Since I’ve been posting about the return of Depression to America for more than 20-years – suggesting people do quaint things like pay off debt, get rural, invest in food, make some of your own power, live where there’s water…you know, stupid ideas like that – I’d like to offer some perspectives to anchor your future with.
1 – Collapse is No Joke – It Happens
Acclaimed anthropologist and historian, Joseph Tainter, wrote a defining book people haven’t read widely-enough: “The Collapse of Complex Societies.” Tainter argues, with plenty of historical examples, like the Chacoans, Anasazi, and more, that societies collapse when the “…marginal rate of return on additional investment (of work) falls below zero….” That’s about now.
Our second read under the heading “Collapse Paradigms” is Jared Diamond’s more contemporary “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.” Politics isn’t the answer, it’s the problem.
Once you “dive into the pool” on this stuff, you’ll find plenty of additional grist. We sure wish, though, that Dr. Donna Armstrong’s 2014 book “Seducing Ourselves: Understanding Public Denial in a Declining Complex Society,” was available in honest electronic format. (That is, as differentiated from digitally stolen torrents and such…)
2 – Depressions Are Cyclical
Societies go through successive waves. A look at America’s history illustrates many of these.
- Hardscrabble Life. Barely living through the foothold period following the Mayflower’s arrival.
- Expansion and Assertion: The Colonies crystalize and expand, leading the the War of 1812. Phase two would be the genocide of First People.
- Economic and Banking Collapse: Study of the Second Bank of the United States, falling in 1836. The lead-in to this was when (President) “Jackson proceeded to destroy the bank as a financial and political force by removing its federal deposits, and in 1833, federal revenue was diverted into selected private banks by executive order, ending the regulatory role of the Second Bank of the United States.“
- Recession, Panics, and Depressions: Shortly thereafter, the Panic of 1837 arrived. “On May 10, 1837, banks in New York City suspended specie payments, meaning that they would no longer redeem commercial paper in specie at full face value..” The Bankster class exploits confusion.
These cycles repeat.
3 – Depressions Revise Sexual Trends
A study of the “Flappers” of the 1920’s is useful to the template-fitting searcher. I’ll show you what I mean:
“Flappers are icons of the Roaring Twenties, the social, political turbulence and increased transatlantic cultural exchange that followed the end of World War I, as well as the export of American jazz culture to Europe. However, there was a reaction to this counter culture, mostly by older, more conservative people who belonged in different generations. They claimed that the flappers’ dresses were ‘near nakedness’, ‘flippant’, ‘reckless’, and unintelligent. “
Overt sexuality was a key market indicator that a Great Depression was approaching. Especially the “petting parties…”
“”Petting parties”, where the activity was the main attraction, became popular. In youthful imagination, it gave the lie to the old clichés of “the only man” and “the only girl”. This was typical on college campuses, where young people “spent a great deal of unsupervised time in mixed company”.
In present times, may be passing the zenith of the LBGTQ+ era. The gay, lez bar scene? Don’t look now but ALL gathering places, including those expanding on the back of social-marketing of genderism, are closing due to COVID.
4 – Hunger Will Come Next
The book “Hunger in America” is a hair-raising account of what happens with a Nation begins to run out of food and the equitable means to distribute it. Although it hasn’t been publicized nor promoted by the Left and promoters of online Digital Mob Rule, marketing mass-dissidence (impeachment, etc.) hunger has been evolving between our toes, barely out of sight:
In 2019, over 12.5 million children, and 40% of US undergraduate students experienced food insecurity.
The United States produces far more food than it needs for domestic consumption—hunger within the U.S. is caused by some Americans having insufficient money to buy food for themselves or their families. Additional causes of hunger and food insecurity include neighborhood deprivation and agricultural policy.”
“America’s Hungry Years” spanned the Great Depression. So it’s with great confidence we expect that universal hunger will be along presently. If you’re not preparing for it now, you’re an idiot.
Societies are deeply impacted by famine. But it’s also when people of great character are revealed.
I remember years ago, an afternoon spent with the late Western writer Louis L’Amour. We talked about The Depression in depth.
He recalled a time he was going to sea as an Able Body Seaman. Trying to “ship out” from San Pedro, California, cargo steamers were hard to come by, as global trade was in collapse, by then.
The men, mostly sailors stuck ashore, would go through the trash cans and store waste bins around San Pedro looking for anything edible. What was discovered was brought back to a ramschackle lean-to on the beach, cobbled of flotsom and jetsom. Thrown into a large pot, over a driftwood fire, it became a “Mulligan stew.”
Mulligans, a sort of “dinner made from scraps” was served across America in that time, on beaches among sailors; in the hobo jungles that sprang up in great numbers.
The sequence of societies includes the reversal of fortunes, the re-tightening of family bonds, and a great “swing back to normalcy.” It this what begins?
5 – Pivoting on Delusion, I
America – home of the invention of mass media and the post-book era – has always done very well at “self-marketing.” While there are stories about hunger here, the American political class has made an artform of demonizing other types of government in comparison to our own. Exceptionalism runs deep.
While America was going hungry in the Depression, people were being outright killed en masse in Stalin’s Soviet Russia, for example:
“The Soviet famine of 1932–33 was a major famine that killed millions of people in the major grain-producing areas of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine, Northern Caucasus, Volga Region and Kazakhstan, the South Urals, and West Siberia. The Holodomor in Ukraine and Kazakh famine of 1932–33 have been seen as genocide committed by Joseph Stalin‘s government. It has been estimated that between 3.3 and 3.9 million died in Ukraine and 2 million (40% of all Kazakhs) died in Kazakhstan.“
A review of history’s list of major famines is shocking to those who’ve never contemplated food; having never missed a meal. And why should they? After all, it has always been available…what could go wrong?
6 – Pivoting on Delusion, II
Another delusional data point is the assertion of “Leaders for Life.”
We have expected the Second Depression to be along shortly, ever since Chinese president Xi proclaimed himself to be a “leader for life.”
The American press didn’t use the occasion to be a “teachable moment” to any great extent. If they had, people would realize that president Xi is simply playing the same role that president Roosevelt occupied for America. Hitler, more grimly, was cut of the president for life cloth.
Our own version of “president for life” held the White House for three full terms and part of a fourth. He’s the reason we now have term limits. Thanks, democrats. That was Roosevelt.
7 – Jingoism and Small Minds
Socialist academics, busily licking their chops (as they seem to read history better than conservatives) have been planning for these times.
Unfortunately,, they’re not particularly inventive; witness their half-ass “Green New Deal.” Not that it’s bad, but with the global economy sliding into deep, deep Depression as the globalist corporate One World decomposes into regional states and blocks, any fool can see that down-sizing lifestyles (it’s what Depression DO) will solve lots of environmental issues.
Only idiots would be pandering environmental issues right now. Let’s see who survives, first, shall we? I mean 3-5-years out.
Put another way: When no one is working, where’s all this warming or climate change coming from? OK, except perhaps overtime at creamatoriums?
Americans forget it was our “president for life” who sold the first New Deal Here’s what the original New Deal was all about:
“The programs focused on what historians refer to as the “3 Rs”: relief for the unemployed and poor, recovery of the economy back to normal levels, and reform of the financial system to prevent a repeat depression. The New Deal produced a political realignment, making the Democrat Party the majority (as well as the party that held the White House for seven out of the nine presidential terms from 1933 to 1969) with its base in liberal ideas, the South, traditiona Democrats, big city machines and the newly empowered labor unions and non-whites and ethnic whites. The Republicans were split, with conservatives opposing the entire New Deal as hostile to business and economic growth and liberals in support.”
Truth is, the Constitutional basis of the New Deal always was dicey. But, it did the ONE THING that needed to be done prior to launching into World War II: It rebuilt American manufacturing. Infrastructure drives the futures and we haven’t been in that driver’s seat.
As for the present-day, watered down, false-hope pandering, bastardization of concept? You know, The Green New Deal? You’ll see how little this latter-day political marketing scam is when you read it’s agenda:
“The approach pushes for transitioning the United States to use 100% renewable, zero-emission energy sources, including investment into electric cars and high-speed rail systems, and implementing the “social cost of carbon” that was part of Obama administration’s plans for addressing climate change within 10 years. Besides increasing state-sponsored jobs, this Green New Deal is also aimed to address poverty by aiming much of the improvements in the “frontline and vulnerable communities” which include the poor and disadvantaged people. To gain additional support, the resolution includes calls for universal health care, increased minimum wages, and preventing monopolies.”
Wet dream stuff: Doesn’t feed, doesn’t heel. It’s merely a rehash of 88-year old consensus.
And so, a thoughtful student of Depression Economics (and long wave cycles) can judge the two pretty easily: The Roosevelt plans were both specific and measurable, they put people to work, and they provided for an obvious public need. New technology through the Rural Electrification program was expanded and although the budgets to get the job done were big – forcing inflation in the future – the people of that era understood finance arguably better than people today. Deficit spending was required, but not unsupportably.
The Green New Deal (GND) on the other hand is an agglomeration of left-wing wish list items. People spouting it properly sensed the time for a New Deal 2.0 was at hand, but specificity was *(and still is) lacking. The delusion that Modern Monetary Theory (.eg. making up money like Zimbabwe did) isn’t considered.
But, our currency is already debt-logged. It wasn’t last time. Last cycle’s answers are dead horses before the bell.
Personal Contexts and Action Plans
Imagine for a moment, that we could be – due to CV-19 – on the cusp of a massive decline both in population and social norms that have evolved over the years.
80 percent of the American economy is service-based while only 20- percent are needed to produce that we consume.
Yet the sham solutions, such as senator Markey(ist) and rep. Ocasio-Cortez are promoting misses the historical contexts pretty-much completely. If we’re working only half, climate drivers are halves, too.
Politics is a scam. The way out of depression is war and war is a racket, and Gen. Smedley Butler reminded. Google it.
The 100-Year Toaster Problem
Peoplenomics subscribers have a better handle on the problem than most, in that they already know we have a bigger problem than just “a repackaged” New Deal problem.
What COVID makes us consider is the whole notion of “Is it all about Money???”
The failure of humans – which we may be able to address in the coming Depression – is that we operate as stimulus-response critters. WIIFM – What’s In Ity For Me?
China is ahead of us, to an extent, in that they recognize that “social credits” may be a non-financial answer. But, being a communist, totalitarian government, we have 100% confidence that they, too, will miss the opportunity to “de-financialize.” Money matters to the CCP.
As a result, we’re hanging out in the woods expecting the following elements to appear shortly:
- CV-19 will continue to grow, perhaps into June and with it, the death toll will mount up.
- Markets will crumble as recovery hopes fade.
- Social distancing will both increase the return of America to the home & family on the one hand, while actually accomplishing much of what the political hacks are trying to get in Green New Deal: Recreation travel, commuting, reducing non-essential services, all that is coming… But to the digital insurgency, be careful what you wish for; you’re a class that’s never hand blistered hands from hard work. Arrogant, self-righteous young prick – still riding the greatness of a previous generation.
- As a result, the economy will continue to implode. As it does so, we will continue for a several months deeper into deflation and from there, perhaps by year-end, we will cycle into “hyper-inflation lite.”
America’s “New Peso”
Both of our crooked political parties are of such monstrous ego’s that mistakes can nevever be admitted. Not Trump, not Pelosi, not Schiff, not McConnell.
The one mistake of the previous Depression, long-ago forgotten in the wake of World War II, was the evil of interest compounding on the national debt and the hollowing-out of our nation’s money. I warned of this in 2001 when we still had 5% of of the dollar’s 1913 purchaisng power left. Today? We’re just about 3-1/2% now.
We have screwed the dollar, but the Virus is about to sort that out whether we like it, or not.
Why a New Peso here?
Imagine you took out a high-interest loan and it keeps compounding. At some point, no matter how hard you work, there is never any way to repay it. You can’t even pay the interest at some point. What do you do?
The solution well-implemented by Mexico in 1993-1996 was the repudiation of debt packed into their currency. Basically, Mexico had gotten into that unsustainable zone to where no matter how hard they worked (and the Mexican worker is admirably industrious!) there was no way they could ever get out of debt.
“Throughout most of the 20th century, the Mexican peso remained one of the more stable currencies in Latin America, since the economy did not experience periods of hyperinflation common to other countries in the region. However, after the oil crisis of the late 1970s, Mexico defaulted on its external debt in 1982, and as a result the country suffered a severe case of capital flight, followed by several years of inflation and devaluation, until a government economic strategy called the “Stability and Economic Growth Pact” (Pacto de estabilidad y crecimiento económico, PECE) was adopted under President Carlos Salinas. On January 1, 1993, the Bank of Mexico introduced a new currency, the nuevo peso (“new peso”, or MXN), written “N$” followed by the numerical amount. One new peso, or N$1.00, was equal to 1000 of the obsolete MXP pesos.
On January 1, 1996, the modifier nuevo was dropped from the name, and new coins and banknotes – identical in every respect to the 1993 issue, with the exception of the now absent word “nuevo” – were put into circulation. The ISO 4217 code, however, remained unchanged as MXN.
Thanks to the stability of the Mexican economy and the growth in foreign investment, the Mexican peso is now among the 15 most traded currency units.”
That dear reader is the big context of where we are, I believe, though I wish it weren’t so:
- A global economic collapse has been triggered by CV-19.
- Sexual mores are changing, the family is back.
- Collapse of the economy solved Green New Deal points.
- Food is the currency (along with water and a roof) that you need to secure above all else.
Within a year, we expect the dollar to be gone, crypto currencies banned,, and a kind of Virus-oriented “Victory Garden” will become critical to future life on Earth:
“In the war time governments encouraged people to plant victory gardens not only to supplement their rations but also to boost morale. George Washington Carver wrote an agricultural tract and promoted the idea of what he called a “Victory Garden”. They were used along with Rationing Stamps and Cards to reduce pressure on the public food supply. Besides indirectly aiding the war effort, these gardens were also considered a civil “morale booster” in that gardeners could feel empowered by their contribution of labor and rewarded by the produce grown. This made victory gardens a part of daily life on the home front.”
All the rest of it?
Mostly bullshit pandered by Blinders-on-Media which lacks both the non-corporate context as well as lessons of history and is therefore swayed by transitory political distractions.
If you aren’t putting in a garden, watching how to use cardboard as mulch on Youtube, and how to store food without power, you’re nailing your own coffin shut.
There are many things we can do, especially with time off: Prepare, think, garden, sprout, learn, and above all, embrace the change.
So we can stop making disposable, climate-wrecking products that rely on crooked economics. We might even get back to things like making 100-year toasters, ultra-light high mileage cars, and getting back to Nature.
Our problems on the Outside reflect our problems on the Inside.
I guess some things never change.
Write when you get
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