Data Dangers: M2, Virus Mortality, Coup Leaders

Up early this morning.  We have much to discuss, hence the Epistle-length report.

Data Danger #1: M2 Collapsing

The first is a major story about the future of America’s economy.  Buried by the China virus and the ongoing demo-Coup coverage, the Velocity of Money is free-falling again.

What it is:  “Velocity” is the Gross Domestic Product divided by the H.6 Money Stock M2 (cash, equivalents, and certain time deposits).

Why it matters:  Money, like electrons, don’t do a damn thing unless they are in motion.  Another simple way to consider M2  is “It’s the inventory turn-over rate of money.”

Why It’s a Disaster:  As you can see, the latest GDP out Thursday along with the 3-month average M2, has begun to decline again and is likely in Q1 to set a new all-time (as in lifespan of Nation) bottom.  Worse that 2009.  Worse than the Great Depression.   Check out the historical view:

To be sure, the number did not – yet- set a new low, but that’s only thanks to averaging.  If you look only at the monthly figures, not averaged for the Q4 period, you’ll see the Ve;locity at M2 is down to 1.413.  The previous (though quarterly) low was 1.432…so we’re on the verge of breaking lower.

What it Portends:  Yeah, this is an ugly.  As noted above, money in motion is what makes jobs, returns on investment and even stimulates higher interest rates.  Despite the Fed’s crazy ongoing Quantitative Pleasing (or financial types) the money being created is NOT creating additional economic activity.  It’s like creating money for the mafia to put in the bank and not loan out, invest in research, build new plants and equipment.

On the other hand, there’s a reason for money cratering.  A long time, ongoing concept around here has been the notion of Consumer Super-Saturation.  Wal-Mart is sending me (another) 65-inch TV this week.  (Best time to load up on TV gear is just before and after Super Bowl, right?).  $393.11 which includes free delivery and tax.  Not a fancy curve-screen ors a super-looking OLED, but in terms of cost-per-pixel?  Gotta be kidding me.

Consumer-Saturation is a real thing.  In the USA we have 253-million cars.  More than one-per person if we back out children and seniors past driving, right?  What is  enough?  Want to guess at how many excess televisions there are?  As I ask in the book “ The 100-Year Toaster” – which has been serialized on the subscriber site – we have built an insane world based on optimizing  financ ial instruments, not based on improvintg quality of life – regardless of what the “Free-Trade” tax dodgers want to claim.

Danger #2:  A Killer Virus Comes

Despite a few readers who have made questionable (OK, idiotic, too) comments to the effect that NoCoV2019 is a “nothing” we disagree.  We see it has having a mortality rate of well over 2-percent.  And, since it’s going global, with 7.6 billion people in the world, that’s a  potential body count of 152-million, although the December virus “war-game” figured 65-million…and too early to waste time on such nits.

What it is:  Mortality rate is the number of people getting a disease divided by the deaths attributed to it.

As of this morning the number of cases in China was reported at 9.809 (al Jazeera) with a death toll of 213.  That’s a higher number than  The Guardian reports:  Over 9,320 cases but again, 213 dead.  The  Guardian death rate pencils to 2.2 percent while the Al Jazeera pushes out to 2.17 percent.

We told you to order N100 masks last week.  Now they’re going out of stock.  Well, again, we tried…

Why It Matters:  A 2 percent mortality rate this early in a disease is quite remarkable.  Simple math here – I promise this won’t hurt.  The typical incubation time for the disease while spreading has been 8-14 days according to early reports.  Let’s say it’s 10-days on  average.

Thus, we can  wildly and irresponsibly estimate that the “Dead of today” were infected (half the incubation period?) 5-days ago.  All that remains to be done is look up the five-days ago infected number and use  today’s death count.

Using this approach, we would take today’s death toll (213) and divide that by 5-day-ago confirmed cases (WHO sit-rep last Sunday here) was 2,014 cases. This kind of approach suggests to us a death toll around 10.57 percent which is up in Spanish Flu death rate levels.

The Sounder Alternate View:  There is a much more accurate (and formal) method of estimating death rates.  It’s laid out in the SIR Model explained on the Mathematical Association of America website.

Tackling the problem (as the SIR model does) as a differential equation is a more accurate view.  But we stick to “simple estimations” because in 50-years of chasing down the news,  estimations – the earlier and more accurate the better – are fine for simple personal planning.  For more advanced readers, MAPLE, Mathematica, and MatLab models may be found (thanks to the MAA) here.

What It Portends:  There may be a reason in our first concern (cratering money supply) for the lac k of money velocity based on Danger #2, the coronavirus outbreak.

Not to be missed: Russia Reports First Coronavirus Infections.  And they locked down their border promptly.

As we read headlines like “Supply Chain Disruptions From China’s Coronavirus Outbreak Could Affect US Manufacturing” we come up with an almost woo-woo-like question forming.  Did the U.S.-centdric global economic  forecast or in some what  know this was coming?  In other words, is the event about to become so “writ large” in the global mass consciousness that it “back-casts a shadow” that colors behavior prior to an actual global-impacting event?

Last point:  Whenever you read the news, look for the dateline and posting time.  I am terribly disappointed (as a journo) when people post comments (“just 170 dead compared to the population of China is nothing,,,.) that reflects both old data and a lack of ability to project obvious trends into the future.

Stay current, or stay quiet.

Stories like Goldman Sachs expects coronavirus outbreak to weigh on US economic growth this quarter aren’t particularly useful other than PR points for name familiarity…and to give the Street cover for being WILDLY overpriced. While the big players unwind trades.

As we explained in Peoplenomics, the slow-witted sheep missed Ben Bernanke’s AEA speech and paper this month that QE “makes up” (hiding’s more like ) as much as 3%.  So, yes:  Real inflation is closer to 4-1/2%, not 1-1/2% and that little ugly makes stocks over-priced by how much???

Danger #3: Coup, Pricks, and Treason

I am so utterly disgusted in the CENSORSHIP by Cheap Just-Us John Roberts – not letting Senator Rand Paul ask a straight-forward question at the Senate kangaroo trial of Donald Trump that I could just spit.

As one of our “smartest guy in the room” contributors, “ warhammer” noted in an early morning post:

“The real issue rests with the silence of the rest of the Senate regarding the censoring Of Sen. Paul’s question by Roberts.

“In the first presidential impeachment trial in 1868, Chief Justice Salmon Chase claimed the authority to decide certain procedural questions on his own, but the Senate challenged several of his rulings and overruled him at least twice.”


Roberts has (thus far) successfully hijacked the Senate Trial and it’s a terrible commentary on republican sell-outs to principles (including and especially RINOs like “Mittens”) that we are nearly at a loss for words.

But wait!  There IS a major question no one is asking:  It goes like this (and I want you tdo really think about this):

“When an attempt is made to unseat a lawfully elected President, and when a four-year series of lies is obviously orchestrated by persons affiliated with a former administration, at what point does a factually deficient impeachment attempt cross over into attempted coup territory?”

My belief is that when members of the U.S. House employed their staff to coach an implanted whistleblower, it constituted an attempt to “entrap” an elected president.  As it did this, the line between  dissent and  insurrection was passed.

Moreover, this whole shit-show – especially the role of ex Obama implants and all communitations with them in the set-up to the entrapment, illegal surveillance, and sham “impeachment”  needs to be investigated by a Grand Jury.

And if treason is found, regardless of past office’s held or public servic e (fattening healthcare), prosecution with proper penalities applied is the only track Justice allows.

Ah…the fairytale for the little peeps:  “One Nation, Under God, with Liberty and Justice for All” who can afford it.

Again,. “We the People” have been outbid by swamp-snakes and politcal hacks on all sides.  The virus and finance blowing up were going to get us anyway…

While the Senate may dismiss charges on a vote today (even here don’t hold your breath – corruption and evil own D.C.), if they do so without criminal referrals and censure of Roberts overstep, it will just be “business as usual.”

This Will Piss You Off

Labor Department outs the Deep State (again) in figures just released this morning:

State and Local Government Workers

Compensation costs for state and local government workers increased 2.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2019. In December 2018, the increase was 2.6 percent. Wages and salaries increased 2.5 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2019 and 2.4 percent a year ago. Benefit costs increased 3.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2019. The prior year increase was 3.1 percent.

As compared with:

Civilian Workers

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2019, compared to 2.9 percent in December 2018. Wages and salaries increased 2.9 percent over the year and increased 3.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2018. Benefit costs increased
2.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2019. In December 2018, the increase was 2.8 percent.

Notice how they toss in 2-year old (2018) data to cover-up that they’re getting ahead of regular working people who don’t enjoy government (taxpayer) largess for years?  Nothing to see here, move along… BS!  Come on…who’s working for who?

Next bad news…anyone?  BEA Personal expenditures and Disposable Personal Income (DPI) going the wrong way again:

Personal income increased $40.7 billion (0.2 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $30.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.6 billion (0.3 percent) (table 5).

Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in December and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent.

So, it’s true again:  The harder we work, the behinder we get!  Thanks, FedGov.  Astroglide with the next report, maybe?

Short Takes

While we’re waiting to see what the next democrat fake-hysteria crisis will be, take note that in the Impeachment trial: Key Republican says he’ll vote against witnesses.  Not all stupid, after all?  The House failed to make a case and the Senate is just voting what (mainly wasn’t) presented in the way of “evidence” – even after the Censor in Cheap decision… (I gotta get past this, but I’m seriously pissed at judge-shopping and constitutional-ignoring lawyers screwing up the country…)

Is this another liberal, open-borders whine at CNN?More Iranian students are being deported at US airports, advocates say.”  Carrying the water for Tehran infiltrators, perhaps?  You  do realize we pay for a lot of education for foreign nationals, right?  Whee!  Let’s give it ALL AWAY!!!!  We don’t need Bernie if the Socialists hold the House, right AOC fans?

Crooked Euro-dope notes:  Here we go with another round as EU stupidity: British Steel: France in threat to veto sale.  Meanwhile, you may be asking (as CBS does) What actually changes, and when, with Brexit?.

Climate hysteria rebirth as ‘Every Day Matters’: Guardian Stops Accepting Fossil Fuel Ads. Try to remember Earth has been warming since the Ice Age…OMG people are sheep!

Remember the old Usury Rhyme? “Bah-bah dumb sheep have you any fool?  Yes sir, yes sir, two houses full!!”

And here, it seems like the NY Times getting business as wrong as they got “impeachment” as Wall St. Shrugs Off Risks Related to Viral Outbreak in China.  Can we revisit this in a few weeks?  I mean Dopw futures down 130 and only an idiot would hold long going into a Super Bowl and Viral weekend…

OK, chasing chow, massive long list of to-do’s and tomorrow’s Peoplenomics podcast to prep for.  May require a nap.

Meantime, here, takes this $45-billion of fresh repo-creepo and go BTFD, would you?

Write when you get rich,

70 thoughts on “Data Dangers: M2, Virus Mortality, Coup Leaders”

  1. The ChiComs, the ChiCOms, the ChiComs are on fire.
    The ChiComs, the ChiComs, the ChiComs are on fire.
    The ChiComs, the ChiComs, the ChiComs are on fire.
    We dont need no water let the MF’er burn,
    Burn MF’er – Burn!

    Ohh Nooo – reports coming out of Wuhan of bodies being burned, limited daily amount of Test Kits available at Hospitals – most are turning people away – shelter/die in place. Official count of Infections way off/ severely under counted. Turns out the movie was the message – only no Zombies..yet

    2nd rule of survival – Zombies is….ALWAYS DOUBLE TAP!
    3rd rule applies as well .. BEWARE OF BATHROOMS!

    Good Luck Urban Survialites

  2. M2 – the bailouts are coming.

    Stopping flights = the airlines are setup for a bailout.

    Boeing is setup for a bailout.

    The Medical Complex is going to need a bailout as a consequence of the Coronavirus. Note: it seems only the Chinese in China are dying from the Coronavirus.

    The pension funds that bought school loans will need bailouts.

    Illinois needs a bailout.

    Add your own.

  3. … at what point does a factually deficient impeachment attempt cross over into attempted coup territory?

    George, the word “coup” caught my eye. Stu at The Age of Desolation is thinking the same.

    “I do suspect that the impeachment will fail to remove Trump, but a coup d’état will not fail. In fact, I suspect that it will be Trump’s impeachment acquittal that will lead to the coup d’état.”

    • Hmm nothing strange about it now,as Bush said “your either with us or agin us” and Trumps with them but I rather doubt that there;s a chance in hell that the republican congress will dump a republican president,as they will speak no evil of their own party or a member of it,he’s there for the duration live with it get us to it for this is only window dressing for the chattering mass’s.!!!

  4. Wow, you’re in great form this morning.

    I see a couple of important lessons showing up from the Coronvirus scare.

    I live in a medium size (400,000) population city in Canada. A good senior friend of mine was rushed to hospital last night very sick with sepsis. Not a single hospital bed available in the city. Flu season is in full swing. Kept him overnight in the hallway, set him up with Antibiotic IV and sent him home with nurse followup daily to administer antibiotics.

    During a pharmacy visit yesterday, I jokingly asked the pharmacist if he had any face masks. He told me they got 500 in on Tuesday and they were gone in an hour. Has no idea if or when he will get more. I think they mostly come from China and read this morning that people there are obtaining them for their pets. We may have a long wait!

    Point is George, you have preached about preparedness for longer than I can remember. People will panic and heaven help us if we get hit with a really serious pandemic or EMP or ??? We have seen it with hurricanes and blizzards. The grocery store shelves empty fast.


  5. Double up on the BP meds. What does all this BS point to? Do you really need to ask?

    If the majority of people are of average intelligence and given they are at least somewhat informed the only reliable answer is they are too lazy and are satisfied with being sheep. All it takes is to look at the behavior of most of these politicians. If votes truly are counted how in the flipping hell are they elected over and over again?

    Those who educate themselves, prepare and strive to do what they believe is the right thing is held aside and looked at as deplorable.

    The outcome of the impeachment proceeding is pre-ordained whichever way it goes. God help us.


    • “how in the flipping hell are they elected over and over again? ”

      Robert Byrd…

      Byrd was a Senator from West Virginia for a half century (M/L) and was a hardcore Liberal in a conservative State. He was a card-carrying, ranking member of the Klan (until about 1970) and a general bully and pr!ck when he didn’t get his way.

      You can not drive a half-hour, anywhere in WVa, without seeing his name on something.

      No matter how self-serving or un-American a National politician is, both with respect to voting record and rhetoric, if he or she “brings home the bacon” to the home district, they’ll be re-elected for damn’ near as long as they wish to run. American voters are notoriously far-sighted. They have no trouble identifying “bad” representatives from districts not their own, but are incapable of seeing the commie, crook, or megalomaniac in their own back yard…

      • “how in the flipping hell are they elected over and over again? ”

        I have no idea Ray.. it shocks the hell out of me as well..

    • Could be that these politicians are “elected” by rigged voting machines rather than by actual voters.

    • “Double up on the BP meds”

      There isn’t any need to double the meds Jim.. we are but a few of the american public and what we think really doesn’t matter in the grand scope of the events happening now that was forseen centuries ago.. if we keep voting in the same old group why would we even consider them doing something they have never done before. Instead they will continue to do the exact same job the same way they always have.. in order for it to change would take a complete overhall of everyone that is running for office and that will never happen. my theory is.. if we keep electing the cook that doesn’t know how to cook and they can’t read the cook book then we deserve to eat the meal they set before us.

  6. The current American economy is like watching the venerable SR-71 go from an incredible piece of mechanical artwork to a million disassociated pieces in a heartbeat due to an invisible and unforeseen wave in the atmosphere. The faster you go the less of an anomaly it takes to turn you into a descending fireball.

  7. George, regarding over-saturation and velocity, yes, excellent, excellent points. However, regarding velocity, do not overlook that the tax cuts (83%) to the rich and to stock buybacks had a dismal velocity of .67. That is, that borrowed money was injected into the wrong places — where it overwhelmingly was not re-spent. Versus injecting that deficit stimulus into the Middle Class where necessity forces everything to be spent. Hence, we got only a modest uptick in the economy, that lasted for well less than one year, and a huge increase in the national debt. Very little bang for the borrowed buck. And now the Conservatives crying for still more deficit stimulus sugar. This is the problem with following Conservative mantra (here, trickle down) to it’s logical conclusion. Best, Mike.

  8. G, great update today. The “delayed” number analysis for the virus is a good back of the envelope method of getting a “general ballpark” figure for the death rates of those who are sick enough to actually go to the hospital, though I am sure that like in the US wrt the regular flu there are several times more people who have a lighter case of the disease who never go to the hospital and thus are not in the “reported cases” number.

    The death rate of those infected is much lower than with Ebola or even SARS, but the infection rate is much much higher since this disease seems to be very easily transmitted (and caught), much like the regular seasonal flu.

    2%, or even a 1/2 of 1% death rate of those sick enough to go to the hospital adds up to potentially a few million dying if the infection rate is as high as it is looking like it will be. (during the Spanish Flu I believe I once read the worldwide infection rate was around 30%+ of all souls then living – this disease could be just as virulent).

    The economy and more normal stuff:
    Obviously exports from China are going to crater once the product that is already in the shipping pipeline finally arrives in Long Beach since factory production there is cratering. People imo still are NOT factoring in the economic impact of the that product supply being cut off, including the “parts” that manufacturers here in the US import so as to incorporate into the stuff that they “manufacture here”.

    The other item of note even before that import issue arises is that already the velocity of money is collapsing. It is something that nobody else but you is talking about but is important for understanding how FED policy is affecting the economy. With a very low and declining velocity of money the Fed is doing the proverbial pushing on a string dynamic … with most money they push out thus going into financial assets vs. assisting the real economy.

    Keep up the good work!!

  9. After the 60 comments from a few days ago, and as a subscriber I would like to make a comment please. I appreciate that George added a comments section to his blog. I think it adds a bit of value to the daily read and can be fun. But sometimes some people can get a bit carried away with expressing their own personal viewpoints, and can go on too long, and point out too much.

    I’m not going to name names, but some of you folks have got

    And what could better describe the point I’m trying to make than the poetic first line of the song.

    Sittin’ on this barstool, talkin’ like a damn fool
    got those twelve o’clock news blues

    Oh sure, I’m 65 years old and aside from a side hustle I’m pretty much retired, so I get it. At times I too suffer from the title of the song (like now) even though I have a substantial to-do list. But come on people, can’t we put on our big boy and big girl pants and demonstrate a little bit of emotional intelligence? And to get your blood pressure up over such amateur theatrics.

    Discussing polarizing viewpoints is important, but can’t we do better than “the entire contents of your brain comes from your one-sided cable news network.” Sorry to say, that argument is nothing short of pathetic and is the proverbial pot calling the kettle black.

  10. REPO Market is Wall Streets “too big to fail” bailout. I think you got it right George, the Walls are cracking. Wall Street shorts lost billions on Tesla. Markets need time to make some repairs to continue this rally. Certain Key end of blowoff figures have not been met yet, so rally should resume after a pause to let the last scam perculate & heal.

  11. “What it is:  Mortality rate is the number of people getting a disease divided by the deaths attributed to it.”

    Think about this as a business model for just a moment..

    What is the plan of action in a pandemic situation..
    How many people does a person meet in just one day.. a two week gestation.
    You get let’s say a hundred in a city of a million..the statistical odds are you had close quarter contact with five hundred to a thousand a day.. if one percent catch it .. that why china shut down the city.. everything came to a hault.. all business all travel everything . No school or malls selling .. total quarantine.. whe I was a kid one of us had the measles.. they slapped a sheet of paper by the door and we couldn’t leave for a month..
    They dont pay you our Bill’s etc. You still have to pay your own way .

  12. George

    I want to pass on some important information that could help people get water in a SHTF situation.

    It’s info on a contraption called a Bailer Bucket and it no ordinary bucket. It will allow you to get water easily from any well without a pump. It’s elegant engineering, it’s cheap and it’s reliable.

    Here are some videos that Splain it all:

    Using a Bailer Bucket.

    The cheap way to do it.

    How to make the bucket.

    Whee to buy a bucket.

    Where to buy the cord reel.
    On Amazon look for “Alert Stamping 7000WR Pro-Reel Cord Carrier ” $29. No cord supplied.

    I’m putting this info out because I hope other will find this info interesting and possible life saving! My well pump just died and I need an emergency way to get water until I can find a better pump. Fortunately I have many hundreds of gallons of water stored in tanks to hold me over until the well is repaired.

    I may just go with the Bailer Bucket full time as it would be easy to automate.

      • OK so it’s old. How many people know about it? Did the others use a check vale in their buckets?? I try to bring usable information to this site, no fluff! Do you have a way to get water if your well pump died or your solar power went down with no grid power?

      • Windmill…goes back a century or more. The one I installed is a 1905 model, and it pumps 100% of the water we need for 3 homes.

  13. AHhhh! Democracy in Action!!!!

    UK Brexit finally came about after an attempt to derail the WILL of the people!

    After Brexit EU members living/working in the UK will have to “qualify” to work/live there. Members of the EU were free to move/live in the Union without any government control. No longer! (Who needs a WALL?)

    Perhaps, how UK feels about Brexit is best summarized by Comedian Dominic Frisby in this youtube parody.

    We live in INTERESTING times!

  14. Here is a little different spin on how things work out this could be the perfect cover for Trump ie. a black swan event, Corona virus! He can’t stop the Bankers but if he covers the pandemic effectively he comes out the hero gets reelected by a landslide with control of both houses in spite of the bankers, now mind you the markets are still in the toilet the economy is in the toilet with the market, sadly a lot of people are dead but at least the Dummycraps are not in power!

      • I am seeing blame put on the decline already because of the Corona Virus! Maybe some other people besides Trump need cover and have decided that discretion is the better part of this time around…………just thinking out loud

  15. Some ways I avoid illness.

    Take off shoes and wash hands immediately after returning home.

    Open doors in public by any means other than putting your hand on the handle. (pushing exit doors open with my fist, on the glass, for instance.)

    Pull open doors by grabbing the handle at the bottom where nobody else does, with my non dominant hand, and non useful pinky finger. Just reduces the chance you’ll rub your eye or something with a dirty finger.

    Sit at the front of the bus. I began bus commuting a couple years ago and quickly realized the back of the bus is where the air is sucked for circulation. You are literally breathing the germs of up to 20 or 30 people’s sneezes or coughs as the highly active circulation fans do their job.

    Work from home if you can. Software jobs are great for that.

    Never go to concerts or large gatherings in Flu season if at all possible. I mean, unless it’s KISS or something else just as awesome.

    • Phil: Your missing an opportunity to build up your immune system. If you are a resonably healthy person, ie. normal Joe, your immune system will take care of business. As you experience germs, your immune system becomes stronger & you have no need to worry or cancel vacation plans.

      • FRED CHART: It looks like the Velocity of Money decreased during this entire stock market rally since 2008. One would expect the opposite based on the Velocity of Money Theory. You would expect it to be trending upward after 2008.

        Looking backward, it looks like the 90’s broke from normal & was a very productive time with major inovations requiring much spending to get up to speed, giving us a much higher Velocity of Money than normal because of all the technology spending. That stopped with Y2K & it has been in a downtrend for 20 years. Who’s hiding all the money…NEWS BLAST…THE DEEP STATE.

  16. What does the dems, deep state, Soros have on Justice John Roberts to control him like they do? It must be a doozy whatever they have on him, and it shows when he sides with the demmies.

  17. You’ve heard of JIT inventory.

    Don’t forget much of the world is now JIT payroll.

    Airlines idling staff and cruise ships idling staff and soon daycare operations will be closing means an auto-pay cascade will happen.

  18. George, something is totally woo-woo in the air today.

    At my job we pay close attention to the user forums. As such, on any day I can get an email or two from some response to my older forum posts (answering questions mostly, talking about quality problems, bugs, etc.)

    This morning I had a month’s worth of forum responses. And all day it’s been crazy for me and the people on my team that do the same. We all noticed it.

    But here’s the kicker: the customers are cranky, and deluded. Self centered, bitchy responses, and focused around their egos. More so than usual. It’s a phenomenon I call:

    Internet Narcissism Disorder

    I’ve already told you how I work, I’m mostly sensitive to patterns in behavior or data. My gut feelings guide me too, but are always based on observation. A good QA in that regard. I know today is a weird one, really weird. Just thought you might like to know.

  19. it happens George .. its just evolution .. minnup .. and that yellow stuff .. the in crowd of stirrers is having a ball selling snake oil .. cures everything .. yeah right

  20. Just when you thought that the coronavirus debacle couldn’t get any worse, you read this:

    For once, I’ll throw in with Mark: I hope that research paper is a clever hoax.

    Nonetheless, I’m wondering how this will impact the potential success of vaccine development efforts? The insertions are reputed to have been pulled from a virus which has eluded effective vaccine development for decades.

    The statistic which is now most important is how many victims have really fully recovered?

    • “Just when you thought that the coronavirus debacle couldn’t get any worse, you read this:

      For once, I’ll throw in with Mark: I hope that research paper is a clever hoax.”

      I am with you guys I hope it is all fake news.. although as a historical point.. I had read a few years ago that they were working on just such a virus.. a new strain of influenza that had HIV symptoms and could be contacted via casual contact or airborne virus with a long gestation period…

      I think Oxford and cambridge had some of the studies or maybe Lancet or Harvard.. ( I say those because they are but a few of my favorite libraries) had an article and studies on a virus like that.. but heck that was years ago when I read the studies on it and its hard to remember the exact year or which library or center was studying it.. way to many years and way to many articles that I have read..
      Most of the stuff I am seeing now is studies on making vaccinations for it and medications to fight it.. the fact that everyone.. in the medical studies fields from Every major research center and the subsidaries working on it.. is sort of scary and lets you know just how dangerous they are viewing it and its transmission…. usually a contagious virus like this is just directed to just a couple of institutions or research centers that study a virus like that..

      • Doubt it seriously, LOOB.

        This looks to me like some hack writer extrapolated the fact the Chinese are using HIV drugs as part of the treatment. Sorry, seems only logical to me since the “HIV drugs” they’re using happen to be the best drugs available against an aggressive pneumonia.

        First the Aussies, then the CDC disassembled this virus. If it is a construct, and was built with “essence of AIDS” we’ll know soon enough — no point drawing conclusions from insufficient data. That’s how religions like “climate change” get started…

        IMO the Indian scientists jumped the gun, so as to be credited, should the virus show an HIV basis. Virii are not the most-complex animals on the planet, but you can’t isolate a DNA strain, catalog its genome, and disassemble its RNA strands that quickly — I have a friend who’s a regarded nuclear biomed researcher, and I know that SHE can’t…

    • What I look at to judge the severity of a contagion is the number of recoveries, versus the number of deaths. For instance, this coronavirus, as of last report:

      305 dead
      443 recovered
      = current mortality rate of 41%

      The fact there are 14,637 confirmed cases is irrelevant because,

      those other 13,889 cases haven’t been resolved yet.

      The infected could all die, which would yield a 99% kill rate.
      They could all live, which would render the virus historically insignificant.

      What’s going to happen is somewhere in-between.
      This is all unimportant, until the potential pandemic plays out.

      The important things WRT this, or ANY potentially pandemic bug are:

      1) Rate of infection, and
      2) likelihood of survival

      — period.

      For anyone who wishes to track 2019-nCoV the best no-BS site from which to do so is the Johns-Hopkins tracker at ArcGIS. It is not the absolute most up-to-date, but it is also not subject to speculation, exaggeration, or political butt-covering.

      J-H Tracker may be found here:

  21. Okay, ‘gettin PO’d at the stupidity. I don’t care if it’s real or fake, it is getting old.

    Early in February of 2017, Eric Ciaramella and Sean Misko, both Obama holdovers with the NSC at the time, hatched a plot to exit Donald Trump from the EOP via an impeachment action, when an opportunity presented itself to do so. Trump eventually filtered them out of the White House with “leaker traps.” Misko went to Adam Schiff’s staff and, once “trapped,” Ciaramella went back to the CIA. Alex Vindman, also an Obama holdover and a friend of both Ciaramella and Misko, was the last leaker of the three to get booted, and therefore became the “inside guy.” Vindman is the source of the “leak” which Ciaramella “whistle-blew.”

    The reason the transcript of the Trump / Zelensky phone call was placed on an extra-secure server was to put it on a computer to which Vindman could not gain access. Vindman commented publicly that he’d intended to alter the transcript, but I guess no one but me caught that tidbit when it (briefly) hit the newswire.

    Breitbart reported that Vindman described his brother, Lt. Col. Yevgeny Vindman as the “lead ethics official at the NSC.” Eugene (that’s “Yevgeny,” in English) may (or may not) have signed-off on Bolton’s book. However, since the Breitbart story, the manuscript in its entirety has been recalled by the NSC and the FBI because the pieces so-far excerpted contain classified information and could never be cleared in their current iteration. This makes my cynical side tingle, because I heard a little bird whisper that the manuscript’s timeline has inconsistencies so glaring as to render the book a non-seller. I really hope nobody “fixes” Bolton’s notes and recollections while the manuscript is being reviewed by the alphabets…

    Breitbart’s original pub:

    For MUCH MORE actual information on this chapter of the swamp-mess, I suggest reading (real investigative journalist) Paul Sperry’s report at Real Clear Investigations:

    Before you click on this link, I suggest donning a Tyvec suit and SCBA unit. The level of sticky, gooey, political incest is nasty to the point it’ll cut your wind…

      • I did read it. It’s a joke. All conjecture. Not a lick of facts. You people are so gullible.

        Funny how after yesterday’s vote, a lot of Republicans are condemning what Trump did, but have said that they won’t go as far as removing him. What Kompromat is on them?

        Trump is guilty of obstruction, and above all just being an idiot. The real fun begins now…Kelly, Bolton will hit the media circuit this week, more damning Lev Paris videos coming and a big outing of a certain associate of Trumps will happen this week. Just in time for the SOTU.

      • Hold on Mark. Not a lick of Facts?

        Your Trump-hate has reached dangerous proportions. Eric and his pal were Obama holdovers. True and plenty of evidence. They sought out Schiff staff. Again, plenty of evidence.
        Biden’s son Hunter was a conduit either for payoffs to others, or as a quid pro quo of Joe -= again, plenty of evidence.

        Should I ever be arrested on any charge (never have been and it was 52-years from my last speeding ticket two months ago) I sure as hell hope you are not on the jury.

        I admire that once you’ve made up your mind, you are committed to a decision. However, really GREAT business leaders acknowledge when facts have changed. And the horse-shit laughably touted as “evidence” didn’t include a single person on the phone call.

        I trust you will turn into a YUGE Bloomberg supporter?

      • Oh, one more point: Were he not a public figure, saying things like :”Trump is guilty of obstruction and being an idiot” is very misleading.

        Did you notice no witnesses?

        This is the kind of loose talk that can lead to legal action. One of the things 20-years of actual reporting teaches is to never take sides. Color a bit when obvious, but not outright partisan. MSNBC, CNN, and others violate this cornerstone concept of being a journo every day. Moreover The mistake made by the current crop of news children (Lemon, Maddow, Anderson, et all),. is they live in liberal echo chambers. I was up for a regional SDX award (radio, investigative reporting, with Kirk Williamson of KALE) the year Maddow was born, lol. Yeah, I’m the old-school real deal. Facts matter. The House did not prove obstruction. They sold conjecture like a door-to-door salesman, though. You bought.

        Watch how Carter Page is about to take apart the DNC in Federal Court and let’s see if Perkin Coie (the involved law firm) can skate past this one. Any bets on this?

      • @MARKZ

        YOU are just full of the ‘stuff’ you say they do not have to clean off the streets of Frisco…. Hopefully you can get professional help for your Trump Hatred…which seems to be creeping over into insults for ANYONE else that has a different opinion…….I would suggest the help be from outside the area you live and work in ,since it is far to bias to be able to find the ‘right’ help you need.
        I close with a gesture of sincere thoughtfulness for your problem…GO CHIEFS

      • Mark, please note:

        Under the government’s charter (that’d be the Constitution) it is not possible for the Executive Branch (which includes the “Chief Executive”) to “obstruct” Congress or either of its Chambers. If it were, every time a President lobbied for a bill or law “in committee” to be altered, and every time he exercised Presidential veto power, he’d be guilty of “obstruction of Congress.”


        It is the President’s JOB to obstruct Congress.

        The President can not be guilty of a crime, by doing his job, as delineated by the document which defines both his job parameters, and crimes.

      • BTW Mark, RCI did not tell me anything I didn’t already know, from much more-accurate and less-mainstream sources, to be true. I used Real Clear Investigations because RCI has the same reputation for unbiased reporting as its parent, and because Paul Sperry is a real journalist — a claim no-one at any of the news or broadcasting networks can honestly lay claim to, any more.

        Now that you have a point of reference for an actual example of “unbiased” REAL journalism, assuming you are blessed with any common sense or sense of fairness whatsoever, you should be able to determine for yourself whether a reporter or pundit slants Left or Right, without relying on a CNN linecard.

        You’re welcome…

      • Holy Easter Eggs! I finally figured it out – Mark-o Poop-o is playing Joker to George’s Danish Batman! Weirdest bro-mance on the books for me but I’ll still watch it.

        Just … don’t … want … to picture … George … in … a … a … pair of tights …

    • As the plot thickens.. I realized..dam this has all the deceit drama and intrigue of a movie.. my only hope is that they wait a few years before they make it.. right now my only wish is that they dont drag this dead horse around another ten months..
      My wife commented last night..hun I. Can’t find anything good on tv.. I said heck babe just turn it to the Senate trials…lol lol I thought she was going to come unglued lol..

  22. George and other haters of this country…and I am being very kind… Go ahead and believe what you want. History will be on my side. I didn’t reach this point in my career by making bad decisions and betting on the wrong horse. You have been following me haven’t you?

    I have two quotes for you….

    “It’s natural to think that living things must be the handiwork of a designer. But it was also natural to think that the sun went around the earth. Overcoming naive impressions to figure out how things really work is one of humanity’s highest callings.”

    The second quote…substitute state media frauds, Fox for television…

    “Watching television is like taking black spray paint to your third eye.”
    Bill Hicks

    One day…You will learn how to see through the fog and realize you all have been fooled. Maybe the Morning Marine later and City fog we deal with here in the Bay Area has Figuratively toughened our senses. No surprise since we are the most powerful metropolitan area in the world financially from a valuation standpoint.

    • Think about Ray’s comments, if you can’t handle mine, Mark. I’ve been saying “no crime” since day one.
      Show me the high crimes and misdemeanors…Schiff show couldn’t.

    • Think about Ray’s comments, if you can’t handle mine, Mark. I’ve been saying “no crime” since day one.
      Show me the high crimes and misdemeanors…Schiff show couldn’t.

      • I am saying crime, crime, crime, crime since day one. The guy was born into a crime family for goodness sakes. One of the most corrupt families since the Gambino’s We disagree. I will be proven right at the polls come fall.

      • No, No, No…
        1. What is the crime Trump committed? Name a statute, not a popularity poll.
        2. Crime family? That’s libelous! Everyone doing business in NYC knows someone who is “made” or they can’t get stuff built!
        3. Back up the Gambino comparison with a list of Trump convictions, please.
        America’s waiting

    • Mark, you are the most disgustingly arrogant commenter on this blog. You believe you’re the greatest, your city is the greatest, your state is the greatest, your car is the greatest, yada yada yada. And you VERY mistakenly believe you’re the smartest of George’s readers. Many here are obviously quite intelligent. Since I don’t know any of them personally, I can’t make assumptions about their IQ’s, but I DO know that I can easily match mine against yours at any time. I’m a mathematician who’s had more than my share of academic honors, and I aced an abbreviated IQ test at the age of 61. I’m sure some of the others can say similar things about themselves, so quit acting like you’re the king of the hill and just STFU.

      • That was a productive response. And, acing an abbreviated IQ test? Is that the GED version of IQ tests? What’s that mean? That’s like saying at my age of 62, I won an abbreviated marathon. If you are equating your age to mean you still have it….age IS the creator of masters in their field. I hope at 61 you can ace an “extended” IQ test. With age comes more wisdom right? By the way, I am 62.

      • Joe, I debated leaving this comment for the very reason you stated, but then I remembered all the attacks Mark has made on others here–they/we are all stupid, idiots, cultists, etc. merely because our presidential choice was not the same as his. He has done an EXCESSIVE amount of name-calling, even including George in his insults. And he has repeated the insults over and over. So I decided it was only fair to give him a dose of his own medicine.

        Mark, FYO abbreviated does not mean a GED version. It means a shorter test than the standard one, but with IDENTICAL type questions. And I will repeat that you are not the only brainiac on this blog, even though you’ve told us often enough that you are.

  23. I don’t think anyone locked down their borders in time to prevent the spread of this disease. The first cases were reported in mid-December. Thousands of people have traveled in and out of China between those first cases and when the story broke in the news in mid-January. With the possibility of being contagious for up to 2 weeks before onset of symptoms, and the 5 million who left Wuhan before the city was locked down, there isn’t much chance of containment anymore.

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