Reader Note:  We turned the ad flow down so there should be fewer of those full page splash ads on phones.  Also, we got rid of some other problems so the site should be back to fast and stable now and loading fairly fast.  Let me know if you find anything broken!  I’ll skip the long discussion of render-blocking content security polices for another day, lol…


“Just what the hell is a “future vector?”

It’s when significant “information” about a possible future shows up…from more than once source…in a very short period of time.  And it just happened to me…

A bit of summer “woo-woo” – one of those stories that should be told (or read) while sitting around a campfire with a cool drink and stars out overhead…..

This particular episode began on Wednesday afternoon.  My “consigliere” called.  He was taking some time after prepping all afternoon for some state supreme court cases in his specialty (tax law).

We got to talking about the Webolution and while doing so, went on in some detail about where the militaries of the world are putting their money-down on future wars.

You know the Chinese now have two carriers – and the latest which came out a couple of months back in on sea trials…”

Yes, I’d been following that.

And you also know that even if they don’t get down the catapult technology, more and more countries are going to the “jump jets” and that means shorter range, but a much faster launch-time…”

“Uh huh…”  I knew that one, too.  Then he said some things that got the brain cells firing.

Thing is, China will probably not make the same mistake that Japan did in WW II.”

“Which was?”

“Japan could have won the Pacific side of the war IF they had just put landing parties ashore and taken Hawaii.  See, if they did that, we would not have that dandy mid-Pacific supply depot.  We would have had to launch against Japan from one of three places:  The Aleutians, the West Coast, or we would have launched from first Australia and then on up into the Philippines.  Would have been an awful mess…”

I quickly agreed.  “That that would have changed the nature of the Japanese wartime industry.  Because with such long patrol times for subs and surface ships to get on-station, the Allies shutting down the Japanese oil from south Asia would have vanished and that would have been all she wrote.”

True.  If they don’t make the same mistake this time, it will mean they should be about to start mass production of aircraft carriers to project power.  And then maybe a new type of landing craft…”

“Some to take Taiwan with, no doubt.  When they get to it.  In the meantime, though, they could take the US by just landing containerships at specific West Coast ports and coming ashore.  It would be hard to step them.  Toss in some air support around Long Beach and the Port of Los Angeles from, oh, Mexico is tight with Japan and could be a Fifth Column, and that would give us the “Man in the High Tower” kind of outcome just 80-years after the fact….”

“They wouldn’t use container ships.  Too easy to clog up the port with a few sunken ships.  Those channels are what?  120-feet deep, or so?  No, that’s where the “new landing craft” would come in.  You know, there weren’t LST’s and such before WW II – the terrain in Europe and the Pacific demanded a new and faster way to offload onto land to rapidly engage….Gotta remember the channels into the container ports are less than 120 feet deep so with not too much air power, they could be blocked with a sunken ship…”

I made a note to look at the Port of Los Angeles approach plates in the NOAA charts.  NOAA Chart 18751 with sounding in feet showed my consigliere (as usual) was spot-on:

From: http://www.charts.noaa.gov/PDFs/18751.pdf

Since my consigliere and I are both rather accomplished sailors, was came into focus for both of us was that any far-future Chinese landing on American soil would likely come with a new-type of landing craft – one that might be field-tested in Taiwan, and which would be able to cross an entire ocean and then come ashore in a meaningful way.

“How about they come in to British Columbia – they already are an occupying country of Vancouver, after all…”

The conversation went on from there and most days – with scores of such “deeply knowledge-based conversations” with sources all over – that would have been the end of it.

And it was….until Thursday morning in the pre-dawn hours.

An Echoing Post?

You see, that was when I looked at a post from Phil – a long-time reader in Austin.  You’ll understand why when you read it:

George,

Just had the most vivid dream in years.

Was in Alaska, in a small coastal community with industrial fishing infrastructure. Dark cloudy skies. Suddenly appearing on the shore: hundreds of large construction and utility type vehicles, guys in hard hats, a few people with bull horns telling us what to do. “Get inside, go nowhere, this is an emergency situation…” Walking down the shore to the building where my people are, I see even more equipment, hundreds of men, some with AK47, wading ashore, nobody in uniform except the “utility” garb, overalls and hard hats. A woman with a bullhorn explained again that we would need to stay inside while “the important work is done to prepare” for something.

At some point, maybe an hour later, I tried to walk out towards the shore again, which was just across the parking lot of the building, and was stopped immediately by armed men and told to go back. It was obvious some massive construction was taking place, they were already pouring concrete pillars that extended from shore into the water. Like some underpinnings of a giant ramp.

WWWIII felt very much like a reality. It was no civilian force swarming ashore to build something. The coveralls and white hard hats looked like costumes, the men looked military. The only woman was the bullhorn lady.

Phil”

There you have it:  From two distinctly different aspects of my life:  Both dealing with a “foreign force”  and a ‘coming shore’ and an occupation of American territory and within a total of 18-hours on the clock.

I don’t sit around thinking about this level of stuff all day.  Been working like crazy on the website and oh, so much more.  Writing, researching…but THIS?

Make of it what you will.

My sense is that in one of those “alternative futures” we talk about, China does decide to just let the middle of America “burn out” on its own.  But with lots of timber, who knows how much mineral resource and, oh year, isn’t there more oil up in the ANWAR?  Who’s to say China would take the calculated risk that outback Alaska is not worth Global Thermo Nuclear War over.

Sort of like the Russians when that ran that same calculus and (so far correctly) figured that the US would not go nuclear over their taking the Crimea.

Interpret as you will…just a damn interesting tale, to be sure.  Two water/war/ocean-origin “landings” over a very short period of time (less than 24-hours).  To my fragile tiny mind that just shouldn’t happen that-a-way….

Have a great weekend and do something nice for the boss (yourself), while you’re at it…

Write when you get rich (or the landing craft come ashore…)

George@ure.net

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