This is really one for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers, as we have something of a “chart problem” to sift through going into the week’s end.
Big Picture First:
At the Macro Level, the old all-time high in our Aggregate Index (of multiple stock indices) hit a new all-time high at the Tuesday close: 41,995.20.
The previous all-time high was set on November 8, basically two months ago, at 41,953.86.
As you can see, we are higher than November by a whopping 41.34 points. Which expresses as a gain of about one-hundredth of one percent. Or, if you understand engineering notation, try on 9.853682116496551e-4.
Next Come Problems and Questions
- Do I trust the Aggregate Index? Answer here is simple: Yes! Our Aggregate Index nailed the Bitcoin high of November 8, too. BUT problematically, BTC this morning was around $46,684.
- So, the first problem is: BTC is at $46,684 while at the stock market high in November it notched $67,562. Restates as: “Why are Stocks up when BTC is still off 30% from highs?”
- One resolution is BTC might rally like hell.
- Another resolution is the technical formation in options trading warning of a very risky period in the coming 24-hours could arrive. As Rob(in) Handler over at the Options Signal Service (oss.cc) publicly warned this week: “Something is up around Jan 5th. I posted this earlier today. Just found out most movie theaters are not showing movies after the 5th. Check it out in your area.” Could we be seeing a “buy the rumor, sell the news” kind of thing here? Something pending?
- Or, alternatively, is the Buy’ed Em Fed so desperate to derail the collapse count signaled from Nov.8 that they went all-in hoping for some kind of la-la-land rally ahead of a coming WIE (war in Europe)?
- Does Fed Inflation have to be considered in Elliott Wave Work? The last time I looked, Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International figured no, the numbers are what they are. I still get queasy with that assumption. Bob’s smarter than me (but so is 75% or America, ahem...) but I still wonder with the Fed making up a “fifth of a trillion” since November 1, or whatever, how can that NOT impact markets?
On the little blip up Monday, I look the small loss on my short position. But I’m not opposed to re-entering it. Why? Ah…therein lies an interesting notion.
Two Disturbing Nits
The first is the “weekly closing” Aggregate. Sure, the daily close was a nominal new high. It might reset the Crash Close a further 55-56 days out. Which would argue no Crash until Friday Feb. 25th or Monday Feb. 28th. The actual happens to fall on the weekend.
This scenario would provide for pseudo-progress before war in eastern Europe in those Jan 10-talks coming up. We’re thinking those will fail (the West will overplay the Bully role). This would give Putin a few weeks to attempt last-minute global PR.
More important, though, while the West has been bracing for a “sudden onslaught attack, he might run what in chess would be a very “soft opening.” Soldiers in small squads just walking west without heroic sounding mechanized units at the fore.
Or he could just move irresistible military might to the border and dare Ukraine to fire first. Which, of course, testosterone would demand.
The Weekly Close high in November was 41,897.07 – the Friday before a Monday high. So, a drop of just a little more than 98 points between now and Friday to less than the weekly high previous, would negate Monday as a one-day peekaboo new ATH.
We’ll see whether the “mood change” that Rob the Options guru senses comes to pass, or not.
A Gambling Note
Gambling in stocks (and it IS gambling anymore) can (and likely will) result in periodic losses. But in craps (at the Casino) we can find examples where betting with the House can pay off.
If you have a strategy that can (in stocks, not craps, lol) pay off 10:1, you can easily afford to get that bet wrong 4-times out of 5. Because even though it implies losing 80% of the time, a 10-times return still makes you whole and ahead.
Thing is, though, NOT ALWAYS. That’s because the 4 losses out of 5 may involve thousands of bets to stabilize. Whereas unless you can suffer long streaks of losses (dozens, minimally) the distribution of losses can kill you.
Remember the example of coin tosses. Clusters.
Before you take leveraged positions (or visit a casino) do refresh on Binomial Distributions at the Online Stat Book. Won’t guarantee your success at casinos or markets, but it can help along the way.
Then stare at the preopen Wave Count evolving in the pre-open:
While the previous wave count is fading (to gray) we still need a weekly close higher in order to have confidence betting “with the Fed/house” that higher is ahead. Thing is, though, that’s also betting against two other compulsive gamblers: Putin and Xi.
Maybe not a good time to visit the casino!!! We have, however, flagged today as a possible turn-down Tuesday ahead of what promises to be revealing employment numbers starting tomorrow with the ADP report. ‘Nother Truth Leak, anyone?
New York Dems vs. Rule of Law: Don’t know if you saw the story “Trump, Ivanka, Don Jr. subpoenaed in New York AG’s probe | AP News” but there’s something terribly wrong with the rule of law in NY. Or maybe I’m an idiot. Thing is, in covering federal grand juries for more than a decade of “street reporting” it was a given that the Federal prosecutors would NEVER confirm or deny a witness name. If a sharp-eyed reporter saw a witness going into a courthouse, that was one thing. But to “confirm” a witness identity? Maybe this isn’t a grand jury…or, like I said, maybe I’m an idiot. Or – what I really think? Lefties in the rotten apple don’t give a damn about the Rule of Law.
Saved By SEALS! Another “abuse of law” going on was held in check. The Team’s hoo-rah came when the judge put Biden’s DoD in line saying the ‘ron a “...provides the government with no license to abrogate” the freedoms that any American has…” More in Judge grants relief to Navy SEALs who refused coronavirus vaccine, sued Biden administration, but the Overreacher in Chief will not give up abuse of power without a further scrap, we’re sure.
Vaccine Protests: Picking up steam in Europe. After the ‘Mercian choke collar media underplayed the Dutch protests recently, we’re now seeing AP coverage of Violence flares at pandemic protests in Germany.
Did ‘Rona get Betty White? Depends on who you believe: Betty White’s cause of death revealed. White’s agent says “natural causes” but since CV attacks organs all over the body, who knows?
Good read for deeper thinking in what was once called the British Medical Journal, now simply the BMJ: The end of the pandemic will not be televised | The BMJ. Thing is, government can’t dial much of anything back because to do so would collapse employment in the highly paid CV healthcare segment…which would ripple into the larger economic fairytale.
Liberal Hysteria Hyping spotted: CBS News poll: A year after Jan. 6, violence still seen threatening U.S. democracy, and some say force can be justified – CBS News. Yep, we need a police state, right? Didn’t mention BLM or Antifa, notice?
$400-billion Off? I told you a few months back that my expectation was that by the end of 2021 Official US Public Debt would hit $30-trillion. I was wrong. We only go to $29,617,214,856,051.75 as of 12/31. I was off, but it’s like betting on $30 and having the actual come in at $29.62. So much for being an optimist.
It’s not “climate” – it’s Winter, you idiots: School, work, travel can wait as snow blankets U.S. capital. Which people in Colorado understand in spades as Colorado weather: High winds and snow incoming for Front Range and northern mountains. And our family and friends in the Pacific Northwest are “off spring” with snow last week in Seattle and rain with snow and 34 tomorrow night…
Climate Hypers: After the media frenzy about warm temps over Christmas up in Alaska, seems no one will mention this (so we will): It’s -7 in Anchorage at click-time this morning. We’ll say it for the umpteenth time: “That ain’t climate – that’s winter weather.” But hey! Let’s block pipelines for our railroad owner buddies and blow-up energy independence anyway, right? “Ure entirely too cynical!” Bullshit. High today of -1. Warming up to a high of 0F tomorrow…AYFKM?
ATR: Accident Cloud Woo?
Subtropical East Texas was 30F officially this morning, but in the shop here it was 28F as we ponder our latest crackpot theory.
Let me lay out the story piece-wise so this will all make sense.
I was using the Kubota last Saturday, having cut down some brush around the storage shed. In the process of pushing up the brush, I noticed the power steering began to feel wonky.
From experience, the only time that happens is when the rig is low on hydraulic fluid, which sure enough it was. Put in a gallon, but it leaked right out. Seems Mr. Zealous had punctured the under tractor hydraulic filter with a sharp stick and too much horsepower applied.
(Pause: No big deal, order another 06 filter, three gallons of hydrostatic tranny juice and it will be back to work in a day – just waiting on the filter.)
Now comes the weird part: Turns out there’s this lawyer feller who has a weekend place a ways down the county road from us. 4-miles, or so. HE was out working (about the same time) and he managed to pull an under-tractor hydraulic return line off a 90-degree elbow.
Not the same tractor (mine’s a Kubota (orange), his is a Mahindra (red) but very close to the same time. And trust me, likely the ONLY tractors out working in this timeframe because it’s hunting season. Only compulsive workaholics aren’t up in a deer stand with a bottle of Jack and a 25-06; a different (flatter trajectory) round than a 30-06.
You tell me the odds for related tractor issues 4-5 miles apart. Near enough zero, near as I could figure it.
Which has spawned an idea (based on some of the FAA’s work on “accident chains” and how to break them.
What ifwe have it all wrong? What if instead of “accident chains” there are Accident Clouds, instead. Picture “clouds of misfortune” that roll across areas of space-time f*cking things up in small areas, as they go!
This fits with a lot of border land science and personal observations. Might even be an astronomically driven thing, too. Any first responder or ER staff knows craziness clouds roll over the world around the full moon.
Looking at the calendar, it was just before “dark of the moon” so maybe a lunar ritual of some kind could have prevented it?
Seriously (or nearly so), think about it. We know “moods” operate somewhat like “communicable mood clouds” in office settings (and in relationships) so why not “under-tractor hydraulics” a few days before new moons?
Write when you get rich or nominate me for a Nobel Prize….