Coping: Prepping/Contingency Planning

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That?  We are in an interesting space – or will be in coming weeks.

We have an outlook for the market suggesting it’s possible, in late May, we may begin a nice rally.  From lower levels than now.  Problem is that the rally will end.  In fact, Zeus the Cat has a pool going for where it might stop late this summer.

While he expects the Dow to fall below 20,000 in the fall decline (Dow 19.855, write it down and remember this forecast is from a cat), the summer rally from the May lows, around Dow 22,870 should be enjoyable for bulls.  But that just “opens the box” on the pending American decline.  Globalism is ending.

(Continues below)

 

This won’t be the first reference we’ve made to Richard Heinberg’s book Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines, and I expect it won’t be the last.

But there is an evolving case in our financial models around here (not touched by feline paws) that says, in so many words) that “If we drop under 20,000 on the Dow this Fall, it could just be an uber-macro Wave 1 down.

I know that’s hard to fathom.  Just imagine what the Elliott wave implications are, for a moment.

For the sake of discussion, let’s say the cat is right about the projected fall lows.

That allows us to run an Elliott wave model that says “What if uber-wave 1 down (from 26,616.71) down to the low forecast by the cat were used as wave 1 down bounds?”

That would put the bottom of the Fifth Macro Down as high case  at 11,387.09 (like the .09 would matter?) and the mostly likely landing zone Dow 8,006.23.

People who insist on “buying the dips” on the way down will lose not only their shirts, but a lot more.

We kick around cheery outlooks like this generally on the Peoplenomics side.  Because to speak of such things publicly could scare a large number of sheep. Makes us look alarmist, too.

But, one of the ideas that peeks out from a rescan of Heinberg’s book is there may be no place to hide.

For example, he gets into the problems ahead for fisheries resource a bit (pg 91-92) and it’s remarkable for a nearly 10-year old book to be so useful in present-times.

The theme End of the Line is rattling around in my head a lot, here lately.  Try The End of the Line: How Overfishing Is Changing the World and What We Eat,  a 2006 book that is equally prescient (and this was before Fukushima!

Then load up on Barry C. Lynn’s tomb End of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of the Global Corporation.

What our models are suggesting is that the “new decline” – one that will be the super-grand-daddy of ’em all – may not come as a one-day affair.

The “Peak Everything” process is slow.

I brought up fishing because it’s easy to track the stairsteps down to into financial oblivion.

Imagine that on our next trip to Seattle, Elaine and I eat that last (or final tipping-point) order of fish & chips.

The following years would be marked with declines in the cod harvest (my order) and halibut (Elaine’s order).

Two or three bad years on the fishing grounds and the world begins to change.

High energy-consumption commercial fishing boat prices begin to fall.  Which no licensing is required on the “high seas” at the moment, we expect that international negotiations will be started in places like the UN.

Desperate global interests will duke it out, but with no “international navies” it will become a Super Powers issue.  China, having a serious interest will expand it’s influence – and that’s why they are island-building.

Ignoring the run for fish and chips, another year goes by with poor results.  The marine suppliers who have served the fleets will begin to close up shop and blow away.  The process has been slow, but unrelenting.

After that, maybe as little as two years, there will be layoffs by the gear makers.  Everything from foul weather gear to hydraulic winches to marine diesel engines and gear boxes.  Electronics will dwindle and more boats will be put on the market.

Noting the collapse, regulators will step in, though too late.  There’s no way to make enough fish for 8-billion people, which we’ll be sooner than later.

As the fisheries peak rolls forward and downhill, the nature of America’s waterfronts will begin to change.  You can already see it in places like Seattle.

Old-school restaurants, like Ivar’s Acres of Clams, will be among the few to survival.  North along the waterfront from there, all that will remain will be a nostalgic motif of imagery – more than substance.

You can count the fishing boats at Fisherman’s Wharf, too.  All around, the “monetizers” have sprung up, anxious to capitalize on people’s interest in health, good-eating fish.  But the appetite is more than that.  In fact, it’s about selling a memory as much as a meal.

And this is only one small segment of society.  The crews will decline, and their ranks will shrink.  With smaller crews, the Coast Guard might eventually have to lay off seaman licensing staff…you see how it propagates.

The main thing to keep in mind is that while Depressions have been fast-onset events in the past, much of that volatility has been the direct result of information asymmetry.

The Internet, it will turn out, is not likely to save us for any human economic folly.  But, because the information is so widely-spread and so quickly, people will react more quickly.  Paradoxically, this evens out the rate of decline.

Lynn and Heinberg are like touchstones around the office.  I look at the macro picture and the only question is “Will there be a sudden collapse, or does the world just ‘bleed out?'”

As it does, what it the right/proper roll of heads of families?

I think it’s to be putting together an “all hands” survival plan for the slow collapse scenario.

It’s one thing to have an earthquake, social disorder, EMP kind of plan, but the slow collapse model really seems to make the most sense.

A couple of articles I haven’t mentioned: “Robots could take over 38% of U.S. jobs within about 15 years, report says.”  Please note that this was a 2017 report, so down to 14-years.

Whack38% off the U.S. workforce and we have less than 100-million working to support services for 335-million.  Only way to do that is tax the bejezus out of everything.

Sure, we like tax cuts as much as the next family. But it will come at the horrible cost of eroding the Nation’s money, even more.  Prices will go up, a version of Weimar  “Hyperinflation Lite” becomes likely.  With that?  The gulf between the 1% and 99% will become even more stark.  And contentious.

This is likely to leave in much the same way as fishery declines have worked to decimate small coastal communities. A few big machines, then the downsizing that leads to increased “excess workers.”

You know, it’s hard to demand a higher wage when robotics and AI begin to move in.  There will be a definite deflationary impact as robots replace humans.

Done slowly?  I will save some of that for the subscriber side.  But please, think about the last fish and chips and then begin thinking about how to save your family if we really are on the edge of a century-long decline which will include a large population reduction.

It’s not a happy thought, but do kick it around. Then  ponder deeply the ramifications of what happens to “profit-based economics” when there’s none to be made.  Which is why the headlong rush is on right now to monetize everything.

It’s why gender, sexual orientation, political affiliation, weather, and even rain water run-off are being seized-upon for control and dominance of others.

The simple fact is, when the End of Expansion-Only Economics arrives, it will be a time of mass devastation.  Not just at the personal level, but for families, cities, states, and even whole nations.

Hell on Earth.

Heinberg and Lynn fall into that rarified class of “look-ahead” books that were seriously ahead of the times.  (I think of my own efforts in Broken Web).

It’s fairly common to be way right, but also way early.  1979 THE COMING REAL ESTATE CRASH Hardcover Book by CARDIFF & ENGLISH, for example, came how long ahead of the 2007-2009 event?

While it wasn’t a perfect outlook – in that they didn’t see the role of the serial-bubble Fed, and looked more at the eventual collapse of suburbs as unsupportable (and unaffordable) due to costs of things like energy and the intergenerational decline in purchasing power) they nevertheless got the Big Picture elements right.

Spend some time, now and then, reading books that look ahead a decade, or longer.  In them, you will find some very useful information on structuring your life (and those of the ones you love) to be Urban Survivors in the longer-term.

(Cheery today, huh?)

Ham Radio Note

Best ham radio operating guide I’ve seen in a while and one that most hams have somewhere on their to-do list, but somehow you never take take (or have) the time to actually ‘git’er done.’

It’s a list of all the two meter and 440 repeaters around the area – up to two counties away, or so.

I’m pretty sure that it will show up on the http://www.pacarc.org/ website. (It may be there and I’m  just half-blind…)  But, in the meantime, if you have a local ham club, local member Tom’s project is one of the most useful yet that can be cloned with local data everywhere.

It gives 10 counties worth of popular repeater frequencies.  In an emergency, it’d be a godsend.  Especially which printed and laminated so it would be useful in an emergency communications setting.

Also great to have in the car and for programming a new radio.  Fine job, and a sincere  “Atta-boy” to Tom for all the work on it.

There are far more detailed resources (like the ARRL National Repeater Directory) but the print in that is pretty small and as for outdoor use in the rain with heavy weather?  Uh…no thanks!

Great club project if your club doesn’t have a lot of useful information on it’s website.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

44 thoughts on “Coping: Prepping/Contingency Planning”

  1. CONTEST: DEFINE THAT WORD
    Today’s word is “The Realms”
    To enter, reply to this post.
    ie, “A place occupied by demons”

    Tuesday’ Winner – Al B – Crooked Hillary not jailed – The potential prosecutors want to live!

    Today’s winner will be announced next Thursday along with a new contest.

    • I want you to know I think all those people that were scheduled to be questioned for testimony or put on a witness stand had deep feelings of remorse. the fact that they were putting them on a stand to say something negative or to be questioned about their dear friends was enough to put them in a very deep state of depression, and nothing more. Those investigating them that were mugged and killed just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. A pure coincidence and nothing more than that.

  2. There is an ever-growing of man-made lake fish hatcheries to combat that problem because of the profit to be made there that’s why there are large greenhouses and under the greenhouses is Lakes of fish and under all different kinds of climate.

    So if one is enterprising that’s the way to go like they say a long time ago farming out west where the water table as sank will be an excellent place to put green houses with fish.

    Think as in living in the inner honycombs of the earth then the key to long term survival becomes evident evident

  3. Given enough time, every seer – including economists – will be right at some point. I’ve yet to see one that can forecast specific dates. I’d sooner rely on Carnac.

  4. George, I am not asking for investment advice but given your musings this morning and masked neo fascist’s running amok and one land one law decomposing before our eyes my question is; if a person was to have some excess fiat currency would it maybe be time to invest in some 1/4 ounce gold pieces? Do you see the price of gold coming down enough to warrant waiting? I think it is safe to say I have prepped the other essentials, well, I still need to get a solar power system put together.

    • There is no point in holding gold or silver as a prepper unless you are willing to use the violence necessary to protect it. The first time you try to use metal at a store, you will be followed home by someone and relieved of your holdings under threat of violence, or perhaps they will just shoot first and then loot.

  5. I experienced a traumatic incident last week when my car was stolen. Gone also is my ability to go anywhere since my city has nearly worthless public transit and I can’t afford Uber or taxis.

    It also brought into clear focus that I don’t have the “right stuff” to successfully survive a big crisis. I concluded that I can benefit from using what prepping supplies I have and not fret about what I will do. Fate will handle that for me.

    • I have been hearing that a lot lately, preppers giving up. I think being calm in the middle of a “storm” will be your greatest strength. You have thought about possibilities. You won’t be shocked no matter what happens. You also have knowledge that the majority of people lack. Prepping is not just food.

      • I would be shocked by any of a number of scenarios, were they to come to pass. However, as someone who’s “hoped for the best but prepared for the worst” for many years, the shock would pass after a few seconds or minutes, and the “disaster implementation” necessary to minimize the impact of, whatever, would kick in.

        Scripting general disaster scenarios and their mitigation, would help the non-prepper to “sleepwalk” through saving themselves and their SOs, until the shock wears off and their heads clear. Both FEMA and the American Red Cross have guides and checksheets that’ll help prepper and non-prepper alike…

      • Beautiful. It is this inner strength, fortitude, and inner resistance that will allow you to keep your senses. If you can’t keep your senses about you, what good are your preps?

    • Hey Cat,
      As fate would have it, my car hasn’t been driven in 10 months and apartment complex taped an note on it saying remove it or they’d tow and charge me since the Texas Inspection sticker is expired. So I was planning on spending Friday driving it to used dealerships along Hwy 80 here in Longview, TX and giving it to the first offer over the new battery and tires on it to drive it here from Dallas last July when I retired and moved to smaller digs. You can have it for free if you can get here this weekend. It’ll get you to the grocery store :)
      Haven’t used this email account in 5 years, so the public can have it– bobo_1111@yahoo.com >> send email to me and I’ll send you my phone# and you can ask what you need.
      PS. I’ve prepped so much I rent a car 6 days a year and Enterprise is cheaper than car insurance !!
      Bob O

  6. George

    “There’s no way to make enough fish for 8-billion people, which we’ll be sooner than later.”

    I spent a year as a consultant in the Louisiana Oil Patch. During that time I came to the realization that oil should not be used to power transportation but as the feed stock of artificial food.

    Until we develope Star Trek type Replicators we will need to break down crude oil into it’s raw hydrogen and carbon constituents and use this to literally make food.

    Of course this is only one source of these feed stock material. A broad array of sources and technologies can be pressed into generating material and energy to serve mankind.

    It will take long term thinking and not the foolishness like we see in the stock market to make it happen. When we hit the wall of no food we will change!

  7. “The Expanse”, originally on Syfy and now Netflix, shows Earth two centuries from now with 10 billion unemployed and living on subsistance, third world level income from government. It is an ugly picture and coming to Earth much sooner than two centuries.

    • I doubt it.

      Right now a billion or two people depend on food produced and delivered by a couple of countries with a food surplus, grains specifically.

      When the global economy blows up, that surplus will cease to exist. To say nothign of energy concerns which provide that sur

  8. I’m not sure if I should laugh or cry about this article I saw today on the website for FoxNews–“Major college installs ‘cry closet’ to help students handle final exams stress”. If our young people today need a “cry closet” for final exams then I think it is fair to say that in no way will they be able to survive what could be possibly coming. PS..Gotta go, I need to convert one of my existing closets into a “special” place for me ;) Have a great day!!

  10. Population reduction will happen where there are excess people, if it happens at all. China comes to mind, and they love fish. There is a mechanism for balance, scarcity. Where would it be felt most? Probably where there are billions of extra people, probably where there are slim means to produce extra when needed. Past civilisations probably succumbed to similar situations, such as when the Mayans disappeared. It can be therefore be quite local in effect. If a couple billion people suddenly starved to death, would that reset the balance, that’s the question.

  14. Just yesterday I was musing with a friend over lunch about the coming fourth turning and how the wife and I are in a unique position to build a survival infrastructure that may enable our children and grands to weather the crisis. While we are personally in good shape, the extended family is not.

    And then this post appears.

    The question that burns in my mind is: “Am I suffering from confirmation bias? Or is God telling us to build an ark?”

    It’s hard to know.

  15. I’d point out that a “mere” rise in grain prices triggered the “Arab Spring” revolts.

    Consider what happens when Western countries who have not experinced real widespread “want” in anyone’s lifetime start that process.

    It won’t be a steady slide into collapse but a series of stair steps marked with violence.

    • I’d point out the “Arab Spring” revolts occurred after 10-15 years of social programming and “education infiltration” by Soros groups, and “aid” provided to selected groups by USAID and UNESCO. BTW Soros groups are currently “educating” our college crop and providing social programming via its “Occupy,” BLM, and “white supremacist” initiatives, and our government is providing “aid” to selected groups.

      Based on prior history, I feel confident in predicting that it is gonna suck when OUR crops falter…

      • The USA is already a net importer of food and has been for years. The scenario you fear from faltering crops will more likely manifest from the simple devaluation of the dollar.

        Question you gotta ask, is that you would not accept Venezuelan Bolivars for anything you have of value because of their printing press antics. The USA is doing exactly the same thing, its just that nobody holding dollars wants to be the first to say that the USA “king” dollar has no clothes.

      • EE, we’re a net importer of variety, not quantity. CONUS can quite sufficiently well, feed itself (and a bunch of other folks) right now on what we grow, but it’d be a boring diet, compared to that to which the coasters and gourmets have become accustomed. However, given a repeat of 1934 (and two years either side), there would be a lot of grumpy people here. Grumpy “entitled” people with their heads pumped full of the hybrid Marxist, fascist crap TSG espouses, will make for a not very pleasant future. If you think it is bad in the USA now (and I know you do), imagine how exciting it would be, should famine hit The States…

  16. Bucky Fuller defined wealth as the number of days of forward survival. A human family with good dirt and gardening and canning skills, with a reliable water source, and a strong shelter are infinitely more wealthy than a cubicled corporate slave with ten figures in a bank thay can go poof in an instant. The truly wealthy know how to extract a life from their immediate surroundings. All other will starve to death in desperation.

  17. All of this will come to a head by 2025, and most certainly by 2050! NOT the global warming fraud, but the natural cycle of the sun called the grand solar minimum. We will be more concerned about growing food to eat and keeping warm. It will be tuff for the whole world, not just the USA. Get your kids and grandkids prepared! Time is getting short!! It’s already 2018, and the solar minimum has already started. Read your long past history to learn more, or check websites run by independent scientists for a true picture. Check out Oppenheimer Ranch project or Adapt 2030.

  20. With the $14 increase in FB stock today, Cramer was right last night. “CASH is Everything” & the FANG stocks have the cash & are using it to grow & develop & buy new technologies to make more cash.

  21. Just last week, we had a visit from our fellow microbiologists across the street. Their hospital lab is getting a machine which puts the patient specimens onto a culture plate, moves it to an incubator overnight, and reports negative patients results to the unit the next day. Using an Ipad and camera, you can tell the machine to do certain tasks while you are home in your pajamas.
    In the 1990’s we had a visit from one of the manufacturers, so this technology has had about 20 years to advance from what I’d seen before. Part of me thinks ‘oh good; I’ll just retire” BUT there wont be young workers to pay for my Social Security.

    • I hear you. Isn’t it funny how tech progresses so fast. when I did my ACLS and went to be an ekg tech the equipment was amazing and heavy.. now you can do it with your cell phone.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GHR-tWU_S4
      Its funny one of my many hats has been taking care of people. I had been doing that since I was fourteen. when I first started we didn’t get paid.. it was volunteer work the pastor got on the podium and would say mrs. smith is not feeling well and st. marys is looking for volunteers. in the middle eighties if there wasn’t enough volunteers to fill in.( by then we were getting paid I was making two dollars and a quarter part time) but the filler was volunteers from the prison farms and psyc hospital.the Healthcare industry has always been the land of perpetual short staffing many times you find yourself going from wing to wing only one person for the building. been there done that.. one pair of gloves on the floor even the surgeons seldom wore gloves.. needles and syringes were all reused.. we would use the old enclave daily. xrays.. we used the old dip and dunk processors now its digital.. cute story.. we were really short staffed. there were two of us for the building nights we worked alternating shifts .. a hundred patients.. every night we would go in and the DON would say.. god we just can’t get anyone to work no one wants to do this work.. so I would send people I knew and they would come back to me and say..you are crazy they aren’t hiring.. this went on I was tired.. lets face it..I was good at what I did but people can be demanding.. then my niece was born.. I am sitting in the waiting room.. and reading and it dawned on me.. look at all these people running around. personnel manages over a thousand employees not counting the staff for doctors and their offices and the offshoot clinics.. I had been here since the dawn of ages working either as a volunteer or as a paid force. ( I started at the hospital to work off a surgery debt. the trade was a year of my labor ).. how would they remember me I am nothing but a number. so I went in and applied for my job.. LOL LOL LOL they came back with well we aren’t hiring right now but we will put your application on file.. LOL LOL LOL LOL.. I got to work that night and the DON ( director of nurses) started in with how sorry she was that I had the building to myself they just can’t get anyone to come in and apply.. LOL LOL LOL that is when I said.. speaking of that.. well they hired someone the next day.. now that was back in 96.. my daughter was sick not to long ago I go in and they moved the wings around a little bit where the pulmonary wing was is now personnel some young kid comes out and asks me ( by name ) how are you doing.. can I help you.. sure asked where they moved the wing.. he directed me.. then told me where the coffee pot was… ok.. I did have to look.. do they have a sign saying beware smart Azz behind the desk.. because this kid was not even a twinkle in his mommy and daddys eyes when I pulled that stunt and he knew me by sight and name and that I love my coffee.

  22. George, thank you for your wisdom.
    I am someone who’s health has tap danced all over my finances -so free is all I can afford.
    As far as I see, you rank right up there with
    Marty Armstrong, who has been very accurate.
    May the God bless you in many and sundry ways!

    • I can relate happened to me to.. don’t feel bad.. there are very few who read this that will leave something behind.
      in over forty years of working caring for people almost everyone that is married ends up having to get a divorce so the spouse can exist. Medical expenses takes it all. Many services they won’t even think of doing unless you can plop down a healthy deposit.. a young lady friend of one of the kids got sick went in to the er.. they did some tests.. found out it was cancer.. but the good news was it was almost a hundred percent treatable if caught early.. she said when do we start.. when you drop off fifty grand.. her sister got a second mortgage on her home so she could get the treatments.
      http://www.cc.com/video-clips/cbbn22/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-third-world-health-care—knoxville–tennessee-edition

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