As I have been saying, to anyone who would listen, my preferred outlook is that we don’t have our economic collapse until we get out into the Q2-Q4 2017 area.
By then, any of the optimism about a new President and ways to keep the country moving forward will likely have worn off.
By then, it should be apparent that our GDP is not rising faster than the net compound interest on the Federal Debt which is around $19-trillion. $18.924 trillion, as of last Thursday…
By then, the effects of the huge influx of illegal aliens will be felt.
By then, the lack of breakthrough technologies will be apparent. There next “gotta have it” tech will be a place away from other humans…
By then, we will begin seeing more robots coming online to replace human labor. A good reality check is the 10 scariest robots in the world over here.
By then, we should see several more applications, along the lines of Tinder and Candy Crush, that are already changing the way we think.
By then, someone besides Ures truly will be pointing out that a growing fraction of humanity is going “off planet” for at least part of the day to work in the Virtual Realms.
So much so, that by then, we should have an app for everything.
The Pocket Version of UrbanSurvival
It goes something like this:
There are seven major domains of life and we can “size-up” the coming world, in a nutshell, this way:
Housing: Getting smaller. With commutes already gone to hell and work in Virtual Realms the number of companies with work-at-home (in the Realms) will be higher.
Food: Campbell Soup has announced plans to begin labeling U.S. goods for GMO content. This is already in place in most other countries. In 2017 we may pass the peak of corporate farming and begin the return to local…
Healthcare: Some portions of the ACA will have been changed – there are too many people who can’t afford it. Expect alternative (not-for-profit) healthcare like Samaritan Ministries to have a boom because they are not trying to make money off illness as much.
Transportation: New car sales will depend on the phrase “driverless- ready” or “highway mode” as initial driverless platforms come along. We’re planning to drive our old Lexus into the ground (5-10 more years) and save up for a compact driverless.
Communications: The cost of communications services should rise slower than most expenses but advertising density will likely increase and – if we have any kind of terror attack in the U.S. with WMD’s, expect a link to either torrent or other non-traditional web uses – and this could begin the internet licensing movement.
Environment: The debate over “global warming” will intensify. Look for atmospheric heaters to come back online to move things around. But decreasing solar output will likely continue to moderate worst-case alarmism.
Finance: Your standard of living will be down another 10% from where it is now. Smaller footprints for all consumer goods and perhaps even standardization of clothing will be arriving. With disposable spending down, there will be fewer things to buy. One or two per category…with 3rd and 4th-place producers folding due to the dominance of online retailers.
Then we have our “action words” that describe what we physically do in life:
Work: By 2017, the low in unemployment should be passed and rates heading up, again. Agriculture will experience the front edge of major drought – as we move back toward a normal el Nino position.
Workflow improvements will continue but with most healthcare and education already rolling or rolled into ERP programs, the flurry of high-paying software implementations will have peaked.
Play: By 2017 we should see a major new “play” evolve based on VR helmet or glasses technologies. This will be “played” in a special, but small, space and will be immersive. The next evolution of games will be getting rid of avatars and replacing them with players who will be “green-screened” into other player’s displays.
Sex: V.R. sex will become commonplace and will offer yet-another alternative to LBGT-QRST…. lifestyles. Tinder will be offering the hybrid hook-ups. Perhaps first as three-ways (one virtual) and then virtual only with a USB-3 series of plugin accessories…
Entertainment: We will begin to see a decline in lowest-common-denominator slop that passes as television. The reason transgender and gay is showing up in sitcoms today likely has less to do with a grand conspiracy to reduce repopulation, so much as HWood has simply run out of characters and plot lines that haven’t been done before. Remakes and sequels – forget how ridiculous they are – will come in droves.
Hobbies: As the Boomer generation begins to downsize even more seriously, a lot of hobbies will see declines. For example, ham radio (which I dearly love, don’t get me wrong) will begin a long-term decline because with the Virtual Realms, interest in anything other than fiber-bandwidth comms and 5-G will enter decline.
Similarly, hunting and fishing will fall further out of favor. Not so much on animal rights, but animal scarcity.
Learning: At some point the “textbook mafia” will have to lose to the :”open source textbooks”. Concurrent with that, we will see shorter-form novels as the time constraints on people become an increasing pressure. Traditional publishing will decline due to the eBook revolution and Kindle and the Android readers along with iPads will become the major reading platform.
For-profit schools, especially technical training, will be in decline due to pressure in the Higher Ed budget.
It will be replaced with “Learning guilds” – something we will get into in Peoplenomics tomorrow.
Birthing: A decline in birth rates will be revealed. The immigrants being forced into the U.S. population will provide the bulk of new family formations.
Dying: We should see another highly communicable disease pop up – one that can be spread by jet travel and has a high kill rate and low recovery rate. Conspiracy addicts would add a long incubation period.
As seniors begin moving to the nursing homes, look for a decline in suburban home prices with a stratification between rural/semi-rural (with land) and in-city to dominate.
Shopping: Traffic around malls will continue to decline at less-than-regional shopping malls. The largest will continue to expand, but that’s because they will become destinations even more so than now. The mall will be a water park, theme hotel, wide range of restaurants, ice skating rink, virtual sports (V-Golf is thriving) and shopping? Well, there’s some products that only translate so well into video (thinking shops like Victoria’s Secret and Lowes…)
That’s enough of a view for now…and I’m flexible on many of these predictions.
That’s how the Seven Domains and Nine Activities look this morning. The lack of confidence in government? The New Leader who can’t lead? The forming of the famine-inducting drought? The robotic replacement laws? The Massive tax on ownership debate? The merciless compounding of Federal Debt?
All that is coming, too. But not this morning.
If this was to be the REAL BIG COLLAPSE we should – by now – be hearing rumors and innuendo about who the Big Player in Trouble is. We’re short on that score.
So for the balance of this week, let’s see how high the bounce can go – into summer in my work.
But do try to remember, You Have Been Warned.
Write when you break-even,