.. that is how it is.. now its different for those in management.. the social worker that visits with us over the gentleman we let sleep in our spare room use to work there.. because of her positon she had.. they could even take their vacation time..
      short shifts. absolutely.. all the time.. I wish I had a dollar for every day where it was just me.. the crew leaving patting me on the back.. that was tag your it.. and a hundred people to take care of.. think I am joking.. I only wish.. Now a cute story.. way back in 97.. I was the only one on grave.. dam I was sending people in to apply they were telling me that they weren’t hiring.. so my neice was being born I was sitting in the waiting room and I thought.. hell how would any of these kids remember me.. they weren’t born yet when I started here.. so..
      I moseyed down to the personell and applied for my job.. wanna know what they told me.. WE AREN’T HIRING.. that night I get to work and the DON started in with how they just couldn’t find anyone.. I said speaking about that.. they hired my best friend the very next day.. Now that was in 97.. My daughter had a pulmonary embolism.. a year and a half ago.. I walk in and they had added on and moved things around a little bit.. I am walking down the hall and a young man early twentys comes out.. calls me by name askes if he can direct me and shows me where the coffee pot is.. he wasn’t even born when I pulled that stunt yet he knew me by name.. it happens all the time now.. I have scoped out the dest to see if they have my picture with the term.. smart azz .. and yes anyone applying is still told.. we are not hiring..
      I tell all my doctors if you don’t want a three am call .. don;t write a stupid order.. write.. if after hours let the oncall treat with follow up during normal working hours.. I could tell you all kinds of stories about the way doctors treat the nurses late night all because they wrote some idiotic orders that the nurse has to follow.. and no other doctor will touch the patient with those orders in the charts..
      the one thing I did learn.. I will never see it all.. it takes a bit to surprise me.. but yup.. I still get surprised.. the minute you think you seen it all.. something really strange will come up and shock the hell out of you..

      • “looking out of the box,” You’re indeed one of a kind. I could follow your narrative as though I’d lived through it myself. ;-) You are a good person!

  14. from about 3 hrs north of minneapolis:
    Went out for a walk Wed. afternoon, drove to the other side of town. The beach was packed with tourists. Drive back a protest had formed w/about 50 diverse, energized people and more showing up. Mostly college age+. Thought it was McDonald’s but it was for Floyd. Waved, honked, smiled and drove on. Shed a tear as I was reminded of Vietnam war days. Peace then / Respect now?
    Evening news showed the crowd surrounded, traffic blocked in 4 directions by matching blackout windowed police suvs.

    Peception is odd. I saw a show of force and flaunting of wealth by the police with such a large fleet and so many boots on ground in our small, overtaxed community. The wife just saw the force protecting the protesters.

    • Twitter tagged a Trump-hating neosocialist elitist to run a “fact-check” on President Trump’s tweets.

      That fact-check, the first made, was erroneous.

      What did they think would happen?

      Trump’s reaction is obvious and completely predictable.

      A MUCH BETTER QUESTION is: Who wanted the FCC to regulate social media, and why did they want this regulation to begin, at this point in time?

  15. the first post nailed it in this thoughtful topic.. its the debt and they are scared the federali and other centrali bees.. the lockdowns where purposeful with the stimuli to reflate and reset and precisely drop money supply to stop inflation .. yes George stop inflation.. it will come but not before a lot more pain .. that’s like a 3 down or a massive wack c .. listened to the great nouriel roubini last night and the top of this thread ties it all together .. karen carpenter is back .. weve only just begun .. the black brother , oil , he knows the truth .. watch out below

  16. George, the asset debt macroeconomic system is deterministic. The fractal growth and decay composite equity and CRB valuation cycles are fractally quantitative. The two basic fractal patterns are x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6y and y/2-2.5y/1.5-2.5y. This simple self- assembly mathematical pattern confers on the asset debt system macroeconomic system the quality of a science. The second sub fractal cycle series determines the ideal base first fractal length. The US third fractal starting in 1932 is composed of two fractal series: 10-11/21-22/21-22 years (y/2y/2y) ending in 1982 and 9/20/12 of 12 years y/2-2.5y/1.5y years ending in 2020. Global central banks must print money; the other choice is a 1930’s deflationary depression which is politically and social unacceptable and not a choice. This money creation will not result in an inflationary scenario. Too much private money is owed. Sufficient money will be created and added to kept the system solvent. With an initiating fractal of 18 years in 1790 near the inception of the US constitution, the subsequent 1807 x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5y US hegemonic fractal series is 36/90/89/54 years ending in 2073. See if you can determine the daily fractal series since the March 2020 low. Hint: a major trading low will occur in three more trading days. Bad (but expected) data came out today. Will the low in here trading days be a function of the bad data or a function of the mechanistic trading high and low saturation self assembly nature of the macroeconomic asset debt system?


    Total cases: 647 (3 newly reported)
    Hawai’i County: 82
    Honolulu County: 417
    Kaua’i County: 20
    Maui County: 118†
    Pending: 0
    Residents diagnosed outside of Hawai‘i: 10
    Required Hospitalization: 83‡
    Hawaii deaths: 17
    Released from Isolation: 604§
    Cumulative totals as of 12:00pm, May 28, 2020

    Three new cases in Honolulu. Still festering.

  18. … Will the low in …. three …. trading days be a function of the bad data or a function of the mechanistic trading high and low saturation self assembly nature of the global macroeconomic asset debt system?

  19. The ruling minority federal government with support of the third in size party has achieved a four month deferral in the normal sitting of Parliament. Apart from token committees, government decisions will continue by decree, and close budget scrutiny will be out of sight. Pundits are suggesting that Canadian federal covid-19 expenditures may already be at 50% an amount of the entire federal government 2019 budget.

    By the way for those looking skywards this weekend from launchpad 39, back in the day the Dornier Do X prototype made a trek to the New World in stylish manner. And dinner was served!

  20. Hippy dalio should hang his head in shame. America burns pandemic rules and he wants to buy gold. Greedy sith patriot fool . Him and his garbage Bridgewater . Fool. And shorted Italy not America. A unique californian type

  21. There is very little that can be believed about the COVID op. Just one of those is the death count. The death toll is highly questionable as it includes people who died from heart disease (600,000 annually), cancer (600,000 annually), strokes (150,000 annually). It also includes people who died from COPD, asthma, other lung diseases (140,000 annually), Alzheimer’s (100,000 annually), diabetes (100,000 annually), and kidney disease (75,000 annually).
    The government pays hospitals $13,000 for every COVID patient admitted and $39,000 for every one they put on a ventilator, plus additional funds if the death is listed as due to COVID. Typically influenza is NOT counted as the cause of death if other diseases are present.
    I personally suspect there are many agendas for this plandemic, one being to condition the world population to accept living in a 24/7 surveillance police state, something we must loudly reject.

    • “I personally suspect there are many agendas for this plandemic, one being to condition the world population ….. ”

      and the fact that there are just too many of us. It amazes me that this finds too little popular understanding, IMHO! “plandemic,” indeed ;-(.

Comments are closed.