Coping: Market Turn Forecast 8-Years Ago

In the wake of the Las Vegas shooting last year I wrote a mighty long piece in which I not only chronicled the adventures of a hypothetical Deep State operation that I dubbed Directorate 153, but I also first mentioned the criticality of March 22.

The adventure – which I have clipped and posted from the original which is over here – is of interest because when I’m in my “automatic writing mode” some very strange things come out of my fingers.  My first novel, DreamOver, came mostly out of the “place,” for example.

So did the “hot date” for the market decline on March 22, first showing up 8 years ago…

(Continues below)

I will make this as seamless as possible:  Here’s how Oct. 6, 2017’s column continued discussing hypothetical models to clarify futures, but I want you to get some sense of how far back my “relationship” with March 22 goes…

Here’s how I framed it for subscribers in 2010 – and even today, I think it’s still a viable thought tool to toss into the inventory.  Along with Boolean logic and irrational numbers.

From Peoplenomics January 31, 2010:

The Directorate 153 metaphor is most useful in this regard, since its mission is not to conduct warfare or in any other way ‘get its hands dirty’.  Instead, its role is to ensure the continuity of governance at a global level and to do this, certain deft manipulations of circumstances to achieve desired outcomes may be required.

And now we get around to the point of this week’s report’s focus:  Since I’ve mentioned the curiously coincident timing of the 9/11 terror attacks as a possibly ‘social engineering’ project, let’s peak into a meeting between “Richard” who you’ll remember was hired in our 2004 report on hypothetical Directorate 153 activities and see what he and his staff may have planned for us.  The scene shifts to a corporate-looking conference room in a nondescript office building in Atlanta…

[later in that same FICTIONAL/THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK there is this:|]

Richard: “I don’t know how you figured a decline to 61.8% of the highest level. Here, let me throw something up from a paper I found on Google.  Ah…here it is… from David M. Rouse and Sheila S. Hemami at the Visual Communications Lab, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering up at Cornell University.  They write about “Quantifying the use of Structure in Cognition” and say…

“Modern algorithms that process images to be viewed by humans analyze the images strictly as signals, where processing is typically limited to the pixel and frequency domains. The continuum of visual processing by the human visual system (HVS) from signal analysis to cognition indicates that the signal-processing based model of the HVS could be extended to include some higher-level, structural processing.

A preliminary experiment was conducted to study the relative importance of structural (higher-level) and signal-based (lower-level) representations of natural images in a cognitive task. The results from this experiment suggest that signalbased representations are only meaningful to human observers when the proportion of high frequency content, which conveys structural information, exceeds a seemingly fixed proportion. This work investigates the results of this experiment towards the development of a rudimentary measure of visual entropy.”

“They didn’t get anywhere near that 38.2% (market) decline level used as the threshold for turning loose the 9/11 attacks.”

Staff Analyst:  “Agreed, but remember their work relates only to the simple act of visual recognition.  What we’re dealing with at a societal level is something much more complex than sitting down and looking at a few blurry pictures to see what the thresholds might be where something starts to make sense.  This is not “spot the blurry airplane” – this is hints and bits of wide dispersion data that doesn’t collapse into a single expression like “Depression 2.0!” without a lot of gestation time.  And repetition.  So what if a few early-adopters catch on?

“In my analysis of the proper moment to set loose the context-changing events, we have to construct a multivariate approach because we’re dealing with multiple nonhomogeneous sets.  In other words, a few technical analysts were going to see the Internet Bubble breakdown leading to a second Depression as soon as the Aggregate broke below about 10,250, or so.  But they aren’t enough to bother with since there are only maybe 10% of market participants who know how to play that game effectively.

Then as we broke down more, say to the first excursion under our threshold level, there was still a good chance that this would be only a normal retracement from a much larger rally.  But, where things got to end game for us – and thus we had  to implement the Distraction Option was when we dropped below 8,000 and that happened the week ending 8/31/2001 when  the index dropped to 7,852.65.  That, you’ll recall from going through the reader file, was when our then managing director green-lighted the towers project.

Frankly, we took a guess, and as it turns out it was a good one.  The papers on cognition points may work for small study groups, but what really matters is when an idea starts to go viral – and it looked (and still does, by the way) like a 38.2% decline from a significant top is when we arrive at the dangerous ‘point of recognition’ where we would have gone over the edge, so to speak.  Especially when we’ve had a couple of years to marginalize early adopters and dismiss as crazy, anyone who speaks to that which we want denied.”

Richard: “So where does that put us?  We will surely this year arrive at yet to another Depression recognition point and we’ll have to implement a bigger distraction than previously.  Don’t we still have some room to coast on the last one we implemented – when we played the terrorist card?”

Staff Analyst:  “We’d like to think so, but seems not.  You’ll see that Primary Wave 2 which was our bounce in the markets got us up to the Aggregate 11,309 range.  If we take that times our Fibonacci number, we have to make a decision soon, since at the current rate of decline, we will pass our threshold level about the week of March 22, this year.  You know what happens there: We either “go early” or “go late” depending on how you want to call it.

Richard:  “This running the world from the back room stuff sure isn’t easy, is it?”

Staff Analyst: “No, but neither is having the whole frigging world devolve into a second Global Depression with nukes getting on the loose, the breakdown of all civilization and basically throwing away 400-years of human progress, either.  That’s what we’re here to manage around.”

Richard:  “I talked to the head of Action Section – I know you’ve never met her, because that would make you too personally knowledgeable about what we do and how we do it – but she’s outlined a couple of ways we could play this.

Our first option would be to move preemptively with a biological weapon.  The way we would handle that would be dispersal right at the very end of the Winter Olympics in British Columbia, say around the 15th of February or maybe the 16th.”

Staff Analyst: “I’m not too keen on that, since we’d have to make the call on release well ahead of the actual drop of our timing model by more than a full month…”

Richard:  “Unfortunately, can’t be helped.  The way this will work is that we will incorporate much of what we learned from the Swine Flu exercise, you remember?  We set that off with a built-in ‘burn-out’ to see how propagation would work and to set up the response networks.

Remember, we turned it loose in January of 2009 and it didn’t make it to Mexico city until March 18th.  From there it took a month till April 14th before CDC confirmed a first case, and the second on April 17th, which is a whole month.  Even then the response took months and this time with a different strain a higher kill-rate will be built in.”

Staff Analyst:  “OK, I grant you that the timing would work out favorably.  I can almost see the headlines now:  Canadian Flu or Olympic Flu…going to make fine headlines.

Do we have a backup option?”

Richard: “We do. Action Section says we have a pretty good connection into the jihadists and we’ve got a couple of nuclear devices including that one we got from the US Air Force flight down at Barksdale in 2007.”

Staff Analyst:  “Been meaning to ask you…was the timing of the speculation on 11/9/2007 – as in 11/9 as a reverse of 9/11 purely coincidental?”

Richard: (laughs)  “Why of course it’s not coincidental.  Remember, one of our rules is that everything we do around here has to be hinted at…it’s one of the constraints imposed on us – has something to do with secret societies, ritual sacrifice, or some such.  Never been really clear on the why part, but does make what we do pretty graceful for those that see it.

The Board would prefer the nonnuclear option, however.”

Staff Analyst: “…because…??”

Richard:  “You know that one as well as me:  A nuclear attack by ‘terrorists’ on the US give the US a good scapegoat for the markets falling apart, but it has some obvious shortcomings.  Remember, we want to do more than cover for Wall Street and Fleet Street in this.  We need something that will be a global ‘reset’ for all players and one that won’t change things too much from a strategic balance standpoint.  In other words, a nuclear attack on the US would change the balance in the Middle East a fair bit, it wouldn’t do anything in places like Russia except maybe a few hundred thousand premature deaths from cancer, so instead we’d like to just have something that a failure or pseudo-failure of global trade could be blamed on.

This would also give more impetus for global governance which is our whole agenda anyway – keeping the major powers cooperating at some level to move in the direction of planetary government.”

Staff Analyst: “Speaking of which: Think the ET’s will ever let us go back to the moon?”

Richard:  “Hard telling. The peaceful ones have made it abundantly clear that before we will be allowed to get off planet in anything other than a purely exploratory way, we have to figure out a new form of social organization and that’s what we’re trying to do.  But it’s a long and difficult task.  We’ve got all these damn countries which don’t see it and we have all this leftover nationalist crap.

Fortunately, most humans are really stupid and don’t see what’s going on right before their eyes.  People just don’t want to see history for what it is…a set of conspiracies with history written by winners with agendas.

Directorate 153 is a thinking tool. That how we were using it almost 8-years ago.  Today, we still use it when events don’t seem to make sense.

Just as we’re fond of saying Everything’s a Business Model, we have another axiom:  Things Always Make Sense.  If you’re on the distro list.

We’re not.  We’s juss the wage-slaves, massah.

D153 thinking is giving yourself the power to write FICTION but in such a way that it smoothly incorporates all evolving FACTS.

Eventually we’ll know.  If you get it right enough?  Well, let’s just say I won’t be getting up and writing any more.

Thus, there are several Fibonacci numbers that come into view for the next Grand Distraction to maintain order.

Yelling “Fire!” in a theater packed with 7-billion people could get messy.

But since the date March 22 has been with me as significant and a possible turning point, the question is whether the close Thursday indicates there may be just “enough fact to my fiction” to make it…dare I say it?

Realistic.

Sure, we were very specific in our March 22 call for a serious break when I wrote of it in mid February.  But this….bubbling up into being…well, that’s the art right there.

To write as I did on February 12th (here):

“

Here’s how I framed it for subscribers in 2010 – and even today, I think it’s still a viable thought tool to toss into the inventory.  Along with Boolean logic and irrational numbers.”

That’s good…but that’s still only a 40-day look-ahead.  The March 22 turn…that’s been resonating 8-YEARS.  A high order of personal woo-woo.

Write when you get rich…we pocketed 3.6% for the day Thursday and called it good.

In our work – and that sense of things in the deep writing-state – there more – much more – to come.

George@ure.net