Crashmas Eve Day

Here’s a head scratcher for you:  As of 7:16 AM Central time, Yahoo was showing the Dow futures down more than 700 points, but the FinViz display was showing down in the range of 150-points.  So, it will be an interesting morning to watch…which set of futures will be right?  We should know shortly…maybe holiday related computers…after all, Europe’s on a holiday, too…

Meantime, the CNBC report “Treasury Secretary Mnuchin held calls with the CEOs of major banks to discuss the market turmoil” has everyone on edge. Why would they make calls?  Isn’t the market data enough?  Or, are the calls really to ask “Ya’ll see anyone in trouble yet?”

Frankly, we don’t.  For one, the price of gold is going up. Typically, when someone gets in trouble, gold will fall as assets (at large) are sold to cover positions.

We keep glancing toward Ukraine and wondering if that’s about to pop as reports like ““Definitely preparing for something”: OSINT group on Russia’s fake news on “NATO troops” in Donbas.” make the rounds…

And we have a fresh data set to consider with this morning’s release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI):

Up a bit in November:

Another indicator of confidence is Bitcoin which is back to $4,137 when we checked earlier.

No sitting at the fire with eggnog for us today.

Shutdown: As a Payoff?

The OTHER “hand-wringer du jour” on the news channels is all shutdown, shutdown, shutdown.

Well, time to spill the beans:  We’re thinking “Gosheroonies! It looks almost like a year-end pay-off to the Deep State bureaucrats…” to us.

Here’s why:

First:  the closure doesn’t turn off Social Security.  Neither party (tweedle-dumbs or tweedle-dumbers) is willing to mess with Gram and Gramp’s cash flow.  That’d be like taking a hammer to a bottle of nitro.

Second, we already know – based on how “Legislation has been Introduced to Guarantee Pay to Federal Employees in Case of a Shutdown” – that federal employees will likely be paid for the time off.  Got that?  Introduced by a RINO, looks like to us…

Our Bottom Line?  Taxpayers are being screwed into giving federal employees a paid week (and however longer) of paid vacation.

Oh, and that’s crooked as hell.  I mean besides violating  the separation of church and state – Shutdowns should only happen in non-vacation times when kids are in school….following?

The whole idea behind a “shutdown” is that it should be so big and so scary that NO ONE (in their right mind) would pull the plug.  Turns out when watered down and coupled with the fact that virtually no one in the District of Corruption is really in their “right minds”, the right-thinking rationalists who remain (both of us?) will quickly see things for what it is:  A scam.

On the other hand, we are not surprised.  We also don’t blame the bureaucrats – they’re just working the system to maximal effect.

But, as a Tax Payer, shouldn’t we get to write off (whoever many days of partial government service) on the theory that we’re not getting what we pay for?  Where’s our “bonus week off WITH PAY???

The terrible Reality is that it’s the job of government to Rule.  And that, quite logically, makes the bureaucracy the RULERS.  And that – in turn – is NOT how America is supposed to work.

The biggest long-term grow industry in America – since the Great Depression – has been government.  And the best advice I can give anyone willing to go through the polygraphs and interviews with the Office of Personnel Management investigators, is to grab a government job – any .gov job –  because it’s the surest road to riches and predictable lifetime income you’ll find, bar none.

(Who me?  Pissed?  Yah think?  Helll, I’m just on reheat…keep reading.)

Predictable Year-End Rally?

Our latest trading model (Golem II, Trading Boxes) was suggesting prior to the open that we might rally for three days (or even longer) going into the New Year.  But, shortly thereafter (around Jan 10?)  with more predictable nuttiness out of D.C. we should head down.  This is despite headlines like “‘Very Possible’ Shutdown Goes Into 2019, Says Incoming Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney.”

If you follow Elliott wave counts, we have completed what looks to us like a Wave 1 down, then a 2 up rally, then a Wave 3 (i) down, a Wave 3 (ii) small rally, and the past week or two we’ve been collapsing down Wave 3 (iii).

Logically, we ought to have a Wave (iv) rally, but it could be an uneven thing because when (ii) is simple (as I count it) then (iv) can be complex.  So, maybe we slide semi-sideways for a bit.  Remember thee new congressoids don’t begin their terms of doing nothing until mid January, isn’t it?


But then, offer our “magic boxes.” the Wave 3 (v) down should come-a-knocking and our subscribers will be watching a couple of critical trend lines.  If they hold, we can call this decline done.  If they fail (and our natural bearishness has us leaning that way) then down we go into the spring.  From there, a larger rally and then the real disaster in the fall of 2019 rolls into view.

But, we shall see.  Remember:  This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, just an informed discussion of the markets.

When you sit back, though, there are plenty of reasons that the Big Rollover is likely underway:

  • Seniors keep aging – so we don’t need huge places in the woods with 30 acres and 2,400 square feet under air.  Less is more as you age.
  • Worse, while real estate prices are still pretty good, over time – especially if earnings don’t begin to move up – not as many people will be able (or willing) to afford The Big House. Rising rates make bankers rich.
  • Then there’s the impact of LBGTQ:  Why procreation when recreation is less expensive?
  • And then we have the 11-year “California Real Estate Cycle” (called variously the Juglar Cycle and the average Solar Cycle, too…so it’s not like a “hidden variable.”  Point is, real estate began its descent in 2008, If it isn’t too early to handle the Big Math, add 11 years to 2008 and tell me what you come up with…

Wednesday morning, Case-Shiller will release the latest Housing Data.  It’s oh-so appropriate that the Housing Box data comes out on Boxing Day, don’tcha think?

LiveScience reported back in May of this year that the “US Birth Rate Hits All-Time Low: What’s Behind the Decline?”  Everyone can toss darts at the drivers but more sexual-social acceptance and lower family formation rates (based on costs) figure heavily into our thinking.  Also:  Takes two people working to “live the dream.”  No time for soccer…must work…must work…

My buddy Gaye Levy, (Strategic Living) and I joke all the time about their decision not to conttribute to global population instead opting for pet ownership.  Smart move! puts the cost of a canine as much as $1,000 year one but then perhaps $500 a year thereafter.  Earlier this year, USAToday offered that raising a child – but not including paying for college – was on the order of $233,600.  Which is why I regularly tell Gaye to “hug the dog.” 

As president of the National Bank of Dad, and sitting on the advisory board of the related entity Good Mommy Foundation, I can tell you even with children in their mid/late 30’s to mid 50’s, the cost of child-raising after 30-years still exceeds “several dogs-worth” for the year.

Not complaining:  Just telling it like it is: Gaye’s dog doesn’t talk.  But children don’t either, these days.  “Honor Thy Father and Mother” is mostly run as a series of telemarketing campaigns that amount to Cash-Calls or bad spin on “Dialing for Dollars.

Through the seasonal fog we see a close parallel between bad Evangelists and Millennials:   Looks to us they’re both trying To Monetize Love.

We don’t think that’s good personal policy.  Because that which can be Spoken ain’t Love.


In Indonesia, A Tsunami Has Killed Hundreds in Indonesia. Here’s What to Know About the Latest Deadly Natural Disaster to Hit the Country and More tsunamis feared as eruption continues.

And Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg Is Up and Working After Cancer Surgery

More tomorrow.  Yes, we work all the time around here… Have  a Merry…

23 thoughts on “Crashmas Eve Day”

  1. RE: Yahoo finance vs FinVis

    Both are showing about the same price (22,290 at the time I wrote this note). However, yahoo is displaying a price CHANGE of -706. This looks like a calculation error on the part of yahoo. I see this kind of thing on yahooo finance quite frequently. They sometimes use the wrong basis for these “change” numbers. In this case, they are using the opening price on Friday (22,981) as the basis of their calculations.

    I wish Yahoo would get their poop in a group because crap like this can go a long way towards spreading panic in an already scared population.

    David In Englewood

  2. Two comments:
    1. Congresscritters and their staffs need to receive no pay and no pay-later pay, and no use of their slushfunds.

    2. Falling fertility is likely due to them realizing their future and the future of any children is poor. Our open borders mass amnesty practices remains very high bringing in millions.

  3. First off.. MERRY CHRISTMAS …..

    “We’re thinking “Gosheroonies! It looks almost like a year-end pay-off to the Deep State bureaucrats…” to us’

    I think your might be onto something there.. just like the old MSM saying DJT will have us in deeper wars…
    Now that he is saying we are going to pull out of the middle east wars that we have achieved what we set out to do..
    They say we need to stay in and keep up our battle.. excuse me how many trillions has been wasted on this.. Rand Paul on Meet the Press yesterday had my sentiments exactly.. can’t they do anything at all for themselves why should the middle class have to pay for this. and with the trillions of dollars we save in war expenses we could build that wall.. ( I still say that won’t work but heck its a symbol.. go after the employers their personal assets and the companies execs that hire illegal aliens and their personal assets and I can guarantee you it will stop in a new york minute)
    fix the infrastructure and work on the usa for a change..

    since we didn’t have that much money and borrowed it.. how much will that actual figure be with daily interest and the costs associated with it.. this number can be way higher..

    I wonder if this is how the puppeteers control the ones we depend on…

    I got to get me one of these LOL.. I could be a MSM news announcer or a member of Congress LOL LOL LOL although I would say what they want me to say for a whole lot less than they spent on our congress this year LOL….

  4. Merry Christmas George. Love the Eliot Wave stuff. Good job.
    But would that you had said even 1/20th as much about the tax cuts watering down the dollar, and adding 10% to the national debt to subsidize stock buybacks/rich guys, as you do about the Shutdown in just this one column. Best, Mike.

  5. The Bankster Class runs the world…I think we all could agree with that. Are they also behind the recent sell-off? Are some of Trumps men behind it? I wonder what Mnuchin talked to the CEO’s of this country about. It’s no secret that Mnuchin thinks Trump is an idiot. Former Economic advisor Gary Cohn said “He was dumb as S#*t.” These quotes are not in one, not two, but Three best selling books…one of which has recordings of the conversations.

    My point is…are they scheming to create a bear market to make Trump look bad? Funny how a day after his conference call with CEO’s the markets see another near $500 dip…on what historically is a slow market volume day.

    On the heels of Trump saying that he wanted to know if he could fire the Fed Chair to boost his poll numbers…(at this point in the Presidency, they are recording everything Trump says these Days) and…a possible indictment of his entire family and some really revealing dealings with a foreign shell company, are the powers of the world trying to humiliate and rid us of the most divisive and out of control leader the world has ever seen?

    If so…then folks wait a few days and buy, buy, buy. Once it is revealed that Trump is on his way out, and Mnuchin and company wins, there will be some extremely good buys. My favorites? Amazon is a force…while the eCommerce divisionhas shown increased sales this year, it’s their AWS division that is on fire. So why is their stock down nearly $700 since their high earlier this year?

    Tesla, just two weeks ago hit an all time high of $379.40…today it’s down to $300. They are turning profits and the Modelm3 is the best car in America right now…hands down. It’s a great buy.

    Google is healthy and changing the world…yet it’s down $240 since the beginning of this quarter. The overall Dow is down nearly $2,100 since December 17th…the biggest one week drop since 10/10/2008 when it shed $1,874.

    Sell your one Gold Coin George…and invest it in the rebound when Trump exits, and his replacement makes up with China, doubles down on being tough on Russia, re-establishes it’s police work in Syria and passes a border security budget that DOES NOT include a wall. In other words, life get’s back to normal.

  6. On population numbers…The article misses the point in my opinion…Don’t blame it on a pending recession…

    Blame it on Millennials, who aren’t getting married at an early age like my or my parents generation. It used to be a “generation” was every 18-20 years in mid 20th century. My generation upped that to 22-25 years after more women went to college and had careers. Now it’s 28-30 years. Equally as important..since it takes two…Men are not becoming fathers until well into their 30’s. This throws the birth/death models off a bit.

    Now, Americans are living longer, but not an average of 10-12 years longer it takes for parents to bear children today than it was in my parents generation, (the average life expectancy in 1960 was 69.5 for both sexes…Today it’s 78.5)

    The 2% less births is attributed to today’s couples waiting longer to have children so that they forward their careers…save money so that they can live in a home that not only provides for their kids, but have extra money to give them options to make their family experiences better…And when the chance arises, give their kids the same or better lifestyle that they remember growing up with.

    • Mark,

      Millennials are smart! Many of them have sworn off kids since they can get sterilized, have abortions and have access to birth control(at least the girls do). Why live with whining brats and messed up households and mortgaging your future for kids? Yes, many women like to have kids and after delivering one, they actually go back for more! Men see kids as some kind of status symbol, and after a while of being with them they actually get attached to some of them. Men marry for sex and status(in that order) and women marry for kids and status. Since the feminist movement and the idiotic concept of “marital rape”, along with the biased family courts and lawyers, there’s no incentive for a man to ever get married unless he trusts that woman with his life. The recent laws and courts have made sure that very few can trust anyone. If he can get sex regularly, there’s no point to having a fancy house and lifestyle – it’s just a lot of work that puts him at risk for lawsuits and family court! Since guaranteed sex was the only real reason for men to marry in our lifetimes, we currently have no reason at all. Yes, there’s the rare instance of some bum marrying a rich girl, but that’s a statistical outlier. Guaranteed sex with a woman precluded from straying is the “valuable consideration” in the marriage contract. That no longer exists. Kids are often wanted by one or both partners, but many are the byproduct of inadequate contraception.

      Millennials, and many of us boomers realize that once we die the world has ended for us. If you love a woman or her kids, you might make provision for them financially, but otherwise, the world no longer exists. You’re dead. There may well be an afterlife, but few if any of us have a clear idea of what that is, and we sure as hell can’t take stuff with us, so we give it away. Life experiences, including sexual ones, are the only value that we can take from this world.

      • NM Mike a very good post this AM. Seems that most of the points you brought up could be solved with Virtual Reality. When it gets here we will live a much different way. I have a feeling that the Socialist lifestyle will predominate so everyone can share the benefits of VR. It is very necessary to think out of the box on VR. No more wars, no drug problems, no unwanted children, eating only perfect balanced food, sex at anytime for males and females which is becoming a reality now. You can really let the mind wander about VR and its benefits. Read a headline yesterday that said in 20-25 years we will never die. I probably wont make it in this incarnation but am looking forward to when I come back next time. We live in exciting times and am really looking forward to them.

      • Everyone’s entitled to their opinion, but I got to speak up somewhat for the ladies here. It is this current and coming existence of free and available sex that stymies a lot of women. I personally started off early in life looking everywhere trying to find the right guy to share a life with, and have a connection about the past present and future – of shared existence. Early on, I wasn’t necessarily interested in kids. They’re already plenty here that need adoption, and I had thought about that possibly. The instant access to porn, the ongoing and future virtual access to easy sex, loss of family values, anything goes (extreme behaviors, competetive, and/or drugged out) mindset – stuff like this makes me kind of long for pioneer days were there were fewer people, especially women around. I know I’ve stepped in it now, so I wish everyone here who contributes to this thinking discussion everyday a Merry Christmas despite all !

  7. George, what if the wave analysis is not valid in markets that no longer do actual price discovery? Since the Fed puts and QE for the past 18 years have led to derrangements that have no relation to actual demand or the underlying economy. If zero interest loans allow companies to buy back stocks with no price relation to corporate performance, how can we assume the market is reflecting anything relevant to reality.
    Maybe your Elliot waves still obtain, but it could be possible that this market could keep collapsing until it reaches true value, and that could be pretty low. 65 down on the S&P on Christmas Eve suggests that anything approaching traditional supports have exited the stage. The next month could be ever so interesting.

  8. Merry Christmas, George and Elaine. Thanks for all you do all year to try and keep us informed (and sane, hopefully!).

  9. Great column, as is the usual, George. May you and Elaine have a peaceful and happy holiday. I am a born and raised Roman Catholic. That particular term has a far deeper meaning than many realize. It signifies Emperor Constantine’s marrying of a religion practiced by his mother, Helena, and the power of the Roman state. The ‘official’ date of Christ’s birth was changed to coincide with the physical rebirth of the sun in the winter sky, a Roman holiday. Yes, the winter solstice is Dec 21st, but the actual length of daylight does not start getting longer – when the ‘sun is reborn’ – until 25 Dec. Check the Farmer’s Almanac. The Gospels also tell us shepherds watched over their flocks at night when Yeshua Ben Yosef was born – this was only done when lambing happened, and that is in the Spring. Shepherds stayed watch then to protect the lambs against nocturnal predators. Constantine gave the then Pope, Miltiades, the Vatican Hill, a cemetery where Peter was buried, and then helped fill and level the area where St. Peter’s Basilica was constructed over. APeter’s tomb. At this point the religion of Christianity became formally married to the Roman state. From Constantine onward the church officiated the coronations of all Holy Roman Empire monarchies. It seems that such associations with the physical power of the state helped not only to win over souls, but helped control the rabble through the fear of eternal damnation. Yeshua was a socialist pacifist, a “turn the other cheek” kind of leader. He practiced what he preached until he was physically punished in the extreme by Herod, with Pilot’s help. He rejected the temptations of power and rebelled against corrupted church and state leaders. He forgave sinners. He cared for the poor and fed the hungry. He led by example. He died for what he believed in, which was us. That is the true message of Tomorrow. Merry Christmas!

  10. Something about to pop? You mean like pulling troops out of Syria while rockets are being launched at US navy destroyers loaded with Tomahawks in the Straight of Hormuz.


    73and Merry Christmas.

  11. So, i had a meeting face to face with those who dragon born. Had them back to the house after about a 6 hour game of cat and mouse.

    Funny , a majority of there power comes from the mystery of them. I found them to be no different than me. Except not born with a conscious ie capacity to feel guilt or remorse. Afer few drinks and a good 6 hour conversation. We have a understanding. They were confused aboutl a great many things, i provided swift and piecing clarity by fhe end of the conversation there was no doubt in there mind, i was not the one to play such game with. Now that we aee on the same page. All is well.

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