CV-19: Forget the Stupid Politics! 8-Ugly Facts

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Breaking:  

Federal Reserve just poured $120-billion into the repo market.  Light ’em up, markets!

Facts and Folly

The late Dr. Carl Sagan summed it up best in the book titled “The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.” 

Our problem today is we are living in an asylum populated by addicts hooked on a sick socio-economic paradigm who are anxious to turn everything into a partisan event.

Bugs don’t care about politics.  Corporations do.

Fact #1:  The Data Sucks

Here’s how it lays out today: 105 Cases in the USA and 6-dead.  And for the global view?

The big data picture is cases going up almost 11% in five days and the death count is going up  11.18% so the numbers are tracking.  Will we make big bets on there being 20,000 global dead by Memorial Day?  No, but we wouldn’t bet against that, either.

Fact #2: Data Management is Likely

Hyper-complexity – which is the “big paradigm of the World” comes with a few responsibilities.  One of them is Global Panic is a very, very bad thing.  So bad, in fact, that it could reduce human population dramatically if panic gets out of control.

Ergo, it falls to governments to a) act in a responsible way and b) protect as many people as they can.

Importantly, these are not partisan (party) political issues.  They are Global – as in we could all (or lots of us) die if we f*ck this up.  Government will do what they must in order to muddle-through.

An example the Data:  On the John’s Hopkins GIS site, the 5-dead in Seattle/King County, Washington are reported separately from the one death in Snohomish County, Washington.

A lot of people (clamoring for attention) will spin this six-ways-to-Sunday.  “Government’s spreading the data out so it won’t be so apparent that things are out of control...”  This will resonate with people because yes, our government has indeed lied about all kinds of things and this is what they reap for past lack of candor.

On the other hand, scientists need to have disease outbreak data down to the zip code level that can be traced back to population characteristics and so forth.  Snohomish County much is less dense than Seattle/King County so as cases evolve, the spread gradients can be modeled, and resources allocated.

As for conspiracy talk and bioweapons?  Little late to even waste processor clicks on history, don’t you think?

Fact #3:  Going Political is Stupid

Both political parties are led by politicians.  Fact is, politicians are what?  Self-Serving.  That is, they only seem to represent people in the hours and days before an election.  Like today’s Super-Tuesday.  The minute the votes in, they’re out of control, again.

Democrats kept the Mexico border open and they persist in sanctuary city lawbreaking.  They own that.  Trump didn’t shutdown all international air travel in January.  He owns that.  Everyone has dirty hands.

But to look to any of the clowns in office as specifically causative?  Would you blame an earthquake on one party, or the other?  So why would people do othat with the virus outbreak?

Back to B.F.Skinner and some “operant conditioning.”  Monetizing the news (NY Times, Bloomberg, the Networks, etc) has resulted in a phenomenon I call “Broken News.”  News has evolved into a financialization, not a service. 

And here’s a side-pointer for you:  If you listen to anything more than 15-minutes of news a day, you’re a partisan/news addict…which pushes you toweard the idiot column.  Cowboy-up and lead a life; don’t be pulled around by “someone else’s game.”

Fact #4:  A MCHVE is Likely in Progress

Behind the scenes – a further market melt-down lurks for technical reasons.  For those not schooled in economics, that would be a Massively Correlated Hyper-Volatility Event.

Look at what has happened in the charts:

Because of this massive decline, we have fallen outside of “normal” standard deviations that may be used in derivatives pricing models.  When this happens, derivatives begin to break.  When  that happens, big banks get in trouble.  Care to geuss who’s going to get that bill?

One German bank in particular is on our watch list because it has pretty much just crap left on its derivatives book.  While it’s not our intent to smear anyone’s reputation, perhaps a careful read of the  Financial Times story “UK regulator warns Deutsche over repeated compliance failings”  And then connecting the dots with Brian Sozzi’s  Yahoo Finance article “Coronavirus could spiral the stock market down another 30%: Deutsche Bank” will set your thinking right.

All of the Big Bank people are smart as whips, but when the second leg of this sucker comes, we figure it will about match the 48% overall decline of the Great Depression’s Crash.  More – and projections on timing in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.

Fact #5: Jobs Data Could Be Good

We will get the ADP job number tomorrow, Challenger job cuts Thursday and Federal data Friday.  The really short-term, and likely reason why we could see the market rally to our expected levels for the week would be we’re in something of a wave-crest between troughs.

In the first wave down, which at it’s worst was around 15% from all-time highs, there was initial fear and whispers of panic.  Now?  Pollyanna types abound.  Rally on.

But, when the next leg down comes along, we would expect the Deutsche fellow will be right and that we will be down  more than 30% – bcut that’s basis the “bounce high” which would be to maybe 7% down from the ATH.

In other words, think in terms of 33% down from 7% down – and you see where our 40+% decline worries come from.  Oh, and yeah, this is how we replay 1929.  Bring your own Locusts, too.

For now, there’s enough global inventory and goods moving, but out 2-3 weeks?  I wouldn’t place a lot of bets. Spot shortages of certain goods are already being reported.

Fact #6:  Shortages are Self-Perpetuating

As soon as there’s a whisper of something going into short supply, out comes the buyers  en masse and that  causes a shortage, even if there wasn’t one in the first place.  

The reason is we no longer have a distribution-based supply system.  In times of old, suppliers held inventory, not manufacturers.  And, as a result, there was a lot of “flex” in the supply chain.  Then came the financial engineers.  “Hey!  That inventory is money at rest!  Let’s skinny-up on inventory and put the money in hedge funds so we can all get  bigger bonuses!!!!  Whee!!!!”  Stock buy-backs!  Whee!

Result?  Stories like:

Same dynamic as new Apple iPhone releases and bank runs.  If you’d been reading Urban back in January, you’d be comfortably set by now.

Fact #7:  You More Likely to Die of Something Else

Motor vehicle accidents kill about 40-thousand people a year.  And, an article in  Lancet in December cited “Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that’s higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.”

You may get the flu and feel like crap, but it may not be corona virus.

And here’s one more to put in your pipe:  A doc I was talking to raised an absolutely fascinating question this week:  “Maybe there has been a global pool of corona viruses we didn’t know about because we never really went looking and counting before…”

For us, lots of vitamin C, rest, pneumonia shots and common sense, seems like the best approach.

Oh, and if you want come over to visit?  Forgetaboutit.

Fact #8:  Entertainment May Change

Go to a theater?  Sit behind that coughing couple?  Er….n o thanks!  As a result of such fears: Bond fans ask for No Time to Die delay due to coronavirus.

We’re literate and not stupid.  No handshakes or hugs…and minimal public exposure.  And  Hibi-clens and….if you get a cold, don’t freak out.

Sheesh.

Worthy of Mention

Spring is when Tornado Alley lights up.  And sure enough, At least 8 killed after powerful tornado slams Tennessee.  N ashville area.

With corona fears, we wonder about the future of pro sports, in general.  Still, football’s a biggie and with billions at stake, here’s what’s holding up the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement.

How soon will we all be chipped? What is Clearview AI and why is it raising so many privacy red flags?

And we have a chance today to again assess the double-digit brainpower of average Americans in the fiasco called Super Tuesday.  Typical stories include Biden gets big Super Tuesday boost from former rivals.  Spare us, please.

Will there be a home version for Christmas?  As Honeywell sees path to world’s most powerful quantum computer in 3 months.

If that’s out of your budget, send me one of these bad boys: Bentley unveils $2 million roofless car with trim made from 5,000 year-old wood.

Peoplenomics  tomorrow for subscribers…more here on Thursday.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

 

 

27 thoughts on “CV-19: Forget the Stupid Politics! 8-Ugly Facts”

    • I almost bought one for chuckles.. lol lol
      Took the wife’s car in for a service appointment and the car dealer had one .. four years old under twenty thousand miles on the Odometer . Beautiful leather interior all the bells and whistles. Hand rubbed wooden interior .
      Took it for a test drive to walmart.
      The car dealer had to put new disc brake pads on it.. the salesman told me if I offered the cost of the brake job it was mine..
      Aalmost three hundred thousand new.
      I could have had it for fifteen grand lol lol.. the problem was I couldn’t afford to drive it lol a fully loaded semi truck got better mileage lol

      They finally suckered some schmuck in georgia to buy it lol..

  2. I am not sure why the Hollywood movie studios and other movie production businesses have not gone to a streaming model vice the old brick and mortar theaters. So, here is a scenario. We have a family of 4 who could go to see the latest Bond movie for $60 ($15 a pop for the tickets). OR they stay home in the comfort of their home and stream it for say $10. I have not done the market research, but I am pretty sure in the long run, the movie makers would maximize revenue by streaming, and people would not have to go sit in the same seats people have farted on and sneezed on. Btw, I don’t go to theaters for obvious reasons, plus I don’t like being around scummy people who often populate public places today!

    • Hollywood is already ‘streaming’ the content to movie theaters via satellite digital HD links. Movie theaters now are all digital projection… no more ‘film’. If people don’t go to the theaters, they can pick up the DVD in the aftermarket a month or two later.

  3. COVID-19 ..and another gone, and another gone..but I’m ready,yes, I’m ready for you, I’m standing on own two feet, out the thin air the VIRUS rips, repeating to the sound of the beat.- Re-imagined lyrics/QUEEN/Another One Bites The Dust..

    George -China Town is empty -no one is going out.
    Global Supply chains breaking down soonly – like where is the coot gonna get his new pair of Gucci Loafers from? Never mind all the Chinese made junk/toxic products that wont polluting our shores anymore ..its all about PROTECTIONISM now kiddies – GLOBAL IS DEAD and or Dying. Invest accordingly..like the mother of all rallies – as Granny always used to say “lil coot – NO Balls, NO BLUECHIPS”..BuyBuyBuy till Friday..

  6. That $120 billion created one crazy market this morning as of 11:30 EST, and appears to be in a free fall for now, could change in the blink of an eye, but trend is down now.

  7. Ohhhh im still around… it occurred to me “what’s the rush?” It not like Devo said, “whip it whipit good.” I was speaking with a 6 foot 8 East Indian Guru (whose name means “Prince” in his language) this morning and he asked me that question. I said I am off to catch the Tigger by the toe eeney meeney miney moe! He said hmmmmmm maybe you if you stand still long enough.. with “roo”, Tigger will bounce its way to you. Then he quoted him. “Once and a while something amazing comes along and here I am.” Tigger.

    So, I thought about it as I watched the Political Antics begin this morning with the Canadian Snow Geese.. Patrick is up to Rally Bob for leader of the Senate. Mr and Mrs Mallard whom I break bread with daily, along with Jim the Lone Hawk watch from the Sideline with Roo the Rabbit. **Yes I know the real err uhhh ummm uhem… other Roo is not a rabbit but a joey in the story but hey Life’s not perfect. hahahah….. I told a few people of my recent discovery of the Canadian Snow Geese Politics. They laughed and called me crazy… which happens often. lol then as they sat there with me over a cup of coffee and marvel exclaiming they all be damned! Those Geese do have quite the political structure. I would have never guessed. Its true!

    anyway, I considered his words, I said, The driven dash to attain something desired sometimes keeps it behind you. Interesting concept…. he replied, karma’s only a b!tch when you’re a b!tch. Andy, you’re no b!tch. You have done well and lots of good for many… sit with me and have a smoke… let the rest of the world catch up.

    I laughed and said, I have heard of Hinesite being 20/20 but it has never occurred to me that is 57. He tilted his head… I Hines 57 Ketch up… he laughed and said you are impossible. I raised an eyebrow and said, perhaps.

    so, that is what I’m doing today….

    Fall Back, and Spring forward, in like a lion and out like a lamb… they say.

    seemed like sound advice… having just moved to the Desert of California from Snohomish county…. so, I will sit and wait for Tiger find me. Round and Round we go.

    maybe Beck said it best, “Don’t believe everything that you breathe
    You get a parking violation and a maggot on your sleeve”

    and later, “Im a driver, Im a winner, things gonna change I can feel it.”

    per Ure Latest US news and financial report,

    ~ Repetitive Cycles of History proves poor stewardship.~

    all applications for the Hunger Games Tryouts must be filled out in triplicate, and in with a current copy of your ID Midnight May 2cnds.

    “Forgiveness is giving up the hope of ever changing the past.”

    • “I told a few people of my recent discovery of the Canadian Snow Geese Politics”

      Under revised trade agreements recently signed Canada and the USA agreed to a divorce… unfortunately we got joint custody of the geese!

      • They are a wild flock. Yes sir! Yes sir indeed.

        hahahahahhahahahaha!

        another blood bath on wall street.. It appears all the kings men are trying to put humpty back together again.

  8. George,
    -When you use all your fiscal and monetary stimulus in good times, the cupboard is bare when you actually need it, like now.
    -When you de-fund science and medicine, because they deal in reality instead of the current party line, you don’t have it when you need it, like now.
    -When you attack law enforcement and intelligence because they won’t look the other way to corruption, it isn’t strong when you need it.

    -When did recognizing reality become a liberal position?
    -When did Conservatives stop being conservative?
    Best, Mike.

    • Mike,

      You’re obviously a democrat – and that means idiot.

      Anyone who buys into spiel from that rag-tag pack of horses asses running on the demon ticket in sucker Tuesday knows that much. Maybe you didn’t get the memo?

      Joe the Conduit with Cash Hunter? GMAFB. Your party is toast. Whole lot of ’em ought to go up on trial for treason for trying to overthrow the elected and sitting government and install a bunch of Cuba-suckups and its junta.
      Let’s face some facts (again)
      All spending bills begin in the House of Nancy and cards like pencil-neck. That’s who runs the cupboard bare.
      The r’s didn’t “de-fund science” but they cut left-wing grantsmanship climate scamming a bit. IT’S THE WEATHER and you can’t buy it. No Weather for YOU.
      Again, go bang on Nancy not the R’s

      Attack law enforcement? ROFLOL you f’ing troll, seriously? With the Obamanistas perverting of the national intel apparatus to further their East German Stasi-like agenda surveilling Trump?

      Remember, there are Trump people suing the DNC and a certain law firm for up in Chicago over their sore-loser scams. Big Money, Big Money!

      No worries about being a lib and seeing Teality – the two positions have become mutually exclusive

      Conservatives never stopped being conservatives.

      But, while we’re at it, thanks for keeping the f*cking border leaking with OTMs. We’ll send a bus load to your house, if you’re like. Wait…that’s for little people, not Demoncrats, right?

      You gotta love the Deathocrat party.
      Not a goddam word from you on how Trump’s actually trying to get out of Crackghanistan. In spite of the Deep State embedded at State..hmmm…end a war. No interest? Of course not.

      You see, you self-serving sack-of… In Your World you blame Trump for everything.

      In my world, people are only responsible for that which they do themselves. They see lines of authority and responsibility. Hard to do with pot headed comrades and Molotov’s.

      You wouldn’t know what to do with a straight, hard fact, if it ran you down at high noon.
      (But thanks for the chance to awaken a few more demoncrats.
      Enjoy Suckah Tuesday.

      Carrot-Top over Conduit Joe any day. Wait! He wouldn’t know that, either. But I do support Joe for Senate! (for a state in some foreign country…)

      • Oh, and what part of the headline “Forget the Stupid Politics” didn’t you read? Trump didn’t do the virus. God save us from your misplaced passion and hate. You still knee-jerked…notice that?> Check with your doctor. Could be early onset of something bad. Not saying stupidity is terminal, but I’ve seen it before.

      • …and Mike spins the chamber again on Banned From the Site Roulette. Methinks one day soon it will land on a live round.

      • CJ, I don’t think he necessarily should be banned, but I don’t think George should let him post the same crap every other day. Make him rub a few brain cells together and come up with a new thought every once in a while if he wants to see his name in print. Maybe even come back and defend his tripe when he gets called out on it.

      • I have said it time and time again. I dont’ care who the president is. I only care how to work that to my advantage. I think real Politics died when Kennedy got Shot. Its all just Big Time Wrastling since. Hell Even Nacho Libra has a better foreign policy then the last 4 presidents. lol

        Those geese tho.. lol

    • Your contributions to the conversation here just keep getting progressively inane. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, you desperately need a new set of talking points. Why don’t you lay off of the Commondreams and Shareblue, try reading something by an author not frothing at the mouth.

  10. Dear Mr. Ure,

    Yesterday I passed in a grocery store aisle a former federal parliamentary MP who lost his seat in the last election a few months back who nodded a greeting. He was empty-handed but moving with purpose which turned out to be selecting a large package of tp from a shelf further down the aisle before proceeding to the checkout line.

    I thought to myself, “wow, there’s a message in that”. Or not.

  12. great quote .. news is now a financial service not service .. yep algos and robots sexed the world

  13. “Coronavirus Outbreak Will Lead To More Drug Shortages In The U.S., Including Antibiotics.”

    On Thursday night, the FDA released a statement saying the U.S. was experiencing its first drug shortage directly related to the coronavirus outbreak. It did not name the drug, but said that there was a manufacturing issue with a pharmaceutical ingredient related to a site affected by coronavirus.
    _______________________

    This is absolutely true and accurate, although the article stated the drug in-question was “almost certainly an antibiotic or at least an antimicrobial agent,” which is not necessarily true OR accurate.

    Over 90% of ingredients for ALL prescription drugs come from China, and nearly 80% of all generic drugs are manufactured in China.

    Nobody working in China means your favorite aspirin, acetaminophen, ibuprofen, or other NSAID is going away, along with your BP, diabetic, or psoriasis scrip because even the DRUGS MADE IN THE U.S. depend on Chinese precursor ingredients and herbal derivatives.

    Merck can probably tool up and begin re-manufacturing Zocor (simvastatin) because it’s only been generic for a few years, and we can make our own red-yeast rice, but there’s no way Bayer or Lilly can tool up and re-manufacture aspirin unless they first create a lab from which to crank out salicylic acid — something they haven’t manufactured in-house since WW-II…

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