We won’t trivialize the importance of what’s going on with the virus: Looks like our first “bet” of the day will be what time we break the 1.5-million cases and when we pass through 90-thousand global deaths. Any second now…
Our forecasts have been better than nothing to plan around. And we’re pleased to see a reasonable article over on Wired today “Death Cuts the Degree of Separation Between You and Covid-19: If knowing someone who has died would make the pandemic concrete for someone in the US—real and actionable—how many have to die? Here’s the grim math.”
As usual, our advice is a) live apart and b) shun people.
On the other hand, there is much more to worry about than, oh, just an imploding economy. There’s little this matter of planning for the “other shoe” to drop. And, in case you didn’t “get the memo” the next problem – already in sight – its food stocks drying up.
Starvation and famine.
Not here, at least not yet, but it’s out there looking for a place to roost: “Coronavirus UK: Fears over food shortages rise as pandemic disrupts imported goods.” From a supply-chain standpoint, the UK is kinda like Hawaii, but without the good genetic strains…ahem…(Wowie!)
Let’s dig udderly deeper, now, with reports of milk dumping. Both sides of the border – U.S. and Canada. Where my friend Chris Tyreman is seriously ticked-off about it:
“The real [redacted] off of the milk dumping, is the fact that the stores in Saskatoon are all limiting purchase of milk and milk products, canned foods, sugar, flour and the like. Its like world war 2 rationing without the food stamps in the mail.
Would you like to see what shopping at Costco is like today?”
No, Chris doesn’t do lines, either.
Fat? Blame Your Mother?
ISYN: Some new research I happened to scan today on the Healio (Endocrine Today) website says “Fetal exposure to famine may lead to increased adiposity in adulthood.”
So looks to us like maybe one reason I stay pretty-much nailed to 220 pounds is because that’s my genetic predisposition… OK, maybe helped by 3,000 calories and two stiff drinks, but….we live in a blame-filled world….(My late mom would never have made me fat on purpose, but speaking of which, has anyone studied the relationship between Body Mass and IQ scores? Pure that on your research list with uric acid levels and IQ, as well…. stable blood sugar and stable thinking might be in there somewhere…
Climate Lies 3.0?
As though the government “fox-uniforming” the pandemic, to whatever degree your studies indicate, there is what looks to me like another Big Lie coming down the pick on Global Cooling. Buddy Jeff sent me a note. Not sure what site this was snagged from, but it’s the same warning that I’ve been yelling for what? Almost a year now?
“Many experts in December (2019) speculated we had reached “Solar Minimum” (error factor of +/- 6-months). Well, it’s 5-months later and we’ve only seen a couple of next cycle [reversed polarized areas] sunspots/small groups – most of which died-out very quickly and did not sustain a full transit across the observable disc of the sun. We’ve seen no real evidence – yet – that we’re on the other side or up-side of Minimum….”
“Old news” I told Jeff. But then I got to thinking about it. Hmmm. What IS the latest “offishul” hype about the solar cycle progression? Lo and behold! They have changed up their chart and the jury about here is now deliberating whether this is an attempt to “sack the people and farmers” with a contrived food shortage OR whether incompetence in government is bigler and hugelier than we feared. Chart first, then:
You are welcome to check the values here and plot them out yourself. But, when NOAA realizes its mistake, we are nearly 100% confident that climate-change believer/embed will jiggle the forecast – which will likely continue to be wrong, until it’s not. See the Wiki on the Maunder Minimum for ideas how long that could take. (Too lazy to look? OK, 70-years, plus or minus a famine is the answer…)
“So What’s This “Gambler’s Thursday Crap?”
Oh – yeah – you would get to that.
“Federal Reserve unveils details of $2.3 trillion in programs to help support the economy…” Will it work? Good for gold and long term investments
like power tools….I mean homes and spousal units…
Let’s line up the data and ask yourself “Who is going to hold long stock positions over the 3-day weekend – given the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday (this one is better than most, but I personally have never seen a Bad Friday).
- Producer Prices- Final Demand is out.
- Tomorrow with markets closed, the Consumer Price report comes out.
- Then there’s holding a position with CV-19 variables all over the place.
- The Fed H.6 Money stocks report probably will get read by a few market geeks over the weekend…and this part about the Fed’s view on March 15th was interesting:
- “Market participants expected that actions taken to slow the spread of the virus could have significant effects on the credit worthiness of certain borrowers, particularly those at the lower end of the credit spectrum. Market participants also increasingly pointed to concerns in other segments of the debt market. In securitized markets, including those for asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), primary market issuance slowed, and secondary market trading had become less orderly, with money managers selling short dated liquid products to meet investor redemptions.”
See how much could begin to blow up over 3-days?
And there’s that “pile of coincidentals” that we notice when there’s a bum’s rush to trying to keep the market up. I know, coincidence only, but FinViz was showing the S&P futures up +73 at 7:12 AM while at the same moment, Yahoo Finance was showing a more likely realistic -20. But, only a coincidence, right? But I notice discontinuities in the flow of data almost like a gag reflex. Only a coincidence, though, right? RIGHT???
Here’s a statistical wet spot for yah:
“The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.6 percent in February and increased 0.5 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
In March, the decrease in the final demand index can be traced to a 1.0-percent drop in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services declined 0.2 percent in March, the largest decrease since falling 0.2 percent in October 2015. For the 12 months ended in March, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 1.0 percent.”
I would white board this (needing a huff), but all you need to know here is “in bounds.”
Und zo? We see the structural deficiency of a “serve us” economy: When ain’t as many “us’n out’n” the “bottom line” will need some of that missing TP sooner than later.
On such an inspirational note, while we will have a column tomorrow morning, Peoplenomics will be mainly the charts Saturday as I give <Mr. Ure’s Bryane> some cool-down time.
Although there’s a ton to get done in the shop and the garden. Including watching more videos on “shop-made tools” like this one from Jeremy Fields…which has at least 3-good “borrowable ideas” it…
Steak, eggs, and a Rolling Rock for breakfast, anyone?
Why the futures turned up after the jobless filings and PPI is a freaking mystery of highest order. Oh, wait, is the government buying stocks, yet?
Write when you rich…